They have 2 tier 1 wins, both away from home in San Francisco and Syracuse.

What they do have is 9 wins away from home, triple what Marquette has. The OOC schedule for Marquette was WAY too home cooked.

frankly- the rest of the Big East teams are right where they should be in the NET. Maybe Nova could be a shade higher, but 2 of their 5 conference opponents are 1-4 in the conference so far and they did have 4 OOC losses.

Seton Hall really is pretty binary. If they can get to 18 wins they figure to have a good shot, and 19 and they should get in. But anything else, and they're in deep trouble, no matter the rating....

Interesting to look at the AP Top-25 and NET differences.

Tennessee (AP #1, NET #4)
Virginia (AP #3, NET# 1)
Marquette (AP #12, NET #21)
Buffalo (AP #15, NET #10)
Houston (AP #17, NET #7)
Nevada (AP #7, NET #22)

And these top-20 NET teams are all unranked. Seems like the pollsters don't align with the computers.

Nebraska (NET #13)
Purdue (NET #15)
Wisconsin (#17 NET)

(01-22-2019 11:12 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Interesting to look at the AP Top-25 and NET differences.

Tennessee (AP #1, NET #4)
Virginia (AP #3, NET# 1)
Marquette (AP #12, NET #21)
Buffalo (AP #15, NET #10)
Houston (AP #17, NET #7)
Nevada (AP #7, NET #22)

And these top-20 NET teams are all unranked. Seems like the pollsters don't align with the computers.

Nebraska (NET #13)
Purdue (NET #15)
Wisconsin (#17 NET)

a lot of times they never did mesh with the RPI either....

(01-22-2019 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 11:12 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Interesting to look at the AP Top-25 and NET differences.

Tennessee (AP #1, NET #4)
Virginia (AP #3, NET# 1)
Marquette (AP #12, NET #21)
Buffalo (AP #15, NET #10)
Houston (AP #17, NET #7)
Nevada (AP #7, NET #22)

And these top-20 NET teams are all unranked. Seems like the pollsters don't align with the computers.

Nebraska (NET #13)
Purdue (NET #15)
Wisconsin (#17 NET)

a lot of times they never did mesh with the RPI either....

And RPI was a flawed system too.

(01-22-2019 12:24 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 11:12 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Interesting to look at the AP Top-25 and NET differences.

Tennessee (AP #1, NET #4)
Virginia (AP #3, NET# 1)
Marquette (AP #12, NET #21)
Buffalo (AP #15, NET #10)
Houston (AP #17, NET #7)
Nevada (AP #7, NET #22)

And these top-20 NET teams are all unranked. Seems like the pollsters don't align with the computers.

Nebraska (NET #13)
Purdue (NET #15)
Wisconsin (#17 NET)

a lot of times they never did mesh with the RPI either....

And RPI was a flawed system too.

I'd take things that don't measure reputation over the human polls any time....

I mean right now lets take Nevada. Who exactly have they beaten this year? Absolutely no one. Best win is @ Fresno St. Yeah, color me unimpressed....

Sorry but we're entering the age of advanced metrics. You can't just slide by barely beating teams like what Seton Hall has done this year. You aren't going to get credit for just playing tough teams like what Creighton has done.

so looking at NET's from start of conference play to now:
Dec 28/yesterday
Marquette 12/21 -9
St John's 26/38 -12
Villanova 35/24 +11
Butler 39/47 -8
Creighton 49/62 -13
Seton Hall 59/56 +3
Providence 72/80 -8
Xavier 82/78 +4
DePaul 106/95 +11
Georgetown 133/107 +26
league 61.3/60.8 +0.5
The league has improved, but where it's improved isn't all that meaningful.... Georgetown up 26 great.
but top 5 teams-
before conference play- 34.5
as of now- 37.2
top 6 teams-
before conference play- 36.67
as of today- 41.33
bottom 4 teams-
before conference play- 98.25
as of today- 90.00

It seems like the NET is pretty circular when you get into conference play. Much tougher to have huge improvements in conference play via NET than in RPI.

