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Very hypothetical, and not trying to look to next year, but just curious what others think here.

Next year we have UCLA (should be improved) and OSU (always a top 10 team) in Columbus. Let's say we win those games and go undefeated the rest the way beating maybe 2 or 3 top 25 AAC teams (UCF, Houston, USF, etc.). Also let's assume there aren't 4 undefeated P5 teams (there never is), does this warrant us a spot in the CFP?

My point isn't whether I think we can do that next year or not. But more a less to determine if there truly is no pathway as has been repeated.

I think if they'd win out until then, they'd be in.

(11-14-2018 05:56 AM)jarr Wrote:  Very hypothetical, and not trying to look to next year, but just curious what others think here.

Next year we have UCLA (should be improved) and OSU (always a top 10 team) in Columbus. Let's say we win those games and go undefeated the rest the way beating maybe 2 or 3 top 25 AAC teams (UCF, Houston, USF, etc.). Also let's assume there aren't 4 undefeated P5 teams (there never is), does this warrant us a spot in the CFP?

My point isn't whether I think we can do that next year or not. But more a less to determine if there truly is no pathway as has been repeated.

UC is more likely an 8 win team next than undefeated but there is path to playoff if you play that type of schedule.

9 times out of 10 I say no, but the Committee really loves OSU. Winning out, especially if OSU is 11-1 or at worst 10-2 puts you squarely in the conversation. At that point, it just depends on ND and who is #2 in the SEC.

There is no real path for an outsider to get in. Technically it exists, but it has to include beating a legit blue blood title contender. IMO beating a very good P5 still isn't enough, it has to be an elite team. [/align]That opportunity almost never exists, but next year it's there.

I think we would have to play at least 2 additional ranked teams. If OSU has a typical OSU year and if UCLA finishes 8-4 or so or better (and possibly ranked), I think we would have to play UCF when they are ranked and USF or Temple when they are ranked. That would probably put us in the top 30 or so in strength of schedule (guessing here) to get us close. Then we would still need help from the committee. First step for that for next year would be winning out this year and getting favorable rankings to start the year next year. Remember when Baylor, a "P" team, was left out of the playoffs. We don't have that magical, arbitrary designation and they weren't deemed worthy then...they aren't a brand name (another arbitrary ESPN designation). My guess is, even if we do what we need to do, we wouldn't be one of the chosen ones next year. And, just for some background, college football is probably my favorite sport and UC is definitely my favorite team. I'm just keeping it real.

(11-14-2018 08:33 AM)bearcatdp Wrote:  I think we would have to play at least 2 additional ranked teams. If OSU has a typical OSU year and if UCLA finishes 8-4 or so or better (and possibly ranked), I think we would have to play UCF when they are ranked and USF or Temple when they are ranked. That would probably put us in the top 30 or so in strength of schedule (guessing here) to get us close. Then we would still need help from the committee. First step for that for next year would be winning out this year and getting favorable rankings to start the year next year. Remember when Baylor, a "P" team, was left out of the playoffs. We don't have that magical, arbitrary designation and they weren't deemed worthy then...they aren't a brand name (another arbitrary ESPN designation). My guess is, even if we do what we need to do, we wouldn't be one of the chosen ones next year. And, just for some background, college football is probably my favorite sport and UC is definitely my favorite team. I'm just keeping it real.

I also think we'd have to make the BCS game this year and beat someone like Auburn and start highly ranked next season as well. I still don't see it happening.

If osu is a playoff contender and UCLA has a winning record in the pac 12 then running the table should give them a good chance.

That's the kind of perfect storm I'm skeptical of but it's possible.

(11-14-2018 11:08 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  If osu is a playoff contender and UCLA has a winning record in the pac 12 then running the table should give them a good chance.

That's the kind of perfect storm I'm skeptical of but it's possible.

It's obvious that this type of scheduling is the only chance of UC making the CFP.

The question becomes, how much will it cost us financially to get two marquee out of conferences games like this every year? Understandably the schedule is pretty much set for the next 4-5 years and all we can do is hope the Marshalls, Nebraskas, Indianas we have scheduled can do better than expected.

2 very high marquee OOC, a better Miami squad, a top of their conference G5, and for 2-3 ranked AAC games each year seems to be the recipe for getting recognized nationally.

(11-14-2018 11:15 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 11:08 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  If osu is a playoff contender and UCLA has a winning record in the pac 12 then running the table should give them a good chance.

That's the kind of perfect storm I'm skeptical of but it's possible.

It's obvious that this type of scheduling is the only chance of UC making the CFP.

The question becomes, how much will it cost us financially to get two marquee out of conferences games like this every year? Understandably the schedule is pretty much set for the next 4-5 years and all we can do is hope the Marshalls, Nebraskas, Indianas we have scheduled can do better than expected.

2 very high marquee OOC, a better Miami squad, a top of their conference G5, and for 2-3 ranked AAC games each year seems to be the recipe for getting recognized nationally.

The other thing is UC should be playing a really good schedule within the conference next year.

(11-14-2018 11:08 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  If osu is a playoff contender and UCLA has a winning record in the pac 12 then running the table should give them a good chance.

That's the kind of perfect storm I'm skeptical of but it's possible.

Well said. So much can happen between now and next September. We're seeing some amazing work from seniors on offense and defense and while I believe in "next man in" for us to expect even equivalent performance against very tough competition early next season is asking a lot.

