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Access Bowl Top 10 Week 6
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #241
RE: Access Bowl Top 10 Week 6
(10-26-2018 03:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(10-26-2018 01:32 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(10-26-2018 11:19 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(10-25-2018 10:54 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  
(10-25-2018 10:18 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Who have they beaten other than App St.

Who did Appy beat to get ranked? If GS wins the next two (@ ULM, vs Troy) to get to 9-1 then I think the possibility of #25 is there.

Who did UCF beat to get ranked? Who did USF beat to get ranked?
Who did Cincy beat to get ranked?

USF beat Georgia Tech, and last time I checked, GT was running Virginia Tech out of the stadium.

You mean the very same team that 2-6 ODU beat by 14? The same ODU that lost by 42 to Liberty?

If you are hanging your hat on a team that beat VT, you are losing the argument

Say what you will but they're still the favorite to win the ACC Coastal division.
10-26-2018 04:11 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #242
RE: Access Bowl Top 10 Week 6
(10-26-2018 04:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bottom line is, almost all G5 play very soft schedules, so overall record is almost always going to do decide the Access spot. Quibbling about whether Georgia Tech is a tougher opponent than San Diego State is just that, a quibble.

Right now, the spot is UCF/USF to lose, they control their destiny with it.

Everyone else needs help of some kind. 07-coffee3

Houston needs no help either.... If they win out, they'll be in. And frankly Cincy probably controls their own destiny as well(only way they don't is if Temple also won out). If they are 12-1 they're in...
10-26-2018 05:16 PM
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usffan Offline
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Post: #243
RE: Access Bowl Top 10 Week 6
(10-26-2018 02:58 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  The Access Bowl selection for the G5 is down to 10 teams...teams with 1 loss or better. We know a two-loss Group of Five team is not even in the conversation any more.

In my opinion, this is where we're at as far as favorites to select from:

1. #10 UCF (7-0)
2. #21 USF (7-0)
3. Houston (6-1)
4. Cincinnati (6-1)
5. Fresno State (6-1)
6. San Diego State (6-1)
7. Utah State (6-1)
8. Georgia Southern (7-1)
9. Buffalo (7-1)
10. UAB (6-1)

I think you're on the right track, though I disagree that it's down to these 10 teams. It's not impossible that no G5 conference champion will have less than 2 losses - though I think that's unlikely. That will create some ugly campaigning...

But let's assume you're correct - that we're down to these ten teams. FPI (http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...eamratings) would rank them thusly:

1 - Fresno State
2 - UCF
3 - Utah State
4 - Houston
5 - Cincinnati
6 - USF
7 - UAB
8 - Georgia Southern
9 - San Diego State
10 - Buffalo

And if you run all of these teams through the CFB Analytics predictor (https://www.cfbanalytics.com/predictions), they would predict the following records at the end of the season before the conference championship games (ranked by least number of losses):

1 - UCF (11-0)
T2 - Houston (11-1)
T2 - Fresno State (11-1)
T2 - Utah State (11-1)
T2 - Georgia Southern (11-1)
T6 - Cincinnati (10-2)
T6 - UAB (10-2)
T6 - Buffalo (10-2)
9 - USF (8-4)
10 - San Diego State (7-5)

So if (big if) all of this comes to pass, I think it would be safe to argue that the only two options would be the winner of the AAC or the MWC. I think it's clear that an undefeated AAC champion in UCF would get the nod, so they have to be the top ranked team. I think a compelling case could be made that beating that undefeated team (and the boost that would come from it) would likely make Houston the pick if they won over an MWC champ, but can understand arguments to the contrary. So I think I would argue that, as of TODAY, the rankings (based on probability of getting the bid) are:

1 - UCF
2 - Houston
3 - Fresno State
4 - Utah State
5 - Georgia Southern
6 - UAB
7 - Buffalo
8 - Cincinnati
9 - USF
10 - San Diego State

Ready for the replies...

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USFFan
10-26-2018 06:01 PM
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