(11-10-2018 10:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 09:13 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-...pens-next/

This article seems to suggest that it might be possible for another suitor to buy out the remaining years of the CBS contract and move us forward soon.

I have heard conservative estimates that our T1 revenue could NET the schools another 7 million a year, and this article suggests more liberal numbers may well be possible. Could we see as much as 11 million more per school or more if the CCG is part of the package as well? Quite possibly!

And if such a move were to be in the offing might it affect the potential for another addition or two? I would have to think so.

Thoughts?

Why would CBS do that? They wouldn't.

^this

What CBS does or doesn't do in this case is irrelevant.

Not true.
If CBS does not want to sell, it won't happen.

(11-10-2018 11:26 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 10:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 09:13 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 12:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-...pens-next/

This article seems to suggest that it might be possible for another suitor to buy out the remaining years of the CBS contract and move us forward soon.

I have heard conservative estimates that our T1 revenue could NET the schools another 7 million a year, and this article suggests more liberal numbers may well be possible. Could we see as much as 11 million more per school or more if the CCG is part of the package as well? Quite possibly!

And if such a move were to be in the offing might it affect the potential for another addition or two? I would have to think so.

Thoughts?

Why would CBS do that? They wouldn't.

^this

What CBS does or doesn't do in this case is irrelevant.

Not true.
If CBS does not want to sell, it won't happen.

It depends upon what's in the present contract.

(11-10-2018 11:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It depends upon what's in the present contract.

It's always POSSIBLE there's some mystery provision in the contract, but this is a drum Clay Travis has been banging since the SEC expanded with Texas A&M in the first place. There's nothing to indicate that there's an early-out clause.

Travis has never argued that there is an early out clause, just the universal that if both parties to a contract agree to change it, they can change it.

This was a more credible trial balloon from Travis when the SEC network was preparing to launch, and Travis suggested that ESPN and the SEC pay whatever it took to get the CBS to give the games back, and put (at least some of) those games on the fledgling SEC network.

(11-10-2018 01:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 11:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It depends upon what's in the present contract.

It's always POSSIBLE there's some mystery provision in the contract, but this is a drum Clay Travis has been banging since the SEC expanded with Texas A&M in the first place. There's nothing to indicate that there's an early-out clause.

Travis has never argued that there is an early out clause, just the universal that if both parties to a contract agree to change it, they can change it.

This was a more credible trial balloon from Travis when the SEC network was preparing to launch, and Travis suggested that ESPN and the SEC pay whatever it took to get the CBS to give the games back, and put (at least some of) those games on the fledgling SEC network.

Whether we get it next year or in 2023 doesn't really change the trajectory. We have an escalation that accounts for 2 million a year. When it is renewed we will see an increase of between 7-11 million a year for just the T1 rights. The principle at work is no different from the ACC buying back rights from Raycom.

But either way (and I don't care for Travis and have been on record here about him since A&M joined) it has been the only article out since about May that raised any issues worth discussing on a forum that has only contained "What if this happened" threads for months.

That said, this trial balloon was not even floated when the SEC expanded last time JohnBragg. Travis was too busy selling N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC for his trial balloon. When the SECN was announced he had his printing money article which many here, including me rejected, because I had heard the estimations of worth from conference folks. It played out pretty much as the conference folks said it would, which is far more successful than its counterparts, but hardly what Clay touted. There has not been any talk about CBS since the realignment when they refused to offer pro rata for the additions. But then their inventory didn't increase. They still purchased the same number of games as they did prior to the expansion. The issue now has more to do with tension between CBS and the SEC regarding announcers questioning the officiating crews on air when the conference officiating office may be called at anytime for an explanation, and for trying sew controversy where there is none.

That more than the contract itself is the impetus behind the present discontent. But to say that the new contract will move the SEC to the 59-63 million range in payouts with the renewal isn't far fetched. It's exactly the range we will be in by 2023.

(11-10-2018 02:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 01:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 11:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It depends upon what's in the present contract.

It's always POSSIBLE there's some mystery provision in the contract, but this is a drum Clay Travis has been banging since the SEC expanded with Texas A&M in the first place. There's nothing to indicate that there's an early-out clause.

Travis has never argued that there is an early out clause, just the universal that if both parties to a contract agree to change it, they can change it.

