Buffalo got a break with S illinois top scorer out with a minor injury, but they are a team that can shoot poorly and win, which is what happened. UB is very physically and mentally tough and will wear down a lot of teams. They wore down W Virginia who is one of the physically strongest and biggest teams in the country and just took down the most physical team in the Valley. SIU was picked to win ahead of Loyola this year.

UB has a couple tricky mid major opponents besides their run of SIU, Syracuse, Marquette and St Bonaventure in December. They need at least 2 of those games and winning 3 would probably secure a tourney bid minus a MAC season letdown or major injuries.

(11-14-2018 12:53 AM)pono Wrote:  Buffalo got a break with S illinois top scorer out with a minor injury, but they are a team that can shoot poorly and win, which is what happened. UB is very physically and mentally tough and will wear down a lot of teams. They wore down W Virginia who is one of the physically strongest and biggest teams in the country and just took down the most physical team in the Valley. SIU was picked to win ahead of Loyola this year.

UB has a couple tricky mid major opponents besides their run of SIU, Syracuse, Marquette and St Bonaventure in December. They need at least 2 of those games and winning 3 would probably secure a tourney bid minus a MAC season letdown or major injuries.

St. Bonaventure is probably more of a must win. They look to be down and that's more likely to be a bad loss than a good win at the end of the year IMO. I think UB needs to beat Cuse or Marquette for at large consideration (if it's needed). Not that I think SIU isn't good, it's just that the committee tends to discount good mid-major wins over other good mid-majors, unless the team they beat has a gaudy record and is ranked. I don't see that being the case for SIU.

(11-14-2018 09:46 AM)eich41 Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 12:53 AM)pono Wrote:  Buffalo got a break with S illinois top scorer out with a minor injury, but they are a team that can shoot poorly and win, which is what happened. UB is very physically and mentally tough and will wear down a lot of teams. They wore down W Virginia who is one of the physically strongest and biggest teams in the country and just took down the most physical team in the Valley. SIU was picked to win ahead of Loyola this year.

UB has a couple tricky mid major opponents besides their run of SIU, Syracuse, Marquette and St Bonaventure in December. They need at least 2 of those games and winning 3 would probably secure a tourney bid minus a MAC season letdown or major injuries.

St. Bonaventure is probably more of a must win. They look to be down and that's more likely to be a bad loss than a good win at the end of the year IMO. I think UB needs to beat Cuse or Marquette for at large consideration (if it's needed). Not that I think SIU isn't good, it's just that the committee tends to discount good mid-major wins over other good mid-majors, unless the team they beat has a gaudy record and is ranked. I don't see that being the case for SIU.

Beating teams with single digit loss columns is key for mid majors like UB. In March if SIU is 20-8 and the 1 or 2 seed in their league that will be good enough. I bet they are a top 150 RPI team border line top 100.

It is still an uphill climb for UB to get an at large IMO. It shouldn't be this way, but getting an at large as a mid major requires almost superhuman focus and luck because a couple of losses on the road in conference can torpedo it.

(11-14-2018 03:38 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It is still an uphill climb for UB to get an at large IMO. It shouldn't be this way, but getting an at large as a mid major requires almost superhuman focus and luck because a couple of losses on the road in conference can torpedo it.

It's early, but so from the limited amount of games and box scores that I've seen around the MAC, the MAC looks to be a pretty deep conference this year. It's going to be challenging for Buffalo to make it through the conference slate with less than 4 losses.

(11-16-2018 09:14 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 03:38 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It is still an uphill climb for UB to get an at large IMO. It shouldn't be this way, but getting an at large as a mid major requires almost superhuman focus and luck because a couple of losses on the road in conference can torpedo it.

It's early, but so from the limited amount of games and box scores that I've seen around the MAC, the MAC looks to be a pretty deep conference this year. It's going to be challenging for Buffalo to make it through the conference slate with less than 4 losses.

I’m not saying you are right or wrong here, but I’d put very little stock in some of the scores and box scores you read. Teams in the this league play very different non league schedules, including a few MAC teams that have already played multiple non D-I teams. That is very different than going into West Virginia and Southern Illinois and coming away with wins.

(11-17-2018 08:55 AM)BullBoy Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 09:14 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 03:38 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It is still an uphill climb for UB to get an at large IMO. It shouldn't be this way, but getting an at large as a mid major requires almost superhuman focus and luck because a couple of losses on the road in conference can torpedo it.

It's early, but so from the limited amount of games and box scores that I've seen around the MAC, the MAC looks to be a pretty deep conference this year. It's going to be challenging for Buffalo to make it through the conference slate with less than 4 losses.

I’m not saying you are right or wrong here, but I’d put very little stock in some of the scores and box scores you read. Teams in the this league play very different non league schedules, including a few MAC teams that have already played multiple non D-I teams. That is very different than going into West Virginia and Southern Illinois and coming away with wins.

I've factored in opponents in my personal observation. Buffalo has looked the best and should be heavily favored to win the conference this year. I never stated otherwise.

(11-17-2018 08:55 AM)BullBoy Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 09:14 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 03:38 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It is still an uphill climb for UB to get an at large IMO. It shouldn't be this way, but getting an at large as a mid major requires almost superhuman focus and luck because a couple of losses on the road in conference can torpedo it.

It's early, but so from the limited amount of games and box scores that I've seen around the MAC, the MAC looks to be a pretty deep conference this year. It's going to be challenging for Buffalo to make it through the conference slate with less than 4 losses.

I’m not saying you are right or wrong here, but I’d put very little stock in some of the scores and box scores you read. Teams in the this league play very different non league schedules, including a few MAC teams that have already played multiple non D-I teams. That is very different than going into West Virginia and Southern Illinois and coming away with wins.

I've factored in opponents in my personal observation. Buffalo has looked the best and should be heavily favored to win the conference this year. I never stated otherwise.

I'd take the under on UB having 4 conference losses. Just too much experience and maturity for the rest of the conference. And of course solid talent. There are some really talented players scattered around the MAC, but other teams have too many holes.

Buffalo at #22 in this weeks poll

On paper, I think it's a 16-2 conference team, over under I could see at 3