(11-29-2018 10:06 PM)NothingButKnight Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 08:59 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I'd normally root for the West Champ, but since UCF can get in a big bowl again I must root for them. For the good of the conference. Go UCF!

Fun fact: Tulsa has won 6 of it's last 7 against UCF.

That 2012 championship game still gives me nightmares. Just pick up the ball.....

You guys were definitely the better team overall, but we had our chance to pull the upset and failed. 2012 was a good team, but we weren't ready to win the close games. That came a year later, when our 2013 team went 7-1 in one-possession games.

Haha Yeah, Trey Watts who made that play was a baller for us.

That '13 team was legit, too. Unfortunately we fell off the map that year.

(11-29-2018 11:48 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:56 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:36 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:28 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  I would root against my own team in some bizarre circumstance like this, except it's UCF. Not that I view UCF as some rival (I really do, but it's not relevant to this point), but that they have had so much success, they are starting to look like Boise. And if it's one thing this conference doesn't need, it's a Boise with a real TV market in the Eastern Time Zone. In short, I fear that if they win all the conference championships all the time, it's just a matter of time until it looks more attractive to pick them off from the conference and into a P5 instead of raising the whole conference to power status.

The new TV contract should be in place long before any P5 conference picks off UCF, or anyone else for that matter. That contract will determine much of what happens in the future of this conference.

That said, P5 conference don't want to just add teams to subtract from other conferences. The B12, with Texas and Oklahoma in particular, don't want to add pieces that will make their pie smaller. That's why they are happy to stay at 10 to keep their pie slices bigger. Unless the P5 conference feel that UCF or others can make their pie pieces bigger, it's not likely that they will add just to crush the AAC. That would be like the proverbial cutting off your nose to spite your face.

That's not how it works. How it works is:

ESPN executive: "this UCF team is gonna give us grief every CFP ranking season, it's getting harder and harder to defend our monopoly on D-1a, and they are driving up the value of the AAC. Get Swofford on the phone for me...."
"Jim. Yeah, whatever... Listen, we need you guys to pick up UCF and another team of your choice between Cincy or USF. Yes, we will add a per-team bump so you won't loose any money. No, no, we will be better off this way. No, we are in negotiations with them right now. Yeah... Yeah... Hehehe, yeah, we just offered them $2.5MM per team.... YEAH, hahaha, you should have seen the look on Aresco's face! It was... Yes. Uncomfortable. Yep. Say hi to Margery and the kids for me. Huh? Oh, whatever. Later."

No, not really:

ESPN executive: "Boise and BYU would come cheaper the UCF and UC wouldn't they?"
ESPN yes man: "Yes they would"
ESPN: "Good we'll take them so we can keep our bigger piece of the pie".

Money is all that matter to ESPN execs.

But poaching Boise and BYU would do nothing to undercut the AAC - the real fly in their ointment. Neither BYU nor Boise have been knocking on the door of the playoff like UCF, nor are they in conferences that routinely finish closer to the P5 than the G4 Like the AAC. At this point, neither of those are driving the value of their conferences up (yes, I realize BYU is independent, but you get my point).

The math goes like this: AAC with 2 big boy schools might be worth $12MM per school, because the presence of those 2 big boy football programs drives viewer interest, ie. eyeballs. That's a total $144MM per year. Take those 2 out, and even though there are still middle-of-the-road to good teams left, nobody will care. It would be like taking Texas and Oklahoma out of the BigXII. What is REALLY left of any interest? So, Now you are able to tell the AAC to sit down and shut up, and here's $2MM per team to go away. Even with 2 teams to backfill, that's $24MM for the whole conference per year. That's a savings of around $120MM, far more than the extra $23MM x2 teams they will have to pay extra to the ACC ($46MM).
$120MM
-$46MM
$74MM profit per year.

I may have any or all of the figures slightly wrong, but the theory is still sound.

(11-30-2018 01:30 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 11:48 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  [quote='geosnooker2000' pid='15716930' dateline='1543550207']
[quote='sfink16' pid='15716894' dateline='1543548997']
[quote='geosnooker2000' pid='15716874' dateline='1543548483']

But poaching Boise and BYU would do nothing to undercut the AAC - the real fly in their ointment. Neither BYU nor Boise have been knocking on the door of the playoff like UCF, nor are they in conferences that routinely finish closer to the P5 than the G4 Like the AAC. At this point, neither of those are driving the value of their conferences up (yes, I realize BYU is independent, but you get my point).

