(11-12-2019 11:45 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(11-12-2019 09:58 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  Some interesting power ratings that are using this season's numbers and no slot voting.

https://twitter.com/philsteele042/status...04288?s=20

Phil Steele
@philsteele042
·
Oct 31
My Avg Game Grades for FCS
1 James Madison 84.96
2 North Dakota St 83.7
3 Sacramento St 82.6
4 South Dakota St 78.8
5 Montana 78.6
6 Northern Iowa 75.1
7 Weber St 73.5
8 SE Louisiana 72.7
9 Southern Illinois 71.9
10 N Carolina A&T 71.7
11 Furman 71.5
12 Villanova 71.1

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...20421?s=20
Bill Connelly
@ESPN_BillC
·
14h
Yeah, it's pretty far ahead of everyone else (and the MVC's worse than normal).

FCS Conference Rankings by Avg SP+:
1 CAA (10.8)
2 MVC (6.9)
3 Big Sky (6.7)
4 Ivy (6.6)
5 OVC (3.0)

(6-13: S'land, Southern, SWAC, Patriot, Big South, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer)

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...95328?s=20

Not sure about Steele's love for Sac St. They are a very good team, but Weber went into their house and dominated them. Combine that w/ similar resumes and the fact that Weber plays in a tougher conference and I find their respective positions puzzling.

Check the date. I believe this was before they played each other. He hasn't posted a newer one that I know of.

(11-12-2019 11:45 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(11-12-2019 09:58 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  Some interesting power ratings that are using this season's numbers and no slot voting.

https://twitter.com/philsteele042/status...04288?s=20

Phil Steele
@philsteele042
·
Oct 31
My Avg Game Grades for FCS
1 James Madison 84.96
2 North Dakota St 83.7
3 Sacramento St 82.6
4 South Dakota St 78.8
5 Montana 78.6
6 Northern Iowa 75.1
7 Weber St 73.5
8 SE Louisiana 72.7
9 Southern Illinois 71.9
10 N Carolina A&T 71.7
11 Furman 71.5
12 Villanova 71.1

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...20421?s=20
Bill Connelly
@ESPN_BillC
·
14h
Yeah, it's pretty far ahead of everyone else (and the MVC's worse than normal).

FCS Conference Rankings by Avg SP+:
1 CAA (10.8)
2 MVC (6.9)
3 Big Sky (6.7)
4 Ivy (6.6)
5 OVC (3.0)

(6-13: S'land, Southern, SWAC, Patriot, Big South, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer)

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...95328?s=20

Not sure about Steele's love for Sac St. They are a very good team, but Weber went into their house and dominated them. Combine that w/ similar resumes and the fact that Weber plays in a tougher conference and I find their respective positions puzzling.

They are both in the Big Sky

Thanks FishingDuke- I amended my post. Not sure what conference I was thinking of- maybe the old Great West from years ago.

(11-12-2019 11:22 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 05:31 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Lafayette looks positioned to win the Patriot League autobid at 5-7 overall, if they can get past Lehigh (4-5) and Colgate (3-8). Crazy.

Have we ever had LOSING record teams (below .500) in the bracket before? More evidence 24 teams is really too many.

Don't disagree 24 is too many, but as long as there are autobids then you could have a losing record team in the field. If they are selecting losing teams as at large then you'd have a better point.

I get why some people like it, but the last expansion including the autobids was a mistake imo. Some of those conferences don't deserve an autobid, at least not without an added caveat along the lines of autobids "must be above .500 w/l ratio" or "must have at least 6 fcs wins"

Any team below .500 in Div I games doesn't belong in the field, I don't care who they played, or what conference title they have. This is almost getting worse than bowl games.

(11-11-2019 05:31 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Lafayette looks positioned to win the Patriot League autobid at 5-7 overall, if they can get past Lehigh (4-5) and Colgate (3-8). Crazy.

Have we ever had LOSING record teams (below .500) in the bracket before? More evidence 24 teams is really too many.

What would reducing the # of teams do. This will be the one and only autobid from the Patriot league in this example. You are gonna penalize them for scheduling tough out of conference games, but then taking care of business in their conference.....come on man.

(11-12-2019 09:58 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  Some interesting power ratings that are using this season's numbers and no slot voting.

https://twitter.com/philsteele042/status...04288?s=20

Phil Steele
@philsteele042
·
Oct 31
My Avg Game Grades for FCS
1 James Madison 84.96
2 North Dakota St 83.7
3 Sacramento St 82.6
4 South Dakota St 78.8
5 Montana 78.6
6 Northern Iowa 75.1
7 Weber St 73.5
8 SE Louisiana 72.7
9 Southern Illinois 71.9
10 N Carolina A&T 71.7
11 Furman 71.5
12 Villanova 71.1

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...20421?s=20
Bill Connelly
@ESPN_BillC
·
14h
Yeah, it's pretty far ahead of everyone else (and the MVC's worse than normal).

FCS Conference Rankings by Avg SP+:
1 CAA (10.8)
2 MVC (6.9)
3 Big Sky (6.7)
4 Ivy (6.6)
5 OVC (3.0)

(6-13: S'land, Southern, SWAC, Patriot, Big South, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer)

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...95328?s=20

Some of the newer algorithms/metrics like Connelly's are incorporating things like "efficiency" along the lines of success/yards per play on offense and defense. They also sometimes discount or weight things based on whether or not the game is effectively over (less weight when there are two minutes left and you are winning or losing by 30 points).

Conceptually I like that better than just looking at score and opponent. Not sure if they are outperforming the older systems like Sag that have around a 75% prediction success rate. I think in time they will be better, as the old systems were more crude in their approach.