This was a more credible trial balloon from Travis when the SEC network was preparing to launch, and Travis suggested that ESPN and the SEC pay whatever it took to get the CBS to give the games back, and put (at least some of) those games on the fledgling SEC network.

Whether we get it next year or in 2023 doesn't really change the trajectory. We have an escalation that accounts for 2 million a year. When it is renewed we will see an increase of between 7-11 million a year for just the T1 rights. The principle at work is no different from the ACC buying back rights from Raycom.

But either way (and I don't care for Travis and have been on record here about him since A&M joined) it has been the only article out since about May that raised any issues worth discussing on a forum that has only contained "What if this happened" threads for months.

That said, this trial balloon was not even floated when the SEC expanded last time JohnBragg. Travis was too busy selling N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC for his trial balloon. When the SECN was announced he had his printing money article which many here, including me rejected, because I had heard the estimations of worth from conference folks. It played out pretty much as the conference folks said it would, which is far more successful than its counterparts, but hardly what Clay touted. There has not been any talk about CBS since the realignment when they refused to offer pro rata for the additions. But then their inventory didn't increase. They still purchased the same number of games as they did prior to the expansion. The issue now has more to do with tension between CBS and the SEC regarding announcers questioning the officiating crews on air when the conference officiating office may be called at anytime for an explanation, and for trying sew controversy where there is none.

That more than the contract itself is the impetus behind the present discontent. But to say that the new contract will move the SEC to the 59-63 million range in payouts with the renewal isn't far fetched. It's exactly the range we will be in by 2023.

Travis was definitely banging this drum in 2014.
OKTC column from 2014

I'm a Clay Travis fan, but I've never thought this was anything more than a Clay Travis trial balloon--it's hard to see how CBS selling the package to another network works for both the other network and for CBS. Butthurt from the A&M/Missouri expansion won't matter, CBS talking heads criticizing SEC refs won't matter. If CBS offers the most money for the package, they'll keep the package.

(11-10-2018 03:40 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 02:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 01:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 11:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It depends upon what's in the present contract.

It's always POSSIBLE there's some mystery provision in the contract, but this is a drum Clay Travis has been banging since the SEC expanded with Texas A&M in the first place. There's nothing to indicate that there's an early-out clause.

Travis has never argued that there is an early out clause, just the universal that if both parties to a contract agree to change it, they can change it.

This was a more credible trial balloon from Travis when the SEC network was preparing to launch, and Travis suggested that ESPN and the SEC pay whatever it took to get the CBS to give the games back, and put (at least some of) those games on the fledgling SEC network.

Whether we get it next year or in 2023 doesn't really change the trajectory. We have an escalation that accounts for 2 million a year. When it is renewed we will see an increase of between 7-11 million a year for just the T1 rights. The principle at work is no different from the ACC buying back rights from Raycom.

But either way (and I don't care for Travis and have been on record here about him since A&M joined) it has been the only article out since about May that raised any issues worth discussing on a forum that has only contained "What if this happened" threads for months.

That said, this trial balloon was not even floated when the SEC expanded last time JohnBragg. Travis was too busy selling N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC for his trial balloon. When the SECN was announced he had his printing money article which many here, including me rejected, because I had heard the estimations of worth from conference folks. It played out pretty much as the conference folks said it would, which is far more successful than its counterparts, but hardly what Clay touted. There has not been any talk about CBS since the realignment when they refused to offer pro rata for the additions. But then their inventory didn't increase. They still purchased the same number of games as they did prior to the expansion. The issue now has more to do with tension between CBS and the SEC regarding announcers questioning the officiating crews on air when the conference officiating office may be called at anytime for an explanation, and for trying sew controversy where there is none.

That more than the contract itself is the impetus behind the present discontent. But to say that the new contract will move the SEC to the 59-63 million range in payouts with the renewal isn't far fetched. It's exactly the range we will be in by 2023.

Travis was definitely banging this drum in 2014.
OKTC column from 2014

I'm a Clay Travis fan, but I've never thought this was anything more than a Clay Travis trial balloon--it's hard to see how CBS selling the package to another network works for both the other network and for CBS. Butthurt from the A&M/Missouri expansion won't matter, CBS talking heads criticizing SEC refs won't matter. If CBS offers the most money for the package, they'll keep the package.

