(11-08-2018 03:32 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 02:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:52 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-...pens-next/

This article seems to suggest that it might be possible for another suitor to buy out the remaining years of the CBS contract and move us forward soon.

I have heard conservative estimates that our T1 revenue could NET the schools another 7 million a year, and this article suggests more liberal numbers may well be possible. Could we see as much as 11 million more per school or more if the CCG is part of the package as well? Quite possibly!

And if such a move were to be in the offing might it affect the potential for another addition or two? I would have to think so.

Thoughts?

Those numbers seem to suggest that CBS is currently underpaying the SEC $100 million a year for its share of SEC games, and that whoever is paying for the CCG is underpaying by $150 million for that game. I'm officially skeptical. There has to be a lot of double counting of values going on here.

The values have more than doubled since the CBS deal was signed. FOX recently paid the Big 10 almost double what they had been earning under an old contract, and ours is older. The numbers for the top drawing conference would not be that far fetched and the more conservative number of 7 million more per school will be almost a given when the contract is up for bid.

The sticking point I have, is since the deal is up in 2023, like Wedge suggested I don't see the motivation for someone to buy it out early as Travis suggests. And since we are talking about T1 rights only I don't see one of the FAANG companies being involved because the SEC T2 & T3 inventory is off the table and I don't see us putting our best games on a pay for basis. It would hurt exposure too much.

I don't think 11 million more per school when the new deal is signed is outrageous, but it will depend on the market and economic conditions in 2021-2 as to whether that is doable. It's safe to say that the CCG is undervalued, but I agree probably not by half let alone more.

The question here is if the SEC could double it and merely receive the same from another partner for the next 4 years are we really mad at CBS enough to make that move?

Frankly I didn't think the Big 10's last contract was possible. I certainly won't make that mistake with ours, especially given our numbers.

Here's what we know (or we think we know).

1. The current deal with CBS is greatly undervalued.

2. The SEC's relationship with CBS has soured.

3. College football games are generally woth more when broadcast OTA rather than on cable.

Only CBS truly knows what its contract is worth to them. It's worth the ad revenues the games generate, less any production and promotion costs to CBS. The SEC can only guess what that number is.

The SEC can readily get an estimate of how much the games currently under contract would be worth to other suitors. How? By asking them. I don't believe they are prohibited from testing the market during the term of the current contract.

An early buyout only happens if the amount CBS would demand is less than what someone else is willing to pay, or if the SEC believes the market is more favorable today that it will be in 2023 and wants to lock in the favorable value now.

For the most part, it's probable that the SEC wouldn't begin earning the full premium from a new buyer until 2023. That doesn't mean they can't earn a small premium now, and a bigger one in five years.

There could be some premium available for allowing the games to go to a currently less desirable channel like FS1. But it's hard for me to imagine someone paying that premium for many years into the future, when there is so much uncertainty surrounding future delivery platforms.

But what if the SEC "only" winds up getting $10 million a year more per team? Will that really make any competitive difference? They've got to be reaching a point soon, if they haven't already, where they will run out of things to spend all that money on. Heaven forbid they give it to the academic side of their respective schools.

Here's my question. If CBS's deal with the SEC ends, either now or in five years, will they get out of the game, or will they bid on some other conference (or sport)?

They would go after whichever conference they could get cheaply, or if there is a breakaway, or a change due to Alston, they would go for those left behind or competing at a reduce level. They could go after the Big 10 in 2024 but there will be many suitors better funded.

As to the SEC, we are already spending more of that money on basketball and it will only go up, and should we foresee a loss in the Alston case and the advent of pay for play how much really is enough? BTW: The SEC should hit between 45-46 million by the end of this year. We would be looking at 56 plus with a new T1 deal.

(11-08-2018 03:32 PM)ken d Wrote:  [quote='JRsec' pid='15646586' dateline='1541704380']
[quote='ken d' pid='15646523' dateline='1541703156']
[quote='JRsec' pid='15646447' dateline='1541701540']


Here's what we know (or we think we know).