The math goes like this: AAC with 2 big boy schools might be worth $12MM per school, because the presence of those 2 big boy football programs drives viewer interest, ie. eyeballs. That's a total $144MM per year. Take those 2 out, and even though there are still middle-of-the-road to good teams left, nobody will care. It would be like taking Texas and Oklahoma out of the BigXII. What is REALLY left of any interest? So, Now you are able to tell the AAC to sit down and shut up, and here's $2MM per team to go away. Even with 2 teams to backfill, that's $24MM for the whole conference per year. That's a savings of around $120MM, far more than the extra $23MM x2 teams they will have to pay extra to the ACC ($46MM).
$120MM
-$46MM
$74MM profit per year.

I may have any or all of the figures slightly wrong, but the theory is still sound.

Did you really say the American losing UCF and someone else is the same as the B12 losing TX and OK? That is truly delusional. This conference could lose any two teams and be fine. UCF has had a great two year run; TX football is a massive cultural fixture of life. Also the math: say the next B12 deal pays each team $25 million per year for 10 years. The two American tranfer teams would then be paid $500 million. Our entire conference could be bought for that money.

(11-29-2018 11:34 PM)bignow Wrote:  Well, the American collects $6.5 M if UCF wins ($4M for NY6, +$2M expenses) if Memphis wins we get Birmingham in the winter

Peanuts

(11-29-2018 06:51 PM)memphistiger89 Wrote:  

(11-28-2018 05:49 PM)willhclark Wrote:  Everyone but Memphis fans have to be rooting for the Knights!

Much respect to UCF!

MWC fans will be rooting for the Tigers.

All 11 of them.

(11-29-2018 11:34 PM)bignow Wrote:  Well, the American collects $6.5 M if UCF wins ($4M for NY6, +$2M expenses) if Memphis wins we get Birmingham in the winter

Where did the other .5 million go?

(11-30-2018 08:56 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 11:34 PM)bignow Wrote:  Well, the American collects $6.5 M if UCF wins ($4M for NY6, +$2M expenses) if Memphis wins we get Birmingham in the winter

Where did the other .5 million go?

I believe it’s just shy of $2.5M for NY6 expenses

(11-30-2018 08:56 AM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 11:34 PM)bignow Wrote:  Well, the American collects $6.5 M if UCF wins ($4M for NY6, +$2M expenses) if Memphis wins we get Birmingham in the winter

Where did the other .5 million go?

Officials aren't going to make this happen for free

Just kidding, AAC officials can barely handle officiating at all, tell them to also fix the results and they'll just lock-up

(11-30-2018 01:30 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 11:48 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:56 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:36 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:28 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  I would root against my own team in some bizarre circumstance like this, except it's UCF. Not that I view UCF as some rival (I really do, but it's not relevant to this point), but that they have had so much success, they are starting to look like Boise. And if it's one thing this conference doesn't need, it's a Boise with a real TV market in the Eastern Time Zone. In short, I fear that if they win all the conference championships all the time, it's just a matter of time until it looks more attractive to pick them off from the conference and into a P5 instead of raising the whole conference to power status.

The new TV contract should be in place long before any P5 conference picks off UCF, or anyone else for that matter. That contract will determine much of what happens in the future of this conference.

That said, P5 conference don't want to just add teams to subtract from other conferences. The B12, with Texas and Oklahoma in particular, don't want to add pieces that will make their pie smaller. That's why they are happy to stay at 10 to keep their pie slices bigger. Unless the P5 conference feel that UCF or others can make their pie pieces bigger, it's not likely that they will add just to crush the AAC. That would be like the proverbial cutting off your nose to spite your face.

That's not how it works. How it works is:

ESPN executive: "this UCF team is gonna give us grief every CFP ranking season, it's getting harder and harder to defend our monopoly on D-1a, and they are driving up the value of the AAC. Get Swofford on the phone for me...."
"Jim. Yeah, whatever... Listen, we need you guys to pick up UCF and another team of your choice between Cincy or USF. Yes, we will add a per-team bump so you won't loose any money. No, no, we will be better off this way. No, we are in negotiations with them right now. Yeah... Yeah... Hehehe, yeah, we just offered them $2.5MM per team.... YEAH, hahaha, you should have seen the look on Aresco's face! It was... Yes. Uncomfortable. Yep. Say hi to Margery and the kids for me. Huh? Oh, whatever. Later."

