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How Valuable is Nathan Knight: A Statistical Analysis
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WMSportsBlog Offline
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How Valuable is Nathan Knight: A Statistical Analysis
We thought we'd break out our Excel skills for this one; essentially, we wanted to see if Knight’s game-by-game foul totals affected his minutes played, average point totals, and the team’s winning percentage.

Our basic theories were as follows:

1. Knight averages less minutes per game when he finishes a contest with more fouls.
2. Knight averages less points per game when he finishes a contest with more fouls.
3. The more fouls that Knight finishes a game with, the less of a chance W&M has to win.

Check out the analysis (complete with graphs!) below. Some interesting stuff.


Link: https://wmsportsblog.com/2018/12/06/how-...ght-to-wm/
12-06-2018 07:33 PM
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NC Tribe Offline
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RE: How Valuable is Nathan Knight: A Statistical Analysis
Would be nice to see this redone with just his Sophomore and junior seasons. As a freshman he split time with Whitman at the 5. Whether Nathan was in foul trouble or not that season, his minutes were dictated somewhat by how Jack was playing. So, for around 40 percent of the games you are reporting on, foul trouble was not the determining factor in Nathan's minutes.
12-07-2018 08:34 AM
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RE: How Valuable is Nathan Knight: A Statistical Analysis
(12-07-2018 08:34 AM)NC Tribe Wrote:  Would be nice to see this redone with just his Sophomore and junior seasons. As a freshman he split time with Whitman at the 5. Whether Nathan was in foul trouble or not that season, his minutes were dictated somewhat by how Jack was playing. So, for around 40 percent of the games you are reporting on, foul trouble was not the determining factor in Nathan's minutes.

Definitely -- I was interested myself. After taking out Knight's freshman year stats, his individual numbers change slightly (most notably in PPG) from those listed in the article, but W&M's overall winning percentage difference remains almost exactly the same.

Minutes Played Per Game (Sophomore & Junior Year)
With 4/5 Fouls - 25.61
With 3 Fouls - 25.16
With Less than 3 Fouls - 30.27

Points Per Game (Sophomore & Junior Year)
With 4/5 Fouls - 16.11
With 3 Fouls - 14.63
With Less than 3 Fouls - 20.91

W&M Winning PCT
With 4/5 Fouls - 0.444
With 3 or less Fouls - 0.633
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2018 11:59 AM by WMSportsBlog.)
12-07-2018 11:54 AM
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ColonelEbirt Offline
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RE: How Valuable is Nathan Knight: A Statistical Analysis
Great analysis - and this is pretty telling. The guy needs to avoid foul trouble and stay on the floor. He scores ~5 points more and most importantly the team win percentage jumps substantially when he has limited fouls. I really want to see his turn into beast mode in conference play.
12-07-2018 12:45 PM
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RE: How Valuable is Nathan Knight: A Statistical Analysis
(12-07-2018 12:45 PM)ColonelEbirt Wrote:  Great analysis - and this is pretty telling. The guy needs to avoid foul trouble and stay on the floor. He scores ~5 points more and most importantly the team win percentage jumps substantially when he has limited fouls. I really want to see his turn into beast mode in conference play.

100%. We're planning to conduct the same analysis toward the second half of the season, once we get more data for this year! (and we'll exclude his freshman year data then)

Will be interesting to see if/how it changes.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2018 01:38 PM by WMSportsBlog.)
12-07-2018 01:38 PM
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