(12-31-2018 08:59 PM)Tintin Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 11:05 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 10:48 PM)Tintin Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 10:37 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 10:05 PM)rileylives Wrote:  Well then Joe, to be fair, a three year list would probably be best described as a top 25 rolling average of recent successful individual seasons.

A 5 year list most resembles a list of program strength. (How you handle turnover and such).

They don’t have to be at odds. 3 years probably more accurately shows your recent success, where as a 5 year list holds more weight in measuring the overall program.

So I would argue calling your list “Program Strength Rankings” would be better suited under the 5 year mark.

I disagree. In a 5 year average the WKU program would look like a juggernaut. WKU is currently facing back to back losing seasons. A 5 year rolling average would misrepresent their program's actual strength.

It is a fine line between too few seasons and too many seasons. I feel three seasons helps keep the data relevant and more accurate.

As a impartial party, I see Fine gone and UNT doesn’t scare me the way it did in 18. Same with Stocksdale.

You do realize Mason Fine and all of his starting receivers will be seniors in 2019. We also have both of our starting running backs returning as juniors.

My error. I thought Fine had graduated. UNT is back to being terrifying.

I'm not sure how fearful you need to be. We still have to travel to Charlotte, and we have to replace a lot of production on our defense. Plus, both of our lines have yet to live up to our expectations. Even though we return a ton of offensive production, we have several question marks in other areas. It will be important to see how those positions shake out in the spring and fall camps.

Man, those Tyson Summers seasons really killed our record

Yeah, Fine/Guyton will be back, and they should be favored preseason 2019 in the west. In the East, FIU and Marshall should both get nods.

(01-01-2019 10:49 AM)USM@FTL Wrote:  Yeah, Fine/Guyton will be back, and they should be favored preseason 2019 in the west. In the East, FIU and Marshall should both get nods.

I dunno. I could see LaTech installed as the early favorite, but they have the tougher road to hoe cross-divisionally, IMHO. UNT crossovers are @Charlotte and Middle at home. Tech’s are @Marshall and FIU at home. Both will probably be jockeying for the east title.

But, LaTech seems to have the more favorable divisional schedule in that they have both USM and UNT at home and UAB on the road and UNT has UAB at home and LaTech and USM on the road.

This could make for a very interesting race.

(01-03-2019 11:44 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(01-01-2019 10:49 AM)USM@FTL Wrote:  Yeah, Fine/Guyton will be back, and they should be favored preseason 2019 in the west. In the East, FIU and Marshall should both get nods.

I dunno. I could see LaTech installed as the early favorite, but they have the tougher road to hoe cross-divisionally, IMHO. UNT crossovers are @Charlotte and Middle at home. Tech’s are @Marshall and FIU at home. Both will probably be jockeying for the east title.

But, LaTech seems to have the more favorable divisional schedule in that they have both USM and UNT at home and UAB on the road and UNT has UAB at home and LaTech and USM on the road.

This could make for a very interesting race.

Littrell has not lost to Southern Miss in his 3 seasons at North Texas, but they are a really good program, so we will have to see how they shape up in the spring and fall. UAB should be down at least a little after graduating so many seniors. LA Tech is my biggest concern heading into divisional play next year. Littrell is 1-2 against them. LA Tech is the only team in C-USA West Littrell has a losing record against. But, after they ruined our Mean Joe Green Statue/ Highest Attendance Ever game, we have a lot of motivation to get some revenge when we travel to Ruston.

It's an interesting discussion. I can think of a lot of things to use as tiebreakers and certainly some arguments for using different time scales.

I think adding some info on trends might be helpful.
Tech has actually dropped off some in the past two years versus the two prior. Not sure what that says about us, but it might be illuminating for some other schools.

OOC win %
P5 Wins
Conference championships/ division championships
Weeks in top 25.

Because college schedules are so different, it's hard to compare based on pure wins. Some method that factors in relative strengths is probably helpful as well.
computer rankings etc.