If JMU goes 11-7 in conference this year, I am going to feel really good about our season. If we go 7-11, I am going to feel bad.

Attendance is trending at new record lows

(12-15-2018 08:09 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  If JMU goes 11-7 in conference this year, I am going to feel really good about our season. If we go 7-11, I am going to feel bad.

The Good Guys open the CAA schedule at W&M and then at Elon. Winning both games is possible and we absolutely need to win at least one of those 2 before coming home for 3 straight.

You could argue that JMU should open 3-0 if we are going to be a top 4 CAA team this year. Our history at W & M is bad though.

I have been disappointed by the CAA in OOC games this year. I thought the league would be better with many of the league’s top players returning.
But the OOC record is poor at 44-50 and there are only a couple of games left for most teams before CAA play.
JMU sits at 5-5 and will finish OOC at either 6-5 or 5-6. Neither of which is satisfactory for playing such a weak OOC schedule.

So we are looking at a one bid league again with nobody that is super strong. All teams are above 100 in the Sagarins and this is about the time of year when the rankings are pretty solid. So what we have is a down year for the CAA and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the 10 teams wins the CAA tourney. It is there for the taking.

105 Hofstra = 76.62 8 3 66.78( 325)
106 Northeastern = 76.57 5 5 77.60( 27)
118 College of Charleston = 75.43 7 2 69.72( 251)
203 William & Mary = 69.11 3 7 73.77( 110)
204 NC Wilmington = 69.11 3 6 71.42( 188)
218 Delaware = 68.30 6 3 67.74( 306)
241 Drexel = 66.65 4 5 67.63( 310)
247 James Madison = 66.51 5 5 69.10( 268)
287 Towson = 63.86 2 7 69.75( 250)
311 Elon = 62.49 1 7 71.58(181)

(12-16-2018 12:05 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  I have been disappointed by the CAA in OOC games this year. I thought the league would be better with many of the league’s top players returning.
But the OOC record is poor at 44-50 and there are only a couple of games left for most teams before CAA play.
JMU sits at 5-5 and will finish OOC at either 6-5 or 5-6. Neither of which is satisfactory for playing such a weak OOC schedule.

So we are looking at a one bid league again with nobody that is super strong. All teams are above 100 in the Sagarins and this is about the time of year when the rankings are pretty solid. So what we have is a down year for the CAA and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the 10 teams wins the CAA tourney. It is there for the taking.

105 Hofstra = 76.62 8 3 66.78( 325)
106 Northeastern = 76.57 5 5 77.60( 27)
118 College of Charleston = 75.43 7 2 69.72( 251)
203 William & Mary = 69.11 3 7 73.77( 110)
204 NC Wilmington = 69.11 3 6 71.42( 188)
218 Delaware = 68.30 6 3 67.74( 306)
241 Drexel = 66.65 4 5 67.63( 310)
247 James Madison = 66.51 5 5 69.10( 268)
287 Towson = 63.86 2 7 69.75( 250)
311 Elon = 62.49 1 7 71.58(181)

You wouldn’t be surprised if any of the CAA MBB teams won the CAAT?

You obviously didn’t see COC play VCU yesterday. That team is flat out good, and sadly will wipe the floor with JMU (unless the Duke’s experience a miracle awakening).

I’m hoping for the best, but I’m sadly resigned to another disappointing season. Hope I’m wrong. Santa, please bring me a competitive MBB program!

(12-16-2018 06:19 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(12-16-2018 12:05 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  I have been disappointed by the CAA in OOC games this year. I thought the league would be better with many of the league’s top players returning.
But the OOC record is poor at 44-50 and there are only a couple of games left for most teams before CAA play.
JMU sits at 5-5 and will finish OOC at either 6-5 or 5-6. Neither of which is satisfactory for playing such a weak OOC schedule.

