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ODUDJ96 Offline
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ODU vs Middle
We won the Duece Bowl in dramatic fashion against western. Middle opens a 4.5 pt favorite. Last two weeks, they lost to FIU and squeaked by Charlotte. This is a winnable game and is our bowl game. And don’t forget they ended last season for us.
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2018 05:35 PM by ODUDJ96.)
10-21-2018 05:32 PM
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Old Dominion Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
I'd feel a lot better knowing Lawrence Gardner is back in the middle
10-21-2018 05:36 PM
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ETSUDB8-79 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-21-2018 05:36 PM)Old Dominion Wrote:  I'd feel a lot better knowing Lawrence Gardner is back in the middle

+ 1
10-21-2018 05:50 PM
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Justanodufan Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-21-2018 05:36 PM)Old Dominion Wrote:  I'd feel a lot better knowing Lawrence Gardner is back in the middle

His name is Garner
10-21-2018 06:27 PM
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ODUDJ96 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-21-2018 05:50 PM)ETSUDB8-79 Wrote:  
(10-21-2018 05:36 PM)Old Dominion Wrote:  I'd feel a lot better knowing Lawrence Gardner is back in the middle

+ 1

Same here - he is a game changer for our defense.
10-21-2018 06:59 PM
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ODUalum78 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
On paper MTSU is statistically not as good as WKU on either side of the ball
However:
Empty Sue has beaten Marshall, UNCC, and FAU.

On offense MTSU runs multiple sets.
Senior QB Brent Stockstill is an NFL prospect and an excellent passer, and has NFL prospect Junior Ty Lee (5'9") to throw to.
Senior 6'0" Patrick Smith is the other primary WR
Stunningly (to me anyway) RB Brad Anderson is currently the #1 receiving target, out of the backfield and as an H back.
The Raiders' rushing offense is anemic and is ranked 110 in the Nation. It may be the worst rushing offense we have seen. It only gained 33 yards @ 1 ypc vs Charlotte in that anomalous win. (UNCC blew them out statistically)
Stockstill will take off and run, he has had to, as the MTSU OL is somewhat of a liability for them.

On defense the Raiders run a base 4-3. They are not good vs either the pass or the rush, but their rush defense may be the worst we have seen this season, better than only ours in CUSA.

The Empty Sue kicking game is mediocre. They have missed some XPs and are 50% on FGs with 34 yds being the longest.

Bottom line:
I like our chances in the air (as usual) but since we are starting to run better on offense, I like our chances on the ground. This could be a breakout game for our rushing attack this season.
The poor rushing game of MT poses a threat only because our rush defense is even worse.
The passing of Stockstill and Ty Lee present a big challenge to our "defense", as does their passing to RBs out of the backfield.
We will want to take advantage of their OL (pressure the QB) and stop their run.

I think we win this one at home.
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2018 10:29 PM by ODUalum78.)
10-21-2018 07:07 PM
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Gilesfan Online
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Post: #7
RE: ODU vs Middle
MTSU is a better team than WKY. They have a better defense and a better passing game. We are going to have to play much better on defense to win the game.
10-21-2018 07:14 PM
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ODUalum78 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-21-2018 07:14 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  MTSU is a better team than WKY. They have a better defense and a better passing game. We are going to have to play much better on defense to win the game.

The MTSU passing offense certainly presents a far greater challenge to us than WKU if for no other reason than the matchups.

I am curious however, as to your assessment of their defense.
The two common opponents were close relative to total defense.;
Marshall was held to 20 points by WKU and 24 by MTSU. Total yards by Marshall vs both were almost identical, 382 vs MTSU and 401 vs WKU
UNCC won both total yards stat battles, gaining 448 yards vs WKU (admittedly a big loss by WKU) and 359 vs MTSU (shoulda been a loss by MTSU).

Nationally:
MTSU ranks 91st total defense vs 72nd for WKU
MTSU pass defense is 75th vs 62nd for WKU
MTSU rush defense is 93rd vs 79th for WKU
MTSU scoring defense 100 vs 77th for WKU

Total yards allowed with MTSU/UGA(484) and Wisc/WKU(491) were almost identical so the top 10 opponent skew is a wash. Otherwise the competition has been similar.

Although they won the games, MT lost the total yards stat battle with FIU, FAU, and UNCC. 05-stirthepot
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2018 10:05 PM by ODUalum78.)
10-21-2018 08:03 PM
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odufansam Offline
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Post: #9
RE: ODU vs Middle
Here is the unfortunate state of the football team: Middle Tennessee will score on almost every possession. ODU's offense will need to match that. Otherwise we have no chance.
10-22-2018 07:56 AM
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Gilesfan Online
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-21-2018 08:03 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  
(10-21-2018 07:14 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  MTSU is a better team than WKY. They have a better defense and a better passing game. We are going to have to play much better on defense to win the game.

