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December 5, 2009
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bearcatdp Offline
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December 5, 2009
What if Texas had lost? (Good read!)

https://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com...r-5th-2009
 
12-05-2018 09:09 PM
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Z-Fly Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
Mo said he was told they still wouldn’t have made it.
 
12-05-2018 09:30 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-05-2018 09:30 PM)Z-Fly Wrote:  Mo said he was told they still wouldn’t have made it.

Bcs formula at that time said otherwise. Uc's computer ratings were incredibly strong. Better than Texas in many cases despite Texas being unbeaten too. Big east was number 2 sagarin conference that year and well regarded by computers generally.
 
12-05-2018 09:35 PM
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'nati streets Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
Yeah, I think the author's hopes and bemusing what-ifs are shared by so many of us. Remember walking home from Mac's that night having a bad feeling about where things were headed...
It is good to remember that we belong as much as any of the P5!
 
12-05-2018 09:39 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
We also jumped TCU that next week to finish the regular season #3. If Texas lost we were in.
 
12-05-2018 09:59 PM
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RealDeal Online
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-05-2018 09:59 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  We also jumped TCU that next week to finish the regular season #3. If Texas lost we were in.
We don't know that. It was widely believed TCU was next in. Although we finished #3 it was very close and we were well regarded by the computers. It's just as likely that Texas losing would have helped TCU pass them up in enough rankings we were already ahead of Texas in and that would have been enough for TCU to jump to #2. Well never know for sure but based on what experts were saying at the time I think it would have been TCU.
 
12-05-2018 10:20 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-05-2018 10:20 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(12-05-2018 09:59 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  We also jumped TCU that next week to finish the regular season #3. If Texas lost we were in.
We don't know that. It was widely believed TCU was next in. Although we finished #3 it was very close and we were well regarded by the computers. It's just as likely that Texas losing would have helped TCU pass them up in enough rankings we were already ahead of Texas in and that would have been enough for TCU to jump to #2. Well never know for sure but based on what experts were saying at the time I think it would have been TCU.

There's no way to say with 100% certainty but our advantage in the computer ratings was unlikely to change much. Your computer ratings number isn't actually this team is 1,2, 3 got the purpose of calculating. You have some value (this year for example top 3 are bama's sagarin value is 103, clemson's is 100 and Georgia is 93) 1 and 2 could theoretically be farther apart in the computer ratings than 2 and 10. Their value in the computer ratings relative to us is what mattered and that wasn't changing. If Texas remained ahead of us in the human polls but behind TCU that was what might have kept us out.
 
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2018 10:33 PM by bearcatmark.)
12-05-2018 10:30 PM
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bctn8n Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
Best sporting event I ever attended.
 
12-06-2018 06:56 AM
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bearcatmill Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-05-2018 10:20 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(12-05-2018 09:59 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  We also jumped TCU that next week to finish the regular season #3. If Texas lost we were in.
We don't know that. It was widely believed TCU was next in. Although we finished #3 it was very close and we were well regarded by the computers. It's just as likely that Texas losing would have helped TCU pass them up in enough rankings we were already ahead of Texas in and that would have been enough for TCU to jump to #2. Well never know for sure but based on what experts were saying at the time I think it would have been TCU.

TCU was not from a BCS conf at the time. No way the powers that be were going to let a non BCS team in. UC would have reluctantly took the number 2 spot. Also, as Mark stated, there are computer numbers to back it up as well.
 
12-06-2018 07:18 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
I still think the pollsters would have adjusted Cincinnati down enough to let an upper class school have the #2 spot.
 
12-06-2018 08:33 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 08:33 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  I still think the pollsters would have adjusted Cincinnati down enough to let an upper class school have the #2 spot.

What upper class school? If Texas lost their competition was boise state from the wac and TCU from the mountain west. Even if they kept Texas at 2 after the loss (no chance btw) I think uc's computer numbers were such that it wouldn't matter. Uc had a really strong computer profile which was a big part of the bcs.
 
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2018 08:54 AM by bearcatmark.)
12-06-2018 08:54 AM
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Def Berkkat Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
That B12 game was one of the biggest shaft jobs I've ever seen. That game was OVER. The look on Colt McCoy's face told it all. He knew it was over.

... but of course they put 1 second back on the clock so Texas could win.
 
12-06-2018 09:12 AM
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Dannyboy Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
If the Texas voters all flipped to TCU they would have gotten a boost in the polls. Who knows.
 
12-06-2018 09:42 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 08:54 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-06-2018 08:33 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  I still think the pollsters would have adjusted Cincinnati down enough to let an upper class school have the #2 spot.

