From an Overall Perspective...

It looks like we will have a very exciting end to the regular season this year as parity seems to have taken hold across the country. We did get two conference AQ’s clinched (MVC and Patriot), but many of the other conferences look like they will end up going down to the final week. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Southland – where most of the teams in the conference are still within one game of the AQ.

Comparing this year to last year, in 2017, there were 31 teams who were at 6 wins at this point in the season. This year, it is only 23 teams – with 2 of those being conference champions.

From a JMU Perspective...

Well….that sucked. The Dukes came up to UNH and got thoroughly embarrassed. I certainly did not expect JMU to roll over UNH – even with the Wildcats having a losing record. But to have the game basically be over within the first 5 minutes, that was not expected. UNH just beat us on every aspect of the game: Offense, Defense, Special Teams, and just general Discipline.

Oh...and of course I certainly wouldn't want anything really bad to happen to anyone, but as I tried to watch some of my former students marching in UNH band during halftime, four older adult UNH fans decided to stand in front of me and have a conversation with their backs to the band and blocking my view. I hope those people each get a really bad cold.

Anyway, all we can do is look to next week. JMU will be hosting URI – which I doubt the players will take lightly after this week. Hopefully, whoever our QB is will have more than one second before they have to start scrambling. We are still in good position for a playoff spot, but any hope of a high (or maybe even any) Seed is gone. We are lucky that other highly-ranked teams are also losing, so I cannot say that we will be playing Thanksgiving weekend, but the team has some work to do if they want to compete this year.

By the Numbers (107 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/21 – 95
10/28 – 77
11/4 – 60

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/21 – 78
10/28 – 67
11/4 – 54

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/21 – 6
10/28 – 16
11/4 – 21

Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky –
Big South –
CAA –
MVC – NDSU
NEC –
OVC –
Patriot – Colgate
Pioneer –
SoCon –
Southland –

CAA (8 Teams Alive)
Delaware – 7 wins
JMU – 6 wins
Towson – 6 wins
Stony Brook – 6 wins
Maine – 6 wins
Elon – 6 wins
URI (1)
Villanova (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
UC Davis – 8 wins
Weber State – 7 wins
EWU – 6 wins
Idaho State (1)
Montana State (1) – cannot win AQ
Montana (1) – cannot win AQ

Big South (3 Teams Alive)
Monmouth – 7 wins
Kennesaw State – 7 wins
Gardner-Webb

Independents (1 Team Alive – No AQ)
North Dakota (1)

MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 7 wins
FAMU (1)
Bethune-Cookman (0)
Howard (0)

MVC (6 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 9 wins – Clinched AQ
SDSU – 6 wins
No. Iowa (1)
W. Illinois (1)
Illinois State (0)
Indiana State (0)

NEC (5 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart – 6 wins
Duquesne (1)
Bryant (0) – cannot win AQ
CCSU (0)
StFU

OVC (5 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 7 wins
SE Missouri State – 7 wins
EKU (1)
Murray State (0)
Austin Peay (0) – cannot win AQ

Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Colgate – 8 wins – Clinched AQ
Georgetown (0)

Pioneer League (5 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 6 wins
Marist (1)
Stetson (1)
Drake (0)
Dayton (0) – cannot win AQ

SoCon (6 Teams Alive)
ETSU – 7 wins
Wofford – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Mercer (0) – cannot win AQ
Furman (0)
Samford (0)

Southland (8 Teams Alive)
McNeese State – 6 wins
Nichols State – 6 wins
Central Ark. (1)
Sam Houston State (1)
Abilene Christian (0)
Lamar (0)
Incarnate Word (0)
SE Louisiana

Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Villanova
Bethune-Cookman
Howard
Illinois State
Indiana State
Bryant
CCSU
Murray State
Austin Peay
Georgetown
Drake
Dayton
Mercer
Furman
Samford
Incarnate Word
Abilene Christian
Lamar

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this past week)
North Alabama (transitioning to I-AA until 2022)
Morgan State (NCAA punishment for “lack of institutional control”)
UNH
Albany
W&M
Richmond
Northern Arizona
Portland State
Cal Poly
Northern Colorado
Idaho
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Campbell
Charleston Southern
Presbyterian
Hampton
SC State
Savannah State
Delaware State
NC Central
Norfolk State
SIU
Missouri State
South Dakota
Youngstown State
Wagner
Robert Morris
Tenn.-Martin
EIU
Tenn. Tech
Tenn. State
Lafayette
Fordham
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Lehigh
Morehead State
Butler
Valparaiso
Davidson
Jacksonville
VMI
Western Carolina
Citadel
Stephen F. Austin
Houston Baptist
NW State

