(12-30-2018 08:53 AM)moehler Wrote:  APP returns almost everyone from a team that won the conference and will finish very close to the top 25, and you have them 3rd? Really? Wow, if APP lives up to expections, and still finishes 3rd, it’s going to be a hell of a yr for the SBC.

I think you guys are building up to a letdown. If I were an APP fan, I would probably be just as optimistic with the winning tradition you guys have. But I'm not, so I see it more objectively. You guys could get near the Top 25, but it would be an over-achievement in my opinion.

I’m normally a glass half empty when it comes to APP football, but there is no reason to believe we won’t be as good, probably better then this yrs team, we return almost everyone on offense that was the best in the SBC, with a new HC who is known for improving offenses. Defensively, we only have to replace our starting NT and LB, and corner, the NT and LB will be tough, but no shortage of talent waiting in the wings. If the new staff does nothing but manage the team, and doesn’t screw it up with any radical changes, no reason based on what we did this yr, to not pencil in atleast 10 wins.

GS has App, Troy, and Ark St on the road next season. How we fair in those 3 games will likely determine our standing (not that all the other games are a given), it will be nearly impossible to go 3-0 in those games.

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(12-30-2018 09:46 AM)moehler Wrote:  I’m normally a glass half empty when it comes to APP football, but there is no reason to believe we won’t be as good, probably better then this yrs team, we return almost everyone on offense that was the best in the SBC, with a new HC who is known for improving offenses. Defensively, we only have to replace our starting NT and LB, and corner, the NT and LB will be tough, but no shortage of talent waiting in the wings. If the new staff does nothing but manage the team, and doesn’t screw it up with any radical changes, no reason based on what we did this yr, to not pencil in atleast 10 wins.

Two words: Coaching change.

They're not nearly as seamless in general as App fans seem to think they are.

Here's a list of recent G5 head coaches that left to take other HC jobs:
Willie Fritz leaving Georgia Southern
Jeff Brohm leaving WKU
Justin Fuente leaving Memphis
Scott Frost leaving UCF
Dino Babers leaving Bowling Green
Matt Campbell leaving Toledo
Matt Rhule leaving Temple
Willie Taggart leaving USF.
Tom Herman leaving Houston

In every case there was at least some level of regression, and UCF might be the only team to match their win total from before the transition, and even they arguably aren't quite as good as last season.

(12-30-2018 09:46 AM)moehler Wrote:  I’m normally a glass half empty when it comes to APP football, but there is no reason to believe we won’t be as good, probably better then this yrs team, we return almost everyone on offense that was the best in the SBC, with a new HC who is known for improving offenses. Defensively, we only have to replace our starting NT and LB, and corner, the NT and LB will be tough, but no shortage of talent waiting in the wings. If the new staff does nothing but manage the team, and doesn’t screw it up with any radical changes, no reason based on what we did this yr, to not pencil in atleast 10 wins.

You are making a lot of assumptions. Most agreed that Satterfield was the best coach in the SBC. He will not be easily replaced by a guy who has zero head coaching experience. You can't just assume that Ted Roof is just going to "rock" along and not change anything on defense. I'd expect some real growing pains. Anything else is just looking at it with gold colored glasses.

Where are the assumptions? It’s almost the exact team for this yr, with a hc who has proven everywhere he goes to improve the offense, all of the sudden there going to forget how to play for this yr to next yr? Like I said Drink is a really smart guy, he knows if he doesn’t make any major changes, which I’m pretty sure he won’t, on either side of the ball, he has a top 25 team, maybe top 20, he doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel, just maintain, tweet a few things, and we should be right there again in the mix for the SBC championship. I’ll say this, if he does try to overhaul the program, he will have a very short stay in Boone.

East
Troy (due to home schedule and coach if no change)
App St (loaded but coach change)
Georgia Southern (solid and could surprise)
Georgia State/Coastal tie

West
ULL (theirs to lose)
Ark St
ULM
Texas State/USA tie

Playoff between Top and 3rd or 4th best from West
Troy/App/Georgia Southern vs ULL or Ark St

Since impossible TROY/ULL with TROY winning

(12-30-2018 01:20 AM)Neers12 Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 12:09 AM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  Interesting to see people expecting us to get worse in Campbell’s second year.

