(12-11-2018 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Big 12 has no reason to expand for any G5 school.

Thank You

(12-11-2018 10:19 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(12-11-2018 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Big 12 has no reason to expand for any G5 school.

If someone is willing to pay to make it worth their time, there is a reason.

If I’m Fox I probably like the idea of another couple eastern time zone schools in Big XII. Now do I like it enough to give everyone in the league more money? Maybe. I don’t see it but I’m just a fan.

ESPN? Between UF, FSU, Miami not sure there is much desire to increase the Florida investment. Getting rid of UCF’s CFP distraction has some value but raising the payday to every B12 seems a stretch.

Now if there were smoke of a significant portion of PAC-12 fleeing to B12 then a carrot to prevent a Pac12 collapse could be a good investment but it doesn’t feel like there is critical mass for that.

I’d think Fox bolstering Big East to get UConn is higher on the plausibility scale. They could plug a hole here and there on FS1 and maybe actually carry some football on FS2 to make it happen and I’m skeptical of that

USF, UCF, and UConn are just not worth $30m a year to FOX or anyone else.

Y'all are forgetting that when the Big 12 went through their big negotiation 2 years ago, many Big 12 sources said that they'd add Cincinnati if they could find a 12th school that was worthwhile.

UCF appears like they may be that 12th school.

But please, don't start thinking that USF or UCF are #11. The Big 12 has already vetted spot #11 pretty thoroughly.

(12-11-2018 11:45 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Y'all are forgetting that when the Big 12 went through their big negotiation 2 years ago, many Big 12 sources said that they'd add Cincinnati if they could find a 12th school that was worthwhile.

UCF appears like they may be that 12th school.

But please, don't start thinking that USF or UCF are #11. The Big 12 has already vetted spot #11 pretty thoroughly.

Cincinnati does make a good bit of sense. Do you have any source on this?

(12-12-2018 06:28 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(12-11-2018 11:45 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Y'all are forgetting that when the Big 12 went through their big negotiation 2 years ago, many Big 12 sources said that they'd add Cincinnati if they could find a 12th school that was worthwhile.

UCF appears like they may be that 12th school.

But please, don't start thinking that USF or UCF are #11. The Big 12 has already vetted spot #11 pretty thoroughly.

Cincinnati does make a good bit of sense. Do you have any source on this?

UC homer... I've never heard the rumor.

Yes, UC is a solid fit, but if you are going up there, you are stretching yourself too much by adding a single Fla school at #12.

With the current model, it makes more sense to just add UC as #11 and then play an 8 game schedule with the +1 CCG. You can have permanent fixtures like UC/WVU and UT/TTech/OU/OSU, but you don't need divisions anymore.

It makes all the sense adding UC exclusively rather than looking for another school. UCF will not move alone like that and even if they do, road games to ISU, TTech, and Kansas is notably worse than the western travel they are subjected to now.

There are a number of G-5 schools that are more valuable than current P-5 schools. Due to geography, past conference alliances, and bad luck they are on the outside looking in. I remember having breakfast with Chris Del Conte about 6 or 7 years ago. He was very pro UCF. Now that he carries a much bigger stick as the Texas AD, he perhaps has the pull to include them come 2024. We will see.

The Big 12 has shown that their model is working for right now. Expansion (or dissolution) will happen if it starts to look like it isn't a viable model moving forward. But the small size offers several advantages in the current landscape:

1. Divide the pot fewer ways.
2. Higher percentage of blue bloods.
3. Play high profile teams (either because of name or rankings) every year
4. From an individual team POV, less competition for a championship. 1 in 14 chance in a big conference, 1 in 10 in the Big 12, all things equal.
5. Transitively, less competition for a CFP spot. Obviously the Big 12 doesn't have a guaranteed spot, but the champion is often going to be in good shape for the playoff and with a better chance for being a champion, it's probably transitively a better shot at the CFP than a team from a 14 team conference.

No one is going to compete with the SEC in terms of level of play, but the league is on par or better than the other conferences, which should meet OU and UT's need. As long as the TV revenue model is strong, there's no reason to expand.

(12-12-2018 09:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

As usual Mandel is wrong.

UCF hasn't had anywhere near the amount of sustained success that Utah and TCU had prior to being called up.

TCU had had double digit wins in the four seasons prior to moving to the Big XII, and had had winning seasons 9 out of the previous 10 years.

Utah had double digit win seasons in the previous three and hadn't had a losing season in nine years.

(12-12-2018 10:08 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 09:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

As usual Mandel is wrong.

UCF hasn't had anywhere near the amount of sustained success that Utah and TCU had prior to being called up.

TCU had had double digit wins in the four seasons prior to moving to the Big XII, and had had winning seasons 9 out of the previous 10 years.

Utah had double digit win seasons in the previous three and hadn't had a losing season in nine years.

Utah (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 2
#of coaches: 2

TCU (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 1
#of coaches: 1

UCF (AAC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 3
Wins: 2 and playing this year
#of coaches: 3

(12-12-2018 09:55 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  There are a number of G-5 schools that are more valuable than current P-5 schools. Due to geography, past conference alliances, and bad luck they are on the outside looking in. I remember having breakfast with Chris Del Conte about 6 or 7 years ago. He was very pro UCF. Now that he carries a much bigger stick as the Texas AD, he perhaps has the pull to include them come 2024. We will see.

