(10-15-2018 11:00 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 05:04 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  At this point it looks like the SEC only gets one team in...

UGa Fla is an eliminator, no questions.
Bama's OOC is horrible. They need to win the division and subsequent CCG to get in so 13-0 or eliminated as long as everyone else holds serve.
LSU probably out if they lose another game.

Lets say the Big 12 winner has one loss (a BIG IF.... but if either UT or OU in all likely hood), I'd say 12-1 will be enough to slip in.

An OSU/Michigan one loss champion is probably in.

Clemson needs to run the table, or they need A LOT of help.

So if you ask me, it's ND followed by UCF in the drivers seat. That UGa loss kinda opens the table for a UCF to backdoor this thing and get a Cotton Bowl bid vs a 13-0 Bama with an Irish loss.

There's no way the SEC doesn't get a team in the playoffs if their champ is undefeated or 1 loss.

That's one

Assuming tOSU is undefeated going into the Michigan game (cause as much as I hate to admit it, Wisconsin isn't beating either of them), the winner of that game is in.

That's two

If ND runs the table and ends up 12-0, they're in.

That's three.

Leaving the last seat at the table to the remaining 3 conferences. Clemson runs the table, they're in. If Clemson is a one loss champ then it depends on who wins the XII. If the Horns win out, I think they're in over a 1 loss Clemson. It would be close between a 1 loss OU and Clemson. Clemson would get in over WVU. Unless "it" hits the fan and both those conferences' champs lost more than one, the PAC is out.

If the scenario was the XII, PAC, and ACC ALL had two loss champs, I'd bet the farm that the SEC runner up would be in for the 4th spot.

Clemson loses 1

Big 12 champ has two losses.

Bama loses to a two loss East champ.

I don't see how Bama gets in over a two loss SEC East champ. Unlikely but possible... so UCF would get a slot over Clemson and Big 12 two loss... absolutely.

(10-15-2018 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 11:00 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 05:04 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  At this point it looks like the SEC only gets one team in...

UGa Fla is an eliminator, no questions.
Bama's OOC is horrible. They need to win the division and subsequent CCG to get in so 13-0 or eliminated as long as everyone else holds serve.
LSU probably out if they lose another game.

Lets say the Big 12 winner has one loss (a BIG IF.... but if either UT or OU in all likely hood), I'd say 12-1 will be enough to slip in.

An OSU/Michigan one loss champion is probably in.

Clemson needs to run the table, or they need A LOT of help.

So if you ask me, it's ND followed by UCF in the drivers seat. That UGa loss kinda opens the table for a UCF to backdoor this thing and get a Cotton Bowl bid vs a 13-0 Bama with an Irish loss.

There's no way the SEC doesn't get a team in the playoffs if their champ is undefeated or 1 loss.

That's one

Assuming tOSU is undefeated going into the Michigan game (cause as much as I hate to admit it, Wisconsin isn't beating either of them), the winner of that game is in.

That's two

If ND runs the table and ends up 12-0, they're in.

That's three.

Leaving the last seat at the table to the remaining 3 conferences. Clemson runs the table, they're in. If Clemson is a one loss champ then it depends on who wins the XII. If the Horns win out, I think they're in over a 1 loss Clemson. It would be close between a 1 loss OU and Clemson. Clemson would get in over WVU. Unless "it" hits the fan and both those conferences' champs lost more than one, the PAC is out.

If the scenario was the XII, PAC, and ACC ALL had two loss champs, I'd bet the farm that the SEC runner up would be in for the 4th spot.

Clemson loses 1

Big 12 champ has two losses.

Bama loses to a two loss East champ.

I don't see how Bama gets in over a two loss SEC East champ. Unlikely but possible... so UCF would get a slot over Clemson and Big 12 two loss... absolutely.

In that scenario, a 1 loss Oregon team (PAC Champ) gets in over UCF.

The ONLY shot in hell UCF has to get in would be if multiple conference champs have 2 losses and ND doesn't win out. Any of the P5 champs with 1 loss will be seated before UCF.

The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

UCF has a shot, but they just need a royal mess in front of them, namely a bunch of two-loss teams like we had in 2007.

