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Lord Stanley Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-06-2019 02:51 PM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote:  and UMass still under dillusion they are a baskeball power and joining the MAC all sports would have hurt their bad basketball program.

who knows what might have been.............
01-07-2019 02:29 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #22
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:19 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  What's interesting is the total number of bids from each of those conferences since 2014 (year that the BE and AAC reformed):

A10: 6, 3, 3, 3, 3 = 18 total bids
AAC: 4, 2, 4, 2, 3 = 15 total bids
Big East: 4, 6, 5, 7, 6 = 28 total bids

Even taking away the unique six-bid year for the A10 in 2014, the A10 and AAC have had a relatively equal amount of bids between the two conferences (which is undoubtedly why the AAC needed to add Wichita State in 2017). Davidson and VCU will routinely compete for at-large (if not automatic) bids for the A10 in a given year, and recent years have shown that Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph and St. Bonaventure can grab an at-large as well too.

if you add in the 4 bids that Wichita had from the MVC it's 19-18 for the AAC.

Also, I would say that the A10 is not trending well at all....
Ken Pom conference ratings
2015 7 5.61
2016 8 5.48
2017 8 3.95
2018 10 1.28
2019 10 1.91

The 2019 rating obviously not done yet and could easily drop more....

Right now the A10 is closer to the Sun Belt than they are the AAC....

Also, the A10 has had the benefit of having bid thieves the last 2 years.

Finally the move to the NET is hurting the A10. St Bonaventure for instance last year doesn't get a bid based on where they were in Ken Pom.

The A10 and AAC are 2 ships going totally different paths.
AAC last 5 years
2015 9 3.43
2016 7 8.15
2017 7 5.90
2018 7 5.59
2019 7 6.58
01-07-2019 02:31 PM
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LostInSpace Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:19 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  What's interesting is the total number of bids from each of those conferences since 2014 (year that the BE and AAC reformed):

A10: 6, 3, 3, 3, 3 = 18 total bids
AAC: 4, 2, 4, 2, 3 = 15 total bids
Big East: 4, 6, 5, 7, 6 = 28 total bids

Even taking away the unique six-bid year for the A10 in 2014, the A10 and AAC have had a relatively equal amount of bids between the two conferences (which is undoubtedly why the AAC needed to add Wichita State in 2017). Davidson and VCU will routinely compete for at-large (if not automatic) bids for the A10 in a given year, and recent years have shown that Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph and St. Bonaventure can grab an at-large as well too.

This is Davidson’s fifth year in the A10. They’ve had one at-large so far and they are not going to get one this year. The A10 will most likely be a one bid conference this year.

With Temple and Xavier the A10 was all but guaranteed one at-large and more often than not two from those two teams. There isn’t one team in the current A10 that has ever achieved the type of prolonged success of Temple or Xavier. That’s why it’s transitioning from an annual multi-bid confence to a periodic multi-bid conference.

I want St. Joe’s and La Salle and by extension the A10 to do well, but the simple reality is that most of the A10 lacks the financial resources to compete with the AAC. The A10 won’t always be as awful as it is this year, but it’s behind the AAC and that fact isn’t going to change in the future. If anything the gap between the two conferences will increase.
01-07-2019 02:41 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #24
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:41 PM)LostInSpace Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 02:19 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  What's interesting is the total number of bids from each of those conferences since 2014 (year that the BE and AAC reformed):

A10: 6, 3, 3, 3, 3 = 18 total bids
AAC: 4, 2, 4, 2, 3 = 15 total bids
Big East: 4, 6, 5, 7, 6 = 28 total bids

Even taking away the unique six-bid year for the A10 in 2014, the A10 and AAC have had a relatively equal amount of bids between the two conferences (which is undoubtedly why the AAC needed to add Wichita State in 2017). Davidson and VCU will routinely compete for at-large (if not automatic) bids for the A10 in a given year, and recent years have shown that Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph and St. Bonaventure can grab an at-large as well too.

This is Davidson’s fifth year in the A10. They’ve had one at-large so far and they are not going to get one this year. The A10 will most likely be a one bid conference this year.

With Temple and Xavier the A10 was all but guaranteed one at-large and more often than not two from those two teams. There isn’t one team in the current A10 that has ever achieved the type of prolonged success of Temple or Xavier. That’s why it’s transitioning from an annual multi-bid confence to a periodic multi-bid conference.