1. The current deal with CBS is greatly undervalued.

2. The SEC's relationship with CBS has soured.

3. College football games are generally worth more when broadcast OTA rather than on cable.

4. CBS' deal isn't for just any SEC games. It's for first pick (that is, the most valuable individual games).

Only CBS truly knows what its contract is worth to them. It's worth the ad revenues the games generate, less any production and promotion costs to CBS. The SEC can only guess what that number is.

The SEC can readily get an estimate of how much the games currently under contract would be worth to other suitors. How? By asking them. I don't believe they are prohibited from testing the market during the term of the current contract.

An early buyout only happens if the amount CBS would demand is less than what someone else is willing to pay, or if the SEC believes the market is more favorable today than it will be in 2023 and wants to lock in the favorable value now.

For the most part, it's probable that the SEC wouldn't begin earning the full premium from a new buyer until 2023. That doesn't mean they can't earn a small premium now, and a bigger one in five years.

There could be some premium available for allowing the games to go to a currently less desirable channel like FS1. But it's hard for me to imagine someone paying that premium for many years into the future, when there is so much uncertainty surrounding future delivery platforms.

But what if the SEC "only" winds up getting $10 million a year more per team? Will that really make any competitive difference? They've got to be reaching a point soon, if they haven't already, where they will run out of things to spend all that money on. Heaven forbid they give it to the academic side of their respective schools.

Here's my question. If CBS's deal with the SEC ends, either now or in five years, will they get out of the game, or will they bid on some other conference (or sport)?

Actually, CBS already holds the rights for C-USA; it's just that C-USA doesn't get the nationwide broadcast that the SEC gets because C-USA for the most part is limited to the CBS Sports Network. CBS also holds the rights to some Navy games, especially Navy-Army.

CBS has had the too must undervalued contracts in sports TV. That weekly SEC contract and The Masters contract which is a one year contract which Augusta National renews annually.
With Les Moonves out at CEO, the entire role of sports for CBS is kinda in the air.

While I have serious gripes about the SECs scheduling philosophy regarding only playing 9 P5 games and allowing weak OOC games in November their Tier 1 rights are some seriously valuable content and whoever is airing them needs to pay top dollar.

If they really wanted to stick it to CBS and increase their leverage on ESPN they'd gut the Big 12 and/or ACC Of their top content to further control the supply of content and access to the South.

So if CBS were to lose its SEC content how does the network fill the void?

(11-08-2018 04:14 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  CBS has had the too must undervalued contracts in sports TV. That weekly SEC contract and The Masters contract which is a one year contract which Augusta National renews annually.
With Les Moonves out at CEO, the entire role of sports for CBS is kinda in the air.

The powers that be at Augusta National are far less concerned with the dollars and more concerned with control. Not only do they receive less from TV because they want the one year contract insuring their will is obeyed, it is also the cheapest of the majors in terms of parking and concession prices.

While CBS is by all accounts getting a bargain TODAY with the SEC, they had the richest offer on the table when the deal was struck.

Beyond the money, CBS offered what ABC refused to offer. A national over-the-air telecast coast-to-coast rather than OTA in part of the country and on cable in the rest.

When the contract expires, which is more important to SEC? Virtually every American able to see their biggest game regardless of whether they have pay tv service or not or possibly more money and some people only accessing the biggest games via pay TV services?

As for the idea of someone buying out CBS, sure it could happen but does the contract require CBS to share a dime of that? The buyer is still going to have to meet the terms of national broadcast which likely rules out ABC, ESPN, TBS/TNT and NBC/NBC Sports entering the fray.

(11-09-2018 11:32 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 04:14 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  CBS has had the too must undervalued contracts in sports TV. That weekly SEC contract and The Masters contract which is a one year contract which Augusta National renews annually.
With Les Moonves out at CEO, the entire role of sports for CBS is kinda in the air.

