With Delaware and Stony Brook facing bottom tier opponents this week, I see Maine beating Elon and winning the AQ. Delaware and Stony Brook would be locked with 8 wins. If we lose to Towson, that would leave us in the uncomfortable situation of having 4 losses along with Elon, and them having the head to head over us. It's an odd situation, but with a win I could see us being a 5 or 6 seed.....and a loss, could unthinkably leave us out altogether. Elon getting blown out by Towson, and losing their last two to end the year would maybe help us, but I'd hate to be on the line with a team we have a head to head loss with. Thoughts?

I don’t think our loss to NC State will be considered

(11-14-2018 01:54 PM)lessercc Wrote:  With Delaware and Stony Brook facing bottom tier opponents this week, I see Maine beating Elon and winning the AQ. Delaware and Stony Brook would be locked with 8 wins. If we lose to Towson, that would leave us in the uncomfortable situation of having 4 losses along with Elon, and them having the head to head over us. It's an odd situation, but with a win I could see us being a 5 or 6 seed.....and a loss, could unthinkably leave us out altogether. Thoughts?

Sort of already discussed in other playoff/seeding threads.

Never say never, but seems highly unlikely we would go from 2 seed to not making the field. Elon seems the CAA bubble team if they lose to Maine.

Most likely, with a win we have a seed and bye week. With a loss we are probably playing first round at BFS unseeded in a regional matchup.

I would argue that our playoffs started last weekend. We really can't afford another loss from here on out. That said, it would be pretty ballsy of the committee to leave out a 7-4 (7-3 vs FCS) JMU team that would still be ranked in the Top 20 in all the polls, coming off two consecutive trips to Frisco, and with only one "bad" loss.

We'd be buying any home game we get, but I think we'd be in.

Could come down to whether the committee will put in a sixth CAA team or a third MVFC team. No Valley team can get to more than 6 D1 wins so it would be a 6 win team over a 7 win (or 6 for Elon) team. I think JMU is in no matter what but another deserving CAA team could get left out

I don’t know about a “play-in” game, but I think they better be looking at it as a playoff level game if that makes any sense/distinction.

Meaning, their approach needs to be one of building momentum, getting a big road W, getting a seed and week off.

I think we’re def in, but lay another one down this weekend and we have a MUCH tougher path, what mo we have is stopped, players start having doubts.
IOW’s I could then see an early exit. Need a w Saturday.

Go Dukes!

Beat Tiggers!

(11-14-2018 03:08 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  I don’t know about a “play-in” game, but I think they better be looking at it as a playoff level game if that makes any sense/distinction.

Meaning, their approach needs to be one of building momentum, getting a big road W, getting a seed and week off.

I think we’re def in, but lay another one down this weekend and we have a MUCH tougher path, what mo we have is stopped, players start having doubts.
IOW’s I could then see an early exit. Need a w Saturday.

Go Dukes!

Beat Tiggers!

Agreed. Lets get a W and leave no doubt. Play loose and confident and have some fun. A W changes the color and landscape of the playoffs significantly vs. a L. As stated not a play in game in my opinion but a playoff type game with, I think some far reaching implications for future success.

NH went 7-4 last year with all four losses coming at the FCS level. They finished with the #31 SRS which is not good obviously (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ngs-system) and they still made the playoffs. I am not saying they got preferential treatment because they are a perennial playoff participant, but c'mon we all see what it is.

I strongly feel that JMU is in the playoffs already and we are playing for a seed this weekend. The exception would be getting the doors blown off by Towson this weekend. A nasty blowout would hurt. Even with 1 more loss, JMU's SRS will be reputable and the losses are tolerable with 1 ACC + 3 CAA losses. Even if its on reputation and revenue potential, I don't think the NCAA can or should keep JMU out at this point.

I'm fairly certain first round bids have already been submitted. Would not have wanted to be part of that decision after the past couple seasons when it was a moot point.

I dont believe that the home games can be bought anymore with a high bid. I seem to remember them changing that process.

do you really think they are going to send us to colgate to play in front of 1500 fans?

boy, if we were matched up with Colgate, i dont think I could take another loss to those guys.

(11-14-2018 05:17 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  I dont believe that the home games can be bought anymore with a high bid. I seem to remember them changing that process.

do you really think they are going to send us to colgate to play in front of 1500 fans?

boy, if we were matched up with Colgate, i dont think I could take another loss to those guys.

From a prior thread:

The official hosting criteria for non-seeds is now:
1) quality of facility
2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts
3) attendance history and potential
4) team’s performance (conference place finish, head to head results, number of Div I games)
5) student athlete well being (travel and missed class time)

Bid packages are still submitted. Some folks here question whether the primary (only?) criteria is the bid amount, or these other factors matter too.

Either way, JMU should be in a good position to host if we submit a strong bid. If we get outbid by a lot? Who knows ...

I think we are already in, but anything is possible. Would hate to get blown out and have to find out on Sunday.

(11-14-2018 05:17 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  I dont believe that the home games can be bought anymore with a high bid. I seem to remember them changing that process.

do you really think they are going to send us to colgate to play in front of 1500 fans?

boy, if we were matched up with Colgate, i dont think I could take another loss to those guys.