I want St. Joe’s and La Salle and by extension the A10 to do well, but the simple reality is that most of the A10 lacks the financial resources to compete with the AAC. The A10 won’t always be as awful as it is this year, but it’s behind the AAC and that fact isn’t going to change in the future. If anything the gap between the two conferences will increase.
Yeah, the gap between the 2 has grown- especially these last 2 years since Wichita joined....
2015 -2.18
2016 +2.67
2017 +1.95
2018 +4.31
2019 +4.67

And the 2019 season was supposed to be a down year for the AAC. I think that's the scary thought for the A10. The AAC has elevated to being at worst a tweener conference.
01-07-2019 02:50 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 02:41 PM)LostInSpace Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 02:19 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  What's interesting is the total number of bids from each of those conferences since 2014 (year that the BE and AAC reformed):

A10: 6, 3, 3, 3, 3 = 18 total bids
AAC: 4, 2, 4, 2, 3 = 15 total bids
Big East: 4, 6, 5, 7, 6 = 28 total bids

Even taking away the unique six-bid year for the A10 in 2014, the A10 and AAC have had a relatively equal amount of bids between the two conferences (which is undoubtedly why the AAC needed to add Wichita State in 2017). Davidson and VCU will routinely compete for at-large (if not automatic) bids for the A10 in a given year, and recent years have shown that Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph and St. Bonaventure can grab an at-large as well too.

This is Davidson’s fifth year in the A10. They’ve had one at-large so far and they are not going to get one this year. The A10 will most likely be a one bid conference this year.

With Temple and Xavier the A10 was all but guaranteed one at-large and more often than not two from those two teams. There isn’t one team in the current A10 that has ever achieved the type of prolonged success of Temple or Xavier. That’s why it’s transitioning from an annual multi-bid confence to a periodic multi-bid conference.

I want St. Joe’s and La Salle and by extension the A10 to do well, but the simple reality is that most of the A10 lacks the financial resources to compete with the AAC. The A10 won’t always be as awful as it is this year, but it’s behind the AAC and that fact isn’t going to change in the future. If anything the gap between the two conferences will increase.
Yeah, the gap between the 2 has grown- especially these last 2 years since Wichita joined....
2015 -2.18
2016 +2.67
2017 +1.95
2018 +4.31
2019 +4.67

And the 2019 season was supposed to be a down year for the AAC. I think that's the scary thought for the A10. The AAC has elevated to being at worst a tweener conference.

The AAC is no question a power basketball conference. There are just more than 5 power leagues in basketball.

You've got probably 5-6 programs in the AAC capable of going very deep in the NCAA tournament on a consistent basis or even winning a national championship:

UConn
Cincy
Memphis
Wichita State
Houston
Temple
SMU
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2019 05:07 PM by NBPirate.)
01-07-2019 02:55 PM
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kreed5120 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
Once the AAC inks its new TV deal, the gap between the A10 & AAC will likely grow even more.
01-07-2019 03:13 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #27
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 03:13 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Once the AAC inks its new TV deal, the gap between the A10 & AAC will likely grow even more.

Totally agree. And the thing that we're starting to see already is programs like USF starting to take major steps forward. And not even started to see the real benefits of Hurley at UConn and Hardaway at Memphis. This conference next year could be much better quite frankly.
01-07-2019 03:20 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:55 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 02:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 02:41 PM)LostInSpace Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 02:19 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  What's interesting is the total number of bids from each of those conferences since 2014 (year that the BE and AAC reformed):

A10: 6, 3, 3, 3, 3 = 18 total bids
AAC: 4, 2, 4, 2, 3 = 15 total bids
Big East: 4, 6, 5, 7, 6 = 28 total bids

Even taking away the unique six-bid year for the A10 in 2014, the A10 and AAC have had a relatively equal amount of bids between the two conferences (which is undoubtedly why the AAC needed to add Wichita State in 2017). Davidson and VCU will routinely compete for at-large (if not automatic) bids for the A10 in a given year, and recent years have shown that Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph and St. Bonaventure can grab an at-large as well too.

This is Davidson’s fifth year in the A10. They’ve had one at-large so far and they are not going to get one this year. The A10 will most likely be a one bid conference this year.

With Temple and Xavier the A10 was all but guaranteed one at-large and more often than not two from those two teams. There isn’t one team in the current A10 that has ever achieved the type of prolonged success of Temple or Xavier. That’s why it’s transitioning from an annual multi-bid confence to a periodic multi-bid conference.