Not so much getting worse, just a little farther behind some of the other teams in getting where you're going. South Alabama is always a tough cookie to deal with in the sun belt. But you guys have taken a few steps back. You could be much better next year and finish with a similar conference record. But no one underestimates you guys. From an App perspective you guys have been one of our toughest opponents since we joined the belt.

If we finish last, that’s getting worse. Not saying it won’t happen, just weird to see multiple people expecting it.

We brought in some big, experienced o-linemen to beef up our weakest position. We also signed 247s top ranked JUCO dual threat QB, our 2nd weakest position. We return some solid WRs (and brought in some much needed speed) and a lot on defense. I think we’ll make some pretty big strides next year.

(12-30-2018 12:41 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  If we finish last, that’s getting worse. Not saying it won’t happen, just weird to see multiple people expecting it.

We brought in some big, experienced o-linemen to beef up our weakest position. We also signed 247s top ranked JUCO dual threat QB, our 2nd weakest position. We return some solid WRs (and brought in some much needed speed) and a lot on defense. I think we’ll make some pretty big strides next year.

The problem is, good coaches improve statistically, even if it doesn't show on the scoreboard. South Alabama was emphatically worse, by more than a full touchdown per game, than the year before. Campbell was supposed be a great hire. Outside of a few gems, his recruiting classes have been very lackluster.

Most of us knew that Withers was a bad hire at Texas State after a year or two. Lots of bobcat fans held on to the belief that maybe he was purposely only playing underclassmen for some big payoff that never came. It was a failed experiment. The rest of the SBC knew before they did.

It might be too early to say that about Campbell, but it's not looking good from outside in.

GS takes a step back record wise next year even though they might actually be better. Their schedule is NASTY... @LSU, @Minnesota, @Arkansas State, @Appalachian State, @ Troy... 3rd in the division is right. App & Troy will fight it out for #1 in the east and overall.

(12-30-2018 01:19 PM)Scrotumus Wrote:  GS takes a step back record wise next year even though they might actually be better. Their schedule is NASTY... @LSU, @Minnesota, @Arkansas State, @Appalachian State, @ Troy... 3rd in the division is right. App & Troy will fight it out for #1 in the east and overall.

Agreed on the scheduling. I wouldn't complain about 7-5 at all at this point.

(12-30-2018 01:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(12-30-2018 12:41 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  If we finish last, that’s getting worse. Not saying it won’t happen, just weird to see multiple people expecting it.

We brought in some big, experienced o-linemen to beef up our weakest position. We also signed 247s top ranked JUCO dual threat QB, our 2nd weakest position. We return some solid WRs (and brought in some much needed speed) and a lot on defense. I think we’ll make some pretty big strides next year.

The problem is, good coaches improve statistically, even if it doesn't show on the scoreboard. South Alabama was emphatically worse, by more than a full touchdown per game, than the year before. Campbell was supposed be a great hire. Outside of a few gems, his recruiting classes have been very lackluster.

Most of us knew that Withers was a bad hire at Texas State after a year or two. Lots of bobcat fans held on to the belief that maybe he was purposely only playing underclassmen for some big payoff that never came. It was a failed experiment. The rest of the SBC knew before they did.

It might be too early to say that about Campbell, but it's not looking good from outside in.

The system that Campbell wants to run is 180 degrees from what Jones ran. Our system is about running the ball on offense and speed on defense. We didn’t have enough speed on defense and didn’t have the horses up front to run the ball on offense. Campbell (rather stubbornly) insisted on running the ball, even if we were down big in a game. This started to pay off late as we ran the ball pretty well the last 3 games. With some more beef and talent in the trenches, and the speed defensively we brought in, I think this will be a different team next year. Of course, we’ll have to wait and see though.

That schedule for GS is as tough a schedule you’ll probably ever see for a Sunbelt team, LSU is going to be really good, and Minnesota might have a top 20 team, then traveling to APP, Troy, and Ark St. Man, I don’t know who is in charge of scheduling, but that is just an insainly hard schedule, agree GS will probably be better next yr, but fewer wins to show for their efforts.