The MTSU passing offense certainly presents a far greater challenge to us than WKU if for no other reason than the matchups.

I am curious however, as to your assessment of their defense.
The two common opponents were close relative to total defense.;
Marshall was held to 20 points by WKU and 24 by MTSU. Total yards by Marshall vs both were almost identical, 382 vs MTSU and 401 vs WKU
UNCC won both total yards stat battles, gaining 448 yards vs WKU (admittedly a big loss by WKU) and 359 vs MTSU (shoulda been a loss by MTSU).

Nationally:
MTSU ranks 91st total defense vs 72nd for WKU
MTSU pass defense is 75th vs 62nd for WKU
MTSU rush defense is 93rd vs 79th for WKU
MTSU scoring defense 100 vs 77th for WKU

Total yards allowed with MTSU/UGA(484) and Wisc/WKU(491) were almost identical so the top 10 opponent skew is a wash. Otherwise the competition has been similar.

Although they won the games, MT lost the total yards stat battle with FIU, FAU, and UNCC. 05-stirthepot

MTSU
Offense
4.9 yards per play; 3.3 yards per rush, 6.8 yards per pass on 66% completions

Defense
5.4 yards per play; 4.3 yards per rush, 6.9 yards per pass on 62% completions.

WKY
Offense 5.3 yards per play, 3.5 yards per rush, 7 yards per pass on 65% completions

Defense
5.8 yards per play; 4.4 yards per rush, 7.4 yards per pass on 55% completions

Numbers are pretty close....but, MTSU has faced far far superior defenses and better offenses as well.

Not updated this week yet, but the gap is probably wider

F+/-:
MTSU- 99, ODU- 109, Western Kentucky- 110

S&P ratings:
MTSU-88...102 on offense and 56 on defense
ODU- 111...65 on offense and 118 on defense
WKY- 107..108 on offense and 96 on defense
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2018 09:14 AM by Gilesfan.)
10-22-2018 08:20 AM
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cmett003 Online
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Post: #11
RE: ODU vs Middle
If we cant stop them on downs we need to force turnovers. If we are +2 on the turnover battle we will win this game.
10-22-2018 08:24 AM
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bit_9 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
Looks like wku got a td on 50% of their poss and 2 fg's. Given mtsu and wku are about the same in offense let's hope we can step it up a bit at home to equalize. Otherwise might be another laat with the ball wins game.

Posted from mobile device. Hopefully it's coherent.
10-22-2018 08:55 AM
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Roy Munson Online
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RE: ODU vs Middle
And right on cue, here comes the bad weather....
10-22-2018 09:33 AM
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odufansam Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
Last season we gave up 41 points to MT. Our defense is as bad, if not worse, than last season. It will probably take 40+ points to win. 30+ will keep it close.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2018 09:40 AM by odufansam.)
10-22-2018 09:40 AM
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ODUalum78 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-22-2018 09:33 AM)Roy Munson Wrote:  And right on cue, here comes the bad weather....

Believe it or not that might favor us.

Our rushing game has shown some life recently, since vs Marshall's tenth (at the time) best rushing defense in the nation.
MTSU's rushing defense is not great.

Further, MTSU doesn't run well, and although the numbers are similar, Stockstil, Lee, Smith, and Anderson pose more of a threat to our defense than did WKU in the air.

04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2018 09:45 AM by ODUalum78.)
10-22-2018 09:41 AM
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ODUalum78 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-22-2018 09:40 AM)odufansam Wrote:  Last season we gave up 41 points to MT. Our defense is as bad, if not worse, than last season. It will probably take 40+ points to win. 30+ will keep it close.


Our defense is worse.
The MT passing attack is about the same as last season, but they put up 320 yards on the ground in that game.
I don't expect that to happen Saturday, but who knows with our defense...... 03-banghead
10-22-2018 10:01 AM
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CalODUFan Online
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RE: ODU vs Middle
Word is that Garner and Cox are both back this week. Cox and Strong should be a nice 1-2 punch and Garner is sorely needed.
10-22-2018 02:06 PM
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Old Dominion Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
Stockstill was injured a couple of weeks ago. Has he returned?
10-22-2018 07:40 PM
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ODUalum78 Offline
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-22-2018 07:40 PM)Old Dominion Wrote:  Stockstill was injured a couple of weeks ago. Has he returned?

He played the whole game vs Charlotte on Saturday
10-22-2018 07:51 PM
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Monarchblue Online
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RE: ODU vs Middle
(10-22-2018 02:06 PM)CalODUFan Wrote:  Word is that Garner and Cox are both back this week. Cox and Strong should be a nice 1-2 punch and Garner is sorely needed.
Am I the only one who doesn't think it's a coincidence that the running game got better as soon as Cox went out?

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10-22-2018 07:59 PM
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