The 20/20 hindsight that we have in college football is sort of ridiculous and it’s a symptom of, IMHO, the flawed and exclusionary playoff system. The fact that Notre Dame lost badly doesn’t mean that they didn’t deserve to be in the playoff any more than the fact that the 2001 Mariners, 2007 Patriots and 2015-16 Warriors didn’t deserve to be in their respective sports’ playoffs because they happened to lose in the postseason. I point out those 3 teams that fell short because they happen to all have the best regular seasons in the histories of MLB, the NFL and the NBA, respectively.

An undefeated team with Notre Dame’s schedule absolutely deserves to be in the postseason in the current format. The fact that they lost is irrelevant to that analysis because good-to-great teams *have* to lose in any playoff format.

That being said, the issue is that college football’s playoff format is an inherently exclusionary system, so we’re often trying to parse the #3/#4 teams with the #5/#6 teams, and that means a bad loss in the semifinal round has a disproportionate impact on how we perceive what “should have” happened. There also aren’t auto-bids in the playoff system, which means that everything is up to subjective perception.

ND deserved to be in the 4-team playoff based on any reasonable criteria. The problem is that the playoff system really ought to be at 8-teams with P5 autobids to really capture the entire field of teams that could reasonably be “deserving” of being in the playoffs. Too many old school fans are so worried about letting an “undeserving” team into the 8-team playoff, but I’m MUCH more bothered that deserving teams continually get shut out of the 4-team playoff.

(01-02-2019 12:24 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The 20/20 hindsight that we have in college football is sort of ridiculous and it’s a symptom of, IMHO, the flawed and exclusionary playoff system. The fact that Notre Dame lost badly doesn’t mean that they didn’t deserve to be in the playoff any more than the fact that the 2001 Mariners, 2007 Patriots and 2015-16 Warriors didn’t deserve to be in their respective sports’ playoffs because they happened to lose in the postseason. I point out those 3 teams that fell short because they happen to all have the best regular seasons in the histories of MLB, the NFL and the NBA, respectively.

An undefeated team with Notre Dame’s schedule absolutely deserves to be in the postseason in the current format. The fact that they lost is irrelevant to that analysis because good-to-great teams *have* to lose in any playoff format.

That being said, the issue is that college football’s playoff format is an inherently exclusionary system, so we’re often trying to parse the #3/#4 teams with the #5/#6 teams, and that means a bad loss in the semifinal round has a disproportionate impact on how we perceive what “should have” happened. There also aren’t auto-bids in the playoff system, which means that everything is up to subjective perception.

ND deserved to be in the 4-team playoff based on any reasonable criteria. The problem is that the playoff system really ought to be at 8-teams with P5 autobids to really capture the entire field of teams that could reasonably be “deserving” of being in the playoffs. Too many old school fans are so worried about letting an “undeserving” team into the 8-team playoff, but I’m MUCH more bothered that deserving teams continually get shut out of the 4-team playoff.

That's how I look at it also. As a MAC fan it's pretty much a given that we won't get a team in an 8-team playoff anyway, but as a college football fan I would prefer that it wasn't so exclusionary.

(01-01-2019 11:40 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Well, the team considered the strongest contender to be in over them is getting beat by a 4 loss Texas.

OSU’s bad loss to Purdue knocked them out.

I think ND was the right team for the spot.

UCF, while popular among G5 fans, had no argument for inclusion.

OSU can barely beat Washington. Ohio State would have lost by 40 points to Clemson.

(01-02-2019 09:27 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 09:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 08:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  ND deserved to make it in

Should have been the 4th seed instead of Oklahoma though.

Remember, Oklahoma got blown out Alabama a lot worse than ND did by Clemson. The Clemson/ND game wasn't over until the last two minutes before halftime. Oklahoma was beaten halfway through the first quarter.

Don't let garbage time/letup points fool you.

LOL...says you.

Sure, a team with 248 total yards to one with 471. Totally all "garbage time."

Whatever it takes to help you feel better, I suppose.

Clemson didn't have a 90% chance to beat ND until 2 minutes left in the first half. Alabama had that midway through the first quarter. The rest of the game was just killing the clock.

You must not have watched ...

