(10-16-2018 10:06 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  In that scenario, a 12-1 Michigan team would have quality victories over Wisconsin, PSU, Michigan State, and tOSU combined with a quality loss to an undefeated ND team. I'd say that would put their chances at 100%.

Dunno if at this point I would call any of those three "quality" wins.

(10-16-2018 08:39 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think an unbeaten NC State is going to get awfully close to the conversation.

At 12-0 NC State's reward is to get it's ass kicked in the Orange Bowl by Bama.

(If we win the Atlantic, we will not play the ECU game - hence 12-0).


Clemson is simply a much deeper football team, the deepest in the ACC and they have a better player at every position. Even their QB is "better" although he much less experienced than Finley.


The problem in the ACC this year is that the Orange Bowl is taken, so an 11-1 NC State has very few places to go.

I think Michigan still controls their own destiny, unfortunately.

(10-16-2018 09:23 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I would put NC State in there. It won't happen of course, but if they go 13-0 with a win over Clemson they have to be in and there would (at most) be only 3 other power team undefeated (Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State)

NC State can't go 13 and 0. If they end up 11 and 0 they are in the ACC Championship game. They can't play ECU December 1st if they are in the Championship Game. The best they can do for the season is 12 and 0 if they go into the ACC Championship Game at 11 and 0. After that they should be in the play offs with a perfect record.

Playoffs:

Alabama 13-0 - SEC Champ
Ohio State 13-0 - B-10 Champ
Notre Dame 12-0 - Independent
NC State 12-0 - ACC Champ

1-loss Texas is worse than 1-loss West Virginia and even an undefeated UCF. Losing to Maryland is inexcusable for a playoff team, even if they beat Oklahoma twice.

PAC is all but out.

If both Alabama and Ohio State to win out, there will be no 2-bid conferences unless all hell breaks loose.

So UCF is really, really close to actually controlling their own destiny if Alabama and OSU win out. What are the odds that both Notre Dame and the Clemson/NC State winner remain undefeated? If past history is any indication, it's highly unlikely.

(10-16-2018 03:18 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 10:06 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  In that scenario, a 12-1 Michigan team would have quality victories over Wisconsin, PSU, Michigan State, and tOSU combined with a quality loss to an undefeated ND team. I'd say that would put their chances at 100%.

Dunno if at this point I would call any of those three "quality" wins.

As of now, all three are still top 25 teams. Might change, but by the time the CFP selects it's 4 teams they'll probably still be in the top 25.

Even if one (or all) aren't, beating a decent PSU team mean a lot more than beating Houston or K-State.

(10-16-2018 10:16 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  1-loss Texas is worse than 1-loss West Virginia and even an undefeated UCF. Losing to Maryland is inexcusable for a playoff team, even if they beat Oklahoma twice.

PAC is all but out.

If both Alabama and Ohio State to win out, there will be no 2-bid conferences unless all hell breaks loose.

So UCF is really, really close to actually controlling their own destiny if Alabama and OSU win out. What are the odds that both Notre Dame and the Clemson/NC State winner remain undefeated? If past history is any indication, it's highly unlikely.

To be fair, Maryland looks to be a 6-7 win bowl eligible team so that's on par with Iowa State who beat WVU. That would be a wash IMO.

As for the rest, there's no way in hell the committee puts UCF in the playoffs over a 1 loss P5 conference champ or a 1 loss ND for that matter. To think otherwise is wishful thinking.

Everyone seems to have forgotten that besides the SEC gauntlet, LSU must also survive a home OOC trap game vs Rice. NOT to be taken for granted!

(10-17-2018 08:41 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Everyone seems to have forgotten that besides the SEC gauntlet, LSU must also survive a home OOC trap game vs Rice. NOT to be taken for granted!

"Why does Rice play Texas?"