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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #41
The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 05:25 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:49 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Here's how the games have ended. Our opponents go for the high percentage shots driving to the glass or in the post, and either shooting layups or drawing fouls. WE go for lower percentage jump shots and three pointers where we are drawing almost no fouls and therefore no FT attempts.

This is the spot on portion of his point. Hell, you could make this point for 75% of the minutes in our games. We shoot A LOT of jumpers and don’t drive into the paint very much at all. Not going to get to the line equally or even close to it if your offense is 95% jump shots (not sure of that exact stat, that’s just the eye test estimate).


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Very true. So, the million dollar question. Does anything change?

Honestly, I don’t think it will change noticeably this season. It’s my opinion that we just don’t have the type player on the roster that plays that way consistently. They all consistently shoot and rarely dribble drive. We need a guy that primarily dribble drives and occasionally shoots.


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01-03-2019 06:44 PM
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HAWKING Offline
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Post: #42
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 06:44 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:25 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:49 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Here's how the games have ended. Our opponents go for the high percentage shots driving to the glass or in the post, and either shooting layups or drawing fouls. WE go for lower percentage jump shots and three pointers where we are drawing almost no fouls and therefore no FT attempts.

This is the spot on portion of his point. Hell, you could make this point for 75% of the minutes in our games. We shoot A LOT of jumpers and don’t drive into the paint very much at all. Not going to get to the line equally or even close to it if your offense is 95% jump shots (not sure of that exact stat, that’s just the eye test estimate).


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Very true. So, the million dollar question. Does anything change?

Honestly, I don’t think it will change noticeably this season. It’s my opinion that we just don’t have the type player on the roster that plays that way consistently. They all consistently shoot and rarely dribble drive. We need a guy that primarily dribble drives and occasionally shoots.


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Ummm....Toews? Assisting on 45% of the team's points. Unhealthy.
01-03-2019 11:53 PM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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Post: #43
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Toews is getting it done! It's great to have a freshmen PG step in and really blossom. Great job young man!!
01-04-2019 12:06 AM
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HAWKING Offline
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Post: #44
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 09:10 AM)Seahawksilver Wrote:  
(01-01-2019 08:18 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  It is important to note how many times players are actually defending the ball (Toews 10% of the time, Fornes 9% and Cylla 8%). Toews gives up a team best of 0.84 PPP followed by Cylla at 0.94 PPP. (Matchups matter, yes) All other players are over the 1.0 PPP level. Statistics never tell the entire story and experienced basketball people should continue to use the 'eye test' to make assessments, however, those same judgements can almost always be supported by quality statistical analysis.

Hawking, it is clear to me that you are getting your info from an App or premium stats site which is great. Keep that good stuff coming!

In the above info, those stats clearly do not pass the "eye test". Cylla may be defending the ball 8% of the time, but he clearly gives up way more than 0.94 PPP. Now whether or not that is his fault or the fault of the defense the staff makes them play, I couldn't tell you. But they clearly play too much help side defense.

The software is SYNERGY and is used by NBA, College and Pro teams worldwide. It is tremendously detailed and at the moment has no peer. After 14 games (JMU not included) Cylla has defended the ball 91 times and given up a total of 81 points for 0.89 Points Per Possession. 3rd best on the team but ranks him #2308 out of 3738 total players in D1. Synergy lists him as a 'Below Average' defender entirely based on PPP.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 12:13 AM by HAWKING.)
01-04-2019 12:12 AM
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Proff Offline
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Post: #45
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
I noted on another thread that Toews broke Goldsberry's freshman assist record tonight.

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01-04-2019 12:13 AM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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Post: #46
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
The "TEAM" won tonight! Let's improve on our collective defense and offense and go get another one Saturday guys! This win was huge for the team. They should know that they have the talent to beat everyone now, they just have to go win the games. The CAA is wide open and this team can beat anybody in this league. Let's go get another one because we can and should regardless of where we play! Go Hawks!!!
01-04-2019 12:26 AM
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HAWKING Offline
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Post: #47
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-04-2019 12:26 AM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  The "TEAM" won tonight! Let's improve on our collective defense and offense and go get another one Saturday guys! This win was huge for the team. They should know that they have the talent to beat everyone now, they just have to go win the games. The CAA is wide open and this team can beat anybody in this league. Let's go get another one because we can and should regardless of where we play! Go Hawks!!!

