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PAC Expansion Strategy
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Kittonhead Offline
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PAC Expansion Strategy
Both the PAC and XII have some question marks as it relates to the next round of TV deals. PAC has better academics but the XII right now has the greater athletic power.

If you were the PAC and wanted to expand with XII schools how would you do it?

-Offer 4 Texas schools again.

-Go with two Texas schools and two Oklahoma schools.

-Expand with Kansas and use them as a bargaining chip.

A KU/OU to the PAC combo isn't the most conventional way to raid the XII but it could be easier than taking Texas and needing to go to at least 16.

KU/OU would definitely be a shot in the arm in FB/BB for the PAC. Oklahoma will still be Oklahoma pumping out Heisman QBs and finishing in the Top 10. Kansas will still be Kansas in basketball.
01-04-2019 10:02 AM
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Big Frog II Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
Why would those schools take less TV money and be paying way more for travel?
01-04-2019 10:09 AM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
I think the only move the pac 12 has is offering KU,KSU, OU, and ok state and all or nothing package. It seems pretty clear Texas isn’t doing anything other than a reactionary move so offering them a spot doesn’t fly. By going after the 4 OKla and Kansas schools it brings a political angle to the table where nobody in those states gets left out. If those 4 accept than the pac 12 can offer Texas and Texas tech to jump to 18 and see if they bite.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 11:03 AM by bluesox.)
01-04-2019 11:02 AM
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Exclamation RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
The SEC strikes first and invites Oklahoma and Oklahoma State - 16 teams

PAC 12 invites Texas, Texas Tech, Hawaii, and Nevada - Name shortened to the PAC - 16 teams

ACC invites UCF, USF - Notre Dame stays Independent - 16 teams

Big Ten stays pat - 14 teams

Remainder of Big 12 merges with remainder of AAC - Big 16

Conference CUSA is pissed.

[i]Big 16 East[/i]

Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
Memphis
Navy
West Virginia
Temple
Tulane


[i]Big 16 West [/i]


Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
Kansas
Kansas State
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulsa
01-04-2019 11:15 AM
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YNot Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
The PAC definitely needs to look to the Central time zone. Take another shot at Texas. The idea to offer the package deal for the Oklahoma and Kansas schools is an interesting take.

If the PAC is unable to grab any Big 12 schools, Hawaii as a football-only member should be a back-up plan to consider.

1. Hawaii provides scheduling flexibility and opportunities for Week 0 games. With a few schools playing at Hawaii each year, the PAC could *own* Week 0 with 3 or 4 solid matchups - providing quality and distinct inventory which helps with media value.

2. A lot of PAC fan bases are weary from the late home kickoffs. Games that kickoff at 8:30 local time don't end until midnight or later. And, we're talking about less-committed fan bases to begin with. 10:30 pm ET is only 5:30pm Hawaii time. Hawaii could take some of the late kickoff burden from PAC teams, yet still provide decent PAC content for the media partners in the late-kickoff time slot.

3. Hawaii could be football only, which would justify a smaller payout.

4. The PAC can actually do better at landing Hawaii's top recruits. Over the last three recruiting classes, almost half of Hawaii's top-10 recruits have signed with schools outside of the PAC. 3 this year and 5 out of 10 for each of the previous 3 recruiting cycles. That's 18 of Hawaii's 40 best players the last 4 years that have signed elsewhere.

5. 12 teams with 9 conference games is great for playing cross-division conference mates frequently. However, it's horrible for win-loss records and rankings, especially when there is high parity. Most of your top teams all play each other such that even your better teams have more losses compared to conferences where, say, you have 14 teams with an 8-game schedule. It's hard to get the rankings when you go 7-2 in conference because you don't miss any of the good cross-division opponents.

For instance, the top 5 teams in the PAC 12 all played each other in 2018 regular season conference play - Washington, WSU, Utah, Stanford, and Oregon. The #6 team Arizona St. played 4 of the 5 teams ahead of them (missing only Wazzu). Of course, the PAC CCG was a rematch. Where would Utah have ranked if hadn't played Washington in the regular season, but instead had played Hawaii? They would have been 10-2 going into the CCG, possibly ranked *ahead* of Washington.

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, Ohio St. only played Purdue (6-7), Minnesota (7-6), and Nebraska (4-8) in the cross division and missed Northwestern and Wisconsin. Northwestern didn't have to play either Ohio St. or Penn St. in cross-division play. That leads to better win-loss records for your top teams and the CCG was not a rematch.

