Which team in the 5 year history of the CFP proved to be the worst pick?

2014. The team who would’ve won was sitting home winning their bowl by 50.

(12-30-2018 05:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which team in the 5 year history of the CFP proved to be the worst pick?

Not the worst TEAM, but probably the worst PICK was last year's Alabama team: they didn't win their own division, hardly had any noteworthy wins (none out of conference for sure)... just because they won a 2-game tournament doesn't mean they were a good choice - the committee still picked a team with a weak resume going into the playoffs.

Do you realize that the 2017 Crimson Tide played...
...just 9 total P5 opponents (and two of those were Vanderbilt and Tennessee)?
...an FCS team one week before facing Auburn - and STILL lost to the Tigers?
...not only two G5 teams, but both had to travel over 1,300 miles and at least one time zone to get to Tuscaloosa?
...regular season opponents with a combined record of 83-69 (.546)?
and they only beat 11 of those regular season opponents - with a combined record of 43-65 (.529)

If not for the uniforms, no way does that resume get you into the playoffs.

Props to them for making the most of it by winning the championship.

At least this year's Bama team actually won the SEC championship (although for you folks who don't want P5 auto-bids, let me point out that Alabama's best OOC win in the regular season was Louisville - worst team in the P5s this season; there was no second P5 OOC game).
__________

As to why these other teams keep getting blown out... one of the great mysteries of college football.

(12-30-2018 07:45 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 05:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which team in the 5 year history of the CFP proved to be the worst pick?

Not the worst TEAM, but probably the worst PICK was last year's Alabama team: they didn't win their own division, hardly had any noteworthy wins (none out of conference for sure)... just because they won a 2-game tournament doesn't mean they were a good choice - the committee still picked a team with a weak resume going into the playoffs.

Do you realize that the 2017 Crimson Tide played...
...just 9 total P5 opponents (and two of those were Vanderbilt and Tennessee)?
...an FCS team one week before facing Auburn - and STILL lost to the Tigers?
...not only two G5 teams, but both had to travel over 1,300 miles and at least one time zone to get to Tuscaloosa?
...regular season opponents with a combined record of 83-69 (.546)?
and they only beat 11 of those regular season opponents - with a combined record of 43-65 (.529)

If not for the uniforms, no way does that resume get you into the playoffs.

Props to them for making the most of it by winning the championship.

At least this year's Bama team actually won the SEC championship (although for you folks who don't want P5 auto-bids, let me point out that Alabama's best OOC win in the regular season was Louisville - worst team in the P5s this season; there was no second P5 OOC game).
__________

As to why these other teams keep getting blown out... one of the great mysteries of college football.

Good point. Once in, they made the most of it (like Ohio State the first year).

Seems like ND is the answer for the OP.


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I chose Michigan St because they were not undefeated and got blown out in the CFP.

(12-30-2018 07:45 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 05:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which team in the 5 year history of the CFP proved to be the worst pick?

Not the worst TEAM, but probably the worst PICK was last year's Alabama team: they didn't win their own division, hardly had any noteworthy wins (none out of conference for sure)... just because they won a 2-game tournament doesn't mean they were a good choice - the committee still picked a team with a weak resume going into the playoffs.

Do you realize that the 2017 Crimson Tide played...
...just 9 total P5 opponents (and two of those were Vanderbilt and Tennessee)?
...an FCS team one week before facing Auburn - and STILL lost to the Tigers?
...not only two G5 teams, but both had to travel over 1,300 miles and at least one time zone to get to Tuscaloosa?
...regular season opponents with a combined record of 83-69 (.546)?
and they only beat 11 of those regular season opponents - with a combined record of 43-65 (.529)

If not for the uniforms, no way does that resume get you into the playoffs.

Props to them for making the most of it by winning the championship.

At least this year's Bama team actually won the SEC championship (although for you folks who don't want P5 auto-bids, let me point out that Alabama's best OOC win in the regular season was Louisville - worst team in the P5s this season; there was no second P5 OOC game).
__________

As to why these other teams keep getting blown out... one of the great mysteries of college football.

Winner.

Inspired some of my rant over on the other thread. Didn’t win a division or conference, didn’t play the thirteenth game, and the stuff above. Pose that to how there simply wasn’t a way less than two SEC teams weren’t showing up in the playoff. Auburn winning the SEC puts the first two-loss team in, and either UGA just hangs on, or Bama jumps them.

Or, my favorite one...Wisconsin, simply by playing an extra game, loses their spot after losing that game, that spot going to the above. Just can’t stop wondering what might have been if Wisky won the ccg and had to go head-to-head with that SEC issue. And it was an “issue.” What a bias for that conference...what lengths the system went to make sure select programs were represented. Nobody else had a shot.

Of course, people said Wisky’s resume was super soft after 12 games. When you see Notre Dame, now...do you want to kinda reapproach that risk issue when an extra thirteenth game will impact your chances to programs who only play twelve?

(12-30-2018 09:16 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I chose Michigan St because they were not undefeated and got blown out in the CFP.

Same here. Even though the Spartans did have a tougher overall schedule that year than ND this year.

Cheers,
Neil

For me there are two convincing choices:
2016 Ohio State lost to Penn State, who went onto win the B1G, yet still got in over them primarily due to PSU's 10-49 loss to Michigan.

2018 Notre Dame had way too many close games with teams they should have easily handled. (Vandy, Ball State, Pitt). Not being in a conference or winning a conference championship is another issue.