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
NDSU
Princeton
Colgate

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
None

Conference Analysis

CAA – The CAA should be well-represented in the playoffs this year. Six teams have now reached the 6-win threshold to make themselves eligible for an At-Large with URI still sitting at 5 wins. Obviously, not all of those teams will make it, but with the low win totals in the other “power” conferences, I think it is very likely that 5 CAA teams will get in. The fact that no one is running away with the conference and with so many teams still in play, means the pressure is going to be constant for all of the remaining teams to win. URI will have to win-out and they play a (hopefully) angry JMU and a much-improved UNH. They have their work cut out for them. JMU, Maine, Stony Brook, Elon, Towson all need to win at least one more win – which will get each of them to 7 wins overall. Even Delaware, who has 7 wins now, will really want to win at least one more. Two losses by them will likely allow a number of teams to pass them in the standings and one of those losses would be to a bad Villanova team in the final week. They needed a last-minute TD to beat last-place Albany this past weekend, so nothing is assured. As for the AQ race, Delaware and Maine are both tied for first place. They did not play each other this year, so if they both win-out and finish tied, Maine will get the AQ since they beat URI and Delaware did not. (Delaware did not play the team Maine lost to – W&M – so the Tribe is not a common opponent and is not factored in.) Maine and Delaware each have one good opponent and one bad opponent, so, again, nothing is set in stone.

Big Sky – Going into this past weekend, three teams (NAU, Cal Poly, and Portland State) needed to win-out in order to make it to 6 wins. All three of those teams lost. In addition, with UC Davis winning again, the line to be in contention for the AQ moved up again. The end result is that out of the 10 teams alive coming into the weekend, four were eliminated from playoff contention. The big game this coming weekend is UC Davis at EWU. UC Davis is at 6-0 in the Big Sky with EWU (along with Weber State and Idaho State) sitting at 5-1. If UC Davis wins, then they will likely just need a win in the final week against last place Sacramento State to claim the AQ. If EWU wins, then the final week could be very exciting if you have a situation where all four teams come in with a 6-1 record. UC Davis will have their easy win, EWU will have a middle-of-the-road game against Portland State, and Weber State and Idaho State will face each other. Those four teams do not all play each other, so it could become very tricky. Outside of the AQ race are Montana and Montana State – both sitting at 5 overall wins and hoping to be on the playoff bubble. They will play each other in the final week, so really only the winner of that game will be in the conversation for an At-Large. And even then, one of the top four teams might need to lose twice in order for the Montana teams to have a shot.

Big South – We’re down to only three teams left alive in the Big South – Kennesaw State, Monmouth, and Gardner-Webb. Next week, Kennesaw and Monmouth will face each other. If Kennesaw wins, they get the AQ. If Monmouth wins, Gardner-Webb gets pulled into the conversation. Monmouth and Gardner-Webb play in the final week, so it could be possible for all three teams to finish with a 4-1 conference record if Monmouth beats Kennesaw and Gardner-Webb wins-out. Next week, if necessary, I’ll take a look at the Big South tiebreaker – which tends to be weird/hard-to-find. Anyway, Kennesaw is likely in the playoffs no matter what happens, Monmouth will likely need at least one more win to be considered for an At-Large, and Gardner-Webb must get the AQ to stay alive.

Independents – North Dakota is the only one here to pay attention to, bu they have now lost 2 games in a row – severely hurting their playoff chances. They now have to win their final 2 games to stay in the At-Large conversation. Both games (Portland State and NAU) are winnable, but just one loss will almost certainly wipe them out.

MEAC – FAMU was upset this week, so NC A&T (our only focus in regards to the playoffs) has a slight opening in regards to catching them for first place. At the same time, however, A&T’s argument for a playoff spot takes a greater hit as both FAMU and Morgan State – they two teams they’ve lost to, both lost this week. I really can’t see a way for A&T (or any MEAC team) to have a strong enough resume to get an At-Large, though.

