RