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The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses
12-31-2018 01:37 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.
12-31-2018 05:29 PM
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HAWKING Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Happy New Year. In regards to defense, with the obvious modern day basketball emphasis on the 3pt shot the Seahawks shortcomings are concerning. Teams that do not normally shoot the 3pt shot well are having 'career days' against the defense. Most certainly the mental edge in this area is a factor. When teams scout the Hawks they quickly see #322 ranking and an adjusted FG% of 56%. Therefore, shots that normally don't fall are suddenly falling, even versus a solid contest as the HC has pointed out. (Charleston scored 19 pts per game on the 3pt shot @31% before scoring 33pts @48% vs UNCW) Every team adjusts their closeouts (Short/Long closeout) based on the scout report but there is an obvious team defensive concept at work here that suggests valuing defending paint area over the 3pt line (Pack Line?). Individual players efficiency vs 'SPOT UP' shots can again be seen in SYNERGY stats as well as Individual OVERALL defensive efficiency. It is important to note how many times players are actually defending the ball (Toews 10% of the time, Fornes 9% and Cylla 8%). Toews gives up a team best of 0.84 PPP followed by Cylla at 0.94 PPP. (Matchups matter, yes) All other players are over the 1.0 PPP level. Statistics never tell the entire story and experienced basketball people should continue to use the 'eye test' to make assessments, however, those same judgements can almost always be supported by quality statistical analysis.
(This post was last modified: 01-01-2019 08:35 AM by HAWKING.)
01-01-2019 08:18 AM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
Good breakdown! Interesting defensive stats that you have here. Toews and Cylla look to be doing a decent job. It would be cool to see Gadsden's #'s because my eye test likes him as well. Taylor should be good defensively with his quickness. Others on the team have the tools to be very good with technique and experience work. Good posting my man. You really break it down nice and are truly a hoops guy!
01-01-2019 11:04 AM
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Gary Miller Offline
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Post: #25
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

Yeah we definitely lack a "killer" on this squad up to this point. Last year we had Talley, and before that Ingram held that role when it came to late game plays. Go back to the Campbell and Davidson games they had Clemons and Grady to take over the game down the stretch. I think we did a better job not allowing Riller to get any good looks late in the game Saturday, but CofC still found a way to make plays to close it out. They are a good team, so it's not surprising. The defense has gotten better, but we need to show consistency. They have several winnable games coming up, they need to build some momentum going in to the weekend up in New York and Boston.
01-02-2019 08:45 AM
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Seahawksilver Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-01-2019 08:18 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  It is important to note how many times players are actually defending the ball (Toews 10% of the time, Fornes 9% and Cylla 8%). Toews gives up a team best of 0.84 PPP followed by Cylla at 0.94 PPP. (Matchups matter, yes) All other players are over the 1.0 PPP level. Statistics never tell the entire story and experienced basketball people should continue to use the 'eye test' to make assessments, however, those same judgements can almost always be supported by quality statistical analysis.

Hawking, it is clear to me that you are getting your info from an App or premium stats site which is great. Keep that good stuff coming!

In the above info, those stats clearly do not pass the "eye test". Cylla may be defending the ball 8% of the time, but he clearly gives up way more than 0.94 PPP. Now whether or not that is his fault or the fault of the defense the staff makes them play, I couldn't tell you. But they clearly play too much help side defense.
01-03-2019 09:10 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role
01-03-2019 12:29 PM
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Gary Miller Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role

https://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20...-game-woes

Alex's article in the Star News digs a little deeper into this. Look at all the buzz 82 has caused. Great job!
01-03-2019 12:33 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 12:33 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role

https://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20...-game-woes

Alex's article in the Star News digs a little deeper into this. Look at all the buzz 82 has caused. Great job!

The Hawk's Nest... Consistently driving UNCW success. lol

04-rock
01-03-2019 12:50 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #30
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 12:50 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:33 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role

https://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20...-game-woes

Alex's article in the Star News digs a little deeper into this. Look at all the buzz 82 has caused. Great job!

The Hawk's Nest... Consistently driving UNCW towards success. lol
(too bad they don't read and listen )
04-rock
fixed :)
01-03-2019 01:21 PM
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Gary Miller Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 01:21 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:50 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:33 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role

https://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20...-game-woes

Alex's article in the Star News digs a little deeper into this. Look at all the buzz 82 has caused. Great job!

