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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 09:56 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:21 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:16 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  Washington only lost by 5 to Ohio St. who is better than LSU.

Despite the final score, that game was not even competitive. OSU was up 28-3 going into the 4th quarter. Someone chimed in earlier that LSU took their foot of the gas---- if LSU took their foot of the gas, OSU got out of the car entirely.

You AAC people really are homers. I've got nothing for or against the Pac and AAC. Yes, Ohio St. looked like a distinctly better team, but LSU looked vastly better than UCF. UCF had trouble getting a pass off. UW outgained Ohio St. 444-364. LSU outgained UCF 555-250. Washington did better against a better team than UCF did.

UCF kept the game close despite losing its star QB and playing a RS freshman with 3 games experience. Thats the reason we coudnt pass the ball. We are a significantly weaker team without a decent qb. So everyone needs to stop with the nonsense that UCF cant compete with top teams. Its one loss to a top 10 team by one score. How does that prove we dont belong? Everyone treats UCF more harshly than other schools. Every other top team (besides Alabama and clemson) lost a game and most werent to a top 10 team by a score.

They're "G5" so the assumption is that they can't compete. If they do compete, then the rationalizations start.

[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=9264828]
01-04-2019 10:09 AM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 10:09 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:56 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:21 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:16 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Despite the final score, that game was not even competitive. OSU was up 28-3 going into the 4th quarter. Someone chimed in earlier that LSU took their foot of the gas---- if LSU took their foot of the gas, OSU got out of the car entirely.

You AAC people really are homers. I've got nothing for or against the Pac and AAC. Yes, Ohio St. looked like a distinctly better team, but LSU looked vastly better than UCF. UCF had trouble getting a pass off. UW outgained Ohio St. 444-364. LSU outgained UCF 555-250. Washington did better against a better team than UCF did.

UCF kept the game close despite losing its star QB and playing a RS freshman with 3 games experience. Thats the reason we coudnt pass the ball. We are a significantly weaker team without a decent qb. So everyone needs to stop with the nonsense that UCF cant compete with top teams. Its one loss to a top 10 team by one score. How does that prove we dont belong? Everyone treats UCF more harshly than other schools. Every other top team (besides Alabama and clemson) lost a game and most werent to a top 10 team by a score.

They're "G5" so the assumption is that they can't compete. If they do compete, then the rationalizations start.

[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=9264828]

In what sense am I moving the goal posts? The whole argument is that UCF was outmanned and the game wasn't close. The score shows otherwise. That's besides the fact that last year UCF was in a similar game and won.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 10:37 AM by NIU007.)
01-04-2019 10:35 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Final Rankings?
I didn't say you were the one moving the goal posts
01-04-2019 10:37 AM
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natibeast21 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Final Rankings?
1) Alabama/Clemson
1) Alabama/Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Ohio State
5) LSU
6) Notre Dame
7) UCF
8) Georgia
9) Texas
10) Florida
11) Washington
12) Washington St.
13) Army
14) Michigan
15) Kentucky
16) Fresno St.
17) Syracuse
18) Texas A&M
19) Cincinnati
20) UAB
21) Utah State
22) Utah
23) Northwestern
24) Penn State
25) Mississippi St.
01-04-2019 10:53 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 10:53 AM)natibeast21 Wrote:  1) Alabama/Clemson
1) Alabama/Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Ohio State
5) LSU
6) Notre Dame
7) UCF
8) Georgia
9) Texas
10) Florida
11) Washington
12) Washington St.
13) Army
14) Michigan
15) Kentucky
16) Fresno St.
17) Syracuse
18) Texas A&M
19) Cincinnati
20) UAB
21) Utah State
22) Utah
23) Northwestern
24) Penn State
25) Mississippi St.

Florida isn't remaining the same as they were going into the bowl season.
01-04-2019 11:06 AM
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Yosef Himself Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Final Rankings?
1) Alabama/Clemson
1) Alabama/Clemson
3) Ohio State
4) Oklahoma
5) LSU
6) Notre Dame
7) UCF
8) Texas
9) Georgia
10) Florida
11) Washington
12) Washington St.
13) Army
14) Michigan
15) Kentucky
16) Fresno St.
17) Syracuse
18) Texas A&M
19) Cincinnati
20) Utah State
21) Appalachian State
22) Utah
23) Northwestern
24) Penn State
25) Mississippi St.
01-04-2019 11:17 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Final Rankings?
Some folks around here aren't thinking clearly. E.g., going in to the bowls, Army was #23 in the AP poll and Kentucky was #16.

