You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

That being said, I think even with Moore, Murphy, Peterson, and QMB (and Martin and Adams) we’ll be in the mid teens in terms of wins next season.

Gotta “get old and stay old.”

(01-04-2019 11:35 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

Kind of bleak.

I guess the other side of that coin is that anybody we retain is not a good player.

I respectfully disagree with both sides of the coin.

In Mullins' case, he is in the engineering division, so maybe he will have extra incentive to stay.

(01-04-2019 11:35 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

That being said, I think even with Moore, Murphy, Peterson, and QMB (and Martin and Adams) we’ll be in the mid teens in terms of wins next season.

Gotta “get old and stay old.”

Seems like a joke but...

I think Osborne was always looking for an out. Hunter decided he didn’t want to “play school” anymore.

This will be the first actual test of retaining a class. You’d think with the development guys have shown everyone would want to stick around and see what the staff can get out of them (look at Rob this year).

(01-04-2019 11:53 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 11:35 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

That being said, I think even with Moore, Murphy, Peterson, and QMB (and Martin and Adams) we’ll be in the mid teens in terms of wins next season.

Gotta “get old and stay old.”

Seems like a joke but...

I think Osborne was always looking for an out. Hunter decided he didn’t want to “play school” anymore.

This will be the first actual test of retaining a class. You’d think with the development guys have shown everyone would want to stick around and see what the staff can get out of them (look at Rob this year).

I mean it’s not really a joke. With regard to Osborne, if he was always looking for an out, he had a commitable offer from Seton Hall, which would’ve given him the Big East exposure.So why’d he come here in the first place? There had to have been something that appealed to him that he felt like Rice didn’t meet his expectations on... Najja Hunter didn’t want to play school, but neither did Miles Lester (in a totally different way). Going a year back, Koulechov was one of Pera’s guys and Pera wasn’t able to get him to stick either (I have no ill will toward Egor, but I’m just saying).

Look, I want to like Pera (as I don’t think he’s a tampering snake like Rhoades) and am mildly encouraged by some of the games this season but what happens this spring with regard to transfers is really going to tell the tale for me.

(01-04-2019 12:16 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  .. what happens this spring with regard to transfers is really going to tell the tale for me.

And for all of us. Let's just see what happens, who, if anybody, leaves, for where, and why.

(01-04-2019 12:16 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 11:53 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 11:35 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

That being said, I think even with Moore, Murphy, Peterson, and QMB (and Martin and Adams) we’ll be in the mid teens in terms of wins next season.

Gotta “get old and stay old.”

Seems like a joke but...

I think Osborne was always looking for an out. Hunter decided he didn’t want to “play school” anymore.

This will be the first actual test of retaining a class. You’d think with the development guys have shown everyone would want to stick around and see what the staff can get out of them (look at Rob this year).

I mean it’s not really a joke. With regard to Osborne, if he was always looking for an out, he had a commitable offer from Seton Hall, which would’ve given him the Big East exposure.So why’d he come here in the first place? There had to have been something that appealed to him that he felt like Rice didn’t meet his expectations on... Najja Hunter didn’t want to play school, but neither did Miles Lester (in a totally different way). Going a year back, Koulechov was one of Pera’s guys and Pera wasn’t able to get him to stick either (I have no ill will toward Egor, but I’m just saying).

Look, I want to like Pera (as I don’t think he’s a tampering snake like Rhoades) and am mildly encouraged by some of the games this season but what happens this spring with regard to transfers is really going to tell the tale for me.

Koulechov leaving made sense - didn't have to sit out a year and Rice doesn't really offer great 1-yr programs that are easy to complete. I'm not sure any coach could have convinced him to stay unless we were looking at a for sure tournament appearance.

We're just going to have to see if guys are willing to deal with the smaller crowds in return for not sitting a year and either riding the bench or getting reduced minutes at another school. Few of our transfers have ever had an impact at their other university. Cashaw is barely seeing playing time for Creighton this year. Averaging just over 10 minutes per game.

(01-04-2019 12:43 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Few of our transfers have ever had an impact at their other university. Cashaw is barely seeing playing time for Creighton this year. Averaging just over 10 minutes per game.

Kazemi, Koulechov, and Ennis were all pretty good after transferring, but I understand your general point.

(01-04-2019 12:56 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 12:43 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Few of our transfers have ever had an impact at their other university. Cashaw is barely seeing playing time for Creighton this year. Averaging just over 10 minutes per game.

Kazemi, Koulechov, and Ennis were all pretty good after transferring, but I understand your general point.

