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(10-15-2018 10:14 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  Really both UCF and SMU were decimated by injuries last season, which really screwed the conference. We should have had 4 teams in the tournament at worst barring injuries.

Can't forget either how Temple blew every opportunity they had to make the tournament.

This year is going to come down to how the new frontcourt handles their expanded roles.
I'm curious about Williams development also. I feel like if he gets a consistent jump shot, his stay here will be a year short.

I think this is the most even the conference has ever been. That could end up being a detriment if the conference winner ends up with 6 losses in conference.

(10-15-2018 10:40 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I think this is the most even the conference has ever been. That could end up being a detriment if the conference winner ends up with 6 losses in conference.

Certainly a concern. But alternately, it could benefit the AAC if there are multiple contenders down the stretch, all with decent NCAA tournament credentials. If so, Aresco couldn't write a better script for this year's AAC football and basketball seasons going into TV contract negotiations.

(10-15-2018 10:40 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I think this is the most even the conference has ever been. That could end up being a detriment if the conference winner ends up with 6 losses in conference.

I don't think that would be too big of an issue as long as the conference improves considerably during OOC play this year.

(10-15-2018 10:13 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  It's really hard to gauge UCF considering the injuries they suffered last year. Everyone knows about Tacko Fall, but Aubrey Dawkins who averaged 7.0 and 6.5 ppg in his freshman and sophomore campaigns at Michigan was lost to injury before the season even started and probably would have been their #3 or #4 option. Plus BJ Taylor missed half the year, so you're talking about 3 of your best 4 players being out most of the season. If all stay healthy, UCF is a tournament team.

Dawkins is a stud and flashed elite offensive potential at Michigan (dropped 31 against Rutgers as a true frosh). I think he's the x-factor that could push UCF into the top tier from the middle of the pack this season.

I agree that a healthy UCF is going to be dangerous. They have depth at every position and should be a very good defensive team again.

(10-16-2018 08:50 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 10:40 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I think this is the most even the conference has ever been. That could end up being a detriment if the conference winner ends up with 6 losses in conference.

I don't think that would be too big of an issue as long as the conference improves considerably during OOC play this year.

This is what it boils down to, top to bottom we can't have teams losing their buy games and we need to pick up marquee wins to bolster our conference strength. Also, looking at other AAC teams' OOC schedules, it'd do wonders for our league perception if we could get a tie-in with another reputable conference for OOC games like the B1G/AAC challenge.. I know it's been talked about previously on this board but some of these OOC schedules are flat out bad.

Temple losing to LaSalle and George Washington
USF losing to Morgan St., Elon, App State, and FIU
ECU losing to Radford, Central Connecticut State, Rutgers, NC A&T, Charlotte, UNCW to OT
Tulsa losing to Lamar and Illinois St (twice)
Tulane losing to Georgia State (Tulane actually looked relatively good OOC besides that)
Memphis lost to UAB and a bad Louisville team while not having a great OOC schedule
SMU 3 games stretch of losing to Northern Iowa, then beating #2 Arizona (who turned out to be a bit overrated), only to lose to WKU

UCF and UCONN had a good number of marquee games but lost most of them

I know good teams lose buy games and losses happen but when your OOC schedule strength is bad, you need to get every win you can and bad losses are an anchor to our conference perception. When you get the chance to play a Tier 1 or Tier 2 team you need those wins.

(10-16-2018 09:12 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 08:50 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 10:40 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I think this is the most even the conference has ever been. That could end up being a detriment if the conference winner ends up with 6 losses in conference.

I don't think that would be too big of an issue as long as the conference improves considerably during OOC play this year.

This is what it boils down to, top to bottom we can't have teams losing their buy games and we need to pick up marquee wins to bolster our conference strength. Also, looking at other AAC teams' OOC schedules, it'd do wonders for our league perception if we could get a tie-in with another reputable conference for OOC games like the B1G/AAC challenge.. I know it's been talked about previously on this board but some of these OOC schedules are flat out bad.

Temple losing to LaSalle and George Washington
USF losing to Morgan St., Elon, App State, and FIU
ECU losing to Radford, Central Connecticut State, Rutgers, NC A&T, Charlotte, UNCW to OT
Tulsa losing to Lamar and Illinois St (twice)
Tulane losing to Georgia State (Tulane actually looked relatively good OOC besides that)
Memphis lost to UAB and a bad Louisville team while not having a great OOC schedule
SMU 3 games stretch of losing to Northern Iowa, then beating #2 Arizona (who turned out to be a bit overrated), only to lose to WKU

UCF and UCONN had a good number of marquee games but lost most of them

I know good teams lose buy games and losses happen but when your OOC schedule strength is bad, you need to get every win you can and bad losses are an anchor to our conference perception. When you get the chance to play a Tier 1 or Tier 2 team you need those wins.