(10-15-2018 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama loses to a two loss East champ.

I don't see how Bama gets in over a two loss SEC East champ.

Why? We had exactly that scenario in the B1G two years ago - Penn State beat Ohio State and was B1G champ, but Ohio State had only one loss and PSU had two, and the committee picked Ohio State for the playoffs not PSU.

You obviously have a hair up your arse about Alabama (FWIW, they are far from my favorite either), but realistically, a Bama that finishes with one loss is *likely* to make the playoffs. They have made the playoffs three times so far with one loss and have never been left out with one loss. That's a 3-0 record for making the playoffs with a loss, including a time they weren't SEC champs.

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

To be fair, it's not just ESPN and it's crony committee: If we went by the computers, UCF wouldn't be anywhere near the playoffs right now either. E.g., in the Massey composite, they are currently #14. So if anything, the human pollsters, who have UCF at #9 and #10, are being biased in their favor, not against them.

(10-15-2018 10:32 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 09:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Here’s another scenario, one loss ND and one loss conference Champion UM? That’s a scenario where ND vaults over both Big 12 and UCF, but I don’t think ND can afford a late season loss.

the CFP committee has shown more of a recency bias than even the polls. Late losses hurt. Late big wins really help.

Alabama last year lost on the next to last weekend and made the playoff now didn't they?

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

I do think Houston would have made it a few years back if they won out. The path:
1) be ranked the prior year and finish strong;
2) have enough key players back to get a good preseason ranking;
3) have a ranked P5 opponent ooc and beat them;
4) don't squeak by any bad teams; and
5) run the table.

And, of course, don't be competing against 4 unbeatens out of the P5 and ND.

Houston beat OU who was top 5. But they didn't run the table.

UCF has no ranked P5 opponents. Not sure they have any P5 opponents with the cancelled game. They squeaked by Memphis, but Memphis may not be too bad. But #3 kills them.

(10-15-2018 03:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 10:32 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 09:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Here’s another scenario, one loss ND and one loss conference Champion UM? That’s a scenario where ND vaults over both Big 12 and UCF, but I don’t think ND can afford a late season loss.

the CFP committee has shown more of a recency bias than even the polls. Late losses hurt. Late big wins really help.

Alabama last year lost on the next to last weekend and made the playoff now didn't they?

How many other 1 loss P5 teams were there?

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama loses to a two loss East champ.

I don't see how Bama gets in over a two loss SEC East champ.

Why? We had exactly that scenario in the B1G two years ago - Penn State beat Ohio State and was B1G champ, but Ohio State had only one loss and PSU had two, and the committee picked Ohio State for the playoffs not PSU.

You obviously have a hair up your arse about Alabama (FWIW, they are far from my favorite either), but realistically, a Bama that finishes with one loss is *likely* to make the playoffs. They have made the playoffs three times so far with one loss and have never been left out with one loss. That's a 3-0 record for making the playoffs with a loss, including a time they weren't SEC champs.

I don't have anything against Bama. I picked them over OSU by a mile last year.

Obviously you forgot about the OSU win in Norman that year when OSU secured the At-Large (non-CC playoff berth). Bama doesn't have that; they need to run the table or win the conference with one loss.

(10-15-2018 03:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

UCF has a shot, but they just need a royal mess in front of them, namely a bunch of two-loss teams like we had in 2007.

That was the year Boise State went 12-0, and the chaos in front of them kept them out of the championship game when all the P5 champs have 1 loss or more. Boise State sent a message and beat the Big 12 champ.

(10-15-2018 03:44 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama loses to a two loss East champ.

I don't see how Bama gets in over a two loss SEC East champ.

Why? We had exactly that scenario in the B1G two years ago - Penn State beat Ohio State and was B1G champ, but Ohio State had only one loss and PSU had two, and the committee picked Ohio State for the playoffs not PSU.

You obviously have a hair up your arse about Alabama (FWIW, they are far from my favorite either), but realistically, a Bama that finishes with one loss is *likely* to make the playoffs. They have made the playoffs three times so far with one loss and have never been left out with one loss. That's a 3-0 record for making the playoffs with a loss, including a time they weren't SEC champs.

