(12-12-2018 09:15 PM)JRsec Wrote: (12-12-2018 08:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: The way I look at the Alston case, I think the CFP will inevitably expand in the wake of a loss by the NCAA.
Conferences and officials will start looking for new revenue streams in an even more aggressive manner than they have to date. New bills will inspire some people to seek out new money. I think this will also impact current NCAA tournament structures. Whether it's March Madness or the baseball and softball world series, the money making sporting events will be under greater control of conferences with money.
I don't think these events are completely disconnected.
ATU the SEC earned on TV revenue alone 17 million for the SEC championship game and that is not including ticket sales, concessions cuts, and signage and advertising. We get 6 damn million for two CFP games combined if we win the first or not. Now I'm pretty good at business, but it's gong to take a helluva lot more before we give up our CCG to expand the damned playoffs. Now do you think those playoffs would be worth a nickel if the SEC said we'll pass? Expanding the conference championship with semis would pay us even more than voting to drop our CCG and expand to 8. And while the BTen doesn't earn as much as the SEC for the CCG they earn a lot more than 6 million. So we won't be alone.
What's more is that the number of schools going all in will be fewer than 65 probably by a dozen or so. Redefining conferences will be the first step and whittling it down to 4 would be a cinch. Personally speaking if Alston changes things I think it will cement the current CFP format as we likely will be in four redrawn conferences where champions will be crowned and get the auto bid. The conferences will make more when all four institute a semi final round for their championships.
And it's coming which is why Vandy hired a semi pro A.D.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...g-players/
I understand your point, but I don't see why the SEC would have to give up its title game.
If the NCAA loses the case then players are going to get paid fairly well and I don't think the administrators will mind adding a game to the schedule in that scenario. The title games are profitable and even in the current system, there's been no guarantee that losing the game(or not being in the game for that matter) would disqualify you from national championship contention. I think people will still love watching/attending the conference title games because it's a bragging right to win that hardware. I don't see it as a play-in game in the sense that it would lose value if both participants had a legitimate shot at being in the CFP.
Also, if we end up with a paring down of schools then that probably means 12 games against Power competition. The TV money will be better, but it will also mean one or two fewer homes games. Adding an extra home game for teams that get into the CFP(the 1st round) would be a huge reward for those local economies.
For me, the central question is access for major programs. If leagues start consolidating then entrance into the CFP will be that much more difficult if it's functionally a champs-only format. I don't contend that such a system would be efficient or sufficiently profitable. What I contend is that programs in tougher leagues will want a 2nd chance. Especially with the SEC, there's a chance we would have 2-3 entrants in an 8 team CFP every single season. I think that's especially true if we pare down to 48 schools or less accompanied by larger leagues.
The major programs will want some safeguards for giving up an easier schedule in lesser leagues. Sure, they'll get paid plenty for moving to a league like the SEC or B1G, but if you're going to be guaranteed a playoff spot simply by winning one of 4 leagues then that reduces the positives in moving to certain conferences.
From the SEC's perspective, why wouldn't they want a system that increases the odds one of their schools wins it all? That's incredible branding. From the perspective of the other leagues, they still get access and a reasonable shot to play their best game.
More teams/games = more money, the guarantee of more big name programs = more money from better ratings, the paring down of schools means everyone gets a bigger slice of the pie = more money
The powers that be tend to sell out for money with regard to almost every decision. With every passing year, they try to squeeze more money out of their fans and this will be the easiest way to do it in one fell swoop. Just seems like the natural progression of things so I'd bet on an expansion at some point. I just think a loss in the Alston case would make it more likely to happen a little quicker.
My earlier point was that new bills would equal new desire to generate revenue. What I'm really getting at is that programs will look for ways to maintain the same profit margins now that they'll be required to have new costs.