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Poll: How does the shutdown end?
Ends within 1 week; wall is funded
Ends within 1 week; wall is Not funded
Ends in 1 month; wall is funded
Ends in 1 month; wall is Not funded
Ends in 2-3 months; wall is funded
Ends in 2-3 months; wall is Not funded
Ends in 4-12 months; wall is funded
Ends in 4-12 months; wall is Not funded
Govt is shutdown until next election
Wall is decided based on a the outcome of a Congressional Cupcake Cooking Competition
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Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #1
Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
Just for fun - forget what SHOULD happen. Let's guess what WILL happen.

My guess is that this shutdown lasts for months. Here's why:

1) There's too few centrists any more who will cross party lines to get things done, so the party leaders must agree on a compromise.

2) I don't see a "3rd way" compromise on the Wall. It's either funded or it's not.

3) Both parties have boxed themselves into a corner with their base. How do Democrats tell their voters that they voted for funding for "state-sanctioned racism"? How does Trump tell his voters in 2020 that with Republicans in control of the entire government for his first 2 years he still couldn't Build That Wall?

4) Trump (and his supporters, and the Libertarian wing of the Republican party) thinks most of the furloughed workers should be laid off anyways. So extending the shutdown is a win-win for him.

5) Democrats want the government to open up, but they're betting that voters will blame Republicans for the shutdown (as they always have in the past).


My guess is that they eventually make a trade - construct the wall in exchange for one of the Democrats' priorities (perhaps the Dreamers?). But it will take months for us to get there.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2019 03:11 PM by Captain Bearcat.)
01-08-2019 02:43 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
I believe you need a link or at least a poll.
01-08-2019 02:49 PM
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bullet Online
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Post: #3
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
1 more month.
Trump gets $4 billion for the wall.
Dreamers get citizenship
They get some kind of infrastructure deal to show off to their constituents for about $15 billion.

Pelosi is kind of painting herself in the corner with this "immoral" business.
01-08-2019 02:55 PM
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200yrs2late Online
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RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
Trump wins, and by extension America wins.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2019 03:01 PM by 200yrs2late.)
01-08-2019 03:00 PM
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 02:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  1 more month.
Trump gets $4 billion for the wall.
Dreamers get citizenship
They get some kind of infrastructure deal to show off to their constituents for about $15 billion.

Pelosi is kind of painting herself in the corner with this "immoral" business.

If we do a deal on DACA, I want the full $25 billion that the dems previously agreed to.
01-08-2019 03:05 PM
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BobcatEngineer Online
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Post: #6
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 02:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  1 more month.
Trump gets $4 billion for the wall.
Dreamers get citizenship
They get some kind of infrastructure deal to show off to their constituents for about $15 billion.

Pelosi is kind of painting herself in the corner with this "immoral" business.

I honestly think this is most likely scenario.

Some folks on the left will be unhappy Dem leadership caved on wall funding. Folks on the right will be unhappy about the dreamer amnesty.
01-08-2019 03:11 PM
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EverRespect Online
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Post: #7
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
Trump is going to win. My guess is it will take 2-3 missed paychecks and a flurry of calls from creditors and mortgage holders. There is no major downside to building the wall. At worst, it doesn't work and it is a waste of $5B, a drop in the bucket. The hundreds of thousands of mostly democrats not getting paid will be yelling to just let him build the damn wall so we can go about our livelihood, pay our bills, and support our families. While we don't want the wall, it's existence does not affect us one way or the other, but this continued filibuster is going to ruin us.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2019 03:13 PM by EverRespect.)
01-08-2019 03:12 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 02:49 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I believe you need a link or at least a poll.

Done.

Although there's a lot of ways this could go, and it was tough to fit them into a poll.
01-08-2019 03:16 PM
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Claw Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
I think it is quite possible compromise legislation will pass WITHOUT WALL FUNDING and Trump will veto it.

I think that has to happen first before something like the original post eventually happens.

They will make Trump veto something first.
01-08-2019 03:16 PM
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pcm0103 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 03:16 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 02:49 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I believe you need a link or at least a poll.