In the SEC, the top 3 teams from the East - Georgia, Kentucky, and Florida - all avoided Alabama and either #2 Texas A&M or #3 LSU in conference play. The top 2 teams in the SEC West - Alabama and Texas A&M - both avoided Georgia. That leads to better win-loss records for your top teams and the CCG was not a rematch.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 12:30 PM by YNot.)
01-04-2019 12:20 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 11:15 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  The SEC strikes first and invites Oklahoma and Oklahoma State - 16 teams

PAC 12 invites Texas, Texas Tech, Hawaii, and Nevada - Name shortened to the PAC - 16 teams

ACC invites UCF, USF - Notre Dame stays Independent - 16 teams

Big Ten stays pat - 14 teams

Remainder of Big 12 merges with remainder of AAC - Big 16

Conference CUSA is pissed.

Big 16 East

Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
Memphis
Navy
West Virginia
Temple
Tulane


Big 16 West


Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
Kansas
Kansas State
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Tulsa

Sports equivalent to "ATM Machine"
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 12:25 PM by BePcr07.)
01-04-2019 12:25 PM
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Pony94 Online
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Post: #7
RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
Interesting you think Texas wants to go west
01-04-2019 12:39 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 12:39 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Interesting you think Texas wants to go west

After the PAC-16 debacle a few years ago, it seemed pretty clear Texas did not want to go West. The PAC did error big time when it rejected the Oklahoma pair to get to 14 after the 16-school plan failed.
01-04-2019 12:43 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
Without Texas, expansion into the central time zone is not justified. A school needs to bring significantly more revenue than just themselves. OU probably does as well, even though the P12 would have to lower standards and take oSu as well. This assuming OU does not jump to the B1G or SEC, which are far more lucrative and easier travel - meaning if they are going to leave the B12 why would they choose the poor man's option over the rich man's?

The P12 needs to improve the 12 schools they have, fix their problems with the P12N, scheduling, and leadership (first move fire Larry Scott). Expansion is meaningless until you do that.

They could consider Gonzaga as a non-football member. I am not at all sure it would be worth breaking the mold of major research universities (at least they are extremely rigorous academically). But it would help basketball immediately. This would be a short term fix, and probably not desirable (what happens when Mark Few retires? Is it Saint Louis or DePaul all over again?). That is the only short term fix with any upside, and it's really for a basketball coach -- something that should be done by the existing schools (that is hire better coaches).

Long run demographics are in the P12 favor as the west is growing much faster than any other region in the nation. In my lifetime it has gone from 18% of the US population to 21%, and it will likely rise to 23% in the next few decades. That is real market power, much like the rise of the South. That growth is fastest in Nevada. Unfortunately the schools in Nevada rank in the middle of the Cal States in academics and research. If UNLV could be transformed from an academic joke into a serious R1 institution with selective admission the picture changes. That however is a few decades away (if ever). UC San Diego (no football) and UC Davis (FCS football) are the only two schools that seem plausible, and each would have to make a commitment to FBS football and toil successfully in the Mountain West for at a minimum a decade to build viability. San Diego State is a stretch for standards reasons (hard to see a CSU school accepted in the P12 unless and until there is a major change in the CSU charter -- there is no political will in California to do that). Colorado State and New Mexico are also sitting there as R1 schools, but neither adds a market or value as a football power.

That is the landscape. It is not promising for expansion. So fixes have to internal. 20 games in Basketball is a start. Hiring better coaches and improving revenue streams is a must. Competent leadership and reducing overhead of the P12 office is a must. These things can put $4-5M more per year in school budgets and that will pay off long term. Expansion does not solve any of these financial issues, unless you are talking Texas and Oklahoma (with division-less football reform desired by the ACC and B1G). But the chances that Texas or OU has any interest in the P12 without a major increase in revenue to be almost on par with the SEC and B1G is somewhere between improbable and impossible.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 03:21 PM by Stugray2.)
01-04-2019 01:08 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
Not for nothing, but the resultant divisions from a theoretical PAC 16 scenario are one of my randomly favorite possibilities in future realignment. Texahoma 4/Colorado/Utah/The Arizonas create a geographically and culturally coherent pseudoconference operating under a larger umbrella, and splitting off the original PAC 8 as their own division does the same. It works with the Kansases as well, I suppose, but to a much lesser extent.
01-04-2019 01:14 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 01:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Without Texas, expansion into the central time zone is not justified. A school needs to bring significantly more revenue than just themselves. OU probably does as well, even though the P12 would have to lower standards and take oSu as well. This assuming OU does not jump to the B1G or SEC, which are far more lucrative and easier travel - meaning if they are going to leave the B12 why would they choose the poor man's option over the rich man's?