The powers that be at Augusta National are far less concerned with the dollars and more concerned with control. Not only do they receive less from TV because they want the one year contract insuring their will is obeyed, it is also the cheapest of the majors in terms of parking and concession prices.

While CBS is by all accounts getting a bargain TODAY with the SEC, they had the richest offer on the table when the deal was struck.

Beyond the money, CBS offered what ABC refused to offer. A national over-the-air telecast coast-to-coast rather than OTA in part of the country and on cable in the rest.

When the contract expires, which is more important to SEC? Virtually every American able to see their biggest game regardless of whether they have pay tv service or not or possibly more money and some people only accessing the biggest games via pay TV services?

As for the idea of someone buying out CBS, sure it could happen but does the contract require CBS to share a dime of that? The buyer is still going to have to meet the terms of national broadcast which likely rules out ABC, ESPN, TBS/TNT and NBC/NBC Sports entering the fray.

The goal of the SEC should be both. We should insist on keeping a national game of the week at a specified time, and we should insist on the commensurate rate.

Lots of things expiring around 2023. If there is ever going to be a major shakeup, it's going to have to happen then.

I don't see anybody but ESPN/Disney making a play before then. And I think they would want to know what Texas and Oklahoma are thinking before they extend their current deal.

But I think the B1G decided the way to optimize their leverage was to divide the package rather than give anyone an exclusive deal. That may be how the SEC will go in 2023.

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-...pens-next/

This article seems to suggest that it might be possible for another suitor to buy out the remaining years of the CBS contract and move us forward soon.

I have heard conservative estimates that our T1 revenue could NET the schools another 7 million a year, and this article suggests more liberal numbers may well be possible. Could we see as much as 11 million more per school or more if the CCG is part of the package as well? Quite possibly!

And if such a move were to be in the offing might it affect the potential for another addition or two? I would have to think so.

Thoughts?

Why would CBS do that? They wouldn't.

(11-09-2018 12:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  Lots of things expiring around 2023. If there is ever going to be a major shakeup, it's going to have to happen then.

I don't see anybody but ESPN/Disney making a play before then. And I think they would want to know what Texas and Oklahoma are thinking before they extend their current deal.

But I think the B1G decided the way to optimize their leverage was to divide the package rather than give anyone an exclusive deal. That may be how the SEC will go in 2023.

Actually Ken D the SEC divided their package first. Whether we renew with CBS, or sign with FOX I expect to see our programming in two different hands with one guaranteed national telecast at a dedicated time.

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

Clay is a Bammer, so the issues with math at a non engineering school are to be taken for granted.

The SEC will get a big bump. But the issue at hand is whether another network will try to give it by buying out the last 3 or 4 years of the CBS contract, not whether CBS would increase it now to prevent that.

(11-09-2018 01:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

Clay is a Bammer, so the issues with math at a non engineering school are to be taken for granted.

The SEC will get a big bump. But the issue at hand is whether another network will try to give it by buying out the last 3 or 4 years of the CBS contract, not whether CBS would increase it now to prevent that.

CBS may want to sell off their SEC contract....it just isn't the same without Verne.

(11-09-2018 01:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

Clay is a Bammer, so the issues with math at a non engineering school are to be taken for granted.

The SEC will get a big bump. But the issue at hand is whether another network will try to give it by buying out the last 3 or 4 years of the CBS contract, not whether CBS would increase it now to prevent that.

Clay Travis is a hard core Tennessee fan. He just doesn't have much to talk about these days.

He always exaggerates figures, that's true, but he does generally offer a pretty good perspective on underlying realities.

The opportunity for the SEC to get a bump sooner than later will be if someone like FOX comes in and buys CBS out then follows up by offering a reworked contract to the SEC in exchange for a longer term deal. That would be smart business and it would make everyone happy except new suitors like FAANG that wouldn't get a chance to make a bid in the open market.

