As of today, we are 8th, but KenPom's preseason bias is very obvious right now. How can an undefeated Houston team be ranked within 2 of UCF who has lost to FAU? How can Temple at 7-1, who beat Missouri, Georgia and St Joe's be ranked next to WSU who has lost 3 including LaTech and SMU who lost to Lipscomb?

1. 36 Cincinnati 7-1 loss to OSU, best win @UNLV and Mississippi @home
2. 41 Houston 6-0 beat BYU and Oregon, lost to nobody
3. 43 UCF 6-2 lost to FAU and Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 75 Temple 7-1 beat Missouri, Georgia and St Joe's, lost to VCU
5. 82 Wichita State 4-3 lost to LaTech, Davidson and Alabama, beat Baylor
6. 87 SMU 6-3 lost to Lipscomb, beat Lamar
7. 88 UCONN 6-2 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa and Arizona
8. 123 Memphis 3-4 beat (86) Yale, lost to Charleston (116)
9. 128 Tulsa 5-3 beat California Baptist, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 190 Tulane 2-5 lost to UT Martin
11. 228 USF 6-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
12. 256 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. Navy

Navy is not AAC.

(12-04-2018 09:58 AM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  Navy is not AAC.

duh

Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/8

As of today, we are still 8th, Big losers were WSU, down 26, and Tulane down 21. Cincinnati, Houston Temple and UCONN all look better than expected, UCF not so much. On the positive side, non-conference almost over, so it looks like we can get a few top 50-100 wins in conference if we can win, and we should go (at worst) 3-1 before conference play starts. On the negative side, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston Temple and UCONN all look better than us right now which puts us in the 5-7 spot in the AAC.

1. 29 Cincinnati 9-1 loss to OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi and Xavier
2. 36 Houston 8-0 beat BYU,Oregon and OK ST, lost to nobody
3. 44 UCF 7-2 lost to FAU and Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 Temple 7-2 beat Missouri, Georgia and St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 79 UCONN 7-3 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU and Arizona
6. 105 SMU 6-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Lamar
7. 108 Wichita State 4-4 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson and Alabama, beat Baylor
8. 118 Memphis 3-4 beat (86) Yale, lost to Charleston (116)
9. 122 Tulsa 7-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 211 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
11. 217 USF 6-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
12. 255 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. Navy

Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/16

As of today, we are still 8th, but finally have a chance to move up if we win the next four. But then we have to go to Houston, which will be a huge game for us. Cincinnati's got a big game at home against UCLA Wednesday. Right now, we could still end up as high as 4th or as low as 9th. Let's hope these early season tests will help us win a few on the road in conference play.

1. 33 down from 29 Cincinnati 9-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi and Xavier
2. #24 37 down from 36 Houston 10-0 beat BYU,Oregon and OK ST, lost to nobody
3. 44, was 44 UCF 9-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 83 down from 73 Temple 9-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 88 down from 79 UCONN 8-3 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU and Arizona
6. 92 up from 105 SMU 7-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
7. 116 down from 108 Wichita State 6-4 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson and Alabama, beat Baylor
8. 117 up from 118 Memphis 5-5 beat (102) Yale, lost to Charleston (110)
9. 124 down from 122 Tulsa 9-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 206 up from 217 USF 7-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 214 down from 211 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 257 down from 255 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 312 Navy

Rankings don’t mean squat this time of year. I never look at them. Rankings was the reason most thought It would take a miracle to beat UT.

Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/23

As of today, finally some movement. SMU moves past UCONN and Memphis jumps WSU thanks to Yale and Charleston moving back into the top 100. USF also replaces Tulane at #10. Since conference starts next week, the ability for us to move up or down is solely dependent on our conference play. Looks like the only way to get into NCAAs is to win the tournament or go absolutely crazy in conference.

1. 26 up from 33 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier
2. #21 35 up from 37 Houston 12-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody, we're on our way!
3. 40 up from 44 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 up from 83 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 84 up from 92 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
6. 88, was 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
7. 110 up from 117 Memphis 7-5 beat (97) Yale, lost to Charleston (95)
8. 118 down from 116 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 121 up from 124 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 170 up from 206 USF 9-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 265 down from 214 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 268 down from 257 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 322 Navy

I cant wait till the WSU game. I hope we beat their brains in!