(01-02-2019 10:07 AM)TopperCard Wrote:  No, they certainly deserved to be in the CFP. The only argument against it is they don't have to play a conference championship game. Make the playoff 8 teams, everyone has to be in a conference. Five P5 conference champions, auto-bid for best G5 champion, two at-larges.

I would recommend four of five P5 conference champions (drop the one with the worst records), best ranking G5 team and three at-larges.

By the subjective system, Notre Dame was an appropriate pick for the playoffs. They were undefeated and that weighed heavily. That said, they played like they didn't belong in the mix.

(01-02-2019 09:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 09:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 08:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  ND deserved to make it in

Should have been the 4th seed instead of Oklahoma though.

Remember, Oklahoma got blown out Alabama a lot worse than ND did by Clemson. The Clemson/ND game wasn't over until the last two minutes before halftime. Oklahoma was beaten halfway through the first quarter.

Don't let garbage time/letup points fool you.

31-20 going into the 4th quarter??? Over???

After Clemson and Alabama there were a pack of schools who maybe should have been in, but all were rated 9-12pts worse than the top two teams.

Yes the computer said Georgia (after Sugar Bowl maybe a good thing left out) and Ohio State (never a question about their having equal talent with Clemson and not far from Alabama either, but just never got a focus and rhythm together -- at least they were 12-1 and B1G champs) should be in instead of Notre Dame and Oklahoma. But it did't say by much. OU, ND, Michigan (talk about flopping teams in Bowl games) and Florida where in a cluster with tOSU and Georgia, all separated by maybe 2-3 point. Of all the team Ohio State probably had the best case based on shear talent and flashes of dominance. But Notre Dame won all it's games, and Ohio State didn't match style points with OU in the CCG.

UCF is the best of the G5, although computer models say their performance was barely any better than Fresno State (there was a bit of gap from those two teams and the rest of G5). But UCF appears to slot in the mid-to-high-teens if you ignore sentimental opinions. No way did they belong in the playoffs. Like ND, they're 13-0 record overrated them half a dozen places. Every argument against Notre Dame's placement in the Playoff applies double to UCF and their much weaker schedule. (UCF did themselves no favor in their public bumbling of the Florida 2 for 1 offer)

In the end it's hard to argue with the four picked. I think Ohio State and Urban Meyer especially were actually relieved not to have to face Alabama or Clemson, and instead face a more tame Washington in the Rose Bowl; made for a happy ending. They will probably end up ranked #4, which is about right. OU deserves #3 because they played as well as could be expected and didn't quit.Notre Dame will probably fall to about 5 or 6 in the polls (Georgia and Michigan laying eggs helps them from falling farther) and that is fine too.

It just didn't matter much, Alabama and Clemson were 12 points better on paper than anyone else going in, and the playoffs confirmed it.

Quote:8 team:. 5 P5, 3 at large with caveat

Highest G5 taken if it finishes in Top 12

Problem with that is the unconditional to a P5.

EX: G5 Conf Champ misses it ranked #14; P5 Conf Upset Champ makes it ranked #18

That's why I say, instead, the Top 6 Conf Champs if within the Top 12 or 13. You avoid that problem in that example.

(01-02-2019 05:18 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:8 team:. 5 P5, 3 at large with caveat

Highest G5 taken if it finishes in Top 12

Problem with that is the unconditional to a P5.

EX: G5 Conf Champ misses it ranked #14; P5 Conf Upset Champ makes it ranked #18

That's why I say, instead, the Top 6 Conf Champs if within the Top 12 or 13. You avoid that problem in that example.

Or, the conferences could switch to the Big 12 Model (top two, no divisions).

Clemson vs Notre Dame was the defacto ACC Championship game.

ND should be added to the ACC. Then the playoff becomes simple when expanded to 8.

Take the P5 champs, highest G5 champ plus one wild card.

The regular season is a playoff.

Conference Championships are the first round of the playoff

Seed the playoffs based on the 8

Second round is on December 21 or 22

Third round is on New years Day - 4 teams

Fourth round is the National Title game on January 7 or 9.

No quibbles from everybody. (except the four g5 champs left out)

This is the best compromise and makes the most money and does extend the CFP past current timeline

Quote:Or, the conferences could switch to the Big 12 Model (top two, no divisions).