I’ve seen this “best team” versus “most deserving” thing pop up over the years. I don’t know how it’s ever reconciled in this construct when you have these variables. For a major conference, that “best team” has a thirteen-game season. If you’re not playing thirteen games, you are not “best” anything. And that is shown with last year’s Bama and 2016 Ohio State without any conference distinctions to their credits (at least Bama won the whole thing).

The reality for Notre Dame is different. It’s twelve games of perfection.

The Big XII got its **** together because twelve games weren’t enough for their “best teams.”

The ceilings aren’t uniform even among the majors. The best teams should also be the most deserving. It shouldn’t be two separate fields.

(12-30-2018 07:45 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 05:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which team in the 5 year history of the CFP proved to be the worst pick?

Not the worst TEAM, but probably the worst PICK was last year's Alabama team: they didn't win their own division, hardly had any noteworthy wins (none out of conference for sure)... just because they won a 2-game tournament doesn't mean they were a good choice - the committee still picked a team with a weak resume going into the playoffs.

Do you realize that the 2017 Crimson Tide played...
...just 9 total P5 opponents (and two of those were Vanderbilt and Tennessee)?
...an FCS team one week before facing Auburn - and STILL lost to the Tigers?
...not only two G5 teams, but both had to travel over 1,300 miles and at least one time zone to get to Tuscaloosa?
...regular season opponents with a combined record of 83-69 (.546)?
and they only beat 11 of those regular season opponents - with a combined record of 43-65 (.529)

If not for the uniforms, no way does that resume get you into the playoffs.

Props to them for making the most of it by winning the championship.

At least this year's Bama team actually won the SEC championship (although for you folks who don't want P5 auto-bids, let me point out that Alabama's best OOC win in the regular season was Louisville - worst team in the P5s this season; there was no second P5 OOC game).
__________

As to why these other teams keep getting blown out... one of the great mysteries of college football.

So much envy. They beat Clemson. They Beat Georgia. Their only loss was to Auburn who beat Georgia in the regular season. Georgia avenged the Auburn loss.
Georgia beat Oklahoma. End of story. But somehow I don't think the butthurt will go away.

2016 Ohio State without a doubt.

Notre Dame this year was at least in the game until the second quarter. In 2016 Clemson dominated the Suckeyes from pillar to post.

(12-30-2018 07:45 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 05:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which team in the 5 year history of the CFP proved to be the worst pick?

Not the worst TEAM, but probably the worst PICK was last year's Alabama team: they didn't win their own division, hardly had any noteworthy wins (none out of conference for sure)... just because they won a 2-game tournament doesn't mean they were a good choice - the committee still picked a team with a weak resume going into the playoffs.

....
If not for the uniforms, no way does that resume get you into the playoffs.

Well, not only did both human polls have Alabama at #4, the computers did too. If you are going to throw out Alabama, you have to say who you thought should have been in instead of them.

Why isn't 2018 Oklahoma on the list? They were a "worse" pick than Notre Dame. They lost a game during the season, and they were blown out quicker than Notre Dame was.

Notre Dame was in the game until the last two minutes of the first half. Oklahoma vs Alabama was over midway through the first quarter.

Invite the conference champs

All of them

Winning your league matters.

Two at large for a twelve team bracket

Or just blow the whole thing up and go back to the old bowl method


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Honestly, I don't think any of them were really bad picks. Usually when you get down to 4, you are dealing with a couple of teams that are good, but one with some significant flaw. If they are chosen based on how they did during the season, it's pretty much never a flaw, but if based on just how good they expect in the playoff, then yes a flaw if they don't do well. If Georgia had been in this year, I would have considered it a major flaw even though I think the Bulldogs would have been more likely to win it than anyone else except Alabama or Clemson. I don't think you can really argue that their accomplishments were better than Ohio State, Oklahoma, or Notre Dame even though I think they were a better team.

At the end of the day, I would move a team or two around maybe, but I have not had any big problems with any of the picks.

(12-31-2018 10:06 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Honestly, I don't think any of them were really bad picks. Usually when you get down to 4, you are dealing with a couple of teams that are good, but one with some significant flaw. If they are chosen based on how they did during the season, it's pretty much never a flaw, but if based on just how good they expect in the playoff, then yes a flaw if they don't do well. If Georgia had been in this year, I would have considered it a major flaw even though I think the Bulldogs would have been more likely to win it than anyone else except Alabama or Clemson. I don't think you can really argue that their accomplishments were better than Ohio State, Oklahoma, or Notre Dame even though I think they were a better team.

At the end of the day, I would move a team or two around maybe, but I have not had any big problems with any of the picks.

This is where SOS comes in to play. Georgia lost to LSU and Alabama. Neither Oklahoma nor Notre Dame played games as challenging as playing LSU in Baton Rouge or playing Alabama anywhere. Ohio State arguably did, at Michigan, but then again Georgia blew out a Florida team that also blasted Michigan.

More generally than just one year, Oklahoma seems to have some kind of problem. They've made the CFP three times, and are yet to win a game.

And, their chestiness about the SEC has been deflated dramatically the last two years, as they've been eliminated by the SEC champ twice now.

Oklahoma has figured out to how to navigate the Big 12 schedule and make the playoffs, but not how to match up with the really top teams.

The committee has done a good job picking the best four teams in the country.

That’s their job.

The fact that there is controversy gets people excited.

If they are even close to having not picked one of the top four teams in the county it would have to be Notre Dame this year and I think that’s still debateable. You can make a good argument that Georgia was better. At the same time it’s hard to deny the season ND had.

I'd have to say Michigan St because I forgot they had even made it to the CFP.