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Idaho St. @ Liberty
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army56mike Offline
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Idaho St. @ Liberty
Would this be considered a trap game? We’re coming off a hard fought unexpected victory, to play an FCS team, before another big road game.

I expect to win this one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost. It’s happenes plenty of times before.

Regardless, I am expecting a close game.

Liberty 42 - 27 Idaho St.
10-14-2018 10:19 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
I would call it more of a let-down game than a trap-game.
10-14-2018 11:20 AM
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Willflop Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
I'll feel a lot better if we can get WR King back, as I'm afraid AGG will be out for quite a while. Really unfortunate.

This could be a let down game, but we've already had a few of those. Hopefully we got them out of our system.
10-14-2018 12:07 PM
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army56mike Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
I thought king was out for the season. Maybe I have him confused with someone else.

I also read mono can last anywhere from 1 week to 2 months.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2018 12:35 PM by army56mike.)
10-14-2018 12:30 PM
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Ewglenn Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
They were technically ranked 27th this past week. They beat down Idaho who just dropped from FBS to FCS this year(62-28). They went to OT with UC Davis (ranked 14th and they beat San Jose St this year). They beat a N Arizona by 14 (the same team that beat UTEP BY 20). Are they NDSU? No, but they are a good team in one of the best FCS conferences. They have the ability to beat a lot of lower tier G5 schools. We should win this game but I think this is a trap so I think they will spoil homecoming. Idaho St 49 Liberty 45.
10-14-2018 01:22 PM
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GE and MTS Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
I want to believe Liberty will win. I want to believe that we are above losing to an FCS team. I want to believe that we are making progress as a program. However, I am very pessimistic about the coaching staff and the defense. I think we'll win but I won't be surprised to lose.
10-14-2018 01:26 PM
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GE and MTS Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
On another note, why are we even playing them? Exposure in Idaho doesn't give a lot of benefits. It isn't a recruiting hotbed. There aren't a ton of potential eyeballs nor is there a large alumni group from the area. We can't be paying them less than any one else, right?
10-14-2018 02:00 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
(10-14-2018 02:00 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  On another note, why are we even playing them? Exposure in Idaho doesn't give a lot of benefits. It isn't a recruiting hotbed. There aren't a ton of potential eyeballs nor is there a large alumni group from the area. We can't be paying them less than any one else, right?
Legit questions. I’d be curious to know when the contract was signed. My guess is that LU could not locate an FBS opponent for this week and had to grab some random FCS team that had an open date. Something similar happened to the Univ. of Houston about 2-3 year ago. It looked like they were going to have 2 FCS opponents on the schedule, and then at the last minute an opportunity broke loose to get one more FBS team. Tennessee Tech very graciously agreed to postpone their game to the next year.
10-14-2018 02:09 PM
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Ewglenn Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
It was who was available. I want to say I saw somewhere we are paying 350k for this one and 300k to Norfolk St.
10-14-2018 02:15 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
Just checked the “Matchup Predictor” on espn-dot-com.

I have no idea how they calculate those things but right now it says Liberty’s chance to win — 79.2%

Idaho State — 20.8%
10-14-2018 08:13 PM
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jcmanson Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
We are paying them $350k. The contract was signed 5/12/17.
10-15-2018 08:05 AM
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Curtisc83 Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
Pretty sure we are going to smoke them. UofI is not the team of last year so them crushing them doesn't mean much.
10-15-2018 08:18 AM
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Willflop Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
Since we are primarily still an FCS roster, it should give us some pause when looking at their stats. In total offense, they are ranked 5th at 529 yards per game. In scoring, they are ranked 6th at 41 ppg. They are also very balanced, rushing for 240 and passing for 288 yards per game.

On the plus side, they allow 432 yards per game (ranked 87th) and 268 through the air (ranked 103). This should play into our strengths. If our DC moving to the box is a magic bullet for our defense, Calvert snaps out of his funk and we can compensate for not having AGG, LU wins 42 to 21.

*Rankings are FCS only.
10-15-2018 08:43 AM
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GE and MTS Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
I don't think Calvert is in a funk as much as his receivers are VERY banged up. He should be playing better but there are factors beyond the QB that I think are the primary cause.
10-15-2018 08:59 AM
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Ewglenn Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
(10-15-2018 08:59 AM)GE and MTS Wrote:  I don't think Calvert is in a funk as much as his receivers are VERY banged up. He should be playing better but there are factors beyond the QB that I think are the primary cause.

I mean his numbers aren’t bad. 17-32 238yds 2tds 1int, obviously you would want better but that was one of the best defenses he will play.
10-15-2018 12:06 PM
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Willflop Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
They are not awful, no. It's just that he's ranked 107 out of 130 in completion percentage through six games. However, he's tied for 9th in passing yards per game (tied with Mason Fine of NT). That's an interesting extreme on both ends, but I'll take the YPG.

