Quote:That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/trum...ssion=true

DREAM HOUSE BARBIE

write the numbers however they think is their mantra.....

it's not going to matter come Nov. 6.....

they 'woke' up the wrong mothertruckers.....

(10-14-2018 02:12 PM)green Wrote:  

Quote:That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/trum...ssion=true

DREAM HOUSE BARBIE

The real clear politics house map backs this up. Post Kavanaugh, all of the tossups that moved went to the republicans. The democrats lost one lean seat back to tossup.

House elections that could go either way are hard to poll. Most house seats are safe to extremely safe. Its those in the middle that are difficult, and even with good polling, a slightly different turnout mix can sway the results rather severely.

(10-14-2018 03:14 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 02:12 PM)green Wrote:  

Quote:That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/trum...ssion=true

DREAM HOUSE BARBIE

The real clear politics house map backs this up. Post Kavanaugh, all of the tossups that moved went to the republicans. The democrats lost one lean seat back to tossup.

House elections that could go either way are hard to poll. Most house seats are safe to extremely safe. Its those in the middle that are difficult, and even with good polling, a slightly different turnout mix can sway the results rather severely.

Currently the safe/leans is 205 Dem 201 GOP since dems typically underperform v. polls it's starting to look like GOP will lose seats but retain control of House while gaining seats in the Senate.

CBS had a poll today that said with low voter turnout, they project the House to remain GOP 202-201 (I may have the numbers wrong - writing them down from memory).

If the voter turnout is low, the Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.

This is why some don't want voter ID and easy (or no) registration and a popular vote.

They want large populations of single mindedness to have power far beyond their borders.

I am woke.

Same shite as 2016. It's incredible how the closer we get to the election, the more the polls move in favor of the Republicans. It's almost like the muh blew wave narrative was entirely fake and a scam, and pushed just to set a particular narrative.

(10-14-2018 06:06 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  CBS had a poll today that said with low voter turnout, they project the House to remain GOP 202-201 (I may have the numbers wrong - writing them down from memory).

If the voter turnout is low, the Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.

They need to remember to remind their voters that republicans vote on Tuesday and democrats vote on Wednesday.

I love muh polls. Who you think gives their opinion to pollsters, the sky screamers or the guy hard at work?

(10-14-2018 03:14 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 02:12 PM)green Wrote:  

Quote:That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/trum...ssion=true

DREAM HOUSE BARBIE

The real clear politics house map backs this up. Post Kavanaugh, all of the tossups that moved went to the republicans. The democrats lost one lean seat back to tossup.

House elections that could go either way are hard to poll. Most house seats are safe to extremely safe. Its those in the middle that are difficult, and even with good polling, a slightly different turnout mix can sway the results rather severely.

while I don't disagree, the turnout by the red is going to shock 'em....

dem what?

#watchithappen

I agree with the quote by the OP. Dem blue districts are generally very blue. I could see a national poll overstating team blue's turnout/approval for this very reason.

(10-14-2018 07:56 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I agree with the quote by the OP. Dem blue districts are generally very blue. I could see a national poll overstating team blue's turnout/approval for this very reason.

I’m picturing verified twitter spewing their nonsense for the past 2 years, getting all excited about a blew wave, storming the polls and running up the score in D+25 districts..

..and the dems still losing the House and getting blown out in the Senate.

A 218-217 spilt would be absolutely dreadful. Every special election for the next two years would be nationalized and party flipping would be inevitable

(10-14-2018 08:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-14-2018 07:56 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I agree with the quote by the OP. Dem blue districts are generally very blue. I could see a national poll overstating team blue's turnout/approval for this very reason.

I’m picturing verified twitter spewing their nonsense for the past 2 years, getting all excited about a blew wave, storming the polls and running up the score in D+25 districts..

..and the dems still losing the House and getting blown out in the Senate.

I'll be shocked if that doesn't happen.....

again, they fk'd with the wrong mothertruckers.....

there are certain districts than cannot be overcome....but I'm seeing keep the house and smash the senate......