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Hot Stove 2018/19
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #381
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-10-2019 10:39 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:36 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-09-2019 11:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Grandal signs 1 year deal with the Brewers.....

What a huge mistake he made not taking the QO from the Dodgers.

Why was it a huge mistake?

well for one he now can still be offered the QO and have the draft compensation tied with him. Meanwhile Ryu next year can't.

Indeed I forgot about that
01-10-2019 11:53 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #382
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-10-2019 11:53 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:39 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:36 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-09-2019 11:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Grandal signs 1 year deal with the Brewers.....

What a huge mistake he made not taking the QO from the Dodgers.

Why was it a huge mistake?

well for one he now can still be offered the QO and have the draft compensation tied with him. Meanwhile Ryu next year can't.

Indeed I forgot about that

It's obviously not a "huge mistake." He hasn't lost any money or opportunity (yet). This was a judgement call based on the current circumstances and he's betting on himself. The state of MLB catching is pretty shaky right now, and as far as I can tell the reason Grandal wasn't getting gatorade showers of cash is because he **** the bed in the playoffs. If he has a solid 2019 he'll have offers out his ass and the draft pick loss may have little bearing. We'll have the benefit of hindsight next year to see which of these decisions, if any, was a mistake. But if he has a lousy 2019 the mistake we'll point to was turning down the Mets' $60MM offer.
01-10-2019 12:14 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #383
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-10-2019 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 11:53 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:39 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:36 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-09-2019 11:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Grandal signs 1 year deal with the Brewers.....

What a huge mistake he made not taking the QO from the Dodgers.

Why was it a huge mistake?

well for one he now can still be offered the QO and have the draft compensation tied with him. Meanwhile Ryu next year can't.

Indeed I forgot about that

It's obviously not a "huge mistake." He hasn't lost any money or opportunity (yet). This was a judgement call based on the current circumstances and he's betting on himself. The state of MLB catching is pretty shaky right now, and as far as I can tell the reason Grandal wasn't getting gatorade showers of cash is because he **** the bed in the playoffs. If he has a solid 2019 he'll have offers out his ass and the draft pick loss may have little bearing. We'll have the benefit of hindsight next year to see which of these decisions, if any, was a mistake. But if he has a lousy 2019 the mistake we'll point to was turning down the Mets' $60MM offer.

If he has a great '19 then still the draft pick compensation will limit how much he'll get. To get only 350k more- and still have that threat of draft pick compensation tied to him next year- it's a mistake.
01-10-2019 12:20 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #384
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-10-2019 12:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 11:53 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:39 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:36 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Why was it a huge mistake?

well for one he now can still be offered the QO and have the draft compensation tied with him. Meanwhile Ryu next year can't.

Indeed I forgot about that

It's obviously not a "huge mistake." He hasn't lost any money or opportunity (yet). This was a judgement call based on the current circumstances and he's betting on himself. The state of MLB catching is pretty shaky right now, and as far as I can tell the reason Grandal wasn't getting gatorade showers of cash is because he **** the bed in the playoffs. If he has a solid 2019 he'll have offers out his ass and the draft pick loss may have little bearing. We'll have the benefit of hindsight next year to see which of these decisions, if any, was a mistake. But if he has a lousy 2019 the mistake we'll point to was turning down the Mets' $60MM offer.

If he has a great '19 then still the draft pick compensation will limit how much he'll get. To get only 350k more- and still have that threat of draft pick compensation tied to him next year- it's a mistake.

I think a mediocre 2019 is more likely to limit his offer. A great 2019? With the FA catchers on next year's market? He'll have to beat teams back with a stick.
01-10-2019 12:35 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #385
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-10-2019 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 10:38 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Brian Dozier to the Nats for 1/9. Good pickup. He makes for solid depth and decent RH power. Can't ignore the roster spots between 15-40.

I'd assume he'll be the regular 2b. allows Kendrick to be utility guy.

Bench will be Kenrick, Difo, Taylor, Suzuki, and Adams.

If Nats got Harper back, look for Eaton and or Taylor to be dealt.