Agreed. The TEAM won tonight. The content was there compared to previous games. There is reason to be hopeful.
01-04-2019 12:35 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #48
The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-04-2019 12:13 AM)Proff Wrote:  I noted on another thread that Toews broke Goldsberry's freshman assist record tonight.

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Already?! Wow.


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01-04-2019 06:22 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #49
The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 06:44 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 05:25 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:49 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Here's how the games have ended. Our opponents go for the high percentage shots driving to the glass or in the post, and either shooting layups or drawing fouls. WE go for lower percentage jump shots and three pointers where we are drawing almost no fouls and therefore no FT attempts.

This is the spot on portion of his point. Hell, you could make this point for 75% of the minutes in our games. We shoot A LOT of jumpers and don’t drive into the paint very much at all. Not going to get to the line equally or even close to it if your offense is 95% jump shots (not sure of that exact stat, that’s just the eye test estimate).


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Very true. So, the million dollar question. Does anything change?

Honestly, I don’t think it will change noticeably this season. It’s my opinion that we just don’t have the type player on the roster that plays that way consistently. They all consistently shoot and rarely dribble drive. We need a guy that primarily dribble drives and occasionally shoots.


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Feels so nice to be wrong here! Keep the balanced attack going Hawks!!!


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01-04-2019 06:38 AM
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70shawk Offline
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Post: #50
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 02:17 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Very disconcerting quote from the article "The free throw disparity is something McGrath admits he was unaware of, but it’s not as sizeable as it appears. Of the 18 fouls UNCW has committed in the final four minutes, 10 have come with under a minute to play in an attempt to extend the game.".

I think HAWKING might be a nice addition to the staff...
01-05-2019 07:06 AM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #51
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-05-2019 07:06 AM)70shawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:17 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Very disconcerting quote from the article "The free throw disparity is something McGrath admits he was unaware of, but it’s not as sizeable as it appears. Of the 18 fouls UNCW has committed in the final four minutes, 10 have come with under a minute to play in an attempt to extend the game.".

I think HAWKING might be a nice addition to the staff...


He may be the piece we've been missing. If we can just get him to take over trainging our big men since Joe Wolf left...
01-05-2019 08:33 AM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #52
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
https://corp.synergysportstech.com/general-inquiries doesn't have any information about prices. How much does SYNERGY cost for fans?
01-05-2019 09:39 AM
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jumpinmullet Offline
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Post: #53
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-30-2018 05:57 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 04:46 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  I made a similar point in the CofC thread as well but didn’t directly address the free throws. My point was our lack of any players outside of Cacok that can put the ball in the paint on offense. For offense, we have Cacok and a plethora of shooters. Face it, we aren’t going to see many FTs at all this year, and they will mostly be taken by Cacok. Wouldn’t surprise me if it will cost us 5-6 more close games during conference play. Toews can get in there on occasion. I’d like in the future if he just went to the bucket with it instead of kicking back out to a shooter. There were 2-3 in that game last night where he had a layup but kicked back out while in the air. I like his team ball mentality and he’s an amazing talent, but start scoring my man!!!!

Also, I and I’m sure others agree with your opinion of using more zone defense. Maybe McGrath agrees also, since he used it a lot more (yet it was confusing why he went back to man).


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Fornes can get to the basket, shoot, pass or make FT's if he's fouled. I'm not sure why he's been put on the back burner under McGrath. Cylla can also face the basket and drive. And, both of them are excellent FT shooters.

Also, this comes down to strategy of the coaches again. THEY need to know these statistics and have a plan to fix them. No way on earth we have NO players who can handle the ball well enough to drive to the basket. These are D1 college players. It's really a matter of who we get the ball to, where they get the ball, and the picks we set to allow them to get to the basket in crucial situations.

If the coaches told the players to drive to the bucket instead of settling for jumpers, they would. Or, if we don't have players who can get to the basket we need to shoot a whole lot more three pointers to close this scoring gap. No reason to take a bunch of jumpers from 2 point range when the cost/benefit of taking threes is well worth it.

