JMU 34
Colgate 0

(11-25-2018 02:14 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  Another note: expect JMU to try to setup a few big returns on special teams. That is one area Georgetown has had success vs Colgate.

I haven't watch the game but looking at the box score, this doesn't stand out. It looks like Colgate punted three times, but there were no returns. Punt average was 33.3 with a long of 45, so there must have been a shank or two in there. Shanks are great for field position but I feel like Amos has the same offensive efficiency rate as our offense does.

Georgetown had an average return of 19 with a long of 27. Seems fairly standard but these numbers can fluctuation so much because of all the different kickoff strategy these days.

Amos glides when he runs, almost like Cam Newton, doesn't look like he's going fast but is extremely slippery and is very tough to bring down.

I think he has a big day on Saturday and puts points on the board. I think our D will also have a score. Offense just needs to not turn it over and score points on half the possessions in the RZ and we'll win by double digits.

JMU wins this one 17-6. The game is 10-6 late and our defense scores a TD to seal the deal.

(11-26-2018 09:01 AM)jmu007 Wrote:  QB hasn’t played in last 2 games. Haven’t found any word if he’s playing a JMU yet.

I was just coming over to report this. Apparently their starting QB is questionable.

(11-26-2018 09:58 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 02:14 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  Another note: expect JMU to try to setup a few big returns on special teams. That is one area Georgetown has had success vs Colgate.

I haven't watch the game but looking at the box score, this doesn't stand out. It looks like Colgate punted three times, but there were no returns. Punt average was 33.3 with a long of 45, so there must have been a shank or two in there. Shanks are great for field position but I feel like Amos has the same offensive efficiency rate as our offense does.

Georgetown had an average return of 19 with a long of 27. Seems fairly standard but these numbers can fluctuation so much because of all the different kickoff strategy these days.

They had a lot of flags call good returns back if I remember correctly. The open lanes were definitely there and would’ve been exploited by JMU.

(11-26-2018 08:55 AM)JMUDukes1750 Wrote:  Watched some of their games, #21 (Holl) and #34 (Wisnieski) stand out on their D. Both read and react quickly, are great side to side, and in pursuit. I would think that outside zone plays, and bubble screens will be ineffective against them.

Our TE and WR blocking will need to be on point with them roaming the defense.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using CSNbbs mobile app

This guy for sure. They have a great DE too who was hobbled at Army. Not sure his status.

(11-26-2018 11:40 AM)jmu007 Wrote:  

(11-26-2018 09:58 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 02:14 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  Another note: expect JMU to try to setup a few big returns on special teams. That is one area Georgetown has had success vs Colgate.

I haven't watch the game but looking at the box score, this doesn't stand out. It looks like Colgate punted three times, but there were no returns. Punt average was 33.3 with a long of 45, so there must have been a shank or two in there. Shanks are great for field position but I feel like Amos has the same offensive efficiency rate as our offense does.

Georgetown had an average return of 19 with a long of 27. Seems fairly standard but these numbers can fluctuation so much because of all the different kickoff strategy these days.

They had a lot of flags call good returns back if I remember correctly. The open lanes were definitely there and would’ve been exploited by JMU.

Makes sense, thanks for the additional info.

I had some free time at lunch and looked at both teams' results against FCS schools - and then compared it to their opponents' season stats.

Their opponents average 16.59 points per game and they gave up 3.22 points per game. Our opponents average 23.86 points per game and we gave up 13 points per game.

Their opponents average giving up 27.43 points per game and they've scored 31.89 points per game. Our opponents average giving up 26.88 points per game and we average 37.09 points per game.

Those stats include our Norfolk State game.

The best scoring offense they've faced is Holy Cross - number 87, tied with Elon. We are ranked 15th in scoring offense. They will obviously be the best scoring defense we've faced, but we've gone up against some good ones - Stony Brook (13) and Delaware (22).

Just looking at this - admittedly limited - comparison, I like our chances.

JMU 27 (3 TDs, 2 FGs) - Colgate 3

First, I'm predicting we drop less than 2 easy catches. Second, when you have two defensive squads, punt teams matter. I got some "great" intel that Colgate special teams suck ("great" is dependent on your opinion of jmu007).

So...my prediction is based on the following thought process...

When we don't drop passes, we score. When we have to punt, we flip field position cause we have O'Kelly. When they get the ball, they don't score*. When they don't score, they punt**. When they punt we start at close to midfield***. When we start at midfield, we score.

*Colgate's offense doesn't even compare to our offense. They scored 10 against UNH and their lone TD was a 19 yard drive that required 2 fourth down conversions. Colgate scored two TDs against W&M but one was a 6 play 21 yard drive. So basically they had 1 TD drive longer than 21 yards against our two common opponents, we had 6 longer than 21 yards against those two teams. Also, Colgate's 3rd down conversion, an important metric in defensive showdowns, is 37% for the season. Taking out crappy league play, their conversions against Army was 25%, against W&M 42%, and against UNH 13% (2 of 15) for an average of 27%. JMU's season average is 46%.

** Their punter, based on Army stats, isn't good. 3 punts against Army for 80 total yards (26.6) average with none inside the 20. But his long was a 39 yard punt, so he had 2 punts for a total of 41 yards. That is awful. It seems like a small outlier as he has averaged ~34.6 yards during the season. O'Kelly averages ~38.8 yards but has significantly more punts (23 vs 9) down inside the 20. Seems like Colgate's punter has one returnable punt a game and the rest are shanks.