Merry christmas

(12-25-2018 10:11 AM)cmt Wrote:  Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/23

As of today, finally some movement. SMU moves past UCONN and Memphis jumps WSU thanks to Yale and Charleston moving back into the top 100. USF also replaces Tulane at #10. Since conference starts next week, the ability for us to move up or down is solely dependent on our conference play. Looks like the only way to get into NCAAs is to win the tournament or go absolutely crazy in conference.

1. 26 up from 33 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier
2. #21 35 up from 37 Houston 12-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody, we're on our way!
3. 40 up from 44 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 up from 83 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 84 up from 92 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
6. 88, was 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
7. 110 up from 117 Memphis 7-5 beat (97) Yale, lost to Charleston (95)
8. 118 down from 116 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 121 up from 124 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 170 up from 206 USF 9-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 265 down from 214 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 268 down from 257 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 322 Navy

That's KenPom. Sagarin is pretty similar with the exception of us and SMU (flip-flopped).
Hard to imagine what KenPom sees in SMU. When you stack our results beside theirs, it makes no sense that they are 30 spots ahead of us.

(12-25-2018 11:40 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 10:11 AM)cmt Wrote:  Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/23

As of today, finally some movement. SMU moves past UCONN and Memphis jumps WSU thanks to Yale and Charleston moving back into the top 100. USF also replaces Tulane at #10. Since conference starts next week, the ability for us to move up or down is solely dependent on our conference play. Looks like the only way to get into NCAAs is to win the tournament or go absolutely crazy in conference.

1. 26 up from 33 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier
2. #21 35 up from 37 Houston 12-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody, we're on our way!
3. 40 up from 44 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 up from 83 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 84 up from 92 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
6. 88, was 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
7. 110 up from 117 Memphis 7-5 beat (97) Yale, lost to Charleston (95)
8. 118 down from 116 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 121 up from 124 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 170 up from 206 USF 9-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 265 down from 214 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 268 down from 257 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 322 Navy

That's KenPom. Sagarin is pretty similar with the exception of us and SMU (flip-flopped).
Hard to imagine what KenPom sees in SMU. When you stack our results beside theirs, it makes no sense that they are 30 spots ahead of us.

I've always had a problem with all of these. The preseason seedings are the problem. All teams should be even at the start and as weird as the first 3 weeks would look, I would rather see it start out fair, instead of automatically putting Duke and Kansas at the top and Icarnate Word at the bottom. But really, the only teams it hurts in the end are the teams from 40-120, since at large bids are so often biased towards P5, which all the preseason rankings give P5 the top half of the rankings.

And, this is basketball, not football, so the question is why is 7-4 Florida at 27 while 7-3 Lehigh is 144? Because...everybody knows Florida is good and Lehigh is not? Because Florida beat West Virginia? Well, West Virginia lost to Buffalo, Western Kentucky, Florida and Rhode Island. Lehigh lost at Miami, K State and Yale, so how can you say that?

(12-25-2018 12:24 PM)cmt Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 11:40 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 10:11 AM)cmt Wrote:  Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/23

As of today, finally some movement. SMU moves past UCONN and Memphis jumps WSU thanks to Yale and Charleston moving back into the top 100. USF also replaces Tulane at #10. Since conference starts next week, the ability for us to move up or down is solely dependent on our conference play. Looks like the only way to get into NCAAs is to win the tournament or go absolutely crazy in conference.

1. 26 up from 33 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier
2. #21 35 up from 37 Houston 12-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody, we're on our way!
3. 40 up from 44 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 up from 83 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 84 up from 92 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
6. 88, was 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
7. 110 up from 117 Memphis 7-5 beat (97) Yale, lost to Charleston (95)
8. 118 down from 116 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 121 up from 124 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 170 up from 206 USF 9-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 265 down from 214 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 268 down from 257 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 322 Navy

That's KenPom. Sagarin is pretty similar with the exception of us and SMU (flip-flopped).
Hard to imagine what KenPom sees in SMU. When you stack our results beside theirs, it makes no sense that they are 30 spots ahead of us.

I've always had a problem with all of these. The preseason seedings are the problem. All teams should be even at the start and as weird as the first 3 weeks would look, I would rather see it start out fair, instead of automatically putting Duke and Kansas at the top and Icarnate Word at the bottom. But really, the only teams it hurts in the end are the teams from 40-120, since at large bids are so often biased towards P5, which all the preseason rankings give P5 the top half of the rankings.