No, not really:

ESPN executive: "Boise and BYU would come cheaper the UCF and UC wouldn't they?"
ESPN yes man: "Yes they would"
ESPN: "Good we'll take them so we can keep our bigger piece of the pie".

Money is all that matter to ESPN execs.

But poaching Boise and BYU would do nothing to undercut the AAC - the real fly in their ointment. Neither BYU nor Boise have been knocking on the door of the playoff like UCF, nor are they in conferences that routinely finish closer to the P5 than the G4 Like the AAC. At this point, neither of those are driving the value of their conferences up (yes, I realize BYU is independent, but you get my point).

The math goes like this: AAC with 2 big boy schools might be worth $12MM per school, because the presence of those 2 big boy football programs drives viewer interest, ie. eyeballs. That's a total $144MM per year. Take those 2 out, and even though there are still middle-of-the-road to good teams left, nobody will care. It would be like taking Texas and Oklahoma out of the BigXII. What is REALLY left of any interest? So, Now you are able to tell the AAC to sit down and shut up, and here's $2MM per team to go away. Even with 2 teams to backfill, that's $24MM for the whole conference per year. That's a savings of around $120MM, far more than the extra $23MM x2 teams they will have to pay extra to the ACC ($46MM).
$120MM
-$46MM
$74MM profit per year.

I may have any or all of the figures slightly wrong, but the theory is still sound.

Contrary to some on this board's beliefs, ESPN does not have complete control of the P5 conferences. What incentive would the ACC have for adding those two teams, or any P5 conference for that matter?

My argument has two parties and how the money is distributed, ESPN AND each P5 conference. In the case of the ACC, that would make their basketball conference 17 teams, a scheduling nightmare. UCF (even though they are good this year) subtracts from the power of that conference most years and once they lose Taylor.

(11-30-2018 08:06 AM)memphistiger89 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 11:34 PM)bignow Wrote:  Well, the American collects $6.5 M if UCF wins ($4M for NY6, +$2M expenses) if Memphis wins we get Birmingham in the winter

Peanuts

Maybe to true P5 conferences ----- it shows how money starved the G5 conferences are.

(11-30-2018 08:06 AM)vick mike Wrote:  

(11-30-2018 01:30 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 11:48 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  [quote='geosnooker2000' pid='15716930' dateline='1543550207']
[quote='sfink16' pid='15716894' dateline='1543548997']
[quote='geosnooker2000' pid='15716874' dateline='1543548483']

But poaching Boise and BYU would do nothing to undercut the AAC - the real fly in their ointment. Neither BYU nor Boise have been knocking on the door of the playoff like UCF, nor are they in conferences that routinely finish closer to the P5 than the G4 Like the AAC. At this point, neither of those are driving the value of their conferences up (yes, I realize BYU is independent, but you get my point).

The math goes like this: AAC with 2 big boy schools might be worth $12MM per school, because the presence of those 2 big boy football programs drives viewer interest, ie. eyeballs. That's a total $144MM per year. Take those 2 out, and even though there are still middle-of-the-road to good teams left, nobody will care. It would be like taking Texas and Oklahoma out of the BigXII. What is REALLY left of any interest? So, Now you are able to tell the AAC to sit down and shut up, and here's $2MM per team to go away. Even with 2 teams to backfill, that's $24MM for the whole conference per year. That's a savings of around $120MM, far more than the extra $23MM x2 teams they will have to pay extra to the ACC ($46MM).
$120MM
-$46MM
$74MM profit per year.

I may have any or all of the figures slightly wrong, but the theory is still sound.

Did you really say the American losing UCF and someone else is the same as the B12 losing TX and OK? That is truly delusional. This conference could lose any two teams and be fine. UCF has had a great two year run; TX football is a massive cultural fixture of life. Also the math: say the next B12 deal pays each team $25 million per year for 10 years. The two American tranfer teams would then be paid $500 million. Our entire conference could be bought for that money.

No, I really didn't say it was "the same as". I said it would be "like", as in, "similar to, but not exactly."

And on the money, what does multiplying the numbers by 10 have to do with anything? But okay...
500/10 years/ 12 teams = $4MM per year. The TV numbers say the AAC is worth WAY more than that. "Like" twice that at a minimum.