Yep - it isn't to say you can't compete, but too many people have an outsized sense of worth. We've had probably 20+ defactions since they started under Braun, right?

(01-04-2019 12:56 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 12:43 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Few of our transfers have ever had an impact at their other university. Cashaw is barely seeing playing time for Creighton this year. Averaging just over 10 minutes per game.

Kazemi, Koulechov, and Ennis were all pretty good after transferring, but I understand your general point.

Evans also is doing pretty well. His numbers are down a little, but some might be attributable to injuries/team support. He's still the leading scorer on VCU's team.

(01-04-2019 01:05 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 12:56 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 12:43 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Few of our transfers have ever had an impact at their other university. Cashaw is barely seeing playing time for Creighton this year. Averaging just over 10 minutes per game.

Kazemi, Koulechov, and Ennis were all pretty good after transferring, but I understand your general point.

Yep - it isn't to say you can't compete, but too many people have an outsized sense of worth. We've had probably 20+ defections since they started under Braun, right?

According to my statistics/memory, Coach Braun had a total of 15 players leave while he was at Rice. Coach Rhoades presided over 12 defections in his 3 years and Pera has witnessed 6 players leave since he was made head coach.

(01-04-2019 11:25 AM)gsloth Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 08:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  12 seems like a stretch to me just because of how the schedule is set up. I'll stick with my prediction of 10 wins.

Of the remaining games, here's how I view them.

Best Hopes of a Win
Jan. 24 vs. Middle Tennessee State (they're quite a bit down this season)
Jan. 31 at Charlotte (most CUSA fans seem to think they're the worst team in the conference)
The two home games we get when they announce the final 4 games of the season

Possible Wins
The next 3 games (home vs La Tech, and then at UTSA and UTEP); Feb. 7 vs. Western Kentucky (they seem to be up and down but when they're up, they're pretty good), and maybe one of the games at Florida. Probably the opening game of the conference tournament too.

Likely Losses
Everything else

It's still early though and things could change, especially if some other conference teams get some key injuries. It looks like ODU already is going through some significant injuries.

Going back to Massey (for easy lookup), MTSU is a decent win chance (58%), at Charlotte is essentially a push (49%), and the next highest chance is actually hosting UAB (36%), the only other scheduled game with a better than 1 in 3 chance of winning. At UTEP is 33%.

This is a young team, without a true PG or much interior depth, so there are going to be ups and downs. USM's ranking fell 39 spots in Massey with yesterday's results (while Rice climbed 9), so if Rice continues to be this competitive, then more unexpected wins may come. But I still expect ups and down in performance.

Massey's expected wins remaining is 3.31, which isn't too shabby (compared to what I was thinking a few weeks ago). That puts double digit wins on the season within reach, considering pod scheduling still remains. And who knows - maybe 12 wins isn't so outrageous in that context.

(As for that assertion on 20 wins next year? Rice has done that twice in 25 years, or 3 times in over 60 years, so let's maybe temper things a bit, until they prove things. Not off the table, as owl95 stated - sure, it's a possibility. But wow, that's a big jump - and I know Rhoades had that jump from 12 to 20 in his third season.)

I would not have thought USM was a winnable game given the difference in rankings, but we did it. Pod scheduling is really going to help us and I do see the team continuing to improve. As for the 20 wins, I thought we've done it 3 times in the last ~30-ish years. The year we choked our NCAA bid(Brent Scott's senior year) at A&M we had 20 wins, I'm going to assume one of the Mike Harris NIT teams had 20 wins, and of course recently the last Rhoades team. I feel like this team if it stays together and assuming some good recruiting on the freshman side again is also capable of the same 12 to 20 jump in wins as that Rhoades team, but I agree a lot would have to go right for that to happen. I'm just saying I think it's not off the table based on what I have seen from this team.

I would not have thought USM was a winnable game given the difference in rankings, but we did it. Pod scheduling is really going to help us and I do see the team continuing to improve. As for the 20 wins, I thought we've done it 3 times in the last ~30-ish years. The year we choked our NCAA bid(Brent Scott's senior year) at A&M we had 20 wins, I'm going to assume one of the Mike Harris NIT teams had 20 wins, and of course recently the last Rhoades team. I feel like this team if it stays together and assuming some good recruiting on the freshman side again is also capable of the same 12 to 20 jump in wins as that Rhoades team, but I agree a lot would have to go right for that to happen. I'm just saying I think it's not off the table based on what I have seen from this team.
[/quote]

The year (1992-93) we squandered the SWC regular season title (and likely NCAA bid) by closing out the season with a loss to A&M ... that regrettable performance was at home. Although we finished 11-3 in the SWC, our overall record was 18-10. We won 20 the year before, however. We also won 20+ in 2003-04, and in the last Rhodes season.

