(11-13-2018 08:47 AM)JMUTrippster Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 08:03 PM)Purple Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 06:19 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 05:15 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 05:13 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  JMU beat Youngstown State.

Oh yeah

Although for all intensive purposes.....

Another Dukesterism! It is intents and purposes old boy.

I would of never known!

ICWYDT

YABDs

(11-13-2018 10:01 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 08:46 AM)South Main Wrote:  Colgate beats Army, I can see them being #2-3. I see SDSU will be a #2-3 or they will be #6 as the committee will want them to avoid NDSU (dumb), same with us. SDSU is 7-2 vs. FCS competition like a lot of other 7-3 teams, in reality with how bad the MVFC is this year they should be below JMU, SB, Towson..

But as of right now.. I see it as.. 1. NDSU 2. Weber 3. SDSU 4. EWU 5. KSU 6. JMU 7. UCD 8. Colgate

how bad the MVFC is this year? are you possibly letting the eye test and the W/L records cloud your vision in this regard?

Teams in Sagarin Predictor top 25:
MVFC 1
CAA 0

top 100:
MVFC 4
CAA 1

top 150:
MVFC 9
CAA 7

top 164:
the entire MVFC
CAA 9 of 12

MVFC / CAA combined:
NDSU 24
SDSU 57
JMU 79
Illinois State 89
Northern Iowa 93
Stony Brook 115
Western Illinois 121
Towson 122
Delaware 123
Youngstown State 131
Elon 137
South Dakota 138
Maine 143
New Hampshire 144
Indiana State 145
Southern Illinois 149
Villanova 156
Rhode Island 161
Missouri State 164
Richmond 185
W&M 193
Albany 199

MVFC is the best FCS conference and is rated higher than the CUSA and Sunbelt too. This statement is fact and it really isnt even that close. Just because teams 3 through 10 in the MVFC all beat each other round robin style resulting in a bunch of .500 records does not change that all those .500 teams are greater than or equal to the entire CAA outside of JMU. CAA is simply the #2 FCS conference once again this year. There is actually a decent gap between the MVFC and the CAA. What's alarming is that the CAA is barely above the Big Sky and Southern. I am basing this on Sagarin Predictors, but Massey's numbers tell the exact same story (actually Massey is more down on the CAA than Sagarin is so I chose to present my case using the least supportive data set of the two).

You could successfully argue that the committee won't agree with the metrics and will leave out a lot of the MVFC (and the committee probably should leave them out because the rule book says for them to consider W/L records, SOS, and availability of players as their three main criteria so a bunch of .500 teams is an unfortunate result for the MVFC).

It is highly unlikely that a full season of statistical data has resulted in two different highly reputable analysts coming to the same conclusion... that the MVFC is the best of the FCS and the CAA is #2.

This is very debatable.

Versus (which outperforms Sagarin and most others in predictions) has it:
Ivy League - FCS #1
CUSA - FBS #11
CAA - FCS #2
MVFC - FCS #3
Big Sky - FCS #4

Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

Rest of MVFC teams do not rank as highly overall as the CAA (or Ivy) does.

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:01 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 08:46 AM)South Main Wrote:  Colgate beats Army, I can see them being #2-3. I see SDSU will be a #2-3 or they will be #6 as the committee will want them to avoid NDSU (dumb), same with us. SDSU is 7-2 vs. FCS competition like a lot of other 7-3 teams, in reality with how bad the MVFC is this year they should be below JMU, SB, Towson..

But as of right now.. I see it as.. 1. NDSU 2. Weber 3. SDSU 4. EWU 5. KSU 6. JMU 7. UCD 8. Colgate

how bad the MVFC is this year? are you possibly letting the eye test and the W/L records cloud your vision in this regard?

Teams in Sagarin Predictor top 25:
MVFC 1
CAA 0

top 100:
MVFC 4
CAA 1

top 150:
MVFC 9
CAA 7

top 164:
the entire MVFC
CAA 9 of 12

MVFC / CAA combined:
NDSU 24
SDSU 57
JMU 79
Illinois State 89
Northern Iowa 93
Stony Brook 115
Western Illinois 121
Towson 122
Delaware 123
Youngstown State 131
Elon 137
South Dakota 138
Maine 143
New Hampshire 144
Indiana State 145
Southern Illinois 149
Villanova 156
Rhode Island 161
Missouri State 164
Richmond 185
W&M 193
Albany 199

MVFC is the best FCS conference and is rated higher than the CUSA and Sunbelt too. This statement is fact and it really isnt even that close. Just because teams 3 through 10 in the MVFC all beat each other round robin style resulting in a bunch of .500 records does not change that all those .500 teams are greater than or equal to the entire CAA outside of JMU. CAA is simply the #2 FCS conference once again this year. There is actually a decent gap between the MVFC and the CAA. What's alarming is that the CAA is barely above the Big Sky and Southern. I am basing this on Sagarin Predictors, but Massey's numbers tell the exact same story (actually Massey is more down on the CAA than Sagarin is so I chose to present my case using the least supportive data set of the two).