Kentucky beats #12 Penn State while Army beats unranked Houston, and yet several posters have Army jumping over Kentucky?

01-wingedeagle01-wingedeagle01-wingedeagle


The SEC is going to finish with 5 teams in the top 15. Not sure when that last happened.
01-04-2019 01:36 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 09:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The game was a statistical rout, only fluke/lucky breaks for UCF kept it within reason on the scoreboard. It was total LSU domination.

And according to ESPN's game tracker, UCF's chances to win when down 40-24 was 99.7%. After UCF scored the two-pointer to make it 40-32, it was 99.4%. So yes, that's garbage time. LSU's chance to win was above 94% the entire 4th quarter.

And btw, LSU only had one drive where they "moved the ball between the 20s" and didn't score.

and I'm sure ESPN's game tracker was influenced by their pregame notions of both teams....

My understanding of the game tracker % is that it is a statistical model based on what has happened to other teams in the past in the same situation. That is, if team X has the ball first and 10 on its own 20, up by 10, with 3 minutes to go, and the GT says they have a 98% chance to win, that's because in the past, 98% of all teams in that situation have won. It's all math, has nothing to do with subjective pregame notions.
01-04-2019 01:40 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 01:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The game was a statistical rout, only fluke/lucky breaks for UCF kept it within reason on the scoreboard. It was total LSU domination.

And according to ESPN's game tracker, UCF's chances to win when down 40-24 was 99.7%. After UCF scored the two-pointer to make it 40-32, it was 99.4%. So yes, that's garbage time. LSU's chance to win was above 94% the entire 4th quarter.

And btw, LSU only had one drive where they "moved the ball between the 20s" and didn't score.

and I'm sure ESPN's game tracker was influenced by their pregame notions of both teams....

My understanding of the game tracker % is that it is a statistical model based on what has happened to other teams in the past in the same situation. That is, if team X has the ball first and 10 on its own 20, up by 10, with 3 minutes to go, and the GT says they have a 98% chance to win, that's because in the past, 98% of all teams in that situation have won. It's all math, has nothing to do with subjective pregame notions.

when the game kicked off by their probability, LSU was a 70% favorite. so no, it wasn't objective at all.....
01-04-2019 01:48 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 09:21 AM)Jugnaut Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:16 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:00 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  I get a huge chuckle out of someone crapping on UCF because of their conference but including a five loss PAC 12 school in their top 25. I doubt Utah, Washington, Washington State or anyone else in that conference for that matter could have fared any better against LSU.

Washington only lost by 5 to Ohio St. who is better than LSU.

Despite the final score, that game was not even competitive. OSU was up 28-3 going into the 4th quarter. Someone chimed in earlier that LSU took their foot of the gas---- if LSU took their foot of the gas, OSU got out of the car entirely.

You AAC people really are homers. I've got nothing for or against the Pac and AAC. Yes, Ohio St. looked like a distinctly better team, but LSU looked vastly better than UCF. UCF had trouble getting a pass off. UW outgained Ohio St. 444-364. LSU outgained UCF 555-250. Washington did better against a better team than UCF did.

UCF kept the game close despite losing its star QB and playing a RS freshman with 3 games experience. Thats the reason we coudnt pass the ball. We are a significantly weaker team without a decent qb. So everyone needs to stop with the nonsense that UCF cant compete with top teams.

03-lmfao

Mack isn't a decent QB? Wasn't he the MVP of the AAC title game, with like 350 passing yards, no picks, and 4 rushing touchdowns as well? He had as good a game then Milton had all year.

But then gets obliterated by an LSU defense missing its entire secondary. 03-lmfao

There's zero reason to think Milton would have done any better. All his stats were put up against bad teams. UCF can't compete with top teams.
01-04-2019 01:55 PM
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Post: #71
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 01:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Some folks around here aren't thinking clearly. E.g., going in to the bowls, Army was #23 in the AP poll and Kentucky was #16.

