(12-29-2018 01:01 AM)WKUYG Wrote: Schedule favors ODU and I say the conference race comes down to ODU and Western, if and at this point a big if...
Western comes together as a team.
Right now I agree with the below...assuming Western becomes a team, quickly. And start going to their AA and NA meetings
I agree that this list looks pretty close. I think there is a VERY HIGH probability that Old Dominion wins the regular season. They have a very good team and as you said a very favorable schedule. I do think it is possible that they fizzle down the stretch though. They will not have played any of the top conference teams on the road until late in the season. That can give them a false sense of confidence. When you play a team on the road you get their best shot. ODU will not have to face that (at least against a top team) until February. They will play @ UAB on 2/7 and they will have to play two of the top teams on the road in the schedule TBD. That could be bad for confidence heading into the tournament (see MTSU's late season losses last year).
WKU is a wild card. We are still EXTREMELY talented, just very young. Our highs are VERY high and our lows are pretty darn low. We have to learn consistency. If we do we will be very competitive. BUT we did not get a favorable schedule at all. We have to play Marshall, ODU, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, AND North Texas all on the road. We're going to have to win quite a few road games to compete with Old Dominion. Possible, but I haven't seen any evidence that we can do that consistently. I think we likely finish 3rd or 4th but we will get better as the season goes along. Nobody and I mean NOBODY will want to draw us in March. I might raise our spot if by some miracle we beat Wisconsin today.
North Texas. Not sure what to make of them. I'm looking through their schedule and there's just not a lot of meat there. The win at Indiana St was a solid win. But I don't think there is enough evidence either way. They could be really good and contend for the title or they may get shocked when they get into conference and are playing stronger teams and they get everybody's best shot (as tends to happen in conference play). There's something to be said for playing a tough non-conference schedule, but there's something to be said for building confidence and pride in your winning record. Playing too difficult a schedule can destroy your confidence. And they do have a pretty favorable schedule playing WKU, Marshall, La Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB at home.
Southern Miss. Close losses at Kansas St. and Wichita St. No real signature win to hang their hat on. I think they're solid. Tough road games @La Tech, @ODU, @North Texas, but they get a return game from La Tech, and they get Marshall and WKU at home. I think Louisiana Tech is probably a little better, but Tech did not get as favorable a conference schedule.
Louisiana Tech. Seems like they are consistently in or near that top tier. I am tempted to put them ahead of Southern Miss if for no other reason than they beat Wichita State whereas Southern Miss did not. I am also impressed that Tech won at Louisiana. Not that UL is all that great this year but that is one of those games where they are always going to get the Cajuns' best shot, especially on the road. And Tech didn't just beat them, they destroyed them. That is the kind of game you have to win to do well in conference. Tech has to play North Texas, Old Dominion, and USM on the road, all tough games.
Marshall. Has Marshall disappointed a little bit this season? Yeah. Have they missed Peneva a lot? You bet. BUT. I think every coach that has prepped their team for Marshall told their guys how Marshall beat Wichita State in the NCAA tournament and how they returned basically everybody. I think Marshall has played this season with a target on their back, something that they didn't have to do last year. And you look at their losses... most of them are forgivable losses. @Maryland. @Texas A&M. @Duquense (9-3). They lost by one point at home to Toledo... but Toledo is 9-1. Disappointing? Yes. Disaster? No. I think Marshall has played a tough schedule and will bounce back some in conference. As with WKU the schedule gods did not do them any favors. They have to play @Old Dominion, @WKU, @Louisiana Tech, @ Southern Miss, AND @North Texas. Because of that tough road through conference... and because of the loss of Peneva... I don't like their chances to win the regular season. But every single team that plays them will be playing Elmore roulette. Is tonight the night he goes off? Do you feel lucky? Well do ya, punk? Like WKU I think Marshall will be dangerous come March. In part because of their experience, in part because of Elmore's ability to take over a game, and in part because they have played a difficult schedule (conference and non-conference) that will prepare them for the CUSA tournament when everybody gets everybody's best shot.
Because of the schedule and the quality of those teams I feel very confident about Old Dominion and North Texas getting byes. I think there will be a dogfight for the other two slots between WKU, Marshall, Southern Miss, and Louisiana Tech. I will go with an order something like this:
1) ODU
2) North Texas
3) WKU
4) Marshall
5) Southern Miss
6) Louisiana Tech
7) UTSA
8) UAB
9) UTEP
10) FIU
11) FAU
12) MTSU
13) Charlotte
14) Rice