You could successfully argue that the committee won't agree with the metrics and will leave out a lot of the MVFC (and the committee probably should leave them out because the rule book says for them to consider W/L records, SOS, and availability of players as their three main criteria so a bunch of .500 teams is an unfortunate result for the MVFC).

It is highly unlikely that a full season of statistical data has resulted in two different highly reputable analysts coming to the same conclusion... that the MVFC is the best of the FCS and the CAA is #2.

This is very debatable.

Versus (which outperforms Sagarin and most others in predictions) has it:
Ivy League - FCS #1
CUSA - FBS #11
CAA - FCS #2
MVFC - FCS #3
Big Sky - FCS #4

Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

Rest of MVFC teams do not rank as highly overall as the CAA (or Ivy) does.

bolded part - HAHAHAHA. Feel free to ask anyone who makes their living in sports data analysis (*cough* sports betting *cough*) if versus is worth a nickle of their time. It isn't.

Let me know when the CAA starts using Versus in their tiebreaker scenarios.

(11-13-2018 11:26 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  This is very debatable.

Versus (which outperforms Sagarin and most others in predictions) has it:
Ivy League - FCS #1
CUSA - FBS #11
CAA - FCS #2
MVFC - FCS #3
Big Sky - FCS #4

Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

Rest of MVFC teams do not rank as highly overall as the CAA (or Ivy) does.

bolded part - HAHAHAHA. Feel free to ask anyone who makes their living in sports data analysis (*cough* sports betting *cough*) if versus is worth a nickle of their time. It isn't.

Let me know when the CAA starts using Versus in their tiebreaker scenarios.

Seriously though - on topic discussion. Check out this link:
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm
Instead of cherry picking our favorite rating systems how about we let the volume of the industry do the speaking. Scroll to the bottom. This is based on 37 different rating systems. MVFC comes out at #1 with the CAA at #2. In fact the MVFC has 20 first place votes to only 3 first place votes for the CAA*.

*and those three are the opinion based ranks of Any Given Sunday, Coaches Poll, and Stats Poll.

This is very undebatable.

(11-13-2018 11:26 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:01 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 08:46 AM)South Main Wrote:  Colgate beats Army, I can see them being #2-3. I see SDSU will be a #2-3 or they will be #6 as the committee will want them to avoid NDSU (dumb), same with us. SDSU is 7-2 vs. FCS competition like a lot of other 7-3 teams, in reality with how bad the MVFC is this year they should be below JMU, SB, Towson..

But as of right now.. I see it as.. 1. NDSU 2. Weber 3. SDSU 4. EWU 5. KSU 6. JMU 7. UCD 8. Colgate

how bad the MVFC is this year? are you possibly letting the eye test and the W/L records cloud your vision in this regard?

Teams in Sagarin Predictor top 25:
MVFC 1
CAA 0

top 100:
MVFC 4
CAA 1

top 150:
MVFC 9
CAA 7

top 164:
the entire MVFC
CAA 9 of 12

MVFC / CAA combined:
NDSU 24
SDSU 57
JMU 79
Illinois State 89
Northern Iowa 93
Stony Brook 115
Western Illinois 121
Towson 122
Delaware 123
Youngstown State 131
Elon 137
South Dakota 138
Maine 143
New Hampshire 144
Indiana State 145
Southern Illinois 149
Villanova 156
Rhode Island 161
Missouri State 164
Richmond 185
W&M 193
Albany 199

MVFC is the best FCS conference and is rated higher than the CUSA and Sunbelt too. This statement is fact and it really isnt even that close. Just because teams 3 through 10 in the MVFC all beat each other round robin style resulting in a bunch of .500 records does not change that all those .500 teams are greater than or equal to the entire CAA outside of JMU. CAA is simply the #2 FCS conference once again this year. There is actually a decent gap between the MVFC and the CAA. What's alarming is that the CAA is barely above the Big Sky and Southern. I am basing this on Sagarin Predictors, but Massey's numbers tell the exact same story (actually Massey is more down on the CAA than Sagarin is so I chose to present my case using the least supportive data set of the two).

You could successfully argue that the committee won't agree with the metrics and will leave out a lot of the MVFC (and the committee probably should leave them out because the rule book says for them to consider W/L records, SOS, and availability of players as their three main criteria so a bunch of .500 teams is an unfortunate result for the MVFC).

