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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
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82hawk Offline
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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
I've run the stats in four close games and looked at the last 4 minutes. Davidson, Mercer, CofC and OT against Campbell.

There is one and only one statistic that stands out like a turd in a punch bowl.

FREE THROWS!!!!!!!!

These are the TOTAL FT statistics for the last four minutes of these games

UNCW 3-5
Opponents 25-29

That's it. No reason to look at TO's, missed shots, missed rebounds or any other statistics. I've looked at them all, and most of them are very close.

We were outscored 34-60 during the last 4 minutes of those games, for a 26 point differential. We were outscored by 24 at the FT line. And moreso than the points is the extreme difference in attempts. We simply do not put pressure on teams to stop us and either get points or get to the line at crunch time and our opponents do. This is where we are missing Jordon Talley the most this year. At the end of games he'd go one on one and get the layup or the foul and he shot 80% from the line. So, who's our Talley this year?

Cof C 4-4 UNCW 0-0
Mercer 4-6 UNCW 0-0
Davidson 10-12 UNCW 2-3
Campbell 7-7 UNCW 1-2

The score was TIED with each of these teams except CofC with 4 minutes left in the game(5 minutes of OT with Campbell), and we were only down five to CofC.

First, we have got to put more pressure on our opponents in crunch time where we either score or force them to foul. We cannot win games taking a total of five FT attempts in the final four minutes of four very close games. We need someone to isolate and force the issue. That's only one FT attempt per game during crunch time.

Second, we have got to play more zone, period. We are piling up fouls during the game and then we are getting killed in our one on one defense and either givng up the bucket or fouling on the shot for two FT's during the game and especially at the end of games.

So, it's a combination of changing to more zone defense , especially during crunch time to cut down on fouls and limit opponnents FT's and isolation on offense at the end of games to draw fouls.

At the end of the game i'd put the ball in the hands of Fornes and Cylla. Fornes can get to the bucket and he's hitting 90% from the line. Cylla can attack facing the basket and is hitting 89%. That also allows Cacok to clean up missed shots on the offensive boards. If Toews can stop the TO's with his hop step on the drive, he can get to the bucket as well and shoots 76.5%, but i'd go with the other two options first.

Like it or not, the end of games is mano y mano time and we are not challenging our opponents. I like Kai, but at the end of games he needs to think drive and shoot(or draw the foul), not pass. We are taking too many jumpers at the end of games when we really need sure points on the drive.
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2018 02:28 PM by 82hawk.)
12-30-2018 02:13 PM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Good quality analysis 82!!
12-30-2018 02:43 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
I made a similar point in the CofC thread as well but didn’t directly address the free throws. My point was our lack of any players outside of Cacok that can put the ball in the paint on offense. For offense, we have Cacok and a plethora of shooters. Face it, we aren’t going to see many FTs at all this year, and they will mostly be taken by Cacok. Wouldn’t surprise me if it will cost us 5-6 more close games during conference play. Toews can get in there on occasion. I’d like in the future if he just went to the bucket with it instead of kicking back out to a shooter. There were 2-3 in that game last night where he had a layup but kicked back out while in the air. I like his team ball mentality and he’s an amazing talent, but start scoring my man!!!!

Also, I and I’m sure others agree with your opinion of using more zone defense. Maybe McGrath agrees also, since he used it a lot more (yet it was confusing why he went back to man).


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12-30-2018 04:46 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-30-2018 04:46 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  I made a similar point in the CofC thread as well but didn’t directly address the free throws. My point was our lack of any players outside of Cacok that can put the ball in the paint on offense. For offense, we have Cacok and a plethora of shooters. Face it, we aren’t going to see many FTs at all this year, and they will mostly be taken by Cacok. Wouldn’t surprise me if it will cost us 5-6 more close games during conference play. Toews can get in there on occasion. I’d like in the future if he just went to the bucket with it instead of kicking back out to a shooter. There were 2-3 in that game last night where he had a layup but kicked back out while in the air. I like his team ball mentality and he’s an amazing talent, but start scoring my man!!!!

Also, I and I’m sure others agree with your opinion of using more zone defense. Maybe McGrath agrees also, since he used it a lot more (yet it was confusing why he went back to man).


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Fornes can get to the basket, shoot, pass or make FT's if he's fouled. I'm not sure why he's been put on the back burner under McGrath. Cylla can also face the basket and drive. And, both of them are excellent FT shooters.

Also, this comes down to strategy of the coaches again. THEY need to know these statistics and have a plan to fix them. No way on earth we have NO players who can handle the ball well enough to drive to the basket. These are D1 college players. It's really a matter of who we get the ball to, where they get the ball, and the picks we set to allow them to get to the basket in crucial situations.

If the coaches told the players to drive to the bucket instead of settling for jumpers, they would. Or, if we don't have players who can get to the basket we need to shoot a whole lot more three pointers to close this scoring gap. No reason to take a bunch of jumpers from 2 point range when the cost/benefit of taking threes is well worth it.

