WM and EMU, maybe UT

RPI UB 38
OU 65
NIU 69
MU 73
EMU 77
WM 87
UT 88

RPI Strength of Schedule

MU 67
UT 101
NIU 104
EMU 112
WM 155
OU 166
UB 207

Sagarin

OU 62
UT 73
UB 76
NIU 77
MU 88
EMU 89
WM 101

MAC Wins

UB 7
OU 6
MU 6
NIU 6
EMU 5
WM 5
UT 5
Miami nonleague did not play any FCS teams, which most of the other teams did. Nonleague was UC 10-2, Army 9-2, Marshall 8-3, and Minnesota 6-6. 3 of those games were on the road. Minnesota, it might be noted, at home beat Fresno, Miami, Wisconsin,and Purdue, and dominated Wisconsin and Purdue.

In reading most people's opinions on who should get left out, the only thing people seem to mention is total wins, which is in fact highly dependent on strength of schedule. I would say that Miami also finished strong and looks to be better now than at least Eastern, Western, and Toledo.

(11-27-2018 03:52 PM)DICK Wrote:  WM and EMU, maybe UT

RPI UB 38
OU 65
NIU 69
MU 73
EMU 77
WM 87
UT 88

RPI Strength of Schedule

MU 67
UT 101
NIU 104
EMU 112
WM 155
OU 166
UB 207

Sagarin

OU 62
UT 73
UB 76
NIU 77
MU 88
EMU 89
WM 101

MAC Wins

UB 7
OU 6
MU 6
NIU 6
EMU 5
WM 5
UT 5
Miami nonleague did not play any FCS teams, which most of the other teams did. Nonleague was UC 10-2, Army 9-2, Marshall 8-3, and Minnesota 6-6. 3 of those games were on the road. Minnesota, it might be noted, at home beat Fresno, Miami, Wisconsin,and Purdue, and dominated Wisconsin and Purdue.

In reading most people's opinions on who should get left out, the only thing people seem to mention is total wins, which is in fact highly dependent on strength of schedule. I would say that Miami also finished strong and looks to be better now than at least Eastern, Western, and Toledo.

A compelling argument for Miami’s inclusion, no doubt !!

WMU beat Miami @Miami -- and has a winning record where Miami doesn't -- 'nuff said on that.

(11-27-2018 06:48 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  WMU beat Miami @Miami -- and has a winning record where Miami doesn't -- 'nuff said on that.

And UT smoked WMU. And EMU beat UT. And WMU beat EMU...

The reality is that there's no clear cut ranking with about 6 teams in the MAC. Let's hope they all play in December.

(11-27-2018 07:21 PM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 06:48 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  WMU beat Miami @Miami -- and has a winning record where Miami doesn't -- 'nuff said on that.

And UT smoked WMU. And EMU beat UT. And WMU beat EMU...

The reality is that there's no clear cut ranking with about 6 teams in the MAC. Let's hope they all play in December.

LIPSTICK ON PIGS .... no 6-6 team is worth a bowl game. NONE!

Quote:And UT smoked WMU. And EMU beat UT. And WMU beat EMU...

UT's already in a bowl. They're not in the snubbed-competition equation.

So of the 3, maybe 4 snubs, 7-5 is a weight over 6-6 in equal conferences -- sorry. WMU and EMU would have weight above Miami having winning records.

Add to that, WMU beat both EMU & Miami. As far as WMU vs Miami is concerned, that's a no-brainer.

EMU or WMU, a somewhat close call, but WMU gets a nod by beating EMU all other things being equal. You'd have to make the case where EMU would BE a stronger sell to a place (not merely a case where one interpretation Could be).

(11-27-2018 06:35 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

Well you have me convinced!

(11-27-2018 03:52 PM)DICK Wrote:  Miami nonleague did not play any FCS teams, which most of the other teams did.

Then your AD needs to schedule 1 freebie like the other teams do. 'If you can't beat 'em, join 'em'.

EDIT: You didn't play any FCS, but you also didn't play two currently Top 20-ranked P5s like WMU.

Bowls aren't looking at who beat who during the regular season. And certainly not pouring over RPIs or close losses.

If WMU gets in, it's because of greater success in the past 5 years and a larger fan following/home attendance.

If EMU (or Miami) gets in, it's because a bowl might consider their long suffering fans "hungrier," a la the Cubs pre-World Series season.

I'd like to be confident that all MAC teams will be bowling, but they won't. One, or probably two, will be staying home. We still have Virginia Tech ready to be eligible.

That's really it, in a nutshell.