Sure, but then there wouldn't be a conf championship. And less teams per conference (P6 again?). The B12 is ONLY now doing a conf championship, a repeat-game of the top two, to Up their chances to get a team into the Top 4 (that 'extra game'). In a nutshell, it certainly won't happen with most conferences being 12-14 teams.

But even so, what if a Conf Champion of a P5 who beats up on each other is #16 (due to their OOC record being garbage), and a G5 Champ ranking #14? You still don't completely Guarantee a P5 Champ is Always going to be high enough to make the clearing. Otherwise, you wouldn't have the Unconditional Rule, right?? :) That's the problem with Unconditional-for-P5, Conditional-for-G5.

And saying Unconditional for G5 will certainly have the Top G5 Champ be below a 12/13 cut-off somewhat often.

That's why I say 6 max auto Conf Champs altogether, P5 vs G5 be damned, but make them Conditional -- have to be in the Top 12 or 13; and a max of 2 higher than #8.

Always giving a Top G5 an unconditional auto-bid won't fly for a mere 8-team playoff. Won't fly. It didn't fly for 10-team BCS bowls, and bowls are more forgiving to outsiders.

The 24 team playoff model....

https://csnbbs.com/thread-865406.html

Comparing this FBS playoff to the NFL and FCS playoffs, and assuming all favorites win, this happens...

NFL: 2 teams play 18 games. 2 teams play 19 games.

FBS: 1 team plays 16 games. 2 teams play 17 games.

FCS: 2 teams play 14 games. 2 teams play 15 games.


In this model, every FBS team has a clear, defined pathway to the playoff. INCLUSIVE.

This is what is needed to save college football from itself.

(01-02-2019 03:38 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  By the subjective system, Notre Dame was an appropriate pick for the playoffs. They were undefeated and that weighed heavily. That said, they played like they didn't belong in the mix.

That day yes...but football is funny

Cuse lost pretty badly to Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium but had Clemson on the ropes and should have won the game at Clemson earlier in the season.

Notre Dame met the criteria and belonged in the Top 4.

(01-02-2019 09:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 09:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 08:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  ND deserved to make it in

Should have been the 4th seed instead of Oklahoma though.

Remember, Oklahoma got blown out Alabama a lot worse than ND did by Clemson. The Clemson/ND game wasn't over until the last two minutes before halftime. Oklahoma was beaten halfway through the first quarter.

Don't let garbage time/letup points fool you.

31-20 going into the 4th quarter??? Over???

Down 28-0 in 1Q??? Means you played great???

You're falling into the CFB media trap that coming back has anything to do with the resiliency of the losing team. Alabama took their foot off the gas.
Another thing that happens when a team is down 28 - the officiating changes. The NFL and CFB has learned a lot from watching the NBA manipulate games. Refs aren't going to call holding penalties, etc. The powers that be want a competitive game and the refs are there to ensure that.
If you are really watching often, check out how many comebacks they are each week. Even OSU almost lost yesterday. It really makes the game look stupid when the first 3Q don't matter at all and it's not worth tuning in until the 4Q. I remember Greenberg and Golic mentioning the same thing after Baylor's luckback against TCU in 2014. The "Basketball on Grass" version is getting ridiculous.

(01-03-2019 01:25 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 09:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 09:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 08:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  ND deserved to make it in

Should have been the 4th seed instead of Oklahoma though.

Remember, Oklahoma got blown out Alabama a lot worse than ND did by Clemson. The Clemson/ND game wasn't over until the last two minutes before halftime. Oklahoma was beaten halfway through the first quarter.

Don't let garbage time/letup points fool you.

31-20 going into the 4th quarter??? Over???

Down 28-0 in 1Q??? Means you played great???

You're falling into the CFB media trap that coming back has anything to do with the resiliency of the losing team. Alabama took their foot off the gas.
Another thing that happens when a team is down 28 - the officiating changes. The NFL and CFB has learned a lot from watching the NBA manipulate games. Refs aren't going to call holding penalties, etc. The powers that be want a competitive game and the refs are there to ensure that.
If you are really watching often, check out how many comebacks they are each week. Even OSU almost lost yesterday. It really makes the game look stupid when the first 3Q don't matter at all and it's not worth tuning in until the 4Q. I remember Greenberg and Golic mentioning the same thing after Baylor's luckback against TCU in 2014. The "Basketball on Grass" version is getting ridiculous.