And, this is basketball, not football, so the question is why is 7-4 Florida at 27 while 7-3 Lehigh is 144? Because...everybody knows Florida is good and Lehigh is not? Because Florida beat West Virginia? Well, West Virginia lost to Buffalo, Western Kentucky, Florida and Rhode Island. Lehigh lost at Miami, K State and Yale, so how can you say that?

At the end of the season the preseason bias is gone in kenpom, just an fyi

(12-25-2018 10:49 AM)Tigergary Wrote:  I cant wait till the WSU game. I hope we beat their brains in!

Merry christmas

(12-25-2018 01:01 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 12:24 PM)cmt Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 11:40 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 10:11 AM)cmt Wrote:  Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/23

As of today, finally some movement. SMU moves past UCONN and Memphis jumps WSU thanks to Yale and Charleston moving back into the top 100. USF also replaces Tulane at #10. Since conference starts next week, the ability for us to move up or down is solely dependent on our conference play. Looks like the only way to get into NCAAs is to win the tournament or go absolutely crazy in conference.

1. 26 up from 33 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier
2. #21 35 up from 37 Houston 12-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody, we're on our way!
3. 40 up from 44 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 up from 83 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 84 up from 92 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
6. 88, was 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
7. 110 up from 117 Memphis 7-5 beat (97) Yale, lost to Charleston (95)
8. 118 down from 116 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 121 up from 124 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 170 up from 206 USF 9-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 265 down from 214 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 268 down from 257 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 322 Navy

That's KenPom. Sagarin is pretty similar with the exception of us and SMU (flip-flopped).
Hard to imagine what KenPom sees in SMU. When you stack our results beside theirs, it makes no sense that they are 30 spots ahead of us.

I've always had a problem with all of these. The preseason seedings are the problem. All teams should be even at the start and as weird as the first 3 weeks would look, I would rather see it start out fair, instead of automatically putting Duke and Kansas at the top and Icarnate Word at the bottom. But really, the only teams it hurts in the end are the teams from 40-120, since at large bids are so often biased towards P5, which all the preseason rankings give P5 the top half of the rankings.

And, this is basketball, not football, so the question is why is 7-4 Florida at 27 while 7-3 Lehigh is 144? Because...everybody knows Florida is good and Lehigh is not? Because Florida beat West Virginia? Well, West Virginia lost to Buffalo, Western Kentucky, Florida and Rhode Island. Lehigh lost at Miami, K State and Yale, so how can you say that?

At the end of the season the preseason bias is gone in kenpom, just an fyi

Yeah, the same is supposedly true for Sagarin. Until there is complete transparency on the algorithms, though, I will remain skeptical - especially with KenPom's "Luck" factor (plug).

(12-25-2018 10:11 AM)cmt Wrote:  Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/23

As of today, finally some movement. SMU moves past UCONN and Memphis jumps WSU thanks to Yale and Charleston moving back into the top 100. USF also replaces Tulane at #10. Since conference starts next week, the ability for us to move up or down is solely dependent on our conference play. Looks like the only way to get into NCAAs is to win the tournament or go absolutely crazy in conference.

1. 26 up from 33 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier
2. #21 35 up from 37 Houston 12-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody, we're on our way!
3. 40 up from 44 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 73 up from 83 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 84 up from 92 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
6. 88, was 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
7. 110 up from 117 Memphis 7-5 beat (97) Yale, lost to Charleston (95)
8. 118 down from 116 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 121 up from 124 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 170 up from 206 USF 9-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 265 down from 214 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin
12. 268 down from 257 ECU 6-4 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
13. 322 Navy

Just noticed #10 USF on your update. Lost 2 games - including one to Citadel - beat FAMU and made a huge upward jump of 36 spots. Weird.

Our AAC this week as of midnight 12/30

Several teams didn't play. #22 Houston continues to get very little credit for being undefeated, I guess we'll find out Sunday. We continue to climb, and if we beat WSU this week we'll break into the top 100! Beat Houston at Houston, well, it'll be good. It will be a hard climb with lots of road wins to get from here to where we want to be.