Kentucky beats #12 Penn State while Army beats unranked Houston, and yet several posters have Army jumping over Kentucky?

01-wingedeagle01-wingedeagle01-wingedeagle


The SEC is going to finish with 5 teams in the top 15. Not sure when that last happened.

Army did win by 56.

And the people are not saying if it is their opinion or if it is their prediction. It would be pretty unlikely as a prediction, but Army did open some eyes. They only lost to OU by 7 and their other loss was the 1st game of the season to Duke.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 03:15 PM by bullet.)
01-04-2019 03:14 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Final Rankings?
I could see Army finishing about 20th. I would not be upset by that. They had a good year.
01-04-2019 03:16 PM
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DBSUC1982 Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-03-2019 07:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:55 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:32 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  UCF came back in garbage time? It was one TD and 2-pt conversion and that put them within one score. If they recovered the onside kick they still had more than 2 minutes to tie it up.

IIRC, UCF was extremely lucky to score that last TD. UCF had second and 15 from their own 20, and their QB was sacked back at the 5. But LSU was hit with two personal foul penalties after the play, both of which were enforced, so instead of UCF having 3rd and 30 from their own 5 yard line, they had 1st and 10 from midfield.

That 'drive' should have ended with a punt from like their own 10 yard line, not a TD.

Lucky? C'mon. So penalties are luck now? What about turnovers? Bad passes? LSU had well over 100 yards of penalties in that game. They have only themselves to blame.

It was very lucky for UCF that LSU gifted them that last TD. That's all i was saying.

When you get out-gained 550 to 250 and 45 mins to 15 mins and 32 first downs to 17 first downs, the other team has to make a lot of blunders for you to lose "only" by 8 points.

And those blunders can be explained by LSU having to play so many green players.

Didn't UCF have a prominent player on offense out who was replaced by a freshman making his 2nd career start? Does that count?
01-04-2019 03:28 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Final Rankings?
last time SEC had 5 top 15 teams- 2013- Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri, Alabama, LSU. all in top 14.

the year before the SEC had 5 top 10 teams. Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida. Also had LSU at 14 so 6 top 14 teams.
01-04-2019 03:34 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  last time SEC had 5 top 15 teams- 2013- Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri, Alabama, LSU. all in top 14.

the year before the SEC had 5 top 10 teams. Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida. Also had LSU at 14 so 6 top 14 teams.

They should have 6 in the top 15. But what's odd is that the SEC is way down in the middle. Florida, Kentucky and A&M would get stomped by the typical 4th best SEC team. There's just a big dropoff after the top teams this year. More 6-6 teams and fewer 10-2.
01-04-2019 04:02 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 04:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  last time SEC had 5 top 15 teams- 2013- Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri, Alabama, LSU. all in top 14.

the year before the SEC had 5 top 10 teams. Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida. Also had LSU at 14 so 6 top 14 teams.

They should have 6 in the top 15. But what's odd is that the SEC is way down in the middle. Florida, Kentucky and A&M would get stomped by the typical 4th best SEC team. There's just a big dropoff after the top teams this year. More 6-6 teams and fewer 10-2.

I think that drop off may be across all of college football. I mean Pac 12 is really down.... Big 12 I think is down. ACC was really down this year. Big Ten is down from a year or 2 ago.
01-04-2019 04:05 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 03:28 PM)DBSUC1982 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 07:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:55 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:32 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  UCF came back in garbage time? It was one TD and 2-pt conversion and that put them within one score. If they recovered the onside kick they still had more than 2 minutes to tie it up.

IIRC, UCF was extremely lucky to score that last TD. UCF had second and 15 from their own 20, and their QB was sacked back at the 5. But LSU was hit with two personal foul penalties after the play, both of which were enforced, so instead of UCF having 3rd and 30 from their own 5 yard line, they had 1st and 10 from midfield.

That 'drive' should have ended with a punt from like their own 10 yard line, not a TD.

Lucky? C'mon. So penalties are luck now? What about turnovers? Bad passes? LSU had well over 100 yards of penalties in that game. They have only themselves to blame.