MVC – NDSU has now clinched the AQ – becoming the first team on our list to do so. (They have already played and beaten all of the teams who could possibly catch them in the conference, so they would win any tie-breaker.) They are now working to ensure they get the #1 Seed – which they probably will get – and to stay healthy. Our main attention then turns to who could get an At-Large. Five teams are still vying for one, but some are more comfortable than others. Illinois State and Indiana State both need to win out just to reach 6 wins...and they play each other this coming weekend. If Indiana State wins out, they might be able to get one of the last spots, but they would likely need a team ahead of them to lose so they can finish in at least 4th place. Illinois State has now lost three in a row and are probably out regardless. Even if they win-out, they would finish with only a 4-4 conference record – which usually spells doom for a team in the eyes of the Committee. The other three teams (Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, and SDSU) get to play against weaker teams to end the season, so they all have a lot of control about whether they will play after the regular season is over. Any team that goes 2-0 in that group should be into the playoffs. Any team that goes 1-1 will be on the bubble. Any team that goes 0-2 will be out. Again, those three teams will be favored to win each of their remaining games, but there are very few gimmes here.

NEC – The AQ is everything in the NEC since no one has a resume deserving of an At-Large. This coming weekend can settle it. If Sacred Heart beat Duquesne this weekend, Sacred Heart gets the AQ. If Duquesne wins, we’ll have to pay attention to the final week when Sacred Heart goes against StFU and Duquesne plays CCSU. If things fall a certain way, we could even get a 4-way tie at the end of the season – which would make things fun. But let’s see what happens next weekend first...

OVC – A weird week in the OVC to make thing a little more interesting. Two of the top teams were playing the two bottom teams. Jacksonville State was able to survive their game against UT-Martin by hitting a last-minute TD. Murray State, however, was not so lucky – they lost to previously winless Tennessee Tech. That loss basically knocks Murray State out. They can only get to 6 wins by winning-out and they now have two awful losses (Tennessee Tech and SIU). They have no choice but to somehow try to win the AQ, but that would need to involve setting up a multi-way tie at the top. They’ll get their first shot next week against SE Missouri State. Murray State must win. Elsewhere, it looks like Jacksonville State and SE Missouri State will make the playoffs. One of those two will likely win the AQ (SE Missouri has beaten Jacksonville State, so they will get it with 2 more wins). One more win by either of those two teams should secure at least an At-Large. As for EKU, if they win-out, they will finish with 7 wins to put themselves on the bubble. Their four losses would be to two I-A teams (Marshall and Bowling Green) and to Jacksonville State and Murray State. Their one good win would be to SE Missouri – which will be even more impressive is SE Missouri gets the AQ. A lot will depend on what else happens around the rest of I-AA.

Patriot – Colgate shuts out yet another opponent to clinch the AQ. They are now allowing just 2.6 points per game. To put this in perspective, in the last 6 years, no team has finished at even twice that amount (and you have to go to D3 where low scores are more frequent). JMU finished first in D1 last year at 11.1 ppg. If it wasn’t for the first game of the season, when Colgate gave up 17 of their 23 points to Holy Cross, they would be challenging the all-time records (from the 1930’s). They have a game this week against Lehigh – which could very easily be another shutout. Then they go against Army. If they can shutdown Army, then I think even the major football world will take notice. Anyway, I think Colgate is looking at a top Seed and will be playing at home for most of the playoffs. That is not good news for the east coast conferences – there are many teams/conferences that could be sent there (including JMU).

Pioneer – San Diego, Marist, and Stetson all have won at least four games in a row, so the conference AQ race continues. San Diego is in first and has already beaten Stetson, so their game in the final week against Marist could be for the AQ. Stetson has that loss to San Diego, but they have beaten Marist, so a three-way tie is possible with all three teams finishing with only losses to each other.

SoCon – Wofford and Chatty both came into last weekend with 6 overall wins and they both lost. For Chatty, they’re in big trouble. Right now, they have no good wins. They play Mercer next week (which would not be an impressive win) and then finish with I-A South Carolina (which obviously would be an impressive win). I think their resume is too weak and there are too many teams ahead of them. Wofford is in better shape. Their final two opponents are bad, so they should get to 8 wins and they do have a few good wins (ETSU and Chatty). ETSU is now in sole possession of first place. They do have 7 wins, but their Bye is next weekend – they only have one game left. That game in the final week against Samford will almost certainly be for the AQ. Samford needs to win their final two games to make it to 6 wins, but if they do that, they would be looking at the AQ since they would have beaten Furman, Wofford, and ETSU. If they lose either of their final two games, though, they’re out. Furman would be interesting if they win-out. They would finish with only 6 wins, but they had one game cancelled due to Hurricane Florence and they would have won 6 of their final 7 games (including over Wofford and Chatty). Their losses would be to Clemson, Elon (at the beginning of the year), Samford, and ETSU, so none of them would be bad. Would the Committee factor in the fact that they had one game cancelled that was obviously out of their control?

