(12-20-2018 08:38 AM)Wolfman Wrote: 1. Guaranteeing the ACC champ a spot is a double edged sword. While is isn't very likely, it is possible Clemson could have lost to Pitt in the CCG. Pitt had a great year but they are not a CFP team. Should a late-season case of the flu keep Clemson out of the CFP?
Even with division-less, which I am advocating for, this past year still likely would have resulted in a Clemson/Pitt match-up (using conference records as the standard since the Tigers were 8-0 and both Pitt and SU were 6-2, but Pitt holding the edge with its win over SU). So if Pitt won, under this scenario, they go to the CFP and Clemson must get in as one of the two wildcards. If the higher ranked team in the CFP gets in simply by their ranking in the CFP, then why play a CCG? In some ways CCGs could become the equivalent of a minor bowl game where attendance and ratings will start to decline if they don't have true meaning.
Quote:2. I don't see limiting the at-large affecting ND. Anytime ND is 12-0, maybe even 11-1, they are going to be a CFP candidate.
While I don't believe the reasoning behind this initiative as put forth by Hokie Mark is sound, and agreeing with you that a 12-0 ND will always get a wildcard spot, technically speaking currently an ND at 11-1 is vying for one of four spots. By being an independent and having 6 of 8 spots going to P5 auto-bids and the 6th to the best of the G5 (although I still think this should be restricted to the G5 being ranked at least in the Top 12, unless a P5 champion is ranked out of the Top 16 - something like this was done for BCS Bowl representation, iirc) the 11-1 Irish would be competing for one of two spots instead of one of four spots. Would this be enough for the Irish to rethink their independence stance? I don't believe so at all. But their holding fast to independence could have a very minor potential benefit for the ACC as the below item discusses.
Quote:3. I see the value of the orange bowl going down. If 2 ACC teams make the CFP, they are down to the 3rd place team. The Orange Bowl wants Miami, FSU or Clemson. They don't care about anybody else in the ACC.
The Orange Bowl itself (and what it may or may not want) has nothing whatsoever to do with how it was valued by ESPN. As I recall, the Orange Bowl was desperate NOT to wind up in the same boat as the Fiesta and the Peach in the new world order, which is where it was heading early in the development stages of the CFP.
The early returns on the Orange Bowl as a NY6 (non-CFP semi-finalist) are it lags behind the Rose Bowl but so far has slightly outperformed the Sugar in terms of both ratings and attendance (but will likely lose ground in both with a Georgia-Texas match-up this year, particularly attendance wise).
As Hokie Mark points out though, in an 8-team playoff it will basically (assuming contract bowls survive in some format under a new CFP) ensure the Sugar will the vast majority of times have #3 SEC vs #2 B12. Two ACC teams making the CFP will likely be rare so the Orange Bowl will have in most years a #2 ACC vs #3 (or #4) B1G or a #4 (or #5) SEC or an 11-1/10-2 ND.
Using this year as an example (with none of the Rose, Sugar, and Orange as semi-finalist games) and with ND losing once the CFP would have been Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Washington, Central Florida, Georgia, and Michigan. The Sugar would have been Texas vs LSU, the Rose Washington State vs Penn State and Notre Dame would have fallen to the Orange Bowl. Which probably would have been the case even had the Irish had two losses this year under this scenario.
Again this latter point is immaterial since with more games in the CFP the likelihood of the Sugar, Rose, and Orange not being hosts for CFP games year in and year out is unlikely unless the quarter-final games are played during the 15th week of current season (alongside the Army/Navy game) and at the home of the higher ranked quarter-final team then the semi-finals (and the NY6) could remain the same as they are now.
Cheers,
Neil