Looking at pie-in-the-sky, end-of-season scenarios when the conference schedule hasn't even commenced yet is very premature.

(12-27-2018 09:57 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  Looking at pie-in-the-sky, end-of-season scenarios when the conference schedule hasn't even commenced yet is very premature.

It's not looking at pie in the sky scenarios. It's just an observation that 12/14 teams are already 100% out of the At Large talk and we haven't even started conference play yet.

Just sucks. This conference has so much potential but for the last 4-6 years in basketball thats all it has been.....potentially a 2 bid league. Becoming a 2 bid league is almost a must to justify this conference.

(12-27-2018 09:55 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  The nice thing about the NET is it doesnt reward for the "quality loss" like the RPI did. You win games, you move up in NET. I think we could all be pleasantly surprised by how the NET favors mid majors who win games and not .500 cartel schools. Of course, the humans may change the rules on the fly as someone said.

the humans WILL change the rules on the fly to benefit a P5 conference

(12-27-2018 04:29 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 02:55 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 02:40 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  North Texas and ODU have shots at earning an At Large bid if they finish out OOC strong and can take care of things in conference. No one else has a shot imo.

I guess you are just looking at records and not who they beat?

3 D2
1-12
2-11
2-9
4-8
5-6
3-9
Portland 7-7
Hawaii 8-5
Indiana State 8-4

that's not how you earn a at large bid...

UNT would probably be staying home even with a 30-3 record if one of those losses came in the CUSA Tourney.

12-1 is a lot better than being 6-6 but the UNT OOC schedule is awful... not how you earn a at large bid

NCAA Selection committee gives out 1 at large bid per year essentially to a Non P7 league. The chances that either of those teams get it, even with good RPI's are slim and none. Especially if Buffalo, who actually has an at large worthy resume, somehow fails to win the MAC.

Good observation. Buffalo should be a at large bid, if they lose in the MAC tournament. The MAC had two bids a couple of years ago.

I would expect NT and ODU will lose a few conference games over the course of the season. Reality is that CUSA is not a two bid conference at this point. CUSA has had some pretty bad out of conference losses and Marshall will probably get killed by UVA in a few days.

CUSA will be a one bid league this season, however we have shot for a better seed since CUSA's conference RPI has improved and is trending up. Here are the CUSA conference RPIs for the last 5 years from realtimerpi.com.

2018/2019 - #11
17/18 - #18
16/17 - #23
15/16 - #22
14/15 - #17

Based on this post on reddit, looks like we are roughly 13th ranked conference based on average NET rankings.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

Honestly 13 isn’t as terrible as I thought it would be. I think we need to be 11 or better to have a shot at an at large though.

(12-27-2018 09:36 PM)Fatalisk Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 04:10 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 02:40 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  North Texas and ODU have shots at earning an At Large bid if they finish out OOC strong and can take care of things in conference. No one else has a shot imo.

North Texas has zero shot with that non conference schedule if they won every game after besides CUSA title game....ODU same as well......Another season, another 1 bid only for CUSA......

Agree to disagree. If either UNT or ODU run table until tournament championship they’re in.

I think they both could absorb another loss or two and still get in. Problem is, both teams probably have 4 more losses on the schedule. CUSA geography, and strength at the top make the conference tougher than folks realize.

(01-01-2019 11:02 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Based on this post on reddit, looks like we are roughly 13th ranked conference based on average NET rankings.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

Theres no way the AAC is the best conference in basketball, nor is the Big South, America East or Big Sky better than CUSA.

(01-02-2019 10:04 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(01-01-2019 11:02 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Based on this post on reddit, looks like we are roughly 13th ranked conference based on average NET rankings.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

Theres no way the AAC is the best conference in basketball, nor is the Big South, America East or Big Sky better than CUSA.

When just looking at averages of all teams within the conference, then Big 10 is best. That spreadsheet is just in alphabetical order.

And while you might be right about the other conferences, it's the same old story for us. The bottom teams in our conference are WAY down deep, which drags down the average. Really don't think the average person understands how tough this conference is at the top.

Link Net Rankings ...https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Link RPI Rankings…. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/

(01-02-2019 12:01 PM)odu09 Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 10:04 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(01-01-2019 11:02 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Based on this post on reddit, looks like we are roughly 13th ranked conference based on average NET rankings.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

Theres no way the AAC is the best conference in basketball, nor is the Big South, America East or Big Sky better than CUSA.

When just looking at averages of all teams within the conference, then Big 10 is best. That spreadsheet is just in alphabetical order.

And while you might be right about the other conferences, it's the same old story for us. The bottom teams in our conference are WAY down deep, which drags down the average. Really don't think the average person understands how tough this conference is at the top.