I want St. Joe’s and La Salle and by extension the A10 to do well, but the simple reality is that most of the A10 lacks the financial resources to compete with the AAC. The A10 won’t always be as awful as it is this year, but it’s behind the AAC and that fact isn’t going to change in the future. If anything the gap between the two conferences will increase.
Yeah, the gap between the 2 has grown- especially these last 2 years since Wichita joined....
2015 -2.18
2016 +2.67
2017 +1.95
2018 +4.31
2019 +4.67

And the 2019 season was supposed to be a down year for the AAC. I think that's the scary thought for the A10. The AAC has elevated to being at worst a tweener conference.

The AAC is no question a power basketball conference. There are just more than 5 power leagues in basketball.

You've got probably 5-6 programs in the AAC capable of going very deep in the NCAA tournament on a consistent basis or even winning a national championship:

UConn
Memphis
Wichita State
Houston
Temple
SMU

Cincinnati
01-07-2019 04:29 PM
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Mav Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
Wow. I knew the Summit was really bad this year, but that's sobering.
01-07-2019 05:57 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
on that front, what is up with South Dakota State? they have 6 losses, and 3 of the 6 are against teams in the current NET sub 195. 196 Purdue Ft Wayne, #239 Florida Gulf Coast, and #304 Tulane. Their BEST Win is a 5 point win over Grand Canyon.
01-07-2019 06:07 PM
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army56mike Offline
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
Atlantic Sun checks in at #19. Happy we are improving. That’s all I can ask for.04-cheers
01-07-2019 06:21 PM
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Mav Offline
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 06:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  on that front, what is up with South Dakota State? they have 6 losses, and 3 of the 6 are against teams in the current NET sub 195. 196 Purdue Ft Wayne, #239 Florida Gulf Coast, and #304 Tulane. Their BEST Win is a 5 point win over Grand Canyon.
They've relied on Mike Daum since he got there, but I don't think they have the depth they had in years past. Between Daum being a senior and NDSU being down, I'm kind of hoping this means the end of the Dakota States running the conference for a while.
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2019 07:00 PM by Mav.)
01-07-2019 06:59 PM
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 09:54 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  It's incredible that considering how bad the PAC has been this year, they are still only .02 points behind the AAC for the #6 spot.

and now that gap is up to .0027 points(it was .002 earlier not .02). That gap is going to continue to widen....

And tonight, the AAC should pass the Pac 12 in NET.. Right now only a 0.44 point difference. If not tonight- by the end of the weekend you would think....
01-10-2019 02:01 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:09 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 01:02 PM)LostInSpace Wrote:  
(01-07-2019 11:23 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  The MAC is having its best year in 20 years, perhaps ever. MAC rosters are loaded with seniors. I'm expecting a decline next year. This is happening at the same time the A-10 has hit a rough patch. The A-10 will likely never reach the level it was 5-10 years ago before it got poached, but it still has some pretty good college basketball brands. I fully expect over the next 10 years it will outperform the MAC and this is coming from someone who wants to see the MAC do well.

The A-10 will outperform the MAC over the long-term becuase its members have larger basketball budgets but the gap will be fairly small. The A-10 averaged 3.25 bids with Temple and Xavier in the conference. The A-10 will most likely be in the 1.5 - 1.75 bid range for the foreseeable future.

I fully agree with this assessment.

The A10 is just such a different conference than from what it was in the early 90's when Temple and UMass were the kingpins.

It was more like the AAC is today at that time with several schools that had FBS football that would be considered major schools. There also wasn't so many programs in it either to fight for recruits.

I'd say today its more like the MVC where it can assemble 3-4 really good coaches at the same time and become multibid that way. In fact I'd argue the A10 has successfully been that way for the last decade or so vs. true power programs like the American.
01-12-2019 02:50 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
Call me crazy , but I think the true measure of a power basketball conference is the average number of teams that go to the tournament yearly. Since the Big East/AAC split. I took the 5 year average. Personally, I think at minimum, a power conference should send 5 teams yearly. Using the five year average. Just using data and results, to me this is the simplest breakdown.


Power Conferences (5 or more average).
ACC 6 6 7 9 9 Average = 7
Big 12 7 7 7 6 7 Average = 7
Big East 4 6 5 7 6 Average = 6
Big Ten 6 7 7 7 4 Average = 6
Pac-12 6 4 7 4 3 Average = 5
SEC 3 5 3 5 8 Average = 5

Mid Major (2-4 Bids Yearly)
A10 6 3 3 3 3 Average = 4
American 4 2 4 2 3 Average = 3
Mountain 2 3 1 1 2 Average = 2
WCC 2 2 1 2 1 Average = 2
01-12-2019 10:16 PM
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-12-2019 10:16 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Call me crazy , but I think the true measure of a power basketball conference is the average number of teams that go to the tournament yearly. Since the Big East/AAC split. I took the 5 year average. Personally, I think at minimum, a power conference should send 5 teams yearly. Using the five year average. Just using data and results, to me this is the simplest breakdown.


