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Potomac Offline
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Post: #61
RE: FCS Rankings
Stony Brook is definitely not as good as last year's team. Their drubbing to Towson proved that. They were the #2 CAA team last year and they're clearly not going to be #2 this year.
10-11-2018 08:14 AM
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DoubleDogDare Offline
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Post: #62
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 08:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Stony Brook is definitely not as good as last year's team. Their drubbing to Towson proved that. They were the #2 CAA team last year and they're clearly not going to be #2 this year.

Just a point to clarify; just cause they were #2 last year and are not this year, doesn't mean they have gotten worse. Towson appears to be much improved from last year as their win total is just 1 game shy with half a season to play.
10-11-2018 08:35 AM
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DoubleDogDare Offline
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Post: #63
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 07:31 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 07:00 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 06:18 AM)#YEEHAWDUKES Wrote:  If Elon losses once and JMU wins out do you put JMU ahead of them?

For polls, yes. Not saying it's fair, but late losses knock teams down. Voters aren't smart enough to remember where the other loss came from.

For seeding, I think it depends on the loss. If it's a bad loss like Richmond or, to a lesser extent, Maine, I think we jump them.

Lets also remember Elon was a massive underdog who pulled off the miracle win. Most of us don't believe they would win a second time, and if they did, would be a hell of a dogfight. This is obvious to others too.

This is similar to ODU beating VT, and actually ODU looked better that game. VT was still ranked well above ODU afterward. With another loss, VT dropped to just ORV, but is still above ODU in rankings. Last year after SDSU beat NDSU, NDSU still remained ranked a slot above them.

Point is, a single "miracle" win rarely places one team above another in rankings or polls. Was actually slightly surprised it happened in our case, but they do deserve it if they win out. If they drop a game, then we should be ranked higher. We lost the game (barely, making tons of mistakes) as much as they won it.

No it isn't. ODU hasn't won a single other game. Elon is a top 10 team. The 38 point spread, which I'm assuming why you are equating the two games, was based on JMU beating 3 bad teams by 50+ and well on the way to beating NSU by 50+ too. ODU over VT could be the FBS upset of the year. Elon beating JMU will not be the FCS upset of the year. Against the spread, sure it might be the biggest point upset, but a loss to another playoff bound team, possibly top 5 team, is not the same as a no win team beating a ranked opponent.

I'm not looking it up but I doubt there has ever been a 1-4 team ranked above a 3-1 team they beat.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018 08:44 AM by DoubleDogDare.)
10-11-2018 08:40 AM
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Wear Purple Offline
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Post: #64
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 08:35 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 08:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Stony Brook is definitely not as good as last year's team. Their drubbing to Towson proved that. They were the #2 CAA team last year and they're clearly not going to be #2 this year.

Just a point to clarify; just cause they were #2 last year and are not this year, doesn't mean they have gotten worse. Towson appears to be much improved from last year as their win total is just 1 game shy with half a season to play.

I think the recent run the Dukes have been on in the CAA has raised and continues to raise the bar to the rest of the CAA. The CAA has always been one of the most competitive D1AA FB conferences and its depth is unrivaled (IMO). It will take some programs a few years to catch up and maybe some never will invest enough to compete. Certainly, the folks at W&M (new coach search upcoming) and Bitchmond have to take a hard look at their levels of investment and interest in competing for titles these days. They really are 50+ points behind the Dukes at the moment.
10-11-2018 08:40 AM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #65
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 08:35 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 08:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Stony Brook is definitely not as good as last year's team. Their drubbing to Towson proved that. They were the #2 CAA team last year and they're clearly not going to be #2 this year.

Just a point to clarify; just cause they were #2 last year and are not this year, doesn't mean they have gotten worse. Towson appears to be much improved from last year as their win total is just 1 game shy with half a season to play.

Yes and no. I think if you lose more games, you're 95% likely not as good as a previous season. Other teams have improved, but the SB team of last year wouldn't have been beaten like a drum and turn the ball over 10,000 times like they did last week. They looked awful.
10-11-2018 08:42 AM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #66
RE: FCS Rankings
I wish people would stop referencing that garbage point spread. It was complete nonsense and you know it. The real spread was probably 20 points or less. That was right around where Massey and Sagarin had it.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018 08:46 AM by Potomac.)
10-11-2018 08:45 AM
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DoubleDogDare Offline
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Post: #67
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 08:42 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 08:35 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 08:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Stony Brook is definitely not as good as last year's team. Their drubbing to Towson proved that. They were the #2 CAA team last year and they're clearly not going to be #2 this year.

Just a point to clarify; just cause they were #2 last year and are not this year, doesn't mean they have gotten worse. Towson appears to be much improved from last year as their win total is just 1 game shy with half a season to play.

Yes and no. I think if you lose more games, you're 95% likely not as good as a previous season. Other teams have improved, but the SB team of last year wouldn't have been beaten like a drum and turn the ball over 10,000 times like they did last week. They looked awful.

