In my opinion the key to the game, as is the case for most, is the play of the offensive line. Create holes like the Toledo game which opens up passing routes and we stand a strong chance of winning. Passes don't need to be 40 yards downfield, see Ohio State v Michigan last Saturday, for the passing game to be effective.

First of many previews of the MACC:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2808029-2018-mac-championship-game-odds-analysis-college-football-betting-pick

I have never put much faith in Bleacher Report. However, the conclusions are correct. The defenses are even: NIU is # 26 (344 yards per game) and Buffalo is tied for # 27 (344.4 yards per game); and for total offense Buffalo is # 53 (419.4 yards per game) and NIU is # 124 (318 years per game) so they are 100 yards per game better on offense. Of course, the scoreboard keeps track of points not yards. Buffalo is # 26 in scoring offense (35.3 points per game) and NIU is # 24 in scoring defense (20.9 points per game). We have all seen our D often stiffen in the red zone and allow only a FG attempt v. a TD. So we have a good scoring O v. a good scoring D. I see it being very critical that we limit Buffalo to FG attempts and not give up TDs. Also, Buffalo's scoring D is not statistically as good as their total defense, since is tied for # 41 (24.3 points per game). So, when we get in the red zone we will need to score some TDs and not settle for FG attempts. Which team is more successful in the red zone will go a long way to deciding this game.

For those into numbers here is an article from the Buffalo Bull run site: https://www.ubbullrun.com/2018/11/27/181...he-numbers

This from the article is relevant to what I said before about the red zone: "The sore spot for UB’s defense is the redzone. When an opponent gets into the redzone they get into the endzone 2/3rds of the time. and that puts them in the bottom quarter of the FBS." I like that stat a lot and hope we can get TDs 2/3rds of the time we get into the red zone!

NIU is not a good team this year but they have a winning pedigree. They have found ways to win games even while playing poorly. I expect this game to be pretty ugly and finish 23-20, not sure in whose favor.

(11-27-2018 12:03 AM)7 Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 08:00 PM)DiehardHuskie Wrote:  We will get torched.

On the plus side, maybe STF can spend some time with the Buffalo AD and learn how to make bold (and successful) hires in football and basketball.

There is literally no reason to think NIU "will get torched" short of just being a miserable fan.

Bump.

(11-30-2018 09:19 PM)DiehardHuskie Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 12:03 AM)7 Wrote:  

(11-24-2018 08:00 PM)DiehardHuskie Wrote:  We will get torched.

On the plus side, maybe STF can spend some time with the Buffalo AD and learn how to make bold (and successful) hires in football and basketball.

There is literally no reason to think NIU "will get torched" short of just being a miserable fan.

Bump.

Yeah, I've been miserable since the 80s.