Imaginary referee conspiracies. Since when does Saban want his team to let up off the gas? 31-20 lead against a team with OU's offense and the Heisman winner is not comfortable at all. Sounds like some of you turned it off in the 2nd quarter.

OU had a better argument than UGA or Ohio St. and obviously were a far better choice than anyone other than those two. Nick Saban said with clear relief after the game that he had never had as tough an offense to prepare against as OU.

As Emmanuel Acho said on the radio, Notre Dame deserved to be there but they didn't belong. When you watched them, they didn't have the talent Georgia or Ohio St. did. But the fact is, Notre Dame showed up for every game and did what they had to do. Ohio St. nearly lost to a Maryland team that was a shadow of what they were early in the season when MD failed on a 2 pt conversion in OT. Ohio St. got blown out by Purdue (Auburn 63 Purdue 14). Sometimes Ohio St. didn't show up. UGA beat the teams they should, but ended up losing to the 3 best teams they played. LSU and Texas pretty much dominated them.

There was no good basis for leaving Notre Dame or Oklahoma out except that some people "felt" others were better. But it doesn't matter how you are at your best if you don't prove it every week.

There are only 4 teams who have beaten 2 of the CFP top 10 (after bowls). Alabama is one of them (OU and UGA). Ohio St. is one (MI and UW-but both probably fall out after the bowls). LSU is one (UGA and UCF). Texas is one (OU and UGA). LSU and Texas weren't considered for good reasons. And its the same reason Ohio St. was #6 and UGA was #5. Their best performance didn't always show up.

(01-02-2019 12:24 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ND deserved to be in the 4-team playoff based on any reasonable criteria. The problem is that the playoff system really ought to be at 8-teams with P5 autobids to really capture the entire field of teams that could reasonably be “deserving” of being in the playoffs. Too many old school fans are so worried about letting an “undeserving” team into the 8-team playoff, but I’m MUCH more bothered that deserving teams continually get shut out of the 4-team playoff.

I am there with you on the last sentence, but not the first one. Not with a field of four. ND and Oklahoma were both distinctly behind the top two seeds, but, really, undefeated ND or no, were probably no different, better, or indistinguishable from OU, OSU, UCF, UGA, Washington/State. Part of the "inner circle" and being undefeated, you don't toss that, I guess. Just don't look at the schedule and scores.

If UCF never has a shot at this thing, then this year, like all of the others, further expose how you either need to really expand the playoff or simply revert back to the BCS championship game because #'s 1 & 2 are that much more ahead of the rest, or #'s 3-8 are just interchangeable and advocating for one is slighting another.

I'm out of this one until we get to eight or more. It's a juggle to keep hoops and pro football on the tube in our house. There's no room for what's pretty much professional wrestling masquerading with facemasks and marching bands.

(01-03-2019 02:20 AM)bullet Wrote:  Imaginary referee conspiracies.

So, we're not going to talk about this here at all?

Networks in the ears of the officials is one thing. The conference's business people?

It's here to stay, too, when you have these "conference networks."

No thanks.

(01-02-2019 09:10 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Clemson vs Notre Dame was the defacto ACC Championship game.

ND should be added to the ACC. Then the playoff becomes simple when expanded to 8.

Take the P5 champs, highest G5 champ plus one wild card.

The regular season is a playoff.

Conference Championships are the first round of the playoff

Seed the playoffs based on the 8

Second round is on December 21 or 22

Third round is on New years Day - 4 teams

Fourth round is the National Title game on January 7 or 9.

No quibbles from everybody. (except the four g5 champs left out)

This is the best compromise and makes the most money and does not extend the CFP past current timeline

The true solution is for each conference (P4) to present their "champion" to the CFP. It shouldn't matter how the confernce decides which school the champion will be (which will eliminate the possibility of an upset getting the wrong team in).
Of course for this to work: The Big 12 would have to dissolve with some of the teams being reassigned and Notre Dame would have to join a conference full time.