Southland – How weird is the Southland this year? With just two weeks left, 8 of the 11 teams are within one game of first place! Everytime someone looks like they are about to pull away in this conference, they get pulled right back into the pack. To be honest, there are so many scenarios with this conference in terms of who can make it to 6 wins and who could win the AQ, that I am not even going to make any predictions for them this week. I’m just looking forward to seeing the results next week – in which every game is important.

Awesome analysis again! Thanks!

If Nova wins against W&M they'll be going for 6-5 against UD. I wouldn't call that a 'bad loss' for UD if that happens. Losing the last two might be enough to damage UD's chances but I think 5-3 in the CAA with 7 wins gets them in. Right now Towson, Elon and us are the most at risk for missing the playoffs with 2 more loses down the stretch.

For those of you who follow the entire FCS landscape more than the rest of us, is there anyone that you would take other than NDSU (and with a bit of bias, JMU) to win the national title?

I see that SDSU played NDSU close, and that is a rivalry game, but I would think NDSU beats them again if they play. Kennesaw and Weber and E Wash don’t sound like they would beat NDSU or even come close. Before a few weeks ago, I think we would have been favored against all 3 of them.

Obviously need to win the next 2 to get a chance for a seed and a bye and a home game in the round of 16. That is the first goal, but we would also want to get to at least the 7 seed. If we get the 8th seed, then we are in Fargo in the quarterfinals. Would rather play NDSU in Frisco obviously. Still think we can beat anybody else in FCS if we limit mistakes.

We are ranked 9th and 10th in the polls currently.

Go Dukes!!!!

(11-06-2018 07:59 AM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  For those of you who follow the entire FCS landscape more than the rest of us, is there anyone that you would take other than NDSU (and with a bit of bias, JMU) to win the national title?

I see that SDSU played NDSU close, and that is a rivalry game, but I would think NDSU beats them again if they play. Kennesaw and Weber and E Wash don’t sound like they would beat NDSU or even come close. Before a few weeks ago, I think we would have been favored against all 3 of them.

Obviously need to win the next 2 to get a chance for a seed and a bye and a home game in the round of 16. That is the first goal, but we would also want to get to at least the 7 seed. If we get the 8th seed, then we are in Fargo in the quarterfinals. Would rather play NDSU in Frisco obviously. Still think we can beat anybody else in FCS if we limit mistakes.

We are ranked 9th and 10th in the polls currently.

Go Dukes!!!!

IMO for the last two years there were two elite teams in the FCS, NDSU and the Dukes. I think this year there is only one elite team and that is NDSU. I think the Dukes have dropped down a bit this year offensively but I also believe that the Dukes will be back as an elite team next year or the year after. We lost some key athletes last year and it will take a year or two to get back where we should be with the high quality of new recruits we have coming in.

Sagarin would have NDSU (neutral field):
-7 vs SDSU (#2 FCS)
-11 vs JMU (#3 FCS)

Massey would have NDSU (neutral field):
-12 vs Princeton (#2 FCS) ... 79% chance of winning
-11 vs SDSU (#3 FCS) ... 79% chance of winning
-16 vs JMU (#7 FCS) ... 87% chance of winning

(11-06-2018 07:59 AM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  For those of you who follow the entire FCS landscape more than the rest of us, is there anyone that you would take other than NDSU (and with a bit of bias, JMU) to win the national title?

I see that SDSU played NDSU close, and that is a rivalry game, but I would think NDSU beats them again if they play. Kennesaw and Weber and E Wash don’t sound like they would beat NDSU or even come close. Before a few weeks ago, I think we would have been favored against all 3 of them.

Obviously need to win the next 2 to get a chance for a seed and a bye and a home game in the round of 16. That is the first goal, but we would also want to get to at least the 7 seed. If we get the 8th seed, then we are in Fargo in the quarterfinals. Would rather play NDSU in Frisco obviously. Still think we can beat anybody else in FCS if we limit mistakes.

We are ranked 9th and 10th in the polls currently.

Go Dukes!!!!