Power Conferences (5 or more average).
ACC 6 6 7 9 9 Average = 7
Big 12 7 7 7 6 7 Average = 7
Big East 4 6 5 7 6 Average = 6
Big Ten 6 7 7 7 4 Average = 6
Pac-12 6 4 7 4 3 Average = 5
SEC 3 5 3 5 8 Average = 5

Mid Major (2-4 Bids Yearly)
A10 6 3 3 3 3 Average = 4
American 4 2 4 2 3 Average = 3
Mountain 2 3 1 1 2 Average = 2
WCC 2 2 1 2 1 Average = 2

the problem with that is two fold...
1- the A10 has that 6 bid year which was clearly an outlier.
2 the AAC has added Wichita that made the tourney in the 1st 4 years. If you're just looking at what the conferences are- you have to figure that in....

The AAC has clearly passed the A10.
01-12-2019 10:21 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-12-2019 10:16 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Call me crazy , but I think the true measure of a power basketball conference is the average number of teams that go to the tournament yearly. Since the Big East/AAC split. I took the 5 year average. Personally, I think at minimum, a power conference should send 5 teams yearly. Using the five year average. Just using data and results, to me this is the simplest breakdown.


Power Conferences (5 or more average).
ACC 6 6 7 9 9 Average = 7
Big 12 7 7 7 6 7 Average = 7
Big East 4 6 5 7 6 Average = 6
Big Ten 6 7 7 7 4 Average = 6
Pac-12 6 4 7 4 3 Average = 5
SEC 3 5 3 5 8 Average = 5

Mid Major (2-4 Bids Yearly)
A10 6 3 3 3 3 Average = 4
American 4 2 4 2 3 Average = 3
Mountain 2 3 1 1 2 Average = 2
WCC 2 2 1 2 1 Average = 2

Problem is the A10 is looking at its 2nd straight year outside the top 10.

And the Mountain West is 16th(!!!).

We have 25 mid-major conferences, 6 power conferences, and CUSA 1.0 reincarnated.
01-12-2019 11:00 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-12-2019 10:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-12-2019 10:16 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Call me crazy , but I think the true measure of a power basketball conference is the average number of teams that go to the tournament yearly. Since the Big East/AAC split. I took the 5 year average. Personally, I think at minimum, a power conference should send 5 teams yearly. Using the five year average. Just using data and results, to me this is the simplest breakdown.


Power Conferences (5 or more average).
ACC 6 6 7 9 9 Average = 7
Big 12 7 7 7 6 7 Average = 7
Big East 4 6 5 7 6 Average = 6
Big Ten 6 7 7 7 4 Average = 6
Pac-12 6 4 7 4 3 Average = 5
SEC 3 5 3 5 8 Average = 5

Mid Major (2-4 Bids Yearly)
A10 6 3 3 3 3 Average = 4
American 4 2 4 2 3 Average = 3
Mountain 2 3 1 1 2 Average = 2
WCC 2 2 1 2 1 Average = 2

the problem with that is two fold...
1- the A10 has that 6 bid year which was clearly an outlier.
2 the AAC has added Wichita that made the tourney in the 1st 4 years. If you're just looking at what the conferences are- you have to figure that in....

The AAC has clearly passed the A10.

I have no dogs in the A10 vs AAC who is the bigger and badder. Neither has proven themselves in the past 5 years. Disagree about having to say you need to include WSU, their MVC success has nothing to do with the AAC success. If anything, WSU did not live up to expectations last year for the AAC and looks unlikely to go to the tournament this year. No doubt the AAC is far superior to the MVC in basketball, but they should be. I think it shows more of WSU having to play in an overall better conference and now are an average fish in a medium pond.
01-12-2019 11:07 PM
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TampaTom Offline
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
After what I saw last night, American could be a 5-bid league this season if the standings shake out somewhat like this:

Houston
Cincinnati
Temple
UCF
Memphis/SMU/Tulsa (one of the three on the bubble)
01-13-2019 07:14 AM
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RE: Conference RPI Rankings
(01-07-2019 02:55 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  The AAC is no question a power basketball conference. There are just more than 5 power leagues in basketball.

The AAC *should* be a power-level conference on the court, it has the schools with the pedigrees to be so, but so far, it just hasn't been. It has not reached that potential the past 5 years.
01-13-2019 08:36 AM
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