The P12 needs to improve the 12 schools they have, fix their problems with the P12N, scheduling, and leadership (first move fire Larry Scott). Expansion is meaningless until you do that.

They could consider Gonzaga as a non-football member. I am not at all sure it would be worth breaking the mold of major research universities (at least they are extremely rigorous academically). But it would help basketball immediately. This would be a short term fix, and probably not desirable (what happens when Mark Few retires? Is it Saint Louis or DePaul all over again?). That is the only shirt term fix with any upside, and it's really for a basketball coach -- something that should be done by the existing schools (that is hire better coaches).

Long run demographics are in the P12 favor as the west is growing much faster than any other region in the nation. In my lifetime it has gone from 18% of the US population to 21%, and it will likely rise to 23% in the next few decades. That is real market power, much like the rise of the South. That growth is fastest in Nevada. Unfortunately the schools in Nevada rank in the middle of the Cal States in academics and research. If UNLV could be transformed from an academic joke into a serious R1 institution with selective admission the picture changes. That however is a few decades away (if ever). UC San Diego (no football) and UC Davis (FCS football) are the only two schools that seem plausible, and each would have to make a commitment to FBS football and toil successfully in the Mountain West for at a minimum a decade to build viability. San Diego State is a stretch for standards reasons (hard to see a CSU school accepted in the P12 unless and until there is a major change in the CSU charter -- there is no political will in California to do that). Colorado State and New Mexico are also sitting there as R1 schools, but neither adds a market or value as a football power.

That is the landscape. It is not promising for expansion. So fixes have to internal. 20 game sin Basketball is a start. Hiring better coaches and improving revenue streams is a must. Competent leadership and reducing overhead of the P12 office is a must. These things can put $4-5M more per year in school budgets and that will pay off long term. Expansion does not solve any of these financial issues, unless you are talking Texas and Oklahoma (with division-less football reform desired by the ACC and B1G). But the chances that Texas or OU has any interest in the P12 without a major increase in revenue to be almost on par with the SEC and B1G is somewhere between improbable and impossible.

That is the

While I'd love to see the Zags in the PAC, they are a Catholic school and essentially nextdoor neighbors to Washington St. I just don't seem them making the cut, unfortunately.
01-04-2019 01:15 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 01:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Without Texas, expansion into the central time zone is not justified. A school needs to bring significantly more revenue than just themselves. OU probably does as well, even though the P12 would have to lower standards and take oSu as well. This assuming OU does not jump to the B1G or SEC, which are far more lucrative and easier travel - meaning if they are going to leave the B12 why would they choose the poor man's option over the rich man's?

KU/OU combined to me have the impact of a Texas.

They definitely boost PAC basketball which is struggling.

OU is usually better than Texas, one of the best FB brands around.

I don't think Okie State and K-State need to be packaged along politically either when they will still be with Texas in a P5 conference. A P5 with plenty of depth to withstand the losses in FB and BB.

Texas can then make a push for bringing in UH to further regionalize the XII for travel. Go to 12 with UH, UM, UC, UCF that will make up for the losses.

07-coffee3
01-04-2019 01:18 PM
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
PAC should make a play for USF. We are on the west coast.... of Florida!
01-04-2019 01:20 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 01:14 PM)Bogg Wrote:  Not for nothing, but the resultant divisions from a theoretical PAC 16 scenario are one of my randomly favorite possibilities in future realignment. Texahoma 4/Colorado/Utah/The Arizonas create a geographically and culturally coherent pseudoconference operating under a larger umbrella, and splitting off the original PAC 8 as their own division does the same. It works with the Kansases as well, I suppose, but to a much lesser extent.

Colorado and Utah don't want a Texoma division.

14 with KU/OU would place them in the PAC South while Utah flips to the PAC North.