(11-30-2018 10:39 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  No, I really didn't say it was "the same as". I said it would be "like", as in, "similar to, but not exactly."

And on the money, what does multiplying the numbers by 10 have to do with anything? But okay...
500/10 years/ 12 teams = $4MM per year. The TV numbers say the AAC is worth WAY more than that. "Like" twice that at a minimum.

That's like saying my wife, at 5'6" tall, is similar (but not exactly) in height to me, at 6'6" tall. When does "similar to, but not exactly" become the ridiculous?

(11-30-2018 10:50 AM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-30-2018 10:39 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  No, I really didn't say it was "the same as". I said it would be "like", as in, "similar to, but not exactly."

And on the money, what does multiplying the numbers by 10 have to do with anything? But okay...
500/10 years/ 12 teams = $4MM per year. The TV numbers say the AAC is worth WAY more than that. "Like" twice that at a minimum.

That's like saying my wife, at 5'6" tall, is similar (but not exactly) in height to me, at 6'6" tall. When does "similar to, but not exactly" become the ridiculous?

Look at it this way, I think Geo is saying 'would have a similar impact' on the conferences.

Thank you. Look, I realize that Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State would all still be there, but just as TCU was not all that and a bag of chips until they joined the BigXII, they would again be considered an "also ran". The conference would be considered a shell of its former self. They might, as individuals, be as good as or better than UCF this year and last.... and get about as much respect as UCF this year and last.

(11-29-2018 10:36 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:28 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  I would root against my own team in some bizarre circumstance like this, except it's UCF. Not that I view UCF as some rival (I really do, but it's not relevant to this point), but that they have had so much success, they are starting to look like Boise. And if it's one thing this conference doesn't need, it's a Boise with a real TV market in the Eastern Time Zone. In short, I fear that if they win all the conference championships all the time, it's just a matter of time until it looks more attractive to pick them off from the conference and into a P5 instead of raising the whole conference to power status.

The new TV contract should be in place long before any P5 conference picks off UCF, or anyone else for that matter. That contract will determine much of what happens in the future of this conference.

That said, P5 conference don't want to just add teams to subtract from other conferences. The B12, with Texas and Oklahoma in particular, don't want to add pieces that will make their pie smaller. That's why they are happy to stay at 10 to keep their pie slices bigger. Unless the P5 conference feel that UCF or others can make their pie pieces bigger, it's not likely that they will add just to crush the AAC. That would be like the proverbial cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Wrong.
Did you not see what ESPN did to CUSA in 2004 and the MWC in 2010?
They almost destroyed both conferences by raiding them of their best teams.

someone needs to convince Henderson to go to Knight Library tonight

(11-30-2018 12:13 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:36 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-29-2018 10:28 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  I would root against my own team in some bizarre circumstance like this, except it's UCF. Not that I view UCF as some rival (I really do, but it's not relevant to this point), but that they have had so much success, they are starting to look like Boise. And if it's one thing this conference doesn't need, it's a Boise with a real TV market in the Eastern Time Zone. In short, I fear that if they win all the conference championships all the time, it's just a matter of time until it looks more attractive to pick them off from the conference and into a P5 instead of raising the whole conference to power status.

The new TV contract should be in place long before any P5 conference picks off UCF, or anyone else for that matter. That contract will determine much of what happens in the future of this conference.

That said, P5 conference don't want to just add teams to subtract from other conferences. The B12, with Texas and Oklahoma in particular, don't want to add pieces that will make their pie smaller. That's why they are happy to stay at 10 to keep their pie slices bigger. Unless the P5 conference feel that UCF or others can make their pie pieces bigger, it's not likely that they will add just to crush the AAC. That would be like the proverbial cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Wrong.
Did you not see what ESPN did to CUSA in 2004 and the MWC in 2010?
They almost destroyed both conferences by raiding them of their best teams.

What????

As a historical clarification of your post, CUSA doesn't get raided by the Big East if the ACC doesn't raid the Big East and they kicked out Temple. You kind of left that out of the history lesson. The MWC lost Utah and BYU went independent and gained Boise. I hardly call that being raided.

Contrary to popular belief ESPN raids no one. They offer incentives to conferences, perhaps, but legally do not raid anyone. It's similar to all the states that were courting Amazon to build their expansion plants in their states. States with the best chances offered the most incentives to Amazon for their services.