I honestly don’t know how Spav will do in his first year. But I do think some of y’all are underestimating where we’ll finish. And I for one am just fine with that.

I hope that your coaches and players look past us the same way.

We certainly won’t be worse than the Withers coached teams you’ve become accustomed to seeing. I think Spav (at least) doubles Withers’ win total from last year. Where that puts us in the standings remains to be seen.

I reserve the right to change my prediction after the spin cycle on this coaching carousel ends. Likely with NB going somewhere. This morning when I posted 90% sure NB at TROY now about (truthfully) at around 2%

Lots of optimism for App.

Not seeing much optimism for second year head coach CCL. Could this be due to him simply righting the ship and maximizing the talent that was here all along. Most seem to think so. I'm not so sure myself but if that's the case coaching has a roll in performance no matter who's on the roster.

See Tyson Summers and NFL running back Matt Breida or Payton award winning QB Jason Foster the year after Brian VanGoober benched him. The definition of catastrophic failure to recognize talent. Both catastrophic head coaching fails.

I drank the Spav-erade... I think we will finish top 2 in our division at least.

I will also go on record as saying for the first time in our short Sun Belt history... We will finally get the Cajun monkey off our back. (please God let this happen)

Absolute homerism, but finally putting some money into the assistants will yield positive results for us. Oh, and I figured we had 5-6 wins coming to us already even if Withers had stayed on (finally getting experience and depth on the team will do wonders I hear).

I think it'll be a toss up between us and App for 2nd and 3rd. Our schedule is insane, plus we play App at their place so that's an L. While App's choice for a DC is puzzling, they are still stacked and unless Drink pulls a Summers, no way does App slip that much. It's good to see Sunbelt improving enough to make it harder to play the ranking game though!

Some interesting observations by all of you.

EAST--I agree Troy is the favorite. They're going to be very, very good. Now, that changes if Neal gets hired away by someone and that chapter isn't completed yet.
g
App will take a step back, despite all the returnees. I would feel differently if more Satt assistants would be returning. The new staff will spend a lot of time evaluating and that will set them back. That being said, I think they are a solid second in the East.

Georgia Southern and Coastal will be closer together than anyone thinks. CCU got bowl eligible despite playing a second and third string QB. They run the football well and they'll be better next season. Not only is the schedule brutal for GS, also consider this: The most important stat in college football is turnover margin, and the Eagles were one of the nation's best. No way they duplicate that next year. I think the Eagles are no better than 7-5 and could wind up 5-7.

Georgia State has work to do.

WEST
The Cajuns will probably be favored with nine starters back on offense, including the entire offensive line that enabled Louisiana to have three backs with 2700 yards rushing. All three backs return. There are question marks on defense, but solid recruiting, plus the return of Joe Dillon will cover up sins. The question mark is at quarterback. If that is answered positively, then the Cajuns should be in good shape. Cajuns do not play Georgia State. They get App and Troy at home, but have to travel to GS and A-State.

Arkansas State will be good again. They lose some good skill people, with Hansen being the most prominent, but they'll still be good offensively. Their defense always seems to have someone step up. The Cajuns have to travel to Jonesboro, where they've won only twice in 25 years. That's a big bugaboo to overcome.

I think Texas State is the most improved team next year. I don't know if they can get to six wins, but their defense will be among the league's best and if Spivital can get some balance out of the offense, they could break a few hearts.

Will ULM be better next year? Hard to say. They lose some key guys, but still have Caleb Evans, who is one of the league's most exciting players...when he's on. A consistent Evans could lead ULM to a bowl. But if not, then they could take a step back.

South Alabama will be better as well. But they still might be last in the West.

Sun Belt Theory says AState wins the West in 2019 because the annual UL/AState bruhaha is in Jonesboro, and the home team always wins in that series.

Key for the Red Wolves is winning their home games with GS and UL, then continuing their domination at ULM. If they win those three games, they should win the division, even with a potential loss at Troy. If they can't figure out those home games however, then you might as well congratulate UL on a 2nd straight West title, because they'll be loaded.