***Due to their crappy punter, Amos might only get a chance to return 25% of Colgate's punts. So we either get good field position cause they shanked it or Amos will have good returns.

(11-26-2018 01:17 PM)JMUDukeDawg Wrote:  I had some free time at lunch and looked at both teams' results against FCS schools - and then compared it to their opponents' season stats.

Their opponents average 16.59 points per game and they gave up 3.22 points per game. Our opponents average 23.86 points per game and we gave up 13 points per game.

Their opponents average giving up 27.43 points per game and they've scored 31.89 points per game. Our opponents average giving up 26.88 points per game and we average 37.09 points per game.

Those stats include our Norfolk State game.

The best scoring offense they've faced is Holy Cross - number 87, tied with Elon. We are ranked 15th in scoring offense. They will obviously be the best scoring defense we've faced, but we've gone up against some good ones - Stony Brook (13) and Delaware (22).

Just looking at this - admittedly limited - comparison, I like our chances.

Looking at common opponents and just scores (not taking the time to look into offensive vs defensive TDs).

UNH averaged 8.6 points without Trevor and scored 3 against Colgate (first 4 games excluding Colorado so 3 games in consideration). UNH averaged 28.5 points over their last 4 games and scored 35 against us. Obviously, UNH had two defensive TDs so if you take just those two out, they averaged 25 points over the last 4 games and scored 21 against us. So basically, both JMU and Colgate held UNH under their adjusted averages (for defensive TDs and Trevor) by a similar point margin. PUSH

UNH gave up 21 points per game excluding Colorado. We scored 24 (with 6 turnovers?), Colgate only scored 10 (with a 19 yard TD which required 2 fourth down conversions). HUGE ADVANTAGE JMU

W&M scored 0 against both of us. PUSH

W&M gave up 51 to JMU (37 removing 2 defensive TDs) and 23 to Colgate. ADVANTAGE JMU

They won’t kick to Amos nullifying an important weapon of ours. Hopefully this will mean some short kicks as their punter will be aiming at the sidelines each kick.

I feel like my future as a scout may have just put on the line. Lol

(11-24-2018 07:12 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Colgate (9-1/6-0) schedule:
9/1 W Holy Cross (5-6) 24-17
9/8 W @ UNH (4-7) 10-3
9/15 Cancelled @ Furman
9/22 W Lafayette (3-8) 45-0
9/29 W @ W&M (4-6) 23-0
10/6 W @ Bucknell (1-10) 27-3
10/13 W Cornell (3-7) 31-0
10/27 W Georgetown (5-6) 38-0
11/3 W @ Fordham (2-9) 41-0
11/10 W @ Lehigh (3-8) 48-6
11/17 L @ #23 Army (9-2) 28-14
https://gocolgateraiders.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=340

Stats:
https://gocolgateraiders.com/cumestats.a...h=football

The 9 FCS schools that they beat had an average of 3.33 wins for the season.

(11-26-2018 02:38 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  They won’t kick to Amos nullifying an important weapon of ours. Hopefully this will mean some short kicks as their punter will be aiming at the sidelines each kick.

He can shank it all game long if he wants. If we keep starting at the 50 each drive, we're going to get a series of FGs at minimum and with a low scoring affair, FGs matter.

(11-26-2018 03:02 PM)formerjmusprinter84 Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 07:12 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Colgate (9-1/6-0) schedule:
9/1 W Holy Cross (5-6) 24-17
9/8 W @ UNH (4-7) 10-3
9/15 Cancelled @ Furman
9/22 W Lafayette (3-8) 45-0
9/29 W @ W&M (4-6) 23-0
10/6 W @ Bucknell (1-10) 27-3
10/13 W Cornell (3-7) 31-0
10/27 W Georgetown (5-6) 38-0
11/3 W @ Fordham (2-9) 41-0
11/10 W @ Lehigh (3-8) 48-6
11/17 L @ #23 Army (9-2) 28-14
https://gocolgateraiders.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=340

Stats:
https://gocolgateraiders.com/cumestats.a...h=football

The 9 FCS schools that they beat had an average of 3.33 wins for the season.

True, but if you take away Holy Cross, UNH, Lafayette, W&M, Bucknell, Cornell, Georgetown, Fordham and Lehigh, they played a really tough schedule.

(11-26-2018 03:32 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  True, but if you take away Holy Cross, UNH, Lafayette, W&M, Bucknell, Cornell, Georgetown, Fordham and Lehigh, they played a really tough schedule.

You must be a bizzzon fan with that level of spin and wishful thinking. It's sad how their fans actively root for the easiest team to advance in their bracket. You'd think after six titles in seven years, they'd invite a challenge, but no.

The Line in the game (according to 5Dimes) opened at JMU -2.5 this morning with an over/under of 34.5.

Money has been flowing in on JMU and the line has now moved all the way to JMU -6

I just have a feeling that as long as we bring our A game we've seen this season, we'll win by at least 2 scores and this will be put to bed by no later than late 3rd quarter.

I don't see us losing unless we start to lose the turnover battle and give them defensive scores or short TD drives at the 19.

Dukes Crush