I think Weber has the defense to make it interesting. SDSU is to me the most overrated team in the country because they are able to play NDSU tough every time in their rivalry game. I'm interested to see how Colgate looks against Army in a couple of weeks. If they shut them down then I would be intrigued to see them perform against NDSU. Hard to say if they are a paper tiger or not coming out of the Patriot.

(11-06-2018 10:56 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(11-06-2018 07:59 AM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  For those of you who follow the entire FCS landscape more than the rest of us, is there anyone that you would take other than NDSU (and with a bit of bias, JMU) to win the national title?

I see that SDSU played NDSU close, and that is a rivalry game, but I would think NDSU beats them again if they play. Kennesaw and Weber and E Wash don’t sound like they would beat NDSU or even come close. Before a few weeks ago, I think we would have been favored against all 3 of them.

Obviously need to win the next 2 to get a chance for a seed and a bye and a home game in the round of 16. That is the first goal, but we would also want to get to at least the 7 seed. If we get the 8th seed, then we are in Fargo in the quarterfinals. Would rather play NDSU in Frisco obviously. Still think we can beat anybody else in FCS if we limit mistakes.

We are ranked 9th and 10th in the polls currently.

Go Dukes!!!!

I think Weber has the defense to make it interesting. SDSU is to me the most overrated team in the country because they are able to play NDSU tough every time in their rivalry game. I'm interested to see how Colgate looks against Army in a couple of weeks. If they shut them down then I would be intrigued to see them perform against NDSU. Hard to say if they are a paper tiger or not coming out of the Patriot.

Some metrics for the things you listed.
~Weber has the #7 defense (massey), so good eye JMaddy. NDSU is #1 defense, JMU 4, Del 8, Stony Brook 10, Vnova 12, Elon 15, NH 16.
~SDSU (Bunnies) is the #4 FCS team (massey) with the #1 offense and #19 Defense and the #2 overall FCS (sagarin).
~Colgate is the #7 FCS team (massey) with the #2 defense and #54 offense and #10 FCS team (sagarin).
~Massey thinks Army are about -17 hosting Colgate and massey thinks the most likely outcome is Colgate scores three points. (91% chance Army wins). Sagarin thinks Army -19.
~NDSU looks very good as the #1 FCS (sagarin) and #1 FCS (massey) with the #1 defense and #2 offense and they are dominating despite the #5 SOS.

Reading this made me chuckle and reminded me how F'd up college FB can be at times... http://southland.sidearmsports.com/news/...ation.aspx

"Southland Conference Clarifies Football Champion Determination"

(11-06-2018 10:56 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(11-06-2018 07:59 AM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  For those of you who follow the entire FCS landscape more than the rest of us, is there anyone that you would take other than NDSU (and with a bit of bias, JMU) to win the national title?

I see that SDSU played NDSU close, and that is a rivalry game, but I would think NDSU beats them again if they play. Kennesaw and Weber and E Wash don’t sound like they would beat NDSU or even come close. Before a few weeks ago, I think we would have been favored against all 3 of them.

Obviously need to win the next 2 to get a chance for a seed and a bye and a home game in the round of 16. That is the first goal, but we would also want to get to at least the 7 seed. If we get the 8th seed, then we are in Fargo in the quarterfinals. Would rather play NDSU in Frisco obviously. Still think we can beat anybody else in FCS if we limit mistakes.

We are ranked 9th and 10th in the polls currently.

Go Dukes!!!!

I think Weber has the defense to make it interesting. SDSU is to me the most overrated team in the country because they are able to play NDSU tough every time in their rivalry game. I'm interested to see how Colgate looks against Army in a couple of weeks. If they shut them down then I would be intrigued to see them perform against NDSU. Hard to say if they are a paper tiger or not coming out of the Patriot.

Colgate is putting up amazing defensive numbers against teams that are averaging under 20ppg. They're going to be exposed in the playoffs.

Chattanooga (6-4) lost to Mercer today. That likely knocks them out. Final game next week is at South Carolina. SoCon limited to 2 teams. Might open a door for someone else.

(11-09-2018 11:12 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Reading this made me chuckle and reminded me how F'd up college FB can be at times... http://southland.sidearmsports.com/news/...ation.aspx

"Southland Conference Clarifies Football Champion Determination"

The link went to a page that requires a log in that looks like it's for employees of the Southland. Given the title, I found it at https://southland.org/news/2018/11/6/adm...ation.aspx

The key is for JMU with a win on Saturday to get to the 6 or 7 seed so that the Dukes don't have to play North Dakota State in the quarters or semis. I think the Dukes can get there- they are still relatively highly rated by the experts and computers. A road win vs. another playoff team will only help propel them in the final seeding.