Dozier was a disaster for the Dodgers in 2018, supposedly in part because of a knee problem. Better hope that's healed.
01-10-2019 12:52 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #386
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
funny article...
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...story.html

sounds like the Padres may be back in brown next season.....
01-10-2019 04:04 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #387
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
think one thing for sure. Folks always used to say the post season was meaningless for the most part in free agency....

think that theory took a major hit this offseason.
01-11-2019 12:05 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #388
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Nobody mentions the great pickup by the Mets? Jed Lowrie for 2/20 is an absolute steal and gives the Mets even more depth. They now have Ramos, D'arnaud, Alonso, Frazier, Cano, McNeill, Rosario, Lowrie, Davis, Conforto, Lagares, Broxton, Nimmo. Not a great roster in terms of peak talent, but very balanced with very few holes. Their next move should be calling Zaidi about Will Smith. Jeff Sullivan's column from the other day, telling teams to inquire about Smith: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

Obviously their roster is not as good as that of the Nats (even without Harper), but it could easily be the 1st WC.
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2019 12:25 PM by flyingswoosh.)
01-11-2019 12:21 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #389
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-11-2019 12:21 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Nobody mentions the great pickup by the Mets? Jed Lowrie for 2/20 is an absolute steal and gives the Mets even more depth. They now have Ramos, D'arnaud, Alonso, Frazier, Cano, McNeill, Rosario, Lowrie, Davis, Conforto, Lagares, Broxton, Nimmo. Not a great roster in terms of peak talent, but very balanced with very few holes. Their next move should be calling Zaidi about Will Smith. Jeff Sullivan's column from the other day, telling teams to inquire about Smith: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

Obviously their roster is not as good as that of the Nats (even without Harper), but it could easily be the 1st WC.

That's a crowded infield.

Speaking of 2B, another Dodgers target signed elsewhere. DJ LeMahieu to the Yankees.
01-11-2019 01:55 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #390
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-11-2019 01:55 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-11-2019 12:21 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Nobody mentions the great pickup by the Mets? Jed Lowrie for 2/20 is an absolute steal and gives the Mets even more depth. They now have Ramos, D'arnaud, Alonso, Frazier, Cano, McNeill, Rosario, Lowrie, Davis, Conforto, Lagares, Broxton, Nimmo. Not a great roster in terms of peak talent, but very balanced with very few holes. Their next move should be calling Zaidi about Will Smith. Jeff Sullivan's column from the other day, telling teams to inquire about Smith: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

Obviously their roster is not as good as that of the Nats (even without Harper), but it could easily be the 1st WC.

That's a crowded infield.

Speaking of 2B, another Dodgers target signed elsewhere. DJ LeMahieu to the Yankees.

People keep saying that, but the Dodgers were so crowded they were able to play major WS games with Bellinger on the bench. Teams are finally recognizing the importance of depth. It's not easy to win when your roster is littered with easy outs.
01-11-2019 02:53 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #391
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-11-2019 02:53 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-11-2019 01:55 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-11-2019 12:21 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Nobody mentions the great pickup by the Mets? Jed Lowrie for 2/20 is an absolute steal and gives the Mets even more depth. They now have Ramos, D'arnaud, Alonso, Frazier, Cano, McNeill, Rosario, Lowrie, Davis, Conforto, Lagares, Broxton, Nimmo. Not a great roster in terms of peak talent, but very balanced with very few holes. Their next move should be calling Zaidi about Will Smith. Jeff Sullivan's column from the other day, telling teams to inquire about Smith: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

Obviously their roster is not as good as that of the Nats (even without Harper), but it could easily be the 1st WC.

That's a crowded infield.

Speaking of 2B, another Dodgers target signed elsewhere. DJ LeMahieu to the Yankees.

People keep saying that, but the Dodgers were so crowded they were able to play major WS games with Bellinger on the bench. Teams are finally recognizing the importance of depth. It's not easy to win when your roster is littered with easy outs.