CBS should probably take a deal like that because they will lose the SEC either way. Unless a larger media corporation comes in and buys CBS then they will be somewhat hamstrung going forward. They are basically the smallest of the major media companies. They need a backer, so to speak.

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  Lots of things expiring around 2023. If there is ever going to be a major shakeup, it's going to have to happen then.

I don't see anybody but ESPN/Disney making a play before then. And I think they would want to know what Texas and Oklahoma are thinking before they extend their current deal.

But I think the B1G decided the way to optimize their leverage was to divide the package rather than give anyone an exclusive deal. That may be how the SEC will go in 2023.

Actually Ken D the SEC divided their package first. Whether we renew with CBS, or sign with FOX I expect to see our programming in two different hands with one guaranteed national telecast at a dedicated time.

True. But the B1G split somewhere near 50-50. The SEC sort of did. They gave away half of the value of their product to CBS, but for only 25% of the price. They won't make that mistake again.

(11-09-2018 04:32 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 01:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

Clay is a Bammer, so the issues with math at a non engineering school are to be taken for granted.

The SEC will get a big bump. But the issue at hand is whether another network will try to give it by buying out the last 3 or 4 years of the CBS contract, not whether CBS would increase it now to prevent that.

Clay Travis is a hard core Tennessee fan. He just doesn't have much to talk about these days.

He always exaggerates figures, that's true, but he does generally offer a pretty good perspective on underlying realities.

The opportunity for the SEC to get a bump sooner than later will be if someone like FOX comes in and buys CBS out then follows up by offering a reworked contract to the SEC in exchange for a longer term deal. That would be smart business and it would make everyone happy except new suitors like FAANG that wouldn't get a chance to make a bid in the open market.

CBS should probably take a deal like that because they will lose the SEC either way. Unless a larger media corporation comes in and buys CBS then they will be somewhat hamstrung going forward. They are basically the smallest of the major media companies. They need a backer, so to speak.

CBS can afford NFL rights, the NCAA Tournament, two of golf's four majors and they will let the SEC go, even though it is an attractive property for their online venture CBS All Access which provides access to CBS OTA content to subscribers without need for a cable or satellite.

(11-09-2018 05:18 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 04:32 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 01:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

Clay is a Bammer, so the issues with math at a non engineering school are to be taken for granted.

The SEC will get a big bump. But the issue at hand is whether another network will try to give it by buying out the last 3 or 4 years of the CBS contract, not whether CBS would increase it now to prevent that.

Clay Travis is a hard core Tennessee fan. He just doesn't have much to talk about these days.

He always exaggerates figures, that's true, but he does generally offer a pretty good perspective on underlying realities.

The opportunity for the SEC to get a bump sooner than later will be if someone like FOX comes in and buys CBS out then follows up by offering a reworked contract to the SEC in exchange for a longer term deal. That would be smart business and it would make everyone happy except new suitors like FAANG that wouldn't get a chance to make a bid in the open market.

CBS should probably take a deal like that because they will lose the SEC either way. Unless a larger media corporation comes in and buys CBS then they will be somewhat hamstrung going forward. They are basically the smallest of the major media companies. They need a backer, so to speak.

CBS can afford NFL rights, the NCAA Tournament, two of golf's four majors and they will let the SEC go, even though it is an attractive property for their online venture CBS All Access which provides access to CBS OTA content to subscribers without need for a cable or satellite.

CBS enjoys the NCAA tournament because they can purchase it from the NCAA, not from conferences. Basketball, like Football before it would be worth a lot more out of the NCAA's hands.

And they'll let the SEC go because they won't be able to afford to compete. The Master's is a steal for them as well. And their NFL package is way smaller than it was when I was a young married guy, instead of retired married guy.

(11-09-2018 06:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And they'll let the SEC go because they won't be able to afford to compete.

They might let it go, but it won't be because they have no money. CBS' market cap is over $21 billion.

(11-09-2018 04:32 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 01:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The numbers tossed around in that article are so high as to fall into the "delusional homer" category, not surprisingly, but the SEC will get more money for those games in the next contract.