I can't stand Clay. He's never been right about any of his predictions, and I mean Zero! He had some connections that led to favors from some within the SEC office when he was just blogging. They used him to float some trial balloons about possible expansion candidates around 2010-1. That got him some buzz. He was able to parlay that into his FOX association. Kudos to him for that. When FOX hired him he low rated the conference to try to sell his schtick to Big 12 fans. It didn't win him any following down here.

I missed that article of his that you cite probably because I never followed his weekly offerings unless they related to something I was interested in, but there is no way in hell that the SEC is placing it's prime game on FS1 anymore than they would on ESPN or ESPN2. So that part of his article is pure Clay. But I do know that the conference has a major preference for the 2:30 Central prime time nationwide slot. CBS could very well outbid everyone next time around, but there's not much to indicate that at this time. It's highly possible that the SEC is permitting these kinds of angles to be aired in an effort to raise the stakes before the next bids go out. That's just good business. But, I wouldn't rule out the FOX or ABC possibilities here either. My preference would be for FOX not wanting Disney to control all of the rights, but FOX desperately needs a presence in the Southeast with more than the occasional game between the B12 and SEC. I strongly suspect that they will be a viable bidder next time.

But, having known some of the SEC leadership, saying that they haven't been pleased with the relationship of late with CBS is certainly not a stretch. Folks who've been around the conference office for a while know the memory for slights are long and deep here. While they won't stand in the way of a profitable deal, they can and have made the difference between competitive offers in the past. CBS hasn't done itself any favors and that may be the first thing Travis is correct about.

Then there is the non SEC angle. Should the T1 rights of the SEC fall into the hands of either FOX or ESPN then all of the T1 & T2 rights of the P5 would be solidly in the hands of those two networks, save Notre Dame's deal with NBC, and that could be subject to leverage should there be consolidation into a P4. I would have to think that with the prospect of FAANG involvement with the contract expirations between 2023-5 that consolidation worked out between ESPN and FOX would provide a wonderful opportunity to extend existing contract before they come open.

ESPN has all of the ACC & SEC T3 rights sewn up in the conference networks. FOX owns 51% of the BTN and the conference retains the rest. The Big 12's T3 have the 3 major properties already in house with ESPN holding the LHN and Kansas's T3 while FOX owns those of Oklahoma. The PAC's T3 is self owned, but open to bids next time around. They need carriage and they need more revenue.

So the conditions are there to encourage more FOX / ESPN cooperation and having CBS out of the way with regards to the SEC rights would be a huge move toward the kind of control that could assist their ability to move to timeline a bit farther out on the FAANG companies entrance into the college sports market in any kind of massive or substantial way.

The question is would CBS sell?

Depends on how much it is worth to a network like FOX...

If CBS thinks they're going to lose the SEC rights anyway, and I think they will, then it makes sense to strike a deal that could be beneficial in other ways. Similar to why a pro sports team trades a player before allowing him to leave in free agency.

Would it therefore be as simple as another network buying out the contract? Probably not considering CBS is likely making a huge profit on an undervalued product, but if they're going to lose it then perhaps it would be worth their while to trade favors/assets and not just cash.

(11-10-2018 10:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The question is would CBS sell?

Depends on how much it is worth to a network like FOX...

If CBS thinks they're going to lose the SEC rights anyway, and I think they will, then it makes sense to strike a deal that could be beneficial in other ways. Similar to why a pro sports team trades a player before allowing him to leave in free agency.

Would it therefore be as simple as another network buying out the contract? Probably not considering CBS is likely making a huge profit on an undervalued product, but if they're going to lose it then perhaps it would be worth their while to trade favors/assets and not just cash.

There are always angles to be played. And I don't think it will matter much beyond 2021 which is just 3 seasons away.

Sure if someone wants it bad enough that CBS thinks it is getting a windfall sure they might sell.
But remember CBS was thought to have made a mistake when they wanted to telecast SEC coast-to-coast and there were dire predictions that affiliates across the country outside of the south would show siding infomercials and old movies rather than a bunch of southern teams no one outside the south cared about.
They paid more for the prime afternoon slot than anyone else offered AND cleared it nationwide.

When ESPN wanted to run the SEC Network they insisted on being able to run games head-to-head vs CBS and CBS got more primetime out of the deal.

Fox is the only network that can give SEC the prime afternoon slot cleared nationwide. So either Fox throws mega bucks or SEC has to share the window.