(01-04-2019 11:35 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

That being said, I think even with Moore, Murphy, Peterson, and QMB (and Martin and Adams) we’ll be in the mid teens in terms of wins next season.

Gotta “get old and stay old.”

Good grief....Last year basically never happened since those players we “recruited” weren’t really. They had an opening on “their dance card” and we needed a dance partner for 1season. I mentioned to Owl95 at the game that I wouldn’t be surprised if the staff wasn’t unhappy with the transfers. As pointed out a few times the staff had talked about this year’s group from the time they were first targeted and constantly once they committed.

(01-04-2019 10:59 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  

(01-04-2019 11:35 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You have to assume we’ll lose Mullins after this season because this staff has shown no ability to retain good players...

That being said, I think even with Moore, Murphy, Peterson, and QMB (and Martin and Adams) we’ll be in the mid teens in terms of wins next season.

Gotta “get old and stay old.”

Good grief....Last year basically never happened since those players we “recruited” weren’t really. They had an opening on “their dance card” and we needed a dance partner for 1season. I mentioned to Owl95 at the game that I wouldn’t be surprised if the staff wasn’t unhappy with the transfers. As pointed out a few times the staff had talked about this year’s group from the time they were first targeted and constantly once they committed.

Not sure how you can fault people for being skeptical. First, the assertion that our class of 2017 recruits was an open dance card situation is not correct (if you’re referring to those recruits’ lack of options, other than Lester). Hunter and Osborne each had other scholarship offers and were clearly valued players, at least per recruiting ratings. Second, we’ve had players leave pretty much every year in the Rhoades / Pera eras, with the last two offseasons being most notable. This staff needs to prove it can retain all / almost all our returning impact players if they want to have any chance of being here for the long term and, so far, they haven’t done that.

I don't fault people for being skeptical. I fault them for their timing. We have the best win we've had under Pera, and this thread disintegrates into this tangent. I just only hope the players don't ever come to this site (or really any athlete in any sport at Rice).

Good luck Rice today against Louisiana Tech. That would be another unexpected win.

(01-05-2019 07:27 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I don't fault people for being skeptical. I fault them for their timing. We have the best win we've had under Pera, and this thread disintegrates into this tangent. I just only hope the players don't ever come to this site (or really any athlete in any sport at Rice).

Good luck Rice today against Louisiana Tech. That would be another unexpected win.

I’m sorry for having it devolve. I was happy with the win. That said, when people start throwing around 20 wins for next year, I think it’s important to address the elephant in the room! That’s all.

(01-05-2019 10:25 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(01-05-2019 07:27 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I don't fault people for being skeptical. I fault them for their timing. We have the best win we've had under Pera, and this thread disintegrates into this tangent. I just only hope the players don't ever come to this site (or really any athlete in any sport at Rice).

Good luck Rice today against Louisiana Tech. That would be another unexpected win.

I’m sorry for having it devolve. I was happy with the win. That said, when people start throwing around 20 wins for next year, I think it’s important to address the elephant in the room! That’s all.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic. Optimism does not need dousing.

(01-05-2019 11:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(01-05-2019 10:25 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(01-05-2019 07:27 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I don't fault people for being skeptical. I fault them for their timing. We have the best win we've had under Pera, and this thread disintegrates into this tangent. I just only hope the players don't ever come to this site (or really any athlete in any sport at Rice).

Good luck Rice today against Louisiana Tech. That would be another unexpected win.

I’m sorry for having it devolve. I was happy with the win. That said, when people start throwing around 20 wins for next year, I think it’s important to address the elephant in the room! That’s all.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic. Optimism does not need dousing.

The Mullins comment pre-dated my comment about 20 wins. It is absolutely fair to be worried about transfers in the offseason, but let's cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, I am interested in seeing how this team and the young talent continue to develop. I want to see how good they can be by the end of the season.

One thing I will fault Rhoades for in my observation is that once he got Evans and Egor, it seemed like developing the other players dropped off his priorities vs riding his horses hard to as many wins as possible that year. Which is fine if he was going to stay around, but he didn't and then he took the best talent with him, so that's how we wound up here. I am hoping, with no other information, that Pera is looking to build for more long term success.