I also think KU wouldn't mind dropping to PAC football where its not as competitive as playing with the Texas schools. OU would like the PAC for recruiting student athletes.
01-04-2019 01:24 PM
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
The biggest hurdle to raiding the Big 12 is that many of the schools have very strong relationships with their in-state schools, and leaving them behind would be a disaster politically. The easiest and best way to raid the Big 12 would be to offer a package for the bounded schools; however, realignment has shown a strong resistance to doubling-up on markets, hence why no major movement has occurred since 2013. There almost needs to be an "agreement" among the other power conferences to take-in all of the members, in some form or another. Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas can choose which conference they wish to be in, IMO.
01-04-2019 01:26 PM
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Statefan Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
Texas is not going west, but they would be willing the bring the Pacific to them.

It boils down to what Stanford and USC want. They can fund anything they desire.

4 schools from the B12 is not enough. It needs to be six.

Using three divisions and a four team conference title playoff:

SW Division

Texas, TT, TCU, OU, OSU, Kansas

Mountain Division

Colorado, Utah, Arizona, ASU, Cal, UCLA

NW Division

Stanford, USC, Oregon, OSU, Washington, WSU

Then you have permant cross over with two so you get:

Texas/Cal/Stanford
OU/UCLA/USC
Kansas/Arizona/Washington
TT/ASU/WSU
OSU/Utah/Oregon State
TCU/Colorado/Oregon

Playing a 5-2-2 you would rotate the other ten over 5 years.

For Texas that means a schedule of OU, OSU, TT, TCU, Kansas, Cal, and Stanford, plus the rotation. That means a max of 2 games a year played in the PTZ because in the rotation 4 are MTZ and 6 are PTZ. You then tailor the non revenue sports to play more as semi - discrete divisions of six and limit the travel.

Then you make greater use of Las Vegas for tournaments which is inexpensive compared to SF.

It's not the most profit maximizing - that would be Texas/OU/Kansas/USC/Stanford/Colorado/UCLA/Oregon/Washington
01-04-2019 01:42 PM
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Exclamation RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 12:39 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Interesting you think Texas wants to go west

I don't think they want to go west. If OU and OSU jump then the conference will have to expand. It is more about being associated with SMU and Houston.
01-04-2019 01:49 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 01:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Without Texas, expansion into the central time zone is not justified. A school needs to bring significantly more revenue than just themselves. OU probably does as well, even though the P12 would have to lower standards and take oSu as well. This assuming OU does not jump to the B1G or SEC, which are far more lucrative and easier travel - meaning if they are going to leave the B12 why would they choose the poor man's option over the rich man's?

The P12 needs to improve the 12 schools they have, fix their problems with the P12N, scheduling, and leadership (first move fire Larry Scott). Expansion is meaningless until you do that.

They could consider Gonzaga as a non-football member. I am not at all sure it would be worth breaking the mold of major research universities (at least they are extremely rigorous academically). But it would help basketball immediately. This would be a short term fix, and probably not desirable (what happens when Mark Few retires? Is it Saint Louis or DePaul all over again?). That is the only short term fix with any upside, and it's really for a basketball coach -- something that should be done by the existing schools (that is hire better coaches).

Long run demographics are in the P12 favor as the west is growing much faster than any other region in the nation. In my lifetime it has gone from 18% of the US population to 21%, and it will likely rise to 23% in the next few decades. That is real market power, much like the rise of the South. That growth is fastest in Nevada. Unfortunately the schools in Nevada rank in the middle of the Cal States in academics and research. If UNLV could be transformed from an academic joke into a serious R1 institution with selective admission the picture changes. That however is a few decades away (if ever). UC San Diego (no football) and UC Davis (FCS football) are the only two schools that seem plausible, and each would have to make a commitment to FBS football and toil successfully in the Mountain West for at a minimum a decade to build viability. San Diego State is a stretch for standards reasons (hard to see a CSU school accepted in the P12 unless and until there is a major change in the CSU charter -- there is no political will in California to do that). Colorado State and New Mexico are also sitting there as R1 schools, but neither adds a market or value as a football power.

That is the landscape. It is not promising for expansion. So fixes have to internal. 20 games in Basketball is a start. Hiring better coaches and improving revenue streams is a must. Competent leadership and reducing overhead of the P12 office is a must. These things can put $4-5M more per year in school budgets and that will pay off long term. Expansion does not solve any of these financial issues, unless you are talking Texas and Oklahoma (with division-less football reform desired by the ACC and B1G). But the chances that Texas or OU has any interest in the P12 without a major increase in revenue to be almost on par with the SEC and B1G is somewhere between improbable and impossible.