How did you come up with something I may or may not have been thinking. I simply am stating that we knew we'd be seeded prior to bidding the past two seasons which made bidding pointless for us. Now we're back to pre-MH decision making which is uncomfortable for our decision makers.

JMU's bid would have no impact on a matchup with Colgate anyway. Colgate is going to likely be seeded with a good showing vs Army. So if they're higher than JMU, yes JMU will be playing at Colgate.

(11-14-2018 09:14 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  JMU's bid would have no impact on a matchup with Colgate anyway. Colgate is going to likely be seeded with a good showing vs Army. So if they're higher than JMU, yes JMU will be playing at Colgate.

Anything can happen but Army is HEAVILY favored with an implied winning % of 85%.

(11-14-2018 04:35 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  NH went 7-4 last year with all four losses coming at the FCS level. They finished with the #31 SRS which is not good obviously (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ngs-system) and they still made the playoffs. I am not saying they got preferential treatment because they are a perennial playoff participant, but c'mon we all see what it is.

I strongly feel that JMU is in the playoffs already and we are playing for a seed this weekend. The exception would be getting the doors blown off by Towson this weekend. A nasty blowout would hurt. Even with 1 more loss, JMU's SRS will be reputable and the losses are tolerable with 1 ACC + 3 CAA losses. Even if its on reputation and revenue potential, I don't think the NCAA can or should keep JMU out at this point.

I don't think it's really a concern about the resume. I think if JMU had the exact same record against the exact same teams, but a loss were to leave them at 4th place in the conference, no one would have any concerns at all. As it currently stands, though, a loss will very possibly put them 6th in the conference, and will the committee be comfortable taking that many teams and/or picking JMU over a team that finished ahead of them?

(11-15-2018 12:36 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 04:35 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  NH went 7-4 last year with all four losses coming at the FCS level. They finished with the #31 SRS which is not good obviously (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ngs-system) and they still made the playoffs. I am not saying they got preferential treatment because they are a perennial playoff participant, but c'mon we all see what it is.

I strongly feel that JMU is in the playoffs already and we are playing for a seed this weekend. The exception would be getting the doors blown off by Towson this weekend. A nasty blowout would hurt. Even with 1 more loss, JMU's SRS will be reputable and the losses are tolerable with 1 ACC + 3 CAA losses. Even if its on reputation and revenue potential, I don't think the NCAA can or should keep JMU out at this point.

I don't think it's really a concern about the resume. I think if JMU had the exact same record against the exact same teams, but a loss were to leave them at 4th place in the conference, no one would have any concerns at all. As it currently stands, though, a loss will very possibly put them 6th in the conference, and will the committee be comfortable taking that many teams and/or picking JMU over a team that finished ahead of them?

We will win this weekend! We got it all together last Saturday and we are ready to go!

(11-15-2018 12:36 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  I don't think it's really a concern about the resume. I think if JMU had the exact same record against the exact same teams, but a loss were to leave them at 4th place in the conference, no one would have any concerns at all. As it currently stands, though, a loss will very possibly put them 6th in the conference, and will the committee be comfortable taking that many teams and/or picking JMU over a team that finished ahead of them?

I must've missed the bullet point in the 2018 Division One Football Pre-Championship Manual that says that a maximum number of teams from any conferences should be considered. I did see the bullet point that says the the committee shall select the best teams available.

Maybe you can point it out to me...

At-large teams shall be selected by the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee, assisted by four regional
advisory committees that serve in an advisory capacity only.
The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket. Per NCAA
Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record,
(2) strength of schedule, and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents;
5. If a committee member’s institution is under consideration, that committee member will not be allowed in the room during
discussions involving his/her team and may not vote for his/her team during the voting process. Similarly, a committee
member from a conference office may not be present during discussions, nor vote for any team from his/her conference.

Also no reference to conference only records. They look at all games and that is where some bubble teams might separate.
Maybe a bunch of teams in a particular conference finish 5-3 in conference and 7-4 overall. The quality of their 2 OOC wins may push them over the hump.

(11-15-2018 01:21 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 12:36 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  I don't think it's really a concern about the resume. I think if JMU had the exact same record against the exact same teams, but a loss were to leave them at 4th place in the conference, no one would have any concerns at all. As it currently stands, though, a loss will very possibly put them 6th in the conference, and will the committee be comfortable taking that many teams and/or picking JMU over a team that finished ahead of them?

I must've missed the bullet point in the 2018 Division One Football Pre-Championship Manual that says that a maximum number of teams from any conferences should be considered. I did see the bullet point that says the the committee shall select the best teams available.

Maybe you can point it out to me...

At-large teams shall be selected by the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee, assisted by four regional
advisory committees that serve in an advisory capacity only.
The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket. Per NCAA
Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record,
(2) strength of schedule, and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents;
5. If a committee member’s institution is under consideration, that committee member will not be allowed in the room during
discussions involving his/her team and may not vote for his/her team during the voting process. Similarly, a committee
member from a conference office may not be present during discussions, nor vote for any team from his/her conference.

I agree it's nowhere in the criteria, but that doesn't mean it's not in the back of the committee members' minds. You even said in your first post about UNH that you think there's a chance they got preferential treatment last year since they're a perennial playoff team. Same kind of deal.