RE: Official Game Thread: Furman
Time for the real season to start with the toughest, deepest SoCon lineup in years.
The stats mavens at Kenpom make #116 10-4 ETSU a 3 point home court favorite over #102 12-1 Furman. Home court makes a big difference in their predictions, although the Paladins have done awfully well on the road. Kenpom has not been swayed by Furman’s 12-1 record or its #24 national ranking. They put them 3rd in the SoCon behind #71 Wofford and #93 UNCG, but ahead of #116 ETSU.
12-1 Furman has gone on the road to knock off #18 9-4 Villanova, the defending national champs, and #86 Final Four team 7-6 Loyola. As those two teams have struggled, the wins now look a little less impressive than they did initially. But still pretty darn good. On the downside, Furman struggled at home to beat #180 9-5 Gardner Webb in OT, and REALLY struggled at home to beat #315 3-11 Western Carolina in double OT. Most recently they were beaten soundly on the road by a physically superior #41 LSU team 75-57.
The Paladins are personified by Senior leader Matt Rafferty who can’t jump, can’t bench press, can’t outrun you, but will outscore (16.5 ppg on .657 FG%), out rebound (9.2), out defend (2.2 steals), out pass (4.4 assists) and outsmart you. They are physically sound, but not the biggest, fastest, most athletic or deepest. Yet they are skilled, smart, patient and do not fold or panic. They will fight you for 40 minutes, and have shown they can win down the stretch in close games on the road. Jordan Lyons, Clay Mounce, Matt Rafferty, Alex Hunter and Noah Gurley have all really upped their games. And more importantly, Coach Bob Richey has molded them into a confident team that has learned how to play together and win.
They depend heavily on 6 guys:
At 33 minutes apiece, 6-8 215 Sr. Matt Rafferty, 5-11 203 Jr Jordan Lyons and 5-11 170 So Alex Hunter are 3 of the top 5 in minutes per game in the conference.
6-7 200 So Clay Mounce gets 28 minutes and 6-8 190 Rs Fr Noah Gurley gets 25.
They have been hurt by injuries to tough physical Andrew Brown 6-4 212 Sr who has only played in 6 of 12 games, averaging 21.3 minutes. But since he got 15 points in their last game versus LSU, I expect that he’ll be ready for the Bucs.
6-5 185 Rs-So Tre Clark has filled in, averaging 17.7 minutes. True freshman Guard 6-3 187 Mike Bothwell has been a regular contributor with 13 minutes.
They are high scoring, with 81.6 ppg, 66th in D1, to ETSU’s 78.7. With 10.7 made 3’s per game they are 13th in D1, about even with Wofford and significantly ahead of ETSU with 8.4, shooting .361 to .359 for ETSU. They are 19th in D1 with 18.2 assists per game to 15.2 for ETSU. Overall Kenpom rates them 125th for offensive efficiency to 195th for ETSU.
Their rebounding margin (+4.1) is third in the SoCon to Wofford (+8.2) and ETSU (+14.1, best in D1). On paper the Bucs were also better rebounders than Wofford or Illinois, but on the court got whupped by both.
Defensively, they lead the SoCon in steals with 9.5 per game and are second in t.o. margin with +3.31 to the Bucs paltry +0.07. They rank a solid 88th in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive stat. But the Bucs have moved up to an excellent 55th in that key Kenpom figure, best in the SoCon by that measure.
The Bucs played solid against Creighton and Georgia State, beat Georgia Southern but came up short on the road at Wofford and Illinois. They have still got the potential to be something exceptional. Time to take the next step forward and start proving it in conference.
Front Court:
#32 6-8 215 Sr. Matt Rafferty, 33 minutes, 16.5 ppg on .657 FG%, .167 from 3, 4.4 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.6 blocks
#45 6-7 200 So. Clay Mounce, 28 minutes, 11.9 ppg, .457 from 3 with 1.6 makes, 6.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 blocks
#04 6-8 190 Rs-So Noah Gurley, 25 minutes 8.7 ppg, .306 from 3 1.0 makes, 3.7 rebounds,
#02 6-8 245 Rs-Jr Jalen Williams, 6 games, 8.5 minutes, 3.8 ppg, 3.8 rebounds
#20 6-7 206 Fr Jalen Slawson, 9 games, 7.6 minutes, 1.0 ppg, 2.2 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 1.0 blocks
Guards:
#23 5-11 203 Jr Jordan Lyons, 33 minutes, 17.8 ppg, .345 from 3 with 3.9 makes, 1.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists
#10 5-11 170 So Alex Hunter, 33 minutes, 9.1 ppg, .349 from 3 with 1.7 makes, 4.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists
#05 6-4 212 Sr Andrew Brown, 6 games, 21.3 minutes, 9.3 ppg, .444 from 3 with 2.0 makes, 2.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists
#00 6-5 185 Rs-So Tre Clark, 17.7 minutes, 5.4 ppg, .462 from 3 with 0.5 makes, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists
#03 6-3 187 Fr Mike Bothwell, 13.5 minutes 4.1 ppg, .227 from 3 with 0.4 makes 1.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists
(This post was last modified: 12-27-2018 09:16 AM by swvabucsfan.)
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