Remember, we finished 2018 at #161, 2017 at #101, 2016 at #75, 2015 at #87

1. 27 down from 26 Cincinnati 11-2 lost Mississippi State & OSU, beat UNLV, Mississippi, UCLA and Xavier, no games since last week
2. #22 32 up from 35 Houston 13-0 beat BYU, Oregon, LSU and OK ST, lost to nobody. We're there Sunday!
3. 38 up from 43 UCF 10-2 lost to FAU & Missouri, beat Alabama, ST Joe's
4. 74 down from 73 Temple 10-2 beat Missouri, Georgia & St Joe's, lost to VCU, Villanova
5. 87 up from 88 UCONN 9-4 beat Syracuse, lost to Iowa, FSU, Nova and Arizona
6. 89 down from 84 SMU 8-4 lost to TCU, Lipscomb, beat Georgetown
7. 103 up from 110 Memphis 8-5 beat (96) Yale, lost to Charleston (92)
8. 117 down from 118 Wichita State 7-5 lost to Oklahoma, LaTech, Davidson, VCU and Alabama, beat Baylor
9. 125 down from 121 Tulsa 10-3 beat OK ST and Kansas ST, lost to SIU, Nevada and Utah
10. 174 down from 170 USF 10-2 lost to Georgetown and the Citadel, beat FAMU
11. 252 up from 268 ECU 7-5 includes loss to High Point, best win UT Rio Grande Valley?
12. 269 down from 265 Tulane 3-6 lost to UT Martin

13. 316 Navy

Why not use the rankings the NCAA selection committee will be using? Updated daily

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball...t-rankings

(12-31-2018 11:19 AM)Shooters Wrote:  Why not use the rankings the NCAA selection committee will be using? Updated daily

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball...t-rankings

good idea

Added conference standings and Net Rankings. Net rankings and Kenpom are way off in some places, it will be interesting to see where they are in a few weeks, but, of course, both Kenpom and/or Net can fudge where they need to fudge to make things look the way they want them too.

WSU's loss in OT at home as well as our shellacking down in Texas didn't help our forecast at all. We really need to find a way into the Top 4 to have a chance at winning the tournament.

Conference...Kenpom...Net...Record
1. #19 (2-0) Houston 31 up from 32, 4, 15-0
2. (2-0) UCF 35 up from 38, 38, 12-2
3. (2-0) SMU 84 up from 89, 131, 10-4
4. (1-1) Cincinnati 30 down from 27, 25, 12-3
5. (1-1) USF 155 up from 174, 91, 11-3
6. (1-1) Temple 71 up from 74, 65, 11-3
7. (1-1) Tulsa 129 down from 125, 80, 11-4
8. (1-1) Memphis, 93 up from 103, 77, 9-6
9. (1-1) ECU 233 up from 252, 259, 8-6
10. UCONN 108 down from 87, 101, 9-6
11. (0-2) Wichita State 123 down from 117, 135, 7-7
12. (0-2) Tulane 278 down from 269, 296, 4-10
13. (0-0) Navy 302, 262

(01-07-2019 10:19 AM)cmt Wrote:  Added conference standings and Net Rankings. Net rankings and Kenpom are way off in some places, it will be interesting to see where they are in a few weeks, but, of course, both Kenpom and/or Net can fudge where they need to fudge to make things look the way they want them too.

WSU's loss in OT at home as well as our shellacking down in Texas didn't help our forecast at all. We really need to find a way into the Top 4 to have a chance at winning the tournament.

Conference...Kenpom...Net...Record
1. #19 (2-0) Houston 31 up from 32, 4, 15-0
2. (2-0) UCF 35 up from 38, 38, 12-2
3. (2-0) SMU 84 up from 89, 131, 10-4
4. (1-1) Cincinnati 30 down from 27, 25, 12-3
5. (1-1) USF 155 up from 174, 91, 11-3
6. (1-1) Temple 71 up from 74, 65, 11-3
7. (1-1) Tulsa 129 down from 125, 80, 11-4
8. (1-1) Memphis, 93 up from 103, 77, 9-6
9. (1-1) ECU 233 up from 252, 259, 8-6
10. UCONN 108 down from 87, 101, 9-6
11. (0-2) Wichita State 123 down from 117, 135, 7-7
12. (0-2) Tulane 278 down from 269, 296, 4-10
13. (0-0) Navy 302, 262

I love tracking this post. Thanks for doing this.

I always love how subjective these "objective" rankings can be.

Also interesting that we moved up by getting pretty well handled by a high ranked school. Shows how important it is to play good teams.

KenPom still having a hard time getting a bead on us. Sagarin and NET have us much higher.