Probably an extra Southland team. After Incarnate Word, five teams there with 6 wins.

(11-12-2018 07:47 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  Probably an extra Southland team. After Incarnate Word, five teams there with 6 wins.

I don't know about everyone else, but I think it sucks to be playing in a division where a juggernaut has a name like Incarnate Word. I feel like we are playing in D IV.

(11-12-2018 07:47 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  Probably an extra Southland team. After Incarnate Word, five teams there with 6 wins.

The resumes there are very weak. Some of those wins come against non D1 teams, and other SLC teams. If you only end up with 6 D1 wins, no out of conference wins, does that really earn a bid?

As much as people want to mock some bowl games, the playoffs are really watered down if we start taking 2 and 3 SLC teams every year. After looking at details, I agree with nobowls.com - SLC should be a 1 bid conference this year. Even a 6-5 MVFC team is better, and the more I think about it, CAA may deserve 6 slots. A 6-4 CAA team >>> 6-4 SLC.

I agree with this but think diversity will prevail over quality... we'll see. Certainly the non-D1 wins will hurt their resumes the most.

(11-12-2018 08:42 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  I agree with this but think diversity will prevail over quality... we'll see. Certainly the non-D1 wins will hurt their resumes the most.

Non D1 games don’t “count” to the committee. In the past the standard has generally been 7 D1 wins, only the MVFC has seen one or two exceptions to that.

This hurts Elon if they lose too, but it can be argued they couldn’t control the weather and shouldn’t be penalized for that. SLC has no excuses.

(11-12-2018 08:28 AM)Purple Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 07:47 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  Probably an extra Southland team. After Incarnate Word, five teams there with 6 wins.

I don't know about everyone else, but I think it sucks to be playing in a division where a juggernaut has a name like Incarnate Word. I feel like we are playing in D IV.

I agree the name is unusual as a football playing school, however, that said if you know San Antonio (or have visited recently) IWU has been making large investments in facilities. It’s every bit the equal to Soft Houston as a campus, if not better. I’m sure Notre Dame sounded funny to the ear at one time too.

Saw this on AGS and thought you would like to see it.

If Maine loses, the JMU v TOW winner will be tied with them no matter what.

If Albany, Elon, and Villanova Win:
James Madison v Maine:

If W&M OR URI Win: JMU wins AQ
If RICH AND UNH Win: MAINE wins AQ


Maine v Towson: Maine wins AQ

If Elon, Stony Brook, and Villanova win:
James Madison v Maine v Stony Brook:

Best common opponent: Towson (Stony Brook eliminated)
See: JMU v Maine


Maine v Stony Brook v Towson:

Record among tied teams: Maine 1-0; Towson 1-1; Stony Brook 0-1 (I think they go by this, and Maine gets AQ, but since Maine and Stony Brook didn’t play it could be skipped possibly).
If they skip, no common opponent of all 3 with different result, would go to Sagarin ELO_CHESS


If Albany, Delaware, and Elon win:
Delaware v James Madison v Maine:

Best common opponent: Elon (Delaware wins AQ)


Delaware v Maine v Towson:

Record among tied teams: Delaware 1-0; Maine 1-0; Towson 0-2 (Towson eliminated)
Best common opponent: Elon (Delaware wins AQ)


If Delaware, Elon, and Stony Brook win:
Delaware v James Madison v Maine v Stony Brook

Record among tied teams: Delaware 0-1; James Madison 1-0; Maine 0-0; Stony Brook 1-1 (Delaware eliminated? – if so, see JMU v Maine v SBU; proceeding as if not since Maine is 0-0)
Best common opponent (all 4): Towson (Stony Brook Eliminated)
Best common opponent (UD, JMU, UM): Elon (Delaware wins AQ)


Delaware v Maine v Stony Brook v Towson

Record among tied teams: Delaware 1-1; Maine 1-0; Stony Brook 1-1; Towson 1-2 (Could have Maine win AQ, Towson eliminated, or skipped since Maine didn’t play either UD or SBU)
If skipped: Sagarin ELO_CHESS
If Towson eliminated: Best common opponent (UD, UM, SBU): Towson (Stony Brook eliminated)
Best common opponent (UD, UM): Elon (Delaware wins AQ)

Make sure you root for Elon, WM/ URI!
Roll Tribe!