Yes, just yes. Last year JMU was 6-0 at this point. This year we are 4-2. Stony Brook was 4-2 and are currently 4-2. So by your argument, which I think is 'because SB standing (driven by record) is worse, they are worse' then JUMU must be wayyyy worse than last year with having two more losses.
10-11-2018 08:52 AM
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DoubleDogDare Offline
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Post: #68
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 08:45 AM)Potomac Wrote:  I wish people would stop referencing that garbage point spread. It was complete nonsense and you know it. The real spread was probably 20 points or less. That was right around where Massey and Sagarin had it.

Agree. Completely agreed. Throw out the spread. A top 10 team beat a top 2 team. Assuming both teams continue to do what they have done thus far, nobody will consider the Elon games a bad loss. The highest spread this weekend in FBS is the 29.5 points that #3 OSU is giving a 3-2 team with two straight losses.
10-11-2018 08:58 AM
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JMU_Newbill Offline
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Post: #69
RE: FCS Rankings
Betting lines on games like JMU or really any FCS school are garbage. A single/modest bet can move the line on a JMU game significantly because let's face it, there's just not a whole lot of action.
10-11-2018 09:05 AM
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Wear Purple Offline
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Post: #70
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 09:05 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Betting lines on games like JMU or really any FCS school are garbage. A single/modest bet can move the line on a JMU game significantly because let's face it, there's just not a whole lot of action.

^^^Amen!^^^

I laugh aloud whenever I read someone post that a line involving a D1AA team has moved a point or half point followed by "this means some major money is riding on this game". Yeah, somebody placed a bet for 5 bucks.

04-cheers
10-11-2018 09:09 AM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #71
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 08:52 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  Yes, just yes. Last year JMU was 6-0 at this point. This year we are 4-2. Stony Brook was 4-2 and are currently 4-2. So by your argument, which I think is 'because SB standing (driven by record) is worse, they are worse' then JUMU must be wayyyy worse than last year with having two more losses.

Going to have to agree to disagree. I've seen enough of SB to know they're a clear drop off from last year. The final record will prove I'm right too. I'll admit if I'm wrong but I know they'll be in the middle of the CAA pack.

Also, I didn't say it, but yeah, if we're 9-2 at best, I'd say JMU isn't as good as last year. No one wants to say it out loud but it's kind of obvious after we let Elon beat us. I hope JMU lifts the trophy at the end of the year and prove us all wrong.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018 09:23 AM by Potomac.)
10-11-2018 09:22 AM
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olddawg Offline
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Post: #72
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 09:09 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 09:05 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Betting lines on games like JMU or really any FCS school are garbage. A single/modest bet can move the line on a JMU game significantly because let's face it, there's just not a whole lot of action.

^^^Amen!^^^

I laugh aloud whenever I read someone post that a line involving a D1AA team has moved a point or half point followed by "this means some major money is riding on this game". Yeah, somebody placed a bet for 5 bucks.

04-cheers

Eh....I think about 100% of those comments were tongue in cheek.
10-11-2018 09:43 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #73
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 09:22 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 08:52 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  Yes, just yes. Last year JMU was 6-0 at this point. This year we are 4-2. Stony Brook was 4-2 and are currently 4-2. So by your argument, which I think is 'because SB standing (driven by record) is worse, they are worse' then JUMU must be wayyyy worse than last year with having two more losses.

Going to have to agree to disagree. I've seen enough of SB to know they're a clear drop off from last year. The final record will prove I'm right too. I'll admit if I'm wrong but I know they'll be in the middle of the CAA pack.

Also, I didn't say it, but yeah, if we're 9-2 at best, I'd say JMU isn't as good as last year. No one wants to say it out loud but it's kind of obvious after we let Elon beat us. I hope JMU lifts the trophy at the end of the year and prove us all wrong.

At the moment, in terms of execution, this is a fair assessment.

However, this team is absolutely loaded with talent, and the coaches will continue to work on improving execution. Every (well coached) team ends the season playing better than they started, and this one, imo, has the potential to be one of the best we've seen by end of this year. It took a lot of mistakes, etc for us to lose a game to a top 10 team. We would have beaten ECU again this year, NC St is different territory, and we were very competitive there.

Next year, with even more experience, JMU could be lights out good. I think we'll have a real shot to take down WVU, and that would be huge.
10-11-2018 09:59 AM
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DoubleDogDare Offline
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Post: #74
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-11-2018 09:22 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-11-2018 08:52 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  Yes, just yes. Last year JMU was 6-0 at this point. This year we are 4-2. Stony Brook was 4-2 and are currently 4-2. So by your argument, which I think is 'because SB standing (driven by record) is worse, they are worse' then JUMU must be wayyyy worse than last year with having two more losses.

Going to have to agree to disagree. I've seen enough of SB to know they're a clear drop off from last year. The final record will prove I'm right too. I'll admit if I'm wrong but I know they'll be in the middle of the CAA pack.

Also, I didn't say it, but yeah, if we're 9-2 at best, I'd say JMU isn't as good as last year. No one wants to say it out loud but it's kind of obvious after we let Elon beat us. I hope JMU lifts the trophy at the end of the year and prove us all wrong.