All this is to say we should be totally focused on enjoying the ride in this moment. This team has surprised us all and is marching toward a rare ten win season and a decent bowl--worst case. So many factors have to converge in a single season to make that possible.

So for me, I'll worry about next year, next year.

(11-14-2018 11:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 11:15 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 11:08 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  If osu is a playoff contender and UCLA has a winning record in the pac 12 then running the table should give them a good chance.

That's the kind of perfect storm I'm skeptical of but it's possible.

It's obvious that this type of scheduling is the only chance of UC making the CFP.

The question becomes, how much will it cost us financially to get two marquee out of conferences games like this every year? Understandably the schedule is pretty much set for the next 4-5 years and all we can do is hope the Marshalls, Nebraskas, Indianas we have scheduled can do better than expected.

2 very high marquee OOC, a better Miami squad, a top of their conference G5, and for 2-3 ranked AAC games each year seems to be the recipe for getting recognized nationally.

The other thing is UC should be playing a really good schedule within the conference next year.

Yep, Memphis and Houston back on the schedule and dropping Tulane and SMU will help our schedule rank considerably.

OK... If we had beaten UCLA... won AT Ohio St. ... and then... went undefeated in the AAC over the likes of UCF, Temple, USF, Houston and Memphis...

I think the uproar to let us in would be too much to ignore. If they didn't let us in then it would be to obvious that their company line that the G5's are able to make the CFP was just a charade.

Plus... I think this scenario would be good fit because this Alabama/Clemson thing is getting a bit boring. Letting a little guy in would spice things up a bit.

(11-14-2018 07:39 AM)Teakwood Wrote:  9 times out of 10 I say no, but the Committee really loves OSU. Winning out, especially if OSU is 11-1 or at worst 10-2 puts you squarely in the conversation. At that point, it just depends on ND and who is #2 in the SEC.

There is no real path for an outsider to get in. Technically it exists, but it has to include beating a legit blue blood title contender. IMO beating a very good P5 still isn't enough, it has to be an elite team. [/align]That opportunity almost never exists, but next year it's there.

Well. I believe that should be part of the criteria, beating a legit blue blood. Again this is all hypothetical and we would actually have to win these games. I am more or less curious of there if the path could actually exist or if we truly are excluded.

(11-14-2018 11:58 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  OK... If we had beaten UCLA... won AT Ohio St. ... and then... went undefeated in the AAC over the likes of UCF, Temple, USF, Houston and Memphis...

I think the uproar to let us in would be too much to ignore. If they didn't let us in then it would be to obvious that their company line that the G5's are able to make the CFP was just a charade.

Plus... I think this scenario would be good fit because this Alabama/Clemson thing is getting a bit boring. Letting a little guy in would spice things up a bit.

I want nothing more than to put the committee in the position to have to make that choice (same if Houston ran the table a few years back). It's obvious UCF's schedule is weak and that's a legitimate reason to not let them in. What happens when a G5 school has a respectable schedule?

If they left out an undefeated 2019 Cincinnati team with their schedule, you may see the roots of an anti-trust lawsuit forming similar to what the MWC had planned during the Power 6 AQ/BCS days.

Sigh...

I don't see it happening... Period.

And there will not be an "anti-trust lawsuit."

UCF should be playing up the "our schedule would have been better the last two years without hurricanes stealing our P5 opponent games".

Even if it was just a bad North Carolina team this year.

Houston in 2016 was the blueprint. You have to beat a top 10 blueblood early to get the early resume and poll boost to be in the discussion. It's a shame they wasted those Oklahoma and Louisville wins with a lackluster conference performance. But yes, if we beat UCLA and a top 10 Ohio State we will be in the discussion, and if both teams finish the season ranked it will be almost impossible to keep us out if we run the table.

TCU in 2009 was a blueprint too. Remember, there were 3 undefeated power conference teams that year, plus 12-1 Florida, plus 10-2 champs from the Big 10 and Pac-10 (Ohio State and Oregon).

They beat @Virginia. UVA was awful (3-9), but they were in a power conference.

They won @Clemson. 2009 Clemson was not 2018 Clemson; they were 8-5 and coming off a 7-6 season. But they did pull of an upset in the ACC championship game and beat 10-3 Georgia Tech, winning the ACC.

They beat 2 ranked teams in conference, BYU (#15 in the last regular season poll) and Utah (#23).

I'd be shocked if our 2019 schedule is weaker than 2009 TCU's. And they had a harder path to #4 because there were 6 power conferences at the time.

It helps that the teams we play in our conference all play P5 teams at home:

Houston plays Oklahoma and has a home game vs Washington State.

UCF hosts Stanford and plays @Pitt.

USF plays @Georgia Tech, and hosts Wisconsin and BYU.

Temple plays home games against Maryland and Georgia Tech.

Memphis hosts Ole Miss.

UConn hosts Illinois and plays @Indiana.

ECU hosts Virginia Tech and plays @NC State.

Tulsa hosts Oklahoma State and plays @Michigan State.

(11-14-2018 05:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  It helps that the teams we play in our conference all play P5 teams at home:

Houston plays Oklahoma and has a home game vs Washington State.

UCF hosts Stanford and plays @Pitt.

USF plays @Georgia Tech, and hosts Wisconsin and BYU.

Temple plays home games against Maryland and Georgia Tech.

Memphis hosts Ole Miss.

UConn hosts Illinois and plays @Indiana.

ECU hosts Virginia Tech and plays @NC State.

Tulsa hosts Oklahoma State and plays @Michigan State.

Wow - that's some damn good scheduling.