The question is, what incentive can ESPN offer to any P5 conference to expand? More money? That's doubtful.

(11-30-2018 12:56 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-30-2018 12:13 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Did you not see what ESPN did to CUSA in 2004 and the MWC in 2010?
They almost destroyed both conferences by raiding them of their best teams.

What????

As a historical clarification of your post, CUSA doesn't get raided by the Big East if the ACC doesn't raid the Big East and they kicked out Temple. You kind of left that out of the history lesson. The MWC lost Utah and BYU went independent and gained Boise. I hardly call that being raided.

Contrary to popular belief ESPN raids no one. They offer incentives to conferences, perhaps, but legally do not raid anyone. It's similar to all the states that were courting Amazon to build their expansion plants in their states. States with the best chances offered the most incentives to Amazon for their services.

The question is, what incentive can ESPN offer to any P5 conference to expand? More money? That's doubtful.

Boise St. was Utah's replacement. Fresno and Nevada were taken to try to blow up BYU's affiliation with the WAC (which worked and pushed BYU to the WCC).

The Big East raided the weakened MWC by taking TCU and then Boise and SDSU. The Big East simultaneously raided the CUSA by inviting UCF, SMU, and Houston... and then Memphis 2 months later.

Those moves were made in response to the ACC's raid of the Big East, but they were also made to enhance the re-organizing Big East's media deal. Whether ESPN was *behind* it or not can be debated, but it was clearly a raid of both the MWC and CUSA.

In 2012, the weakened MWC and CUSA (both raided by the Big East...) announced their plan to MERGE. The MWC-CUSA merger was quashed when the NCAA indicated that a new conference would forfeit significant money and tournament bids, etc.

You can say the ESPN didn't orchestrate the MWC and CUSA raids, but you can at least say that the Big East raided the conferences with ESPN smiling in the background.

(11-30-2018 01:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-30-2018 12:56 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-30-2018 12:13 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Did you not see what ESPN did to CUSA in 2004 and the MWC in 2010?
They almost destroyed both conferences by raiding them of their best teams.

What????

As a historical clarification of your post, CUSA doesn't get raided by the Big East if the ACC doesn't raid the Big East and they kicked out Temple. You kind of left that out of the history lesson. The MWC lost Utah and BYU went independent and gained Boise. I hardly call that being raided.

Contrary to popular belief ESPN raids no one. They offer incentives to conferences, perhaps, but legally do not raid anyone. It's similar to all the states that were courting Amazon to build their expansion plants in their states. States with the best chances offered the most incentives to Amazon for their services.

The question is, what incentive can ESPN offer to any P5 conference to expand? More money? That's doubtful.

Boise St. was Utah's replacement. Fresno and Nevada were taken to try to blow up BYU's affiliation with the WAC (which worked and pushed BYU to the WCC).

The Big East raided the weakened MWC by taking TCU and then Boise and SDSU. The Big East simultaneously raided the CUSA by inviting UCF, SMU, and Houston... and then Memphis 2 months later.

Those moves were made in response to the ACC's raid of the Big East, but they were also made to enhance the re-organizing Big East's media deal. Whether ESPN was *behind* it or not can be debated, but it was clearly a raid of both the MWC and CUSA.

In 2012, the weakened MWC and CUSA (both raided by the Big East...) announced their plan to MERGE. The MWC-CUSA merger was quashed when the NCAA indicated that a new conference would forfeit significant money and tournament bids, etc.

You can say the ESPN didn't orchestrate the MWC and CUSA raids, but you can at least say that the Big East raided the conferences with ESPN smiling in the background.

The TCU, Boise, SDST /raid/realignment to the Big East never happened because they never played in the Big East. In golf, that would be called a Mulligan. So who again was raided in the MWC? As far as I can see, only Utah to the Pac 10/12 was the only actual raid. BYU left on it's on accord, and not to join a conference.

As for the CUSA, I agree. I just added that the Big East wouldn't have raided CUSA without being raid by the ACC first. They would just as gladly have kept Miami, VT, and BC.

I never understood what happened with the MWC/CUSA merger, so thanks for that clarification.

I go back to my question in the last post. What incentive can ESPN offer to any P5 conference to expand? More money? Doubtful.