That's why I'm not a fan of conference ratings — they give you a good idea of the average of teams within the conference, but people who rely on numerical quantification extrapolate that to define conference difficulty, which is not always accurate.

The WCC was one spot behind the CAA last season in RPI, but you'd be hard-pressed to say it was weaker or easier to win than the CAA — for my money, I'd much rather play Charleston and Northeastern to reach the NCAAs than Gonzaga and St. Mary's. But the WCC had four sub-250 teams compared to the CAA's two, so there you go.

(01-02-2019 02:37 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 12:01 PM)odu09 Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 10:04 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(01-01-2019 11:02 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Based on this post on reddit, looks like we are roughly 13th ranked conference based on average NET rankings.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

Theres no way the AAC is the best conference in basketball, nor is the Big South, America East or Big Sky better than CUSA.

When just looking at averages of all teams within the conference, then Big 10 is best. That spreadsheet is just in alphabetical order.

And while you might be right about the other conferences, it's the same old story for us. The bottom teams in our conference are WAY down deep, which drags down the average. Really don't think the average person understands how tough this conference is at the top.

That's why I'm not a fan of conference ratings — they give you a good idea of the average of teams within the conference, but people who rely on numerical quantification extrapolate that to define conference difficulty, which is not always accurate.

The WCC was one spot behind the CAA last season in RPI, but you'd be hard-pressed to say it was weaker or easier to win than the CAA — for my money, I'd much rather play Charleston and Northeastern to reach the NCAAs than Gonzaga and St. Mary's. But the WCC had four sub-250 teams compared to the CAA's two, so there you go.

Agree 100%. If our conference gets a better average it just means the middle and bottom tier teams are getting better, which is an interesting thing to watch. So far, I don't think we've yet to have a year where all the traditional good programs are good in a single year. Truly baffling.

(01-02-2019 02:37 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 12:01 PM)odu09 Wrote:  

(01-02-2019 10:04 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(01-01-2019 11:02 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Based on this post on reddit, looks like we are roughly 13th ranked conference based on average NET rankings.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

Theres no way the AAC is the best conference in basketball, nor is the Big South, America East or Big Sky better than CUSA.

When just looking at averages of all teams within the conference, then Big 10 is best. That spreadsheet is just in alphabetical order.

And while you might be right about the other conferences, it's the same old story for us. The bottom teams in our conference are WAY down deep, which drags down the average. Really don't think the average person understands how tough this conference is at the top.

That's why I'm not a fan of conference ratings — they give you a good idea of the average of teams within the conference, but people who rely on numerical quantification extrapolate that to define conference difficulty, which is not always accurate.

The WCC was one spot behind the CAA last season in RPI, but you'd be hard-pressed to say it was weaker or easier to win than the CAA — for my money, I'd much rather play Charleston and Northeastern to reach the NCAAs than Gonzaga and St. Mary's. But the WCC had four sub-250 teams compared to the CAA's two, so there you go.

I think the numbers show that (CORRECTED)
1 Big Ten 37.62
2 Big 12 41.78
3 ACC 46.14
4 SEC 48.46
5 Big East 54.56
6 AAC 93.73
7 Pac-12 97.64
8 WCC 115.67
9 MAC 131.64
10 SoCon 146
11 Atlantic 10 146.69
12 Ivy League 150.71
13 MWC 155.5
14 C-USA 158.46
15 MVC 162
16 WAC 172.88
17 Sun Belt 183
18 CAA 189.78
19 Horizon 190.44
20 ASUN 208.5
21 Big South 210.8
22 OVC 211.45
24 Patriot 213.44
25 Big West 216.38
26 Summit League 222.88
27 Big Sky 233.6
29 America East 240.62
30 NEC 244.78
31 MAAC 259.1
32 Southland 265
33 SWAC 300.67
34 MEAC 315
I think this is a fair and logical metric of the Conferences as of this date with OOC play finished.

monarx said "There is no way the AAC is the best conference in basketball, nor is the Big South, America East or Big Sky better than CUSA."

AAC is listed as the 6th
Big South 7 behind #14 CUSA - Big South is listed #21
America East 13 behind #14 CUSA America East is listed # 29
Big Sky 11 behind #14 CUSA Big Sky #27
Link...…. https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba..._analysis/

(12-27-2018 09:36 PM)Fatalisk Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 04:10 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 02:40 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  North Texas and ODU have shots at earning an At Large bid if they finish out OOC strong and can take care of things in conference. No one else has a shot imo.

North Texas has zero shot with that non conference schedule if they won every game after besides CUSA title game....ODU same as well......Another season, another 1 bid only for CUSA......

Agree to disagree. If either UNT or ODU run table until tournament championship they’re in.

Unfortunately, that might well be what it takes. I don't see that happening.