It is highly unlikely that a full season of statistical data has resulted in two different highly reputable analysts coming to the same conclusion... that the MVFC is the best of the FCS and the CAA is #2.

This is very debatable.

Versus (which outperforms Sagarin and most others in predictions) has it:
Ivy League - FCS #1
CUSA - FBS #11
CAA - FCS #2
MVFC - FCS #3
Big Sky - FCS #4

Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

Rest of MVFC teams do not rank as highly overall as the CAA (or Ivy) does.

bolded part - HAHAHAHA. Feel free to ask anyone who makes their living in sports data analysis (*cough* sports betting *cough*) if versus is worth a nickle of their time. It isn't.

Let me know when the CAA starts using Versus in their tiebreaker scenarios.

Sagarin generally gets things right about 72% of the time (these stats are tracked too).

Last I looked the best models approached 75%. NONE of them are perfect.

Sagarin has one of the earliest to publish, and has done an excellent job marketing and branding, with distribution in major newspapers. That doesn’t mean it is the best statistical model, or anywhere near infallible.

If Sagarin was always right, JMU had no chance in hell of winning our last NC, and our odds last year weren’t that great either.

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:01 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 08:46 AM)South Main Wrote:  Colgate beats Army, I can see them being #2-3. I see SDSU will be a #2-3 or they will be #6 as the committee will want them to avoid NDSU (dumb), same with us. SDSU is 7-2 vs. FCS competition like a lot of other 7-3 teams, in reality with how bad the MVFC is this year they should be below JMU, SB, Towson..

But as of right now.. I see it as.. 1. NDSU 2. Weber 3. SDSU 4. EWU 5. KSU 6. JMU 7. UCD 8. Colgate

how bad the MVFC is this year? are you possibly letting the eye test and the W/L records cloud your vision in this regard?

Teams in Sagarin Predictor top 25:
MVFC 1
CAA 0

top 100:
MVFC 4
CAA 1

top 150:
MVFC 9
CAA 7

top 164:
the entire MVFC
CAA 9 of 12

MVFC / CAA combined:
NDSU 24
SDSU 57
JMU 79
Illinois State 89
Northern Iowa 93
Stony Brook 115
Western Illinois 121
Towson 122
Delaware 123
Youngstown State 131
Elon 137
South Dakota 138
Maine 143
New Hampshire 144
Indiana State 145
Southern Illinois 149
Villanova 156
Rhode Island 161
Missouri State 164
Richmond 185
W&M 193
Albany 199

MVFC is the best FCS conference and is rated higher than the CUSA and Sunbelt too. This statement is fact and it really isnt even that close. Just because teams 3 through 10 in the MVFC all beat each other round robin style resulting in a bunch of .500 records does not change that all those .500 teams are greater than or equal to the entire CAA outside of JMU. CAA is simply the #2 FCS conference once again this year. There is actually a decent gap between the MVFC and the CAA. What's alarming is that the CAA is barely above the Big Sky and Southern. I am basing this on Sagarin Predictors, but Massey's numbers tell the exact same story (actually Massey is more down on the CAA than Sagarin is so I chose to present my case using the least supportive data set of the two).

You could successfully argue that the committee won't agree with the metrics and will leave out a lot of the MVFC (and the committee probably should leave them out because the rule book says for them to consider W/L records, SOS, and availability of players as their three main criteria so a bunch of .500 teams is an unfortunate result for the MVFC).

It is highly unlikely that a full season of statistical data has resulted in two different highly reputable analysts coming to the same conclusion... that the MVFC is the best of the FCS and the CAA is #2.

This is very debatable.

Versus (which outperforms Sagarin and most others in predictions) has it:
Ivy League - FCS #1
CUSA - FBS #11
CAA - FCS #2
MVFC - FCS #3
Big Sky - FCS #4

Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

Rest of MVFC teams do not rank as highly overall as the CAA (or Ivy) does.

You've got to be kidding me.

You think "Versus" who has the Ivy ranked higher than the MVFC and the CAA outperforms Sagarin?

You honestly believe the Ivy is better than the MVFS and the CAA? That is nutz.

MVFC is still the best conference, but the CAA has closed the gap this year.

You will find few, if any that agree with you in the FCS world that they believe the Ivy is the best FCS league/conference this year.

(11-13-2018 11:43 AM)Dukester Wrote:  You've got to be kidding me.

You think "Versus" who has the Ivy ranked higher than the MVFC and the CAA outperforms Sagarin?

You honestly believe the Ivy is better than the MVFS and the CAA? That is nutz.

MVFC is still the best conference, but the CAA has closed the gap this year.