Dec 28/today
Marquette 12/19 -7
St John's 26/49 -23
Villanova 35/21 +14
Butler 39/50 -11
Creighton 49/58 -9
Seton Hall 59/64 -5
Providence 72/73 -1
Xavier 82/83 -1
DePaul 106/102 +4
Georgetown 133/88 +45
league 61.3/60.7 +0.6

this rotation some huge games
19 Marquette @ 50 Butler
73 Providence @ 64 Seton Hall
21 Villanova @ 102 DePaul
49 St John's @ 58 Creighton

83 Xavier @ 88 Georgetown

Huge games for Seton Hall and Creighton- have to protect home court. St John's close to a must win I think as well... Big Chance for Butler I think.

So it's interesting. NCAA released conference ratings sheets today for the NET and on these they had the raw NET ratings...
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Sta....%2027.pdf
19 Marquette 6.8762
21 Villanova 6.8117
49 St John's 6.0340
50 Butler 6.0116
58 Creighton 5.9199
64 Seton Hall 5.8002
73 Providence 5.6712
83 Xavier 5.5325
88 Georgetown 5.5101
102 DePaul 5.3638

ratings for
#30 Iowa 6.5507(tier 1 home)
#50 Butler 6.0156 (tier 1 neutral)
#75 USC 5.6290(tier 1 away, tier 2 home)
#100 San Diego 5.3799 (tier 2 neutral)
#135 Ga Southern 5.0578 (tier 2 away)
#160 NJIT 4.6421(tier 3 home)
#200 Fairleigh Dickinson 4.2120 (tier 3 neutral)
#240 High Point 3.8657 (tier 3 away)

last time they released this report they didn't have this info on it. Also they had OOC RPI on it and regular RPI on it, which they've removed....

Dec 28/today's ratings-
Marquette 12/18 -6
St John's 26/45 -19
Villanova 35/20 +15
Butler 39/55 -16
Creighton 49/64 -15
Seton Hall 59/68 -9
Providence 72/79 -7
Xavier 82/86 -4
DePaul 106/104 +2
Georgetown 133/82 +51
league 61.3/62.1 -0.8

in that group next to the top 2 teams- teams 3-7- all of them gone way down. -19,-16,-15,-9,-7...

so they released the conference NET's again with the actual ratings.... thru yesterday's action...
19 Marquette 6.8762 --- 18 6.8912 +1 +.0150
21 Villanova 6.8117 --- 19 6.8135 +2 +.0018
49 St John's 6.0340 --- 45 6.1464 +4 +.1124
50 Butler 6.0116 --- 55 5.8900 -5 -.1216
58 Creighton 5.9199 --- 58 5.8468 0 -.0731
64 Seton Hall 5.8002 -- 67 5.7193 -3 -.0809
73 Providence 5.6712 -- 81 5.5609 -8 -.1103
83 Xavier 5.5325 --- 92 5.4038 -9 -.1287
88 Georgetown 5.5101 -- 82 5.5561 +6 +.0460
102 DePaul 5.3638 ---102 5.3343 0 -.0295

1st numbers are last week, 2nd numbers are this week, and then the differences....

for the big numbers
30- 6.4374 (Kansas St)
50- 6.0075 (Liberty)
75- 5.6538 (UConn)
100- 5.3454 (Penn)

Stever... still thinking 4 will get in. 5, I agree is a stretch (would need something to happen in the BET), 6 is out of the question. too much cannibalism in 3-10. What do you think?

(02-05-2019 01:21 PM)novachap Wrote:  Stever... still thinking 4 will get in. 5, I agree is a stretch (would need something to happen in the BET), 6 is out of the question. too much cannibalism in 3-10. What do you think?

I think the problem is that with everyone 4-6 and needing bare minimum 9-9- and with all the games left with each other- going 5-3 the rest of the way is going to be tough. I think we're going to see a LOT of 8-10 teams and with how OOC play went, that's not going to be good enough. The ONLY one who has a remote chance of getting in at 8-10 is Seton Hall I feel. I think 4 probably gets in 70% chance. But I think 3 is definitely more in play now than ever before.

Can't have any more weeks like last week where only teams to go undefeated for the week were Nova and Marquette.

Dec 28/today's ratings-
Marquette 12/28 -16
St John's 26/72 -46
Villanova 35/25 +10
Butler 39/64 -25
Creighton 49/52 -3
Seton Hall 59/59 0
Providence 72/69 +3
Xavier 82/70 +12
DePaul 106/102 +4
Georgetown 133/82 +51
league 61.3/62.3 -1.0

It's going to be really interesting to see if St John's gets into the tourney with a 72 NET.