If the average per game of $3.7 million is accurate, the market value is probably about twice that much, in the range of $7-9 million per game.

Don't see any reason why CBS would agree to be bought out for less than the current market value, though. Just to make the math easy, let's say the current average per game cost paid by CBS is $3.7 million and that the value on the open market would be a hefty $8.7 million per game. So CBS is holding an asset worth $8.7 million per game, for 14 games per season, and by selling they avoid paying their current annual cost of $3.7 million per game. That means the market value to buy out CBS is 14 x (8.7 million - 3.7 million) = $70 million for each year remaining on the contract.

Anyone paying CBS for the balance of the contract would then have to pay CBS 5 years times $70 million = $350 million, AND would also have to pay the SEC the market value, about $120 million/year for a new contract for those 14 games per year.

ESPN and Fox have plenty of inventory to keep them going for the next several years. NBC/Comcast are bargain-bin shoppers for everything in sports except NFL and Olympics. Doesn't seem like any of them would write that gigantic check to CBS just for the right to pay top dollar for the first-tier SEC games a few years earlier.

Clay Travis and math are alien to each other. Never take anything he says with math or economics seriously.

Now the SEC will get a big bump on their Tier I when the contract expires, but there's no reason for CBS to do it now.

Clay is a Bammer, so the issues with math at a non engineering school are to be taken for granted.

The SEC will get a big bump. But the issue at hand is whether another network will try to give it by buying out the last 3 or 4 years of the CBS contract, not whether CBS would increase it now to prevent that.

Clay Travis is a hard core Tennessee fan. He just doesn't have much to talk about these days.

He always exaggerates figures, that's true, but he does generally offer a pretty good perspective on underlying realities.

The opportunity for the SEC to get a bump sooner than later will be if someone like FOX comes in and buys CBS out then follows up by offering a reworked contract to the SEC in exchange for a longer term deal. That would be smart business and it would make everyone happy except new suitors like FAANG that wouldn't get a chance to make a bid in the open market.

CBS should probably take a deal like that because they will lose the SEC either way. Unless a larger media corporation comes in and buys CBS then they will be somewhat hamstrung going forward. They are basically the smallest of the major media companies. They need a backer, so to speak.

Well, he went to Vanderbilt and attended Vanderbilt Law school. So maybe he pulls for the Vols since that would be typical of a Commodore. But he sucked up to Bama big time (like Paul Finebaum who actually did attend UT) when he was covering things in Birmingham for his blog.

But I agree that the SEC and FOX or even ABC could work together well on our T1.

@ Wedge: FOX Media is 18 billion, Disney assets 98 billion with a NET worth of 58 billion. FOX now own a nice slice of Disney so I'd say either of them could easily outbid CBS who is leaderless right now.

(11-09-2018 12:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-...pens-next/

This article seems to suggest that it might be possible for another suitor to buy out the remaining years of the CBS contract and move us forward soon.

I have heard conservative estimates that our T1 revenue could NET the schools another 7 million a year, and this article suggests more liberal numbers may well be possible. Could we see as much as 11 million more per school or more if the CCG is part of the package as well? Quite possibly!

And if such a move were to be in the offing might it affect the potential for another addition or two? I would have to think so.

Thoughts?

Why would CBS do that? They wouldn't.

^this

(11-10-2018 09:13 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-...pens-next/

This article seems to suggest that it might be possible for another suitor to buy out the remaining years of the CBS contract and move us forward soon.

I have heard conservative estimates that our T1 revenue could NET the schools another 7 million a year, and this article suggests more liberal numbers may well be possible. Could we see as much as 11 million more per school or more if the CCG is part of the package as well? Quite possibly!

And if such a move were to be in the offing might it affect the potential for another addition or two? I would have to think so.

Thoughts?

Why would CBS do that? They wouldn't.

^this

What CBS does or doesn't do in this case is irrelevant.