Bolded, I hope Aresco is working on this. Doesn't the new Big East have a tie-in such as this with the B1G? To my knowledge the Pac 12 does not participate in a made for TV "conference challenge" as the other P5's do. Given its issues with visibility east of the Rockies, the AAC would provide headliner, pre-conference games in the central and eastern time zones. "Major brand" AAC teams (Cincy, UCONN, Houston, Memphis) provide quality opponents in large media markets for ESPN. And the AAC benefits from more guaranteed national interest in matchups with P5 opponents each season of the contract.

Maybe ESPN is resisting right now for fear of driving up the value of the AAC prior to the new TV contract.

(10-16-2018 10:11 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 09:12 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 08:50 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 10:40 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I think this is the most even the conference has ever been. That could end up being a detriment if the conference winner ends up with 6 losses in conference.

I don't think that would be too big of an issue as long as the conference improves considerably during OOC play this year.

This is what it boils down to, top to bottom we can't have teams losing their buy games and we need to pick up marquee wins to bolster our conference strength. Also, looking at other AAC teams' OOC schedules, it'd do wonders for our league perception if we could get a tie-in with another reputable conference for OOC games like the B1G/AAC challenge.. I know it's been talked about previously on this board but some of these OOC schedules are flat out bad.

Temple losing to LaSalle and George Washington
USF losing to Morgan St., Elon, App State, and FIU
ECU losing to Radford, Central Connecticut State, Rutgers, NC A&T, Charlotte, UNCW to OT
Tulsa losing to Lamar and Illinois St (twice)
Tulane losing to Georgia State (Tulane actually looked relatively good OOC besides that)
Memphis lost to UAB and a bad Louisville team while not having a great OOC schedule
SMU 3 games stretch of losing to Northern Iowa, then beating #2 Arizona (who turned out to be a bit overrated), only to lose to WKU

UCF and UCONN had a good number of marquee games but lost most of them

I know good teams lose buy games and losses happen but when your OOC schedule strength is bad, you need to get every win you can and bad losses are an anchor to our conference perception. When you get the chance to play a Tier 1 or Tier 2 team you need those wins.

Bolded, I hope Aresco is working on this. Doesn't the new Big East have a tie-in such as this with the B1G? To my knowledge the Pac 12 does not participate in a made for TV "conference challenge" as the other P5's do. Given its issues with visibility east of the Rockies, the AAC would provide headliner, pre-conference games in the central and eastern time zones. "Major brand" AAC teams (Cincy, UCONN, Houston, Memphis) provide quality opponents in large media markets for ESPN. And the AAC benefits from more guaranteed national interest in matchups with P5 opponents each season of the contract.

Maybe ESPN is resisting right now for fear of driving up the value of the AAC prior to the new TV contract.

I know it was just announced yesterday that the Big East and Big 12 have agreed to a multi-year "challenge". Maybe I'm biased but most years the quality of the Pac-12 and AAC seems to be relatively equal.. our biggest problem is middle of the conference and bottom feeders not rising up.

I'm sorry. I just don't see UCF as the best team in this conference.

Are we sure they knew that this was the basketball poll?

(10-16-2018 11:12 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  I'm sorry. I just don't see UCF as the best team in this conference.

Are we sure they knew that this was the basketball poll?

I would put them no worse than #3 for sure. No team in the conference has a better trio of returning players than Taylor, Fall, and Dawkins. I won't be shocked at all if they win the league considering UC, Houston, and Wichita are all going to take a step back and Memphis and UConn are at least a year away from being tournament teams.

(10-16-2018 11:12 AM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  I'm sorry. I just don't see UCF as the best team in this conference.

Are we sure they knew that this was the basketball poll?

probably won’t finish top three. combined 7-11 road league record on the road with all their wins coming against bottom level teams. Need to be no worse than 5-4 on the road to finish top three better to win it. I expect them to be 3-6 on the road and 10-8 overall for NIT bid. More difficult schedule catches up to them.

A lot of you are way underestimating UCF. Amount of games their 3 best players appeared in last year:

BJ Taylor - 16
Tacko Fall - 16
Aubrey Dawkins - 0

There's a reason the coaches voted them #1.

(10-16-2018 12:10 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  A lot of you are way underestimating UCF. Amount of games their 3 best players appeared in last year:

BJ Taylor - 16
Tacko Fall - 16
Aubrey Dawkins - 0

There's a reason the coaches voted them #1.

Sorry, I am not going to get excited over a team that has never done anything of note.. Their top three players have an injury history. I care about track records.

UC, Houston, Wichita, and Uconn all have coaches with a track record of making the NCAA tournament. I will take those four over UCF this year.