I don't disagree that they don't look as good as last year. I disagree that them dropping from #2 in CAA or their record being the same is definitive proof or even sounding reasoning for proving as such, which was my only point. 04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018 01:06 PM by DoubleDogDare.)
10-11-2018 12:25 PM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #75
RE: FCS Rankings
Will be interesting to see this ranking updated on Monday.

College Sports Madness - games thru 10/8:
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16656
10-15-2018 01:29 AM
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JMUrcc06 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: FCS Rankings
(10-10-2018 10:34 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(10-10-2018 11:59 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-10-2018 11:43 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Its possible, but very unlikely, to get the #2 by winning out. I think that ship has sailed. When was the last time a 9 win team got a top 2 seed?

Win out, and I think JMU falls somewhere between #3 and #6, depending on how things fall with Elon, and nationally..

Teams ahead of us right now based on a combination of Stats and Coaches polls (as terrible as those polls are):

Team - Projected Future SOS (Massey)
NDSU - 6th
Elon - 8th
SDSU - 9th
JMU - 16th
EWU - 18th
Wofford - 60th
JSU - 69th
KSU - 81st

Just on SOS alone, we don't have to worry about Wofford, JSU or KSU in a "everyone wins out" scenario. It's just pathetic the polls even slotted them ahead of us. Additionally, JSU and KSU play each other, so obviously one is guaranteed to not win out.

We SHOULD be ahead of EWU if they win out based on the SOS, but they'd be big sky champs and undefeated against FCS. The committee wouldn't be able to lay off of them in that situation.

There's no way we're seeded ahead of NDSU, Elon or SDSU if they all win out. We need each of those true top four to lose while we keep winning. In the unlikely event everyone but NDSU losses at least one and we win out, we could get a 2, or 3 at worst.

If we drop another, we're guaranteed to be playing on Thanksgiving weekend.
If Wofford wins out (I don’t think they will) they would be 10-0/8-0 vs I-AA. I think they would be put ahead of JMU’s 9-1/7-1.

Even if SDSU won out, I think the committee would put the #1 CAA team ahead of the #2 MVFC...

Bottom line, besides winning out, need EWU, Elon, and Wofford to lose. I dont see KSU or JSU losing until they play each other.

your wish is granted! [Image: 02-13-banana.gif]
10-15-2018 07:11 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #77
RE: FCS Rankings
Slot voting puts us at #4 Stats and #5 coaches poll. Very predictable.
Kennesaw at #2/#3, what a joke.

The popular polls really don’t consider schedule strength.
Thank goodness the committee doesn’t use these polls.
10-15-2018 12:23 PM
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#YEEHAWDUKES Offline
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RE: FCS Rankings
Coaches poll is so bad. Jax State? Seriously?
10-15-2018 12:35 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #79
RE: FCS Rankings
Records excluding Div II wins/I-A losses:
-NDSU 6-0/3-0
-Colgate 6-0/3-0 (@ Furman was cancelled. They'll lose @ Army, be looked at as 9-0, will be considered for the #8 seed).
-Kennesaw 5-0/2-0 (+ Div II win, G5 loss) (end with JSU)
-UC Davis 5-0/3-0 (Have G5 win & P5 loss) (@ Cal Poly, @ MT, NAU, @ EWU, Sac St)
-ETSU 5-0/4-0 (+ Div II win, P5 loss) (@ Wofford, WCU, @ Mercer, Samford)
-McNeese 5-0/4-0 (+P5 loss) (they'll lose 1 of their last 5 Softland games, they've been barely beating some teams).
-TU 5-0/3-0 (+P5 loss) (@ Albany, @ UD, Maine, @ Elon, JMU- OUCH)
-JMU 5-1/3-1 (+P5 loss)
-ILSU 5-1/2-1 (Have G5 win) (@ NDSU on Sat). Only team currently with a I-AA loss that could jump JMU. Last chance for a MVFC to jump NDSU. If ILSU pulled the upset this Sat and & won out, they would be 10-1/7-1 with a G5 win, with head to head over a 10-1/7-1 NDSU.
-SDSU 4-1/2-1 (Only 10 games, @ Iowa St cancelled). Next 2 weeks @ UNI, @ ILSU.
IF SDSU wins out don't see the committee putting them ahead of JMU. Both teams would be looked at as 9-1/7-1..

I said last week week that the ship had sailed on JMU winning out & getting the #2 seed. I stand corrected. With Elon, EWU, and Wofford all losing last weekend, esp EWU, I think the #2 seed is still in play.

ILSU @ NDSU this weekend is HUGE.

2 predictions:
-After 5 more weeks of football, in 34 days a 9-2/7-1 JMU will be a top 4 seed.
-The next 4 weeks people on here will continue to get their knickers in a bunch over these worthless polls (STATS, Coaches), which the committee doesn't set the playoff field by.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2018 05:10 PM by BDKJMU.)
10-15-2018 02:46 PM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #80
RE: FCS Rankings
I think if JMU wins out, we'll still be a 2 seed. I don't see SDSU winning out. Both NDSU and Indiana State showed how they can be beat, even if the Sycamores didn't finish the job. Both of the next two games are toss-ups for SDSU and both on the road.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2018 02:53 PM by Potomac.)
10-15-2018 02:51 PM
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