The Pac12 is the least advantageous conference for the University of Texas to move to. There is honestly little motivation for Texas to move as long as Okalhoma remains in the Big12. If Oklahoma moves, every other P5 is a better option for UT than the Pac12. In fact, given UT has the Longhorm Network, Indy may even be better for UT than Pac12 membership.

My guess is Oklahoma and Texas stay right where they are.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 04:07 PM by Attackcoog.)
01-04-2019 04:06 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
The Big 12 schools are looking eastward, not west. PAC 12's only expansion options are Big Sky, MWC, UTEP, UTSA, and Houston. They are in a bind. UC-Davis does fit the PAC 12's academic profile. But, they are not strong yet. Boise State seems to be a rival to the PAC's Washington and Oregon schools for a while. Since the Idaho state's politicians strip the flagship status from Idaho, Boise State right now is being called Idaho's flagship university.
01-04-2019 05:00 PM
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RE: PAC Expansion Strategy
(01-04-2019 01:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Without Texas, expansion into the central time zone is not justified. A school needs to bring significantly more revenue than just themselves. OU probably does as well, even though the P12 would have to lower standards and take oSu as well. This assuming OU does not jump to the B1G or SEC, which are far more lucrative and easier travel - meaning if they are going to leave the B12 why would they choose the poor man's option over the rich man's?

The P12 needs to improve the 12 schools they have, fix their problems with the P12N, scheduling, and leadership (first move fire Larry Scott). Expansion is meaningless until you do that.

They could consider Gonzaga as a non-football member. I am not at all sure it would be worth breaking the mold of major research universities (at least they are extremely rigorous academically). But it would help basketball immediately. This would be a short term fix, and probably not desirable (what happens when Mark Few retires? Is it Saint Louis or DePaul all over again?). That is the only short term fix with any upside, and it's really for a basketball coach -- something that should be done by the existing schools (that is hire better coaches).

Long run demographics are in the P12 favor as the west is growing much faster than any other region in the nation. In my lifetime it has gone from 18% of the US population to 21%, and it will likely rise to 23% in the next few decades. That is real market power, much like the rise of the South. That growth is fastest in Nevada. Unfortunately the schools in Nevada rank in the middle of the Cal States in academics and research. If UNLV could be transformed from an academic joke into a serious R1 institution with selective admission the picture changes. That however is a few decades away (if ever). UC San Diego (no football) and UC Davis (FCS football) are the only two schools that seem plausible, and each would have to make a commitment to FBS football and toil successfully in the Mountain West for at a minimum a decade to build viability. San Diego State is a stretch for standards reasons (hard to see a CSU school accepted in the P12 unless and until there is a major change in the CSU charter -- there is no political will in California to do that). Colorado State and New Mexico are also sitting there as R1 schools, but neither adds a market or value as a football power.

That is the landscape. It is not promising for expansion. So fixes have to internal. 20 games in Basketball is a start. Hiring better coaches and improving revenue streams is a must. Competent leadership and reducing overhead of the P12 office is a must. These things can put $4-5M more per year in school budgets and that will pay off long term. Expansion does not solve any of these financial issues, unless you are talking Texas and Oklahoma (with division-less football reform desired by the ACC and B1G). But the chances that Texas or OU has any interest in the P12 without a major increase in revenue to be almost on par with the SEC and B1G is somewhere between improbable and impossible.

Once dismissed as 'Tumbleweed Tech,' UNLV joins the ranks of top-tier research universities
https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-unl...34ZEMKTpL8

Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education
Mountain West Conference Universities classified as
"R1: Doctoral Universities – Highest Research Activity"
Colorado State University
University of Hawaii at Manoa
University of New Mexico
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
University of Nevada-Reno

Mountain West Conference Universities classified as
"R2: Doctoral Universities – Higher Research Activity"
San Diego State University
Boise State University
Utah State University
University of Wyoming

Mountain West Conference Universities classified as
"R3: Doctoral Universities – Moderate Research Activity"
California State University-Fresno

List of research universities in the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re...ted_States
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 05:57 PM by joeben69.)
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