I'm sure it's a combination of receiver drops, the OL, and higher competition overall, and not just him. It's scary to think where he'd be if he got it up to 62%+. I'm also basing it on anecdotal observations, like the cream puff interception he threw in the first quarter last Saturday. He was on the run, but had BJ wide open behind the CB for a likely TD catch and run. It seemed like a really out of character throw to float it 10 yards short. But it happens, I get it.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2018 01:45 PM by Willflop.)
10-15-2018 01:34 PM
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Ewglenn Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
(10-15-2018 01:34 PM)Willflop Wrote:  They are not awful, no. It's just that he's ranked 107 out of 130 in completion percentage through six games. However, he's tied for 9th in passing yards per game (tied with Mason Fine of NT). That's an interesting extreme on both ends, but I'll take the YPG.

I'm sure it's a combination of receiver drops, the OL, and higher competition overall, and not just him. It's scary to think where he'd be if he got it up to 62%+. I'm also basing it on anecdotal observations, like the cream puff interception he threw in the first quarter last Saturday. He was on the run, but had BJ wide open behind the CB for a likely TD catch and run. It seemed like a really out of character throw to float it 10 yards short. But it happens, I get it.

His completion percentage is deceiving. Not many teams in the country try to go deep like we do. We don’t do a ton dump offs so it reflects in the percentage. Cam Newton is a prime example. No one thinks this year is the best he has ever played but the scheme allows for easy completions. So naturally, statistically, he is having a great completion percentage year. By far the best he ever has had including his mvp year.
10-15-2018 02:11 PM
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Willflop Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
(10-15-2018 02:11 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  
(10-15-2018 01:34 PM)Willflop Wrote:  They are not awful, no. It's just that he's ranked 107 out of 130 in completion percentage through six games. However, he's tied for 9th in passing yards per game (tied with Mason Fine of NT). That's an interesting extreme on both ends, but I'll take the YPG.

I'm sure it's a combination of receiver drops, the OL, and higher competition overall, and not just him. It's scary to think where he'd be if he got it up to 62%+. I'm also basing it on anecdotal observations, like the cream puff interception he threw in the first quarter last Saturday. He was on the run, but had BJ wide open behind the CB for a likely TD catch and run. It seemed like a really out of character throw to float it 10 yards short. But it happens, I get it.

His completion percentage is deceiving. Not many teams in the country try to go deep like we do. We don’t do a ton dump offs so it reflects in the percentage. Cam Newton is a prime example. No one thinks this year is the best he has ever played but the scheme allows for easy completions. So naturally, statistically, he is having a great completion percentage year. By far the best he ever has had including his mvp year.

That was my first inclination as well, but when I looked at the data, I couldn't find a strong correlation between yards per catch YPC and completion rate. For example, the top 50 FBS qbs ranked by YPC average .62 completion and 14 YPC. Calvert is at .55 and a little over 14 YPC. His completion rate is an outlier. It's probably splitting hairs though, if the receivers had only caught 13 more balls than they did, through six games, he'd be up around .60
10-16-2018 05:11 AM
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Ewglenn Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
(10-16-2018 05:11 AM)Willflop Wrote:  
(10-15-2018 02:11 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  
(10-15-2018 01:34 PM)Willflop Wrote:  They are not awful, no. It's just that he's ranked 107 out of 130 in completion percentage through six games. However, he's tied for 9th in passing yards per game (tied with Mason Fine of NT). That's an interesting extreme on both ends, but I'll take the YPG.

I'm sure it's a combination of receiver drops, the OL, and higher competition overall, and not just him. It's scary to think where he'd be if he got it up to 62%+. I'm also basing it on anecdotal observations, like the cream puff interception he threw in the first quarter last Saturday. He was on the run, but had BJ wide open behind the CB for a likely TD catch and run. It seemed like a really out of character throw to float it 10 yards short. But it happens, I get it.

His completion percentage is deceiving. Not many teams in the country try to go deep like we do. We don’t do a ton dump offs so it reflects in the percentage. Cam Newton is a prime example. No one thinks this year is the best he has ever played but the scheme allows for easy completions. So naturally, statistically, he is having a great completion percentage year. By far the best he ever has had including his mvp year.

That was my first inclination as well, but when I looked at the data, I couldn't find a strong correlation between yards per catch YPC and completion rate. For example, the top 50 FBS qbs ranked by YPC average .62 completion and 14 YPC. Calvert is at .55 and a little over 14 YPC. His completion rate is an outlier. It's probably splitting hairs though, if the receivers had only caught 13 more balls than they did, through six games, he'd be up around .60

Those teams are also doing a lot of bubble routes, crossing routes and screens. What I’m saying is the majority of those 14 yds are through the air. Other qbs dump it off and their playmakers make the play.
10-16-2018 12:39 PM
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army56mike Offline
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RE: Idaho St. @ Liberty
Anyone catch the uniform reveal for Saturday? Red jersey, white pants, and blue helmet... but I couldn’t make out the decal. It looked like something new or different.
10-18-2018 11:05 PM
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