The Hawk's Nest... Consistently driving UNCW towards success. lol
(too bad they don't read and listen )
04-rock
fixed :)

If you watch the CB interview I posted in the JMU thread, Alex actually mentions the message board to him. Can't recall him ever doing that before, but CB has officially been put on notice lol.
01-03-2019 01:33 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #32
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 01:33 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 01:21 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:50 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:33 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role

https://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20...-game-woes

Alex's article in the Star News digs a little deeper into this. Look at all the buzz 82 has caused. Great job!

The Hawk's Nest... Consistently driving UNCW towards success. lol
(too bad they don't read and listen )
04-rock
fixed :)

If you watch the CB interview I posted in the JMU thread, Alex actually mentions the message board to him. Can't recall him ever doing that before, but CB has officially been put on notice lol.
lmao!
01-03-2019 01:39 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role


Incorrect. These stats were ONLY for four very close games and I picked them to eliminage the games we weree fouling because we were so far behind. In fact, we were TIED in three of the four games where the stats were used, and only 5 behind CofC with 4 minutes left.

My point is that one of the main reasons we got behind in games that were tied with 4 minutes left is because our opponents were focing us to either foul or they would score can weren't. That resulted in the huge discrepancy in FT's and us getting behind when we were tied, it wasn't the cause.
01-03-2019 02:13 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #34
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 12:33 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role

https://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20...-game-woes

Alex's article in the Star News digs a little deeper into this. Look at all the buzz 82 has caused. Great job!


Very disconcerting quote from the article "The free throw disparity is something McGrath admits he was unaware of, but it’s not as sizeable as it appears. Of the 18 fouls UNCW has committed in the final four minutes, 10 have come with under a minute to play in an attempt to extend the game.".

First, why didn't McGrath know this? Second, perhaps WE should be forcing the issue and causing fouls? Still doesn't explain WHY we only had 5 attempts in 17 minutes over 4 games at crunch time.
01-03-2019 02:17 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #35
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 02:13 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role


Incorrect. These stats were ONLY for four very close games and I picked them to eliminage the games we weree fouling because we were so far behind. In fact, we were TIED in three of the four games where the stats were used, and only 5 behind CofC with 4 minutes left.

My point is that one of the main reasons we got behind in games that were tied with 4 minutes left is because our opponents were focing us to either foul or they would score can weren't. That resulted in the huge discrepancy in FT's and us getting behind when we were tied, it wasn't the cause.
So we don't foul intentionally in close games? I'd argue the exact opposite. If you are down by 20 no point in fouling. If you are down by 2,3,4,5 under a minute you almost have to foul sometimes. Your point still stands on needing to drive more, but to say that you don't foul intentionally in a close game is simply not correct.
01-03-2019 02:25 PM
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Gary Miller Offline
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Post: #36
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 02:25 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:13 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So many little things that we are not doing add up to a bunch of close, frustrating losses

True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role


Incorrect. These stats were ONLY for four very close games and I picked them to eliminage the games we weree fouling because we were so far behind. In fact, we were TIED in three of the four games where the stats were used, and only 5 behind CofC with 4 minutes left.

My point is that one of the main reasons we got behind in games that were tied with 4 minutes left is because our opponents were focing us to either foul or they would score can weren't. That resulted in the huge discrepancy in FT's and us getting behind when we were tied, it wasn't the cause.
So we don't foul intentionally in close games? I'd argue the exact opposite. If you are down by 20 no point in fouling. If you are down by 2,3,4,5 under a minute you almost have to foul sometimes. Your point still stands on needing to drive more, but to say that you don't foul intentionally in a close game is simply not correct.

I know for a fact we intentionally fouled multiple occasions late in the Campbell game. Matter of fact, a couple of missed free throws were why Taylor was able to have the shot to tie at the end of regulation. We definitely intentionally fouled at the end of the Davidson game a couple of times, same with Charleston. I think we only intentionally fouled once in the Mercer game, if I remember correctly.
01-03-2019 02:36 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #37
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 02:36 PM)Gary Miller Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:25 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:13 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 12:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 05:29 PM)82hawk Wrote:  True but this particular problem is shocking. The discrepancy shows not only us taking far fewer FT's in crunch time, but it also displays a lack of a killer instinct when it matters. Fighting to score on offense during crunch time is a matter of mentality and will power to win. Our oppenents are showing that will to win and we aren't.