The fact is, every good team i've seen at UNCW or anywhere has a crunch time player. Ingram, Blizzard and Carter were always there at the end of games. We have to find that player now.
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2018 06:01 PM by 82hawk.)
12-30-2018 05:57 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #5
The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Fornes is a turnover machine when he dribbles too much. He’s great driving on an open floor but not with a defender or lane traffic.


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12-30-2018 06:08 PM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
He would be fine if he simply took it hard to the hole and created some contact with no wasted dribbles. He's got a good frame so he's as good a guy as any they have. It would get him going and get the Hawks more FT's. Cyllla is another guy that can cause a few problems too so I agree with 82 here. They both are good shooters so that would definitely be a good thing to get going.
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2018 06:59 PM by billthebighawksfan.)
12-30-2018 06:52 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
No matter who it is, we cannot win games that are close at the end with these FT numbers. We've got to create more FT opprtunities and limit our opponents. Otherwise, we are going to have a whole lot of close, "moral victories" and a bad record.

The blowout losses are another issue.
12-30-2018 07:25 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-30-2018 07:25 PM)82hawk Wrote:  No matter who it is, we cannot win games that are close at the end with these FT numbers. We've got to create more FT opprtunities and limit our opponents. Otherwise, we are going to have a whole lot of close, "moral victories" and a bad record.

The blowout losses are another issue.

All of this I agree with.


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12-30-2018 07:34 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-30-2018 06:52 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  He would be fine if he simply took it hard to the hole and created some contact with no wasted dribbles. He's got a good frame so he's as good a guy as any they have. It would get him going and get the Hawks more FT's. Cyllla is another guy that can cause a few problems too so I agree with 82 here. They both are good shooters so that would definitely be a good thing to get going.

I agree they’re both good shooters. But what we haven’t seen is them drive it into the teeth of the defense and score. In that regard, we don’t have a “Riller” on this squad. We have a bunch of good shooters. We might have some guys with good frames or ability. All D1 guards and small forwards have “ability” and most have the “frame”. What we don’t have is a consistent guy who takes the ball into the paint and either finishes or finds the open man.

What we do have is an offense that does one of two things:

1. Pass the ball around the perimeter and settle for a 3 or long 2.

2. Force a pass into Cacok.

We absolutely have NOT seen any of our guards or forwards effectively penetrate.


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12-30-2018 07:38 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-30-2018 07:38 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 06:52 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  He would be fine if he simply took it hard to the hole and created some contact with no wasted dribbles. He's got a good frame so he's as good a guy as any they have. It would get him going and get the Hawks more FT's. Cyllla is another guy that can cause a few problems too so I agree with 82 here. They both are good shooters so that would definitely be a good thing to get going.

I agree they’re both good shooters. But what we haven’t seen is them drive it into the teeth of the defense and score. In that regard, we don’t have a “Riller” on this squad. We have a bunch of good shooters. We might have some guys with good frames or ability. All D1 guards and small forwards have “ability” and most have the “frame”. What we don’t have is a consistent guy who takes the ball into the paint and either finishes or finds the open man.

What we do have is an offense that does one of two things:

1. Pass the ball around the perimeter and settle for a 3 or long 2.

2. Force a pass into Cacok.

We absolutely have NOT seen any of our guards or forwards effectively penetrate.


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All true. But is that because that's the offense we run or because nobody can do it? Toews is great at assists, but his assists are generally kickouts to shooters. I'm going to start looking for this during games. Is Toews getting high picks to work off of to get to the basket? I do know that last night he drove to the basket several times for what looked like an easy layup and instead passed to a shooter. Are we getting the ball to Fornes so he can come off picks and drive?
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2018 08:02 PM by 82hawk.)
12-30-2018 07:58 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-30-2018 07:58 PM)82hawk Wrote:  All true. But is that because that's the offense we run or because nobody can do it? Toews is great at assists, but his assists are generally kickouts to shooters. I'm going to start looking for this during games. Is Toews getting high picks to work off of to get to the basket? I do know that last night he drove to the basket several times for what looked like an easy layup and instead passed to a shooter. Are we getting the ball to Fornes so he can come off picks and drive?