I don't have anything against Bama. I picked them over OSU by a mile last year.

Obviously you forgot about the OSU win in Norman that year when OSU secured the At-Large (non-CC playoff berth). Bama doesn't have that; they need to run the table or win the conference with one loss.

Did Alabama have an OU-type OOC win last year? No. Did they have one loss without winning the SEC? Yes.

Did they make the playoffs anyway? Yes.

Again, the point remains, the committee and the national interest gradually diminishes the more regional and south centric the sport becomes. While UCF is still Florida, it’s a Cinderella story.

This thing becomes bogus if the SEC backdoors this every year. A bad loss late in the year will sink Bama.

Yes Oregon has a slim shot as does Iowa as one loss P5 champs, but it’s still a weak argument even if they finish ahead of UCF. They are behind UCF now and they don’t play anyone decent until the respective CCGs. Plus Iowa already lost to Wisconsin.

So I’ll stick to my thesis, if Clemson and ND get knocked off and a two loss SEC east beats Bama, I think UCF is ahead of at least 2/3. In that scenario, probably UM/OSU at #1, Big 12 one loss at #2. Bama #3, UCF #4, no questions. (If either Clemson ND undefeated, then it’s Bama UCF for #4), very awesome scenario.

Bama is better but not most deserving.

(10-15-2018 04:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

UCF has a shot, but they just need a royal mess in front of them, namely a bunch of two-loss teams like we had in 2007.

That was the year Boise State went 12-0, and the chaos in front of them kept them out of the championship game when all the P5 champs have 1 loss or more. Boise State sent a message and beat the Big 12 champ.

That was 2006. 2007 was the Colt Brennan/June Jones/Hawai’i year.

(10-15-2018 03:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

I do think Houston would have made it a few years back if they won out. The path:
1) be ranked the prior year and finish strong;
2) have enough key players back to get a good preseason ranking;
3) have a ranked P5 opponent ooc and beat them;
4) don't squeak by any bad teams; and
5) run the table.

And, of course, don't be competing against 4 unbeatens out of the P5 and ND.

Houston beat OU who was top 5. But they didn't run the table.

UCF has no ranked P5 opponents. Not sure they have any P5 opponents with the cancelled game. They squeaked by Memphis, but Memphis may not be too bad. But #3 kills them.

They destroyed PITT , the same team that took Notre Dame to the brink and honestly
should've won that game.

(10-15-2018 07:15 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

I do think Houston would have made it a few years back if they won out. The path:
1) be ranked the prior year and finish strong;
2) have enough key players back to get a good preseason ranking;
3) have a ranked P5 opponent ooc and beat them;
4) don't squeak by any bad teams; and
5) run the table.

And, of course, don't be competing against 4 unbeatens out of the P5 and ND.

Houston beat OU who was top 5. But they didn't run the table.

UCF has no ranked P5 opponents. Not sure they have any P5 opponents with the cancelled game. They squeaked by Memphis, but Memphis may not be too bad. But #3 kills them.

They destroyed PITT , the same team that took Notre Dame to the brink and honestly
should've won that game.

Taking to the brink isn't a column in the standings. It's wins/losses.

While UCF was barely beating a 4-3 Memphis team (who should have won that game) and giving up almost 40 to FAU, ND was playing Michigan, Stanford, and Va Tech.

Schools like ND, tOSU, Bama, etc would kill to have the cake schedule of the AAC "champ".

(10-15-2018 07:37 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 07:15 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

I do think Houston would have made it a few years back if they won out. The path:
1) be ranked the prior year and finish strong;
2) have enough key players back to get a good preseason ranking;
3) have a ranked P5 opponent ooc and beat them;
4) don't squeak by any bad teams; and
5) run the table.

And, of course, don't be competing against 4 unbeatens out of the P5 and ND.

Houston beat OU who was top 5. But they didn't run the table.

UCF has no ranked P5 opponents. Not sure they have any P5 opponents with the cancelled game. They squeaked by Memphis, but Memphis may not be too bad. But #3 kills them.

They destroyed PITT , the same team that took Notre Dame to the brink and honestly
should've won that game.

Taking to the brink isn't a column in the standings. It's wins/losses.