I think definitely WMU definitely benefited from playing the FCS school and Georgia St. But most schools do schedule FCS opponents for the very reason it counts to bowl eligibility and 7-5 looks better then 6-6, as you're seeing now. As for GSU, we had no idea going into the season they'd be that poor. Most thought they'd be 6-6 or 7-5 kind of team at the minimum.

Looking at MU's schedule, I don't see on paper any win that stands out. Both schools beat NIU. MU's win vs Ohio would be equivalent to WMU's win vs EMU.

Losses, okay, WMU's loss to BS was inexcusable. MU didn't really have any bad losses, but lost the head-to-head with WMU, so instead of MU being 7-5 and WMU being 6-6 and WMU in the talks of missing the bowl, WMU is 7-5 and talks of MU missing the bowl.

It's still possible, tho, both teams stay home.

Quote:Bowls aren't looking at who beat who during the regular season. And certainly not pouring over RPIs or close losses.

If it was EMU vs Purdue -- they'd pick Purdue, even though EMU beat Purdue and EMU has 7-5 record while Purdue is 6-6. On that level, I agree -- but that's mixing not just outer-conference, but P5 vs G5.

I think when it comes down to the last-two-men-standing at-larges within the Same Conference, I do believe it plays at least some role -- even if not official. Also, with WMU having a slightly bigger name in the big "at large" world, and potentially more fans to travel way out. Not to say it's the end-all-be-all, but the Fellow team beat IMO would probably have to show some cards to make up for that, to be chosen by default. I don't see where EMU would, really.

Oh, the Detroit Bowl! But wait, tho! That's not at-large. They'd be asking for the next MAC team as a tie-in because Ohio State would be making the Playoff, hence MAC would be filling in for B10 automatically. There -- I can't see a conference giving away the slightly lesser team over to the Conference tie-in bowl. The slightly lesser team defined by losing to the other One team they're being compared with, on who goes or who stays (when Otherwise equal in the standings).

In a conference tie-in bowl (Detroit), I guess I could -- but something outside the mundane would need to be sticking out, IMO. Insider preference by those running the bowl for EMU.... or WMU making the Detroit Bowl every 2-3 years all the time, and EMU never going. Or it not being WMU but Ball State (distance).

If EMU’s kicker wasn’t missing chipshot FG’s, they’re playing at Ford Field Friday. EMU was the best MAC team NIU played all year.

(11-27-2018 06:48 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  WMU beat Miami @Miami -- and has a winning record where Miami doesn't -- 'nuff said on that.

A 7-5 school has a winning record against actual FBS schools, even if on of the wins was over an FCS school.

But head to head is the decisive factor even if we say "both have 6 wins against actual FBS schools".

I don't know if 'body of work' counts in college FB, but EMU has a very good record.

1). Beat Purdue and lost to SDSU in OT. Both on the road. Both have been ranked in the top 25 or near top 25.

2). One could say, convincingly, is that EMU played 11 good games (Army was the only dud.) Not sure half of the B1G can say that.

3). EMU, as noted above, was a FG or two from an 8 or 9 win season. Easy to say that EMU might be better than a typical 7 - 5 MAC team.

I still think we are going to the Camelia Bowl. Don't know which of the others will not be in a MAC primary bowl.

(11-28-2018 02:29 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  If EMU’s kicker wasn’t missing chipshot FG’s, they’re playing at Ford Field Friday. EMU was the best MAC team NIU played all year.

Same if WMU makes the 2-point conversion in OT at Ball State.

(11-28-2018 02:29 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  If EMU’s kicker wasn’t missing chipshot FG’s, they’re playing at Ford Field Friday. EMU was the best MAC team NIU played all year.

What about the two teams that actually beat you?

(11-28-2018 08:19 AM)Bronc33 Wrote:  

(11-28-2018 02:29 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  If EMU’s kicker wasn’t missing chipshot FG’s, they’re playing at Ford Field Friday. EMU was the best MAC team NIU played all year.

What about the two teams that actually beat you?

I was actually most impressed with EMU - who had the game won but missed a walkoff chipshot FG - against one of NIU’s most intense efforts of the season.

NIU played with incredible intensity against EMU to steal one in Rynearson, not so much energy the final 2 weeks.

Walked away knowing EMU’s win over Purdue was no fluke.

if any team is deserving (of a snub), it's miami!

The interesting story is that the EMU regular kicker is out. Medical.

Chad Ryland is a walk-on and was perfect early and then hit the skids.

When #2 isn't hitting and #1 is on the PUP list (PUP - physically unable to perform), then it is tough city.