I can speak on that. We aren't doing much in the way of high ball screens with Toews. I'd like to see more Pick 'n Roll with him and Cacok. Seems like a good way to utilize our best passer and inside finisher. If the defense collapses on Cacok, look for a foul or a corner shooter.
12-31-2018 01:10 AM
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
SYNERGY statistics after 14 games suggests that Pick & Roll passes to the 'Lift' or 'Roll' are extremely efficient over all other play types producing 1.225 Points Per Possession (PPP). Pick and Roll accounts for the 3rd most possessions and I would suspect that there are VERY FEW side pick & roll plays with an empty corner. (Cylla/Toews Pick & Pop would cause problems for defenses. CofC switched Brantley on to Toews allowing him to attack efficiently.) However, there are very few passes going to the 'Roll' man since most teams are willing to give up the 3pt shot (Cacock fear factor). Plays like the last 'Toews to Cacock' lob pass for dunk are rare this season compared to last. Offensive Transition stat is the most problematic for a team with a PG who can push the ball and athletes that can run the floor. (Rank #301 in D1 and the 4th highest turnover rate at 21%??)
Needless to say, a lack of defensive stops do not produce fast break chances but when they do occur opponent's BIGS are loading up to the ball because UNCW BIGS are slow to 'rim run' and shooters do not get to corners ahead of the ball push spacing the floor. Basically, UNCW does not get any easy points. And for a team that is presently defensively challenged, they need all the points they can get. Defense will improve (is improving) but that is an entirely separate conversation, since this year's team will only be able to stay in games with a potent offense, including transition baskets. Go with your strengths while your weaknesses are in the development stage.
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2018 07:06 AM by HAWKING.)
12-31-2018 06:53 AM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Nice analysis my man!
12-31-2018 07:07 AM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 01:10 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 07:58 PM)82hawk Wrote:  All true. But is that because that's the offense we run or because nobody can do it? Toews is great at assists, but his assists are generally kickouts to shooters. I'm going to start looking for this during games. Is Toews getting high picks to work off of to get to the basket? I do know that last night he drove to the basket several times for what looked like an easy layup and instead passed to a shooter. Are we getting the ball to Fornes so he can come off picks and drive?

I can speak on that. We aren't doing much in the way of high ball screens with Toews. I'd like to see more Pick 'n Roll with him and Cacok. Seems like a good way to utilize our best passer and inside finisher. If the defense collapses on Cacok, look for a foul or a corner shooter.

The high pick and roll with Cacok and our guards under Keatts was devastating. We completely dominated UVA in the NCAA tournament with that play, to the point they had to take out their big center and go small. Cacok can't dribble to the basket, but he has great hands and can recieve the ball on the roll to the basket. I'd love to see Cylla be a part of this so he can also draw fouls.
12-31-2018 07:26 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 06:53 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  SYNERGY statistics after 14 games suggests that Pick & Roll passes to the 'Lift' or 'Roll' are extremely efficient over all other play types producing 1.225 Points Per Possession (PPP). Pick and Roll accounts for the 3rd most possessions and I would suspect that there are VERY FEW side pick & roll plays with an empty corner. (Cylla/Toews Pick & Pop would cause problems for defenses. CofC switched Brantley on to Toews allowing him to attack efficiently.) However, there are very few passes going to the 'Roll' man since most teams are willing to give up the 3pt shot (Cacock fear factor). Plays like the last 'Toews to Cacock' lob pass for dunk are rare this season compared to last. Offensive Transition stat is the most problematic for a team with a PG who can push the ball and athletes that can run the floor. (Rank #301 in D1 and the 4th highest turnover rate at 21%??)
Needless to say, a lack of defensive stops do not produce fast break chances but when they do occur opponent's BIGS are loading up to the ball because UNCW BIGS are slow to 'rim run' and shooters do not get to corners ahead of the ball push spacing the floor. Basically, UNCW does not get any easy points. And for a team that is presently defensively challenged, they need all the points they can get. Defense will improve (is improving) but that is an entirely separate conversation, since this year's team will only be able to stay in games with a potent offense, including transition baskets. Go with your strengths while your weaknesses are in the development stage.


Whomever you are. WELCOME! That’s a helluva first post!


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12-31-2018 08:43 AM
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HAWKING Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Thank you. Looking forward to the next 2 games where UNCW will be punching at their own weight. Go Hawks!
12-31-2018 08:48 AM
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
This is good stuff 82... and welcome to the board HAWKING!
12-31-2018 11:23 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 08:48 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  Thank you. Looking forward to the next 2 games where UNCW will be punching at their own weight. Go Hawks!

We desperately need both wins this week.
12-31-2018 12:17 PM
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Gary Miller Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 12:17 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 08:48 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  Thank you. Looking forward to the next 2 games where UNCW will be punching at their own weight. Go Hawks!

We desperately need both wins this week.

The JMU matchup worries me, just knowing how Mosely and Lewis can score the ball, and our on-ball defense not being the best. I do think our Defense has looked better the last two games, we're still giving up 3s at a higher percentage but I feel like the shots are tougher. I mean Riller was hitting some crazy ones on Saturday night. JMU is on a losing streak as well, so I expect dog fight similar to last seasons matchup in Harrisonburg on Thursday. Saturday needs to be a W regardless of the outcome on Thursday. I've yet to watch Towson this season, but they seem to be a 1 man show.
12-31-2018 12:54 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
You're averaging 1.5 more free throws attempted than your opponents. Here's a statistic from the numbers in the first post. Here's the percent of free throw attempts that were in the last 4 minutes:

You: 5/293 = 1.7 percent
Opponents: 29/272 = 10.7 percent

I'm a fan of another team that loses close games, the New York Giants.
12-31-2018 01:15 PM
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