While UCF was barely beating a 4-3 Memphis team (who should have won that game) and giving up almost 40 to FAU, ND was playing Michigan, Stanford, and Va Tech.

Schools like ND, tOSU, Bama, etc would kill to have the cake schedule of the AAC "champ".

Yes, the bottom line is that Pitt is a 3-4 football team that got destroyed by Penn State worse than by UCF, for what that's worth.

As for Pitt vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame had 9 more first downs and 100 more yards, so not sure how Pitt should have won the game.

(10-15-2018 07:37 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 07:15 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 01:10 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The committee will show you in a couple of weeks that UCF has no shot at the CFP.

Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

I do think Houston would have made it a few years back if they won out. The path:
1) be ranked the prior year and finish strong;
2) have enough key players back to get a good preseason ranking;
3) have a ranked P5 opponent ooc and beat them;
4) don't squeak by any bad teams; and
5) run the table.

And, of course, don't be competing against 4 unbeatens out of the P5 and ND.

Houston beat OU who was top 5. But they didn't run the table.

UCF has no ranked P5 opponents. Not sure they have any P5 opponents with the cancelled game. They squeaked by Memphis, but Memphis may not be too bad. But #3 kills them.

They destroyed PITT , the same team that took Notre Dame to the brink and honestly
should've won that game.

Taking to the brink isn't a column in the standings. It's wins/losses.

While UCF was barely beating a 4-3 Memphis team (who should have won that game) and giving up almost 40 to FAU, ND was playing Michigan, Stanford, and Va Tech.

Schools like ND, tOSU, Bama, etc would kill to have the cake schedule of the AAC "champ".

Hey, I was answering the other posters question not trying to pick a fight with you buddy. Yes Memphis has stumbled early this season while breaking in a new QB, but they're probably one of the best 4-3 teams in the nation. For the record I don't think that PITT is a bad team (they're in first in their division in the ACC) and I only included the fact that they took Notre Dame to the brink and should've won the game to add context to the answer to his question. However anytime you guys want to schedule a h/h with any of the AAC top teams, I will guarantee you it'll be accepted instantly, unless that murderers row of Illinois, Purdue, Indiana and Maryland or Nebraska is more than enough for ya.

(10-15-2018 08:16 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 07:37 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 07:15 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 03:17 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  Exactly!!!! There is absolutely no way that ESPN or it's crony committee will allow a Non-Papered Conference member to enter into it's CFP's. This entire thing is a money grab and a mockery of the system. There is absolutely no route to the Playoffs for any team outside of the Pampered5.

I do think Houston would have made it a few years back if they won out. The path:
1) be ranked the prior year and finish strong;
2) have enough key players back to get a good preseason ranking;
3) have a ranked P5 opponent ooc and beat them;
4) don't squeak by any bad teams; and
5) run the table.

And, of course, don't be competing against 4 unbeatens out of the P5 and ND.

Houston beat OU who was top 5. But they didn't run the table.

UCF has no ranked P5 opponents. Not sure they have any P5 opponents with the cancelled game. They squeaked by Memphis, but Memphis may not be too bad. But #3 kills them.

They destroyed PITT , the same team that took Notre Dame to the brink and honestly
should've won that game.

Taking to the brink isn't a column in the standings. It's wins/losses.

While UCF was barely beating a 4-3 Memphis team (who should have won that game) and giving up almost 40 to FAU, ND was playing Michigan, Stanford, and Va Tech.

Schools like ND, tOSU, Bama, etc would kill to have the cake schedule of the AAC "champ".

Hey, I was answering the other posters question not trying to pick a fight with you buddy. Yes Memphis has stumbled early this season while breaking in a new QB, but they're probably one of the best 4-3 teams in the nation. For the record I don't think that PITT is a bad team (they're in first in their division in the ACC) and I only included the fact that they took Notre Dame to the brink and should've won the game to add context to the answer to his question. However anytime you guys want to schedule a h/h with any of the AAC top teams, I will guarantee you it'll be accepted instantly, unless that murderers row of Illinois, Purdue, Indiana and Maryland or Nebraska is more than enough for ya.

Texas thinks playing Maryland is murderers row.