(11-26-2018 07:22 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Interesting article on Navy football

https://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/na...y,amp.html

As the bottom feeders continue to build programs, life will get harder for Navy. I think they should be at about 7-8 wins per year, but going beyond that will require another special generational QB for the Mids.

(11-26-2018 08:08 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  

(11-26-2018 07:22 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Interesting article on Navy football

https://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/na...y,amp.html

As the bottom feeders continue to build programs, life will get harder for Navy. I think they should be at about 7-8 wins per year, but going beyond that will require another special generational QB for the Mids.

Not denying that this is a tough conference, and Navy will always have an uphill climb.
One major change to the program when Gladchuk and Johnson came in and success began was scheduling: the stated intent was to build the independent schedule with one third stretch games, one third tossups, and one third we "should" win, the 4-4-4 philosophy in Navy fans' shorthand. With our OOC scheduling now limited to Army, AirForce, ND, and one home game (FCS and specifically our Patriot League all-sports partners for the foreseeable future) that is more like 4-6-2. The specifics are debatable, but ND and the top teams of the league, say one East game and our division's top two as stretch, the other academies and the AAC pack as tossups, and our FCS plus whoever is at the bottom as should-wins. That was even skewed this year, drawing the top three East teams, to 6-4-2 in games played already, 6-5-2 with Army. We stole one stretch game against the division winner, lost another by one score, and lost two LITERAL tossup games on two-point conversions in OT and in the last two minutes...all while having documented self-inflicted problems running our offense at the execution levels we demonstrated for the last fifteen years.

Here's the thing, though: all those inherent disadvantages Wags talks about were present two years ago when we were 18-2 in two years of conference play and preparing for the CCG. 729 days ago, after the SMU game, Wags wrote an article about how strong the program looked. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/colle...story.html

The inherent challenges he cited today didnt just appear in the last two years.

If the AAC does get a P6 media deal, everyone in the conference SHOULD outdistance us. Even smaller Tulsa doesnt have our systemic challenge of finding guys who can get through the academics, and more importantly are willing to sign up for five years in the Navy/Marine Corps.
But at least nine of our conference mates SHOULD already have been head and shoulders ahead of us. We have a ceiling, but i dont think we're at it yet - nor were we when we hosted the CCG.

Wags makes some good points. He overstates others. There will be some soul-searching in the program this off season. There may be staff changes on the defensive side.

Today, I'll predict 7-5(4-4) for next year, because my normal optimism (I think i said 9-4(5-3) before this year after '17 going 7-6(4-4)) is damaged.

Until then, we have a one game season. BEAT ARMY!!!

(11-26-2018 08:08 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  

(11-26-2018 07:22 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Interesting article on Navy football

https://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/na...y,amp.html

As the bottom feeders continue to build programs, life will get harder for Navy. I think they should be at about 7-8 wins per year, but going beyond that will require another special generational QB for the Mids.

One way or another, Army/Navy/Air Force wil have to find a way to bend their academic rules at least a little bit if they want to be any good at all in FBS-level football. That is just a fact and it will never change in our lifetime. The key is identifying how far the rules can be bent, and how many times. I admit I don’t know the answer to those questions, but if I were in Gladchuk’s shoes it would be a very high priority to find out.

Another thing: I have no idea if the AAC has more realignment in its future, or not. But if it does, I’d bet the programs most likely to leave are the ones strongest in football. And — if that happens — there would be a decent chance they’d get replaced by programs like Army or Air Force.

I should be clear that I’m not wishing for that to happen. But if it did happen, it would relieve pressure on Navy football in two ways: replacing one or two conference opponents that recruit at a much higher level with one or two that recruit at a very similar level. And then it frees up one or two OOC games that can be against a weaker opponent if they desire it.

The rest of the AAC looks a lot stronger now than in Navy's first 2 years.

Navy should have an easier sched next year with no Hawaii, AF at home, & USF, UConn & ECU replacing UCF, Cinci & Temple, if this year's relative pecking order continues.

With no experienced returning QB, the sched relief will be needed.

(11-26-2018 11:11 PM)old salt Wrote:  The rest of the AAC looks a lot stronger now than in Navy's first 2 years.

That's debatable.
UCF and Cinci do. Temple won the East in Navys first two years but not now.
Houston looked stronger in 15-16 than now. In 15 Memphis whupped ranked Mississippi, this year got whupped by Missouri. Tulsa looked a lot stronger in 15-16 than now.
By computer metrics this is a down year for the AAC. In Massey Composite AAC is not/not closer to #5 than to the G4 like it was for prior three years. Conference average ranking in that Massey Composite is 75.60 this year compared to 68.95, 68.68, and 66.69 to finish '15, '16, and '17.

Georgia Southern (FCS at the time), takes one of the most dominant Nick Saban national championship teams well into the fourth quarter. Why? How?
Because the wishbone is such a fundamental departure from any of the "current schemes" developed over the last few decades that defensive coordinators and opposing players fall short of understanding the wishbone's challenge. When you play Navy every year in the AAC West that novelty wears off. The single greates advantage the the service academies have is flexibility of scheduling. With Navy joining the AAC thay are at a particular (and growing), disadvantage.
Check out Nick Saban's homage to the wishbone:
https://youtu.be/2bEa5MI3WwQ