The fact is, every good team i've seen at UNCW or anywhere has a crunch time player. Ingram, Blizzard and Carter were always there at the end of games. We have to find that player now.
That player is not on this roster but I do agree you need at least one guy who can create his own shot. I loved Blizzard but he was not a create his own shot guy.
01-05-2019 12:04 PM
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SEA33HAWK Offline
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Post: #54
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Not saying it will happen, but I think Simms could be a TJ Carter kind of diamond in the rough. He is progressing at a pretty good rate since the start of the season. And I still believe, looking at his body, he may not be done growing.
01-05-2019 01:36 PM
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surfsalot Offline
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Post: #55
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-05-2019 01:36 PM)SEA33HAWK Wrote:  Not saying it will happen, but I think Simms could be a TJ Carter kind of diamond in the rough. He is progressing at a pretty good rate since the start of the season. And I still believe, looking at his body, he may not be done growing.

Pipe dreams.... Nothing more!
01-05-2019 07:36 PM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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Post: #56
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
That's pretty cold...Sims is going to be really good and is already contributing as a freshman.
01-05-2019 08:04 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #57
The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-05-2019 08:04 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  That's pretty cold...Sims is going to be really good and is already contributing as a freshman.

Yeah I agree. So far there’s not much to dislike about his game as a freshman. He’ll only get better.


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01-06-2019 08:09 AM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #58
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-06-2019 08:09 AM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-05-2019 08:04 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  That's pretty cold...Sims is going to be really good and is already contributing as a freshman.

Yeah I agree. So far there’s not much to dislike about his game as a freshman. He’ll only get better.


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It's also a bit too soon to be making TJ Carter predictions.
01-06-2019 10:17 AM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #59
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-05-2019 12:04 PM)jumpinmullet Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 05:57 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-30-2018 04:46 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  I made a similar point in the CofC thread as well but didn’t directly address the free throws. My point was our lack of any players outside of Cacok that can put the ball in the paint on offense. For offense, we have Cacok and a plethora of shooters. Face it, we aren’t going to see many FTs at all this year, and they will mostly be taken by Cacok. Wouldn’t surprise me if it will cost us 5-6 more close games during conference play. Toews can get in there on occasion. I’d like in the future if he just went to the bucket with it instead of kicking back out to a shooter. There were 2-3 in that game last night where he had a layup but kicked back out while in the air. I like his team ball mentality and he’s an amazing talent, but start scoring my man!!!!

Also, I and I’m sure others agree with your opinion of using more zone defense. Maybe McGrath agrees also, since he used it a lot more (yet it was confusing why he went back to man).


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Fornes can get to the basket, shoot, pass or make FT's if he's fouled. I'm not sure why he's been put on the back burner under McGrath. Cylla can also face the basket and drive. And, both of them are excellent FT shooters.

Also, this comes down to strategy of the coaches again. THEY need to know these statistics and have a plan to fix them. No way on earth we have NO players who can handle the ball well enough to drive to the basket. These are D1 college players. It's really a matter of who we get the ball to, where they get the ball, and the picks we set to allow them to get to the basket in crucial situations.

If the coaches told the players to drive to the bucket instead of settling for jumpers, they would. Or, if we don't have players who can get to the basket we need to shoot a whole lot more three pointers to close this scoring gap. No reason to take a bunch of jumpers from 2 point range when the cost/benefit of taking threes is well worth it.

The fact is, every good team i've seen at UNCW or anywhere has a crunch time player. Ingram, Blizzard and Carter were always there at the end of games. We have to find that player now.
That player is not on this roster but I do agree you need at least one guy who can create his own shot. I loved Blizzard but he was not a create his own shot guy.
I didn't miss a game his 4 years and he had no issue creating his own shot. His step back was quick and deadly. Certainly, was easier for him when he'd come flying off a screen but he had no trouble getting his 1 on 1 either!
01-06-2019 01:10 PM
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SEA33HAWK Offline
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Post: #60
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-06-2019 10:17 AM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-06-2019 08:09 AM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-05-2019 08:04 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  That's pretty cold...Sims is going to be really good and is already contributing as a freshman.

Yeah I agree. So far there’s not much to dislike about his game as a freshman. He’ll only get better.


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It's also a bit too soon to be making TJ Carter predictions.

Ummm, it was just a thought of a possibility. Never a prediction. The same as my thought of Dodd and him being built like Cacok. With both players, the proof is still in the pudding.
01-06-2019 01:13 PM
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