So we are looking at a one bid league again with nobody that is super strong. All teams are above 100 in the Sagarins and this is about the time of year when the rankings are pretty solid. So what we have is a down year for the CAA and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the 10 teams wins the CAA tourney. It is there for the taking.

105 Hofstra = 76.62 8 3 66.78( 325)
106 Northeastern = 76.57 5 5 77.60( 27)
118 College of Charleston = 75.43 7 2 69.72( 251)
203 William & Mary = 69.11 3 7 73.77( 110)
204 NC Wilmington = 69.11 3 6 71.42( 188)
218 Delaware = 68.30 6 3 67.74( 306)
241 Drexel = 66.65 4 5 67.63( 310)
247 James Madison = 66.51 5 5 69.10( 268)
287 Towson = 63.86 2 7 69.75( 250)
311 Elon = 62.49 1 7 71.58(181)

You wouldn’t be surprised if any of the CAA MBB teams won the CAAT?

You obviously didn’t see COC play VCU yesterday. That team is flat out good, and sadly will wipe the floor with JMU (unless the Duke’s experience a miracle awakening).

I’m hoping for the best, but I’m sadly resigned to another disappointing season. Hope I’m wrong. Santa, please bring me a competitive MBB program!

Keep in mind that JMU competed well against COC last year including an overtime loss at the Convo. Not saying that JMU will finish ahead of the Cougars in the standings just saying that Coach Rowe's style and personnel matches up pretty well with Charleston. JMU has had trouble with Northeastern who is not at full strength at the moment but clearly will be at the top of the conference.

To me it boils down to shooting- when JMU shoots well from 3 they've shown they can win against solid competition (the Northern Illinois and Radford games come to mind). The good 3 shooting masks some problems that they still have offensively and with ball control and it opens up enough in other areas to score enough to win close games against good competition. I think you'll see some improvements in this as the season goes on.

Sunday afternoon losses by CAA teams...

Canisius wins at Elon 92-91

Northeastern loses at Vermont 75-70

Delaware loses at Stony Brook 74-68

W&M is currently hosting non-D1 William Peace

Drexel travels to Quinnipiac tonight

When I looked at Gamer last night, it had Dukes going 11-18, 6-12 in the CAA.

DNR Spring 2015 - "Both James Madison athletic director Jeff Bourne and Colonial Athletic Association Commissioner Tom Yeager say the CAA is “close” to being back to where it once was as a men’s basketball league. Both Bourne and Yeager expressed confidence in the direction the league is heading"

Tuesday night around the CAA...

Charleston continues its excellent play winning big at Siena, 83-58. Impressive. (edit note: gotta figure CoC HC Grant is working his way into a likely power conference job in a few months)

Elon is trying to finish off a road win at Kennesaw State, up by 6 with 16 seconds left.

Drexel is getting drilled at UConn by 25 with 12' left in the game.

Wednesday night was rough for the CAA.

Hofstra beat Stony Brook 71-64 on the road.

UNCW lost to Georgia State 86-71 on the road.

Delaware lost to Delaware St 73-71.

The OOC schedule is finished for all CAA teams and it has been a very poor showing.
The CAA is ranked as the 20th conference and I can’t remember a season when it has been lower. There should be plenty of legitimate opportunities for JMU to pick up wins starting this week against 3-8 William & Mary and 2-9 Elon.

As a whole the CAA is 52-63

Sagarin Ratings and record
101 Charleston 10 2
107 Hofstra 9 3
112 Northeastern 6 6
206 William & Mary 3 8
229 NC Wilmington 3 9
236 Delaware 6 5
242 Drexel 5 7
256 James Madison 5 6
278 Towson 3 8
321 Elon 2 9

(12-23-2018 07:39 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  The OOC schedule is finished for all CAA teams and it has been a very poor showing.
The CAA is ranked as the 20th conference and I can’t remember a season when it has been lower.