What upper class school? If Texas lost their competition was boise state from the wac and TCU from the mountain west. Even if they kept Texas at 2 after the loss (no chance btw) I think uc's computer numbers were such that it wouldn't matter. Uc had a really strong computer profile which was a big part of the bcs.

12-1 Florida was one spot behind us in the final AP poll, and barely behind us in the final Coaches poll (1280 to 1240). If Texas had lost, you don't think they would have magically risen a little higher in each poll to pass us up?

TCU was already ahead of us in both polls. If the final polls had gone Alabama, Florida, TCU, UC, the computers would not have saved us.

However, considering that we were in the semi-elite of the Big East at the time, they may have let us reach the top two as a better alternative to the embarrassment of an Alabama-Florida rematch. Today, they would do it without even being embarrassed.
 
12-06-2018 10:17 AM
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bearcatfan Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
And if UC had been selected for the NCG, what would Kelly have done?

He still would have accepted the ND position but surely he would have coached the game.
 
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2018 10:32 AM by bearcatfan.)
12-06-2018 10:32 AM
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 10:32 AM)bearcatfan Wrote:  And if UC had been selected for the NCG, what would Kelly have done?

He still would have accepted the ND position but surely he would have coached the game.

His ego would not let him skip the NCG-- and Notre Dame would have probably hired someone else since he was not willing to leave right away. BK would have then left the following year for another big gig-- Michigan, Florida and Stanford were the big openings the following season.

The real interesting part is the ripple effect that would have had on our program:

1. With a NCG appearance in hand, does UC go to the ACC when the second raid occurred in 2011 or later in place of Louisville after Maryland bolted?
2. A BK led 2010 squad would not have finished 4-8. They may not have won the BE, but they most certainly go to a bowl.
3. Who replaces BK following the 2010 season? Jones would have left CMU after 2009 regardless. With a NCG appearance in the most recent past and a 5 year bowl streak, we could have probably gotten someone pretty good.
4. With an invite into the ACC, we may have been able to have retained that new coach.
 
12-06-2018 10:52 AM
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Ragpicker Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 08:54 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-06-2018 08:33 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  I still think the pollsters would have adjusted Cincinnati down enough to let an upper class school have the #2 spot.

What upper class school? If Texas lost their competition was boise state from the wac and TCU from the mountain west. Even if they kept Texas at 2 after the loss (no chance btw) I think uc's computer numbers were such that it wouldn't matter. Uc had a really strong computer profile which was a big part of the bcs.

The computers had us #2 so I believe Mark is right in his analysis.

Fast forward just four years later and the computers will show that UC and every other G5 school has zero chance - ZERO. And history, along with UCF's back to back undefeated seasons, has proven it.

Three teams this century have had longer winning streaks than UCF. All 3, Miami Alabama and Florida State, won National Championships during those streaks. UCF is blocked from even competing for one.
 
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2018 02:12 PM by Ragpicker.)
12-06-2018 02:04 PM
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crex043 Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 10:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(12-06-2018 10:32 AM)bearcatfan Wrote:  And if UC had been selected for the NCG, what would Kelly have done?

He still would have accepted the ND position but surely he would have coached the game.

His ego would not let him skip the NCG-- and Notre Dame would have probably hired someone else since he was not willing to leave right away. BK would have then left the following year for another big gig-- Michigan, Florida and Stanford were the big openings the following season.

The real interesting part is the ripple effect that would have had on our program:

1. With a NCG appearance in hand, does UC go to the ACC when the second raid occurred in 2011 or later in place of Louisville after Maryland bolted?
2. A BK led 2010 squad would not have finished 4-8. They may not have won the BE, but they most certainly go to a bowl.
3. Who replaces BK following the 2010 season? Jones would have left CMU after 2009 regardless. With a NCG appearance in the most recent past and a 5 year bowl streak, we could have probably gotten someone pretty good.
4. With an invite into the ACC, we may have been able to have retained that new coach.
The Big East may have survived in this scenario. Hard for the basketball schools to turn away the exposure and income to the conference that a NCG appearance would have garnered.
 
12-06-2018 02:32 PM
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UCengr Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 10:32 AM)bearcatfan Wrote:  And if UC had been selected for the NCG, what would Kelly have done?

He still would have accepted the ND position but surely he would have coached the game.

I thought I remember hearing Kelly mentioned after the fact that if we made it to the NCG he would've coached them. Granted talk is cheap with impossible hypotheticals, but still I agree coaches' egos are too large to pass up that opportunity.
 
12-06-2018 05:57 PM
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UCengr Offline
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RE: December 5, 2009
(12-06-2018 06:56 AM)bctn8n Wrote:  Best sporting event I ever attended.

Seconded. Made toughing it through the winter weather and numb toes all completely worth it.
 
12-06-2018 05:59 PM
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