You will find few, if any that agree with you in the FCS world that they believe the Ivy is the best FCS league/conference this year.

Great post

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

BEWARE THE MIGHTY TIGERS.

Dude, what a joke.

(11-13-2018 12:18 PM)bjk3047 Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

BEWARE THE MIGHTY TIGERS.

Dude, what a joke.

Yale (middle of the pack Ivy at 5-4) beat Maine 35-14
Princeton is undefeated.

Hard to judge with certainty since the Ivies don’t play a ton of MVFC and CAA teams, and avoid the playoffs. But this is certainly a strong year for them.

Also - for those paying attention, the Ivies have had very strong recruiting classes. Those teams have talent.

It really is hard to say on Ivy teams from year to year.

Ivy's often get good recruits and compete with lots of G5's easily. If you can't play at a top school why wouldn't you go to an Ivy?

Based on potential, JMU could win the national championship. Based on performance/results, this team should be seeded 6 or 7. Maybe a 5 seed if a top 5 team loses this weekend. No way should we be a top 4 team if looking at how we performed.

2016 we were rising and peaking at the right time. 2017 we got complacent and blew a championship we should have won. This year, this team will have to get hungry and mean quick to make any sort of run. If they start clicking, I have a good feeling. Go Dukes!

(11-13-2018 12:25 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 12:18 PM)bjk3047 Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 10:52 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Power ranking (predictor) they have:
1 - NDSU
2 - SDSU
3 - Princeton
4 - EWU
5 - JMU

BEWARE THE MIGHTY TIGERS.

Dude, what a joke.

Yale (middle of the pack Ivy at 5-4) beat Maine 35-14
Princeton is undefeated.

Hard to judge with certainty since the Ivies don’t play a ton of MVFC and CAA teams, and avoid the playoffs. But this is certainly a strong year for them.

Also - for those paying attention, the Ivies have had very strong recruiting classes. Those teams have talent.

Couple of points here:

1) The Ivy league at the top has some very good players and Princeton is definitely at top 10 team in the country as I have seen them a few times this year.
2) As far as Yale/Maine goes, Maine did not have their QB in that game which made a huge difference as Maine goes as he goes.

(11-13-2018 08:46 AM)South Main Wrote:  Colgate beats Army, I can see them being #2-3. I see SDSU will be a #2-3 or they will be #6 as the committee will want them to avoid NDSU (dumb), same with us. SDSU is 7-2 vs. FCS competition like a lot of other 7-3 teams, in reality with how bad the MVFC is this year they should be below JMU, SB, Towson..

But as of right now.. I see it as.. 1. NDSU 2. Weber 3. SDSU 4. EWU 5. KSU 6. JMU 7. UCD 8. Colgate

Not necessarily. 2016 they had NDSU #1, JMU #4, SDSU #8. So quarterfinals had a NDSU/SDSU rematch (SDSU won regular season, NDSU rolled in the rematch).

I agree with your 8, except (if no upsets next weekend) replace UCD with Maine. They’re not going to seed 3 Big Sky teams, considering they’ve never seeded 3 from one conference before. Remember last year they only seeded 1 BS team, SUU, and Weber (9-2/7-1) didn’t get seeded.

(11-13-2018 01:51 PM)2Buck Wrote:  Based on potential, JMU could win the national championship. Based on performance/results, this team should be seeded 6 or 7. Maybe a 5 seed if a top 5 team loses this weekend. No way should we be a top 4 team if looking at how we performed.

2016 we were rising and peaking at the right time. 2017 we got complacent and blew a championship we should have won. This year, this team will have to get hungry and mean quick to make any sort of run. If they start clicking, I have a good feeling. Go Dukes!

I think we'll know a lot more by dinnertime Saturday. *IF* Nooch is going to be able to make 15-20 yard throws from sideline to sideline, I feel very good about this team. I'll feel even better when he holds the ball on an RPO and slides after 5 yards. (I don't care about big gains, I care about making a competent threat) When the whole league knew that we were going to run or throw to the flat, 11 defenders can cover that area without fear of anything else. The occasional QB run takes 1 defender away, and throwing mid-depth takes 2 more away; that makes our running attack that much better. Also, like others have said, I'd like HCMH to settle on a prime and secondary running back and run those guys until they're tired. Saturday's a semi-playoff game, where a win gives us a week off and a home game, so if there were ever a time to at least go to chapter 2 in the playbook this is it.

Smite the Tigers.

(11-13-2018 10:01 AM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  MVFC is the best FCS conference and is rated higher than the CUSA and Sunbelt too.

The MVFC is ahead of one division of the Sun Belt, but the average of the Sun Belt's divisions is higher than the MVFC.