We are also fouling to stop the clock in crunch time because we are always behind. I know that doesnt account for all the discrepancy but it does play a role


Incorrect. These stats were ONLY for four very close games and I picked them to eliminage the games we weree fouling because we were so far behind. In fact, we were TIED in three of the four games where the stats were used, and only 5 behind CofC with 4 minutes left.

My point is that one of the main reasons we got behind in games that were tied with 4 minutes left is because our opponents were focing us to either foul or they would score can weren't. That resulted in the huge discrepancy in FT's and us getting behind when we were tied, it wasn't the cause.
So we don't foul intentionally in close games? I'd argue the exact opposite. If you are down by 20 no point in fouling. If you are down by 2,3,4,5 under a minute you almost have to foul sometimes. Your point still stands on needing to drive more, but to say that you don't foul intentionally in a close game is simply not correct.

I know for a fact we intentionally fouled multiple occasions late in the Campbell game. Matter of fact, a couple of missed free throws were why Taylor was able to have the shot to tie at the end of regulation. We definitely intentionally fouled at the end of the Davidson game a couple of times, same with Charleston. I think we only intentionally fouled once in the Mercer game, if I remember correctly.

agree, that was my point to 82. Those FT numbers are skewed because of this. Games were close, but, we were the ones trailing.
01-03-2019 02:45 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #38
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
You're missing my point

1. The Campbell stats are from the OT period, not the end of regulation.

2. We were TIED in three games and only behind 5 in the other, we were not behind and needing to foul. Yes, we ended up getting behind, obviously, which is why we lost.

Even if I remove the last 1 minute, the disparities exist...and that's why we got behind.

Here's how the games have ended. Our opponents go for the high percentage shots driving to the glass or in the post, and either shooting layups or drawing fouls. WE go for lower percentage jump shots and three pointers where we are drawing almost no fouls and therefore no FT attempts.

The fouls in the last minute are a symptom of a problem, not a cause. If WE were going for higher percentage shots at the glass, then WE would be hitting 60% and not 46% and WE would be shooting 30 FT's instead of 5.

I'm not disagreeing that we do intentionally foul in the last minute, i'm focusing on WHY. And regardless of the reason, the last minute does not account for a 30-5 disparity in FT attempts during the last 4 minutes of tight games. Not to mention, if you watched the games, most of our fouls were not intentional whether it was the last minute or last 4 minutes.

Another symptom. According to thee article, we have taken 26 shots in the last 4 minutes of those games and our opponents have only taken 15. So, we are plus 11 on FG attempts. But, we've only made 11 shots while our opponents have made 9. So, plus 2 on made FG's.

In any event, i'm glad Alex got this in front of the coach....:-)
(This post was last modified: 01-03-2019 04:52 PM by 82hawk.)
01-03-2019 04:43 PM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #39
The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Here's how the games have ended. Our opponents go for the high percentage shots driving to the glass or in the post, and either shooting layups or drawing fouls. WE go for lower percentage jump shots and three pointers where we are drawing almost no fouls and therefore no FT attempts.

This is the spot on portion of his point. Hell, you could make this point for 75% of the minutes in our games. We shoot A LOT of jumpers and don’t drive into the paint very much at all. Not going to get to the line equally or even close to it if your offense is 95% jump shots (not sure of that exact stat, that’s just the eye test estimate).


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01-03-2019 04:49 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #40
RE: The last 4 minutes and why we aren't winning
(01-03-2019 04:49 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 04:43 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Here's how the games have ended. Our opponents go for the high percentage shots driving to the glass or in the post, and either shooting layups or drawing fouls. WE go for lower percentage jump shots and three pointers where we are drawing almost no fouls and therefore no FT attempts.

This is the spot on portion of his point. Hell, you could make this point for 75% of the minutes in our games. We shoot A LOT of jumpers and don’t drive into the paint very much at all. Not going to get to the line equally or even close to it if your offense is 95% jump shots (not sure of that exact stat, that’s just the eye test estimate).


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Very true. So, the million dollar question. Does anything change?
01-03-2019 05:25 PM
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