It was very lucky for UCF that LSU gifted them that last TD. That's all i was saying.

When you get out-gained 550 to 250 and 45 mins to 15 mins and 32 first downs to 17 first downs, the other team has to make a lot of blunders for you to lose "only" by 8 points.

And those blunders can be explained by LSU having to play so many green players.

Didn't UCF have a prominent player on offense out who was replaced by a freshman making his 2nd career start? Does that count?

No, that doesn't count, we can just rationalize that one away.
01-04-2019 04:14 PM
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Post: #78
RE: Final Rankings?
Here's my guess:

Final AP Rank. School (W-L, most recent result, previous AP rank)

1. Alabama (15-0, W/W, 1) OR Clemson (15-0, W/W, 2)
2. Clemson (14-1, W/L, 2) OR Alabama (14-1, W/L, 1)
3. Ohio State (13-1, W, 5)
4. Notre Dame (12-1, L, 3)
5. Oklahoma (12-2, L, 4)
6. Georgia (11-3, L, 6)
7. Florida (10-3, W, 10)
8. LSU (10-3, W, 11)
9. Washington State (11-2, W, 12)
10. UCF (12-1, L, 7)
11. Michigan (10-3, L, 8)
12. Texas (10-4, W, 14)
13. Kentucky (10-3, W, 16)
14. Syracuse (10-3, W, 17)
15. Washington (10-4, L, 9)
16. Fresno State (12-2, W, 19)
17. Penn State (9-4, L, 13)
18. Texas A&M (9-4, W, 21)
19. Army (10-2, W, 22)
20. West Virginia (8-4, L, 15)
21. Northwestern (9-5, W, NR)
22. Utah State (11-2, W, NR)
23. Boise State (10-3, DNP, 23)
24. Mississippi State (8-5, L, 18)
25. Utah (9-5, L, 20)
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 04:56 PM by Nerdlinger.)
01-04-2019 04:54 PM
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Post: #79
RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 04:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 04:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  last time SEC had 5 top 15 teams- 2013- Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri, Alabama, LSU. all in top 14.

the year before the SEC had 5 top 10 teams. Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida. Also had LSU at 14 so 6 top 14 teams.

They should have 6 in the top 15. But what's odd is that the SEC is way down in the middle. Florida, Kentucky and A&M would get stomped by the typical 4th best SEC team. There's just a big dropoff after the top teams this year. More 6-6 teams and fewer 10-2.

I think that drop off may be across all of college football. I mean Pac 12 is really down.... Big 12 I think is down. ACC was really down this year. Big Ten is down from a year or 2 ago.

Yes. That's what I was trying to say.
01-04-2019 04:55 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Final Rankings?
(01-04-2019 01:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 01:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-04-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The game was a statistical rout, only fluke/lucky breaks for UCF kept it within reason on the scoreboard. It was total LSU domination.

And according to ESPN's game tracker, UCF's chances to win when down 40-24 was 99.7%. After UCF scored the two-pointer to make it 40-32, it was 99.4%. So yes, that's garbage time. LSU's chance to win was above 94% the entire 4th quarter.

And btw, LSU only had one drive where they "moved the ball between the 20s" and didn't score.

and I'm sure ESPN's game tracker was influenced by their pregame notions of both teams....

My understanding of the game tracker % is that it is a statistical model based on what has happened to other teams in the past in the same situation. That is, if team X has the ball first and 10 on its own 20, up by 10, with 3 minutes to go, and the GT says they have a 98% chance to win, that's because in the past, 98% of all teams in that situation have won. It's all math, has nothing to do with subjective pregame notions.

when the game kicked off by their probability, LSU was a 70% favorite. so no, it wasn't objective at all.....

Of course it was. That 70% initial probability was based on their incoming statistical profile, which is as it should be. I mean, if Alabama is about to kickoff against Alabama A&M, it would be absurd to have the initial probability at 50% each.

But of course that then changes in response to game events. E.g., when UCF went up 14-3, the odds swung to 70% in their favor.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 07:57 PM by quo vadis.)
01-04-2019 07:56 PM
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