UCF, USF, Boise State, and UNLV's biggest weakness is that they didn't exist as universities when the original decisions about affiliation were being made. If they did exist (in Boise State's case as a 4 year college), perhaps the playing field would be different.

(12-12-2018 11:02 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 10:08 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 09:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

As usual Mandel is wrong.

UCF hasn't had anywhere near the amount of sustained success that Utah and TCU had prior to being called up.

TCU had had double digit wins in the four seasons prior to moving to the Big XII, and had had winning seasons 9 out of the previous 10 years.

Utah had double digit win seasons in the previous three and hadn't had a losing season in nine years.

Utah (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 2
#of coaches: 2

TCU (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 1
#of coaches: 1

UCF (AAC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 3
Wins: 2 and playing this year
#of coaches: 3

The main thing wrong with this comparison is that the top rated G-5 school did not have an automatic spot in the BCS-NY6 Bowl games until TCU and Utah had left the MWC/CUSA/WAC etc.

Back then the Big 12 had to expand. They were down to 8 schools. They added 1 inside to footprint TCU and 1 outside WVU. Today would the TV execs want to substitute UCF for TCU? IDK so ask them.

(12-12-2018 11:28 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 11:02 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 10:08 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 09:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

As usual Mandel is wrong.

UCF hasn't had anywhere near the amount of sustained success that Utah and TCU had prior to being called up.

TCU had had double digit wins in the four seasons prior to moving to the Big XII, and had had winning seasons 9 out of the previous 10 years.

Utah had double digit win seasons in the previous three and hadn't had a losing season in nine years.

Utah (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 2
#of coaches: 2

TCU (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 1
#of coaches: 1

UCF (AAC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 3
Wins: 2 and playing this year
#of coaches: 3

The main thing wrong with this comparison is that the top rated G-5 school did not have an automatic spot in the BCS-NY6 Bowl games until TCU and Utah had left the MWC/CUSA/WAC etc.

True but even then the Knights make it to a BCS game last year and this year as they were top 12.

“The Highest ranked non AQ school within the top 12 ( or top 16 if a bcs conference champ is ranked lower than 16) gets an auto-bid to a bcs bowl. If there are other non-aq schools also ranked that high they become an at large team.”

(12-12-2018 10:08 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 09:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

As usual Mandel is wrong.

UCF hasn't had anywhere near the amount of sustained success that Utah and TCU had prior to being called up.

TCU had had double digit wins in the four seasons prior to moving to the Big XII, and had had winning seasons 9 out of the previous 10 years.

Utah had double digit win seasons in the previous three and hadn't had a losing season in nine years.

They're not very far off though.

Double digit wins 5 times this decade. Won Peach and Fiesta Bowls this decade. Mutliple first round picks. Undefeated last two seasons.

They really only ever fell off because O'Leary mailed it in, it's easy to see them continuing to win as long as they recruit at a high level.

(12-12-2018 11:28 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 11:02 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 10:08 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-12-2018 09:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

As usual Mandel is wrong.

UCF hasn't had anywhere near the amount of sustained success that Utah and TCU had prior to being called up.

TCU had had double digit wins in the four seasons prior to moving to the Big XII, and had had winning seasons 9 out of the previous 10 years.

Utah had double digit win seasons in the previous three and hadn't had a losing season in nine years.

Utah (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 2
#of coaches: 2

TCU (MWC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 2
Wins: 1
#of coaches: 1

UCF (AAC)
BCS/NY6 Appearances: 3
Wins: 2 and playing this year
#of coaches: 3

The main thing wrong with this comparison is that the top rated G-5 school did not have an automatic spot in the BCS-NY6 Bowl games until TCU and Utah had left the MWC/CUSA/WAC etc.

So beating the Big12 Champion #6 Baylor doesn’t count?

The OP is about UCF to the Big12. I think beating the Big12 champ in a NY6 bowl is relevant.

None of these teams control the politics. I am just saying UCF has been invited more often and has won 2 games.

If the XII were dead set on going to 12, which hasn't been reported, the only option I can see considering at this time would be: Cincinnati and BYU (football-only). That brings their basketball membership to 11 for a 20-game round robin. Football goes to 12 with two divisions:

North/South split
North: BYU, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St, Cincinnati, West Virginia
South: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St

or

East/West zipper
East: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Cincinnati, West Virginia
West: BYU, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa St

(12-12-2018 11:59 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  If the XII were dead set on going to 12, which hasn't been reported, the only option I can see considering at this time would be: Cincinnati and BYU (football-only). That brings their basketball membership to 11 for a 20-game round robin. Football goes to 12 with two divisions:

North/South split
North: BYU, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St, Cincinnati, West Virginia
South: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St

or

East/West zipper
East: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Cincinnati, West Virginia
West: BYU, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa St

I could see other combos but the method of divisions that makes the most sense to me is:

SWC schools + 2
Big 8 schools + 1

Move WVU and the two additions where needed. Play one permanent rival across divisions.

there pro's & con's to 10 schools
less inventory
2 division races
markets
recuriting area
less exporsure
i would think B-12 would be intrested in state schools
Buffalo & Conn, and presence in NYC to boot

(12-12-2018 12:30 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  there pro's & con's to 10 schools
less inventory
2 division races
markets
recuriting area
less exporsure
i would think B-12 would be intrested in state schools
Buffalo & Conn, and presence in NYC to boot

Texas and Texas Tech fan: "New York City?!"