Done.

Although there's a lot of ways this could go, and it was tough to fit them into a poll.

You might want to take off the "within 1 week" options as we are already over 2 weeks deep in the shutdown.
01-08-2019 03:18 PM
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BobcatEngineer Online
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Post: #11
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 03:18 PM)pcm0103 Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 03:16 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 02:49 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I believe you need a link or at least a poll.

Done.

Although there's a lot of ways this could go, and it was tough to fit them into a poll.

You might want to take off the "within 1 week" options as we are already over 2 weeks deep in the shutdown.

I think he means "within 1 week" of this posting.
01-08-2019 03:19 PM
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pcm0103 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 03:19 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 03:18 PM)pcm0103 Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 03:16 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 02:49 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I believe you need a link or at least a poll.

Done.

Although there's a lot of ways this could go, and it was tough to fit them into a poll.

You might want to take off the "within 1 week" options as we are already over 2 weeks deep in the shutdown.

I think he means "within 1 week" of this posting.

Gotcha
01-08-2019 03:20 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Online
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Post: #13
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 02:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  1 more month.
Trump gets $4 billion for the wall.
Dreamers get citizenship
They get some kind of infrastructure deal to show off to their constituents for about $15 billion.

Pelosi is kind of painting herself in the corner with this "immoral" business.

Way too dangerous. Next Dem President might use that to give 20 million more citizenship. Deferred action on Parents was a 4-4 split with SCOTUS so the lower court ruling stayed in place.
01-08-2019 03:33 PM
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Jugnaut Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 02:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  1 more month.
Trump gets $4 billion for the wall.
Dreamers get citizenship
They get some kind of infrastructure deal to show off to their constituents for about $15 billion.

Pelosi is kind of painting herself in the corner with this "immoral" business.

I think something along those lines, money for the wall but not the full amount, deal for legal status for Dreamers, and some other handout to Dems to get them to go along.
01-09-2019 10:14 AM
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solohawks Online
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Post: #15
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
I'm viewing this in the prism of a workers strike. Trump is managment and the Dems are the workers. Trump as management is not as negatively effected by a prolonged govt shutdown as the workers are. Eventually, the Dems will have to compromise if Trump holds firm and they cannot override his veto
01-09-2019 10:28 AM
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DaSaintFan Online
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Post: #16
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
I'm with Solo... Trump literally has the advantage here. He's already offered up DACA and DREAM 'compromises'. They'll try to string it out for a while.. I'll say early-mid February before the House agrees to some funding (maybe 2.5-3b?)
01-09-2019 04:14 PM
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200yrs2late Online
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Post: #17
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-09-2019 04:14 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  I'm with Solo... Trump literally has the advantage here. He's already offered up DACA and DREAM 'compromises'. They'll try to string it out for a while.. I'll say early-mid February before the House agrees to some funding (maybe 2.5-3b?)

Really what else can Trump offer up?

DACA
Dreamer compromise
Steel in place of concrete

Ladies and Gentlemen, your democrat leadership saying no to everything.
01-09-2019 04:49 PM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-08-2019 03:05 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(01-08-2019 02:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  1 more month.
Trump gets $4 billion for the wall.
Dreamers get citizenship
They get some kind of infrastructure deal to show off to their constituents for about $15 billion.

Pelosi is kind of painting herself in the corner with this "immoral" business.

If we do a deal on DACA, I want the full $25 billion that the dems previously agreed to.

that ship has sailed. At this point, Trump would take an appropriation of $1000 for 5 Lego kits and try and sell it as a win.
01-09-2019 09:03 PM
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hawghiggs Online
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Post: #19
RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
I don't want a wall built. It would end up as another government boondoggle. Plus, Why didn't the Republicans pass something about the wall the last two years?
01-09-2019 11:11 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: Predict the Outcome of the Shutdown!
(01-09-2019 11:11 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I don't want a wall built. It would end up as another government boondoggle. Plus, Why didn't the Republicans pass something about the wall the last two years?

Democrats blocked in senate.
01-10-2019 05:14 AM
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