Yeah, these are all good points but the Dodgers did not have anywhere near a typical season for infields, and it's worth noting the ever-present complaint from players that they don't perform well when they can't play enough to get in a groove. It's not an insurmountable problem (usually) but it requires planning, a player-friendly manager, and patient players.
01-11-2019 04:48 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #392
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Um, wut?

When I first saw the headline in my feed I wondered if there's another Russell Martin out there. The guy is about league averge wRC+ and his defense is still very good, but damn. And that salary? Dodgers will only pay a fraction of it but his competitive balance number is like $16MM and that goes on LA's books right? I can't tell if this is good or bad. Are the Dodgers fine going over the threshold? Or are they nearly done now because they're almost at the number? This just feels like such a weird deal if the luxury tax is important.

Argh.

I've heard two things so far: 1) Barnes has made a bunch of improvement on his swing after working with his hitting coaches, and Martin will be a fine backup, and 2) Marlins may want Barnes in a Realmuto trade, so the Dodgers would need a solid backup for him. #2 sounds a little far-fetched to me because Barnes was so bad last year but he's cheap and anything's possible with the Marlins.
01-11-2019 04:57 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #393
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-11-2019 04:57 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Dodgers will only pay a fraction of it but his competitive balance number is like $16MM and that goes on LA's books right?

I may be wrong about this part. Looks like Marlins are paying $16.4 MM which is exactly his competitive balance #. So not a hit on the threshold but I’m still not sure how I feel about this deal.
01-12-2019 11:40 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #394
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
so just saw that the Grandal deal was 16 million for this year with a mutual option for 2020 for 16 million, with 2.25 million buyout. So for Brewers, he'll only count 16 million vs the threshold this year.
01-15-2019 11:17 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #395
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-15-2019 11:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so just saw that the Grandal deal was 16 million for this year with a mutual option for 2020 for 16 million, with 2.25 million buyout. So for Brewers, he'll only count 16 million vs the threshold this year.

Did you see his rationale for turning down the Mets' offer?



So, he thought it was a low ball? And therefore he'd be ruining things for future free agents?
01-16-2019 01:04 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #396
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Yeah I did see it.....

He might be costing himself quite a bit of money. Especially if playoffs Grandal shows up more now. Got a tougher division to play in and then has the pretty good AL West for interleague play.
01-16-2019 02:24 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #397
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Ottavino to the Yankees. Best bullpen in MLB? I think so. They’ve done a great job improving this offseason. I know they’re playing it cool, but if they can figure a way to bring in Machado? It’s all over.
01-17-2019 11:46 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #398
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-17-2019 11:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Ottavino to the Yankees. Best bullpen in MLB? I think so. They’ve done a great job improving this offseason. I know they’re playing it cool, but if they can figure a way to bring in Machado? It’s all over.

Not necessarily. Wouldn't be the first time the Yankees had the best players money can buy and still didn't win the World Series...
01-18-2019 01:47 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #399
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(01-18-2019 01:47 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 11:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Ottavino to the Yankees. Best bullpen in MLB? I think so. They’ve done a great job improving this offseason. I know they’re playing it cool, but if they can figure a way to bring in Machado? It’s all over.

Not necessarily. Wouldn't be the first time the Yankees had the best players money can buy and still didn't win the World Series...

Yeah they still have flaws. I don't see that they improved their lineup and its feast or famine quality. I really like the rotation, but there are obvious risks. I think we can all see a world where Severino doesn't fully bounce back, Tanaka continues having arm issues, Paxton gets injured, Happy succumbs to his age and Sabathia does no better than last year. As of right now I think the Sox are still the heavy favorite in the league.

I feel bad for the Rays. If they were in the Central they'd have a much better shot at the 2nd WC.
01-18-2019 10:47 AM
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Post: #400
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
I think for the Red Sox though you can see it where Sale isn't right, Price starts to show his age, and they don't get Kimbrel and the back end of the bullpen is questionable at best.....

one thing to watch 2nd half of the year is Montgomery will be returning...

It's close to 50/50 for me between the 2.
01-18-2019 10:56 AM
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