this would be the result, conference by conference.

Conf..Win..Lose.. Pct

AAC....6......1... .857
MWC...5......1... .833
SEC.....9.....2... .818
PAC.....5.....2... .714
MAC....3.....3... .500
IND.....1.....1... .500
SBC.....2.....3... .400
B1G....3......6... .333
ACC....3......8... .273
USA....1......5... .167
B12.....1......6... .143
ND......0......1... .000

Of course, all favorites won't win. But which ones?

(12-11-2018 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  this would be the result, conference by conference.

Conf..Win..Lose.. Pct

AAC....6......1... .857
MWC...5......1... .833
SEC.....9.....2... .818
PAC.....5.....2... .714
MAC....3.....3... .500
IND.....1.....1... .500
SBC.....2.....3... .400
B1G....3......6... .333
ACC....3......8... .273
USA....1......5... .167
B12.....1......6... .143
ND......0......1... .000

Of course, all favorites won't win. But which ones?

That is useful to know when judging conference bowl records. Some conferences have favorable matchups.

Though what really matters is is the game is like vs like. E.g. if PAC #4 is playing B12 #4 and B12 #4 is favored by 10, that is still a fair match when evaluating conferencs.

Some conferences are favored because the smart money knows that the conference has better teams.

(12-11-2018 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  this would be the result, conference by conference.

Conf..Win..Lose.. Pct

AAC....6......1... .857
MWC...5......1... .833
SEC.....9.....2... .818
PAC.....5.....2... .714
MAC....3.....3... .500
IND.....1.....1... .500
SBC.....2.....3... .400
B1G....3......6... .333
ACC....3......8... .273
USA....1......5... .167
B12.....1......6... .143
ND......0......1... .000

Of course, all favorites won't win. But which ones?

Ken, go back and check those lines on the Sun Belt: Here's what I have:

Tulane -3.5 over UL
GA Southern -1 to -1.5 over EMU
App State -7 over MTSU
Troy vs Buffalo No Line
Ark St -1.5 over Nevada

That would leave 3-1 with 1 game I can't find a line on.

(12-12-2018 02:25 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-11-2018 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  this would be the result, conference by conference.

Conf..Win..Lose.. Pct

AAC....6......1... .857
MWC...5......1... .833
SEC.....9.....2... .818
PAC.....5.....2... .714
MAC....3.....3... .500
IND.....1.....1... .500
SBC.....2.....3... .400
B1G....3......6... .333
ACC....3......8... .273
USA....1......5... .167
B12.....1......6... .143
ND......0......1... .000

Of course, all favorites won't win. But which ones?

Ken, go back and check those lines on the Sun Belt: Here's what I have:

Tulane -3.5 over UL
GA Southern -1 to -1.5 over EMU
App State -7 over MTSU
Troy vs Buffalo No Line
Ark St -1.5 over Nevada

That would leave 3-1 with 1 game I can't find a line on.

My numbers were based on the opening lines. Some may have changed since then. I had Buffalo -4 and Nevada -1.5 in the early line. The early line is how the bookmakers saw it. Changes are driven by bettors' opinions. And a 1.5 spread is practically pick'em. Historically favorites at that level only win slightly above 50% of the time. For the Belt, only App State should be considered a solid favorite.

You should rework the numbers as some players have announced they are not playing...and even a few coaching changes

(12-12-2018 08:39 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  You should rework the numbers as some players have announced they are not playing...and even a few coaching changes

If this were more than a purely hypothetical exercise, it might be worth doing. Betting lines change on a daily basis, or even more often. I'd rather just wait and see how everybody does for real and rework the numbers then.

(12-12-2018 08:39 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  You should rework the numbers as some players have announced they are not playing...and even a few coaching changes

Yes

(12-12-2018 07:41 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 02:25 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-11-2018 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  this would be the result, conference by conference.

Conf..Win..Lose.. Pct

AAC....6......1... .857
MWC...5......1... .833
SEC.....9.....2... .818
PAC.....5.....2... .714
MAC....3.....3... .500
IND.....1.....1... .500
SBC.....2.....3... .400
B1G....3......6... .333
ACC....3......8... .273
USA....1......5... .167
B12.....1......6... .143
ND......0......1... .000

Of course, all favorites won't win. But which ones?

Ken, go back and check those lines on the Sun Belt: Here's what I have:

Tulane -3.5 over UL
GA Southern -1 to -1.5 over EMU
App State -7 over MTSU
Troy vs Buffalo No Line
Ark St -1.5 over Nevada

That would leave 3-1 with 1 game I can't find a line on.

My numbers were based on the opening lines. Some may have changed since then. I had Buffalo -4 and Nevada -1.5 in the early line. The early line is how the bookmakers saw it. Changes are driven by bettors' opinions. And a 1.5 spread is practically pick'em. Historically favorites at that level only win slightly above 50% of the time. For the Belt, only App State should be considered a solid favorite.

I'm aware that -1 is basically a pickem, but again, this is a hypothetical exercise in which the favorites all won. If you are going to pretend the favorites all won, you can't say the favorite was someone different than the actual vegas line. Otherwise, we're really playing what are YOUR favorites. Lines change for a reason. The Nevada/AState line changed almost immediately because Nevada had two starters announce they were transferring pre bowl.

Bowl game lines always change a ton because of the number of players, especially at the P5 level that announce they are skipping the bowl now. It's really important to consider the way the line is changing and not just assume its because of better influence.

Yep, Memphis will be without OC, DC, and unanimous AA Darrell Henderson.

(12-12-2018 12:14 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Yep, Memphis will be without OC, DC, and unanimous AA Darrell Henderson.

Wake has 9 guys who started various games this season who are out of the bowl via injury, Memphis as of now reports 0, so Henderson makes one.

Big 12 with a tough draw.

#1, #5, #13, #20 for the top 4 games. Only favored matchup has Grier and his LT sitting out.

(12-12-2018 11:36 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 07:41 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 02:25 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-11-2018 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  this would be the result, conference by conference.

Conf..Win..Lose.. Pct

AAC....6......1... .857
MWC...5......1... .833
SEC.....9.....2... .818
PAC.....5.....2... .714
MAC....3.....3... .500
IND.....1.....1... .500
SBC.....2.....3... .400
B1G....3......6... .333
ACC....3......8... .273
USA....1......5... .167
B12.....1......6... .143
ND......0......1... .000

Of course, all favorites won't win. But which ones?

Ken, go back and check those lines on the Sun Belt: Here's what I have:

Tulane -3.5 over UL
GA Southern -1 to -1.5 over EMU
App State -7 over MTSU
Troy vs Buffalo No Line
Ark St -1.5 over Nevada

That would leave 3-1 with 1 game I can't find a line on.

My numbers were based on the opening lines. Some may have changed since then. I had Buffalo -4 and Nevada -1.5 in the early line. The early line is how the bookmakers saw it. Changes are driven by bettors' opinions. And a 1.5 spread is practically pick'em. Historically favorites at that level only win slightly above 50% of the time. For the Belt, only App State should be considered a solid favorite.

I'm aware that -1 is basically a pickem, but again, this is a hypothetical exercise in which the favorites all won. If you are going to pretend the favorites all won, you can't say the favorite was someone different than the actual vegas line. Otherwise, we're really playing what are YOUR favorites. Lines change for a reason. The Nevada/AState line changed almost immediately because Nevada had two starters announce they were transferring pre bowl.

Bowl game lines always change a ton because of the number of players, especially at the P5 level that announce they are skipping the bowl now. It's really important to consider the way the line is changing and not just assume its because of better influence.

You guys are seriously overthinking this. If there were a way I could delete this thread I would.