1. There is one more OOC game when Towson hosts Cornell on Wednesday January 9.
Towson goes to you on January 12, and they have Thursday January 10 off which allows for the OOC games.

2. The CAA is 19th because the Sagarin lists the two divisions of the MAC as separate conferences.

3. The CAA's worst Conference RPI recently was 22nd 2012-2013 when you won in the First Four as a 16 seed. The CAA had 11 teams that season with VCU gone and ODU, GMU, and GSU in their last season. The CAA was 17th in the Sagarin that season, so the CAA is worse in the Sagarin this season.

Charleston won at UNCW last night, 73-66. In the loss, UNCW's Cacock wound up with 27 pts and 19 boards. Impressive individual performance.

(12-25-2018 09:47 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(12-23-2018 07:39 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  The OOC schedule is finished for all CAA teams and it has been a very poor showing.
The CAA is ranked as the 20th conference and I can’t remember a season when it has been lower.

1. There is one more OOC game when Towson hosts Cornell on Wednesday January 9.
Towson goes to you on January 12, and they have Thursday January 10 off which allows for the OOC games.

2. The CAA is 19th because the Sagarin lists the two divisions of the MAC as separate conferences.

3. The CAA's worst Conference RPI recently was 22nd 2012-2013 when you won in the First Four as a 16 seed. The CAA had 11 teams that season with VCU gone and ODU, GMU, and GSU in their last season. The CAA was 17th in the Sagarin that season, so the CAA is worse in the Sagarin this season.

All kinds of feel good nuggets in this post. If it weren't for the MAC being ranked as 2 conferences we'd be 18th instead of 19th. The CAA's worst season was during the big exodus and was the last time we won it. This season is shaping up to be possibly worse. Basically the only shot we have of winning the conference is when the other teams bail or sink to our level.

I'm not up on my Lon G'island geography, but isn't 5 miles south of Hofstra the Atlantic Ocean?

(12-30-2018 02:16 PM)2Buck Wrote:  I'm not up on my Lon G'island geography, but isn't 5 miles south of Hofstra the Atlantic Ocean?

There are a bunch of peninsulas along the south shore. Then there is water, Jones Beach, and then the Atlantic. Using a ruler and the scale from Google Maps, I'm 4.8 miles south of Hofstra (and a little east), and it is 5 miles farther to the Atlantic. Those five miles would cross little islands without any roads and then cross Jones Beach. An east-west line through my house would cross water 9 times in 4.4 miles. On the north shore, there are points about 1.4 miles apart on a line, but on roads it's 19.2 miles that takes 41 minutes according to Google Maps in order to get around the Long Island Sound. In between the shores, what could be problematic for drivers is how many streets change names. One street has seven names. Near Hofstra there's a fork in the road without a street sign. Have any of you seen a game at Hofstra?

Heading into next week the Dukes are tied for last place with Towson and Elon at 2-5. They play the first and second place teams in Hofstra and Northeastern and that will mark the halfway point of the CAA season. Obviously, JMU will be an underdog in both contests and could easily reach the end of first round robin in last place at 2-7.
It would be very hard for the Dukes to get out of the Keener round from that far back in the standings.

We need to see JMU pull at least one upset this coming week to keep things interesting for tournament seeding.

Hart:

JMU will be in the Keener round. Book it. Good kids but this team doesn’t have the post play to win consistently. They play Hofstra and a healthy NU twice each in the last 11 games. That is likely four losses there. If they go 4-3 in the other games, that gives them 6 wins at most in the conference. That puts them in as the 8-10 seed.

You should hope that the pack splits up. You should hope that Delaware, Charleston, and William & Mary finish in the top five and win all their games against Drexel, Towson, UNCW, and Elon to have 4 teams behind you. The situation would be the same if two teams swapped groups. To quantify, if fourth and fifth get 11 or 12 wins, that's good for you. If fourth and fifth get 9 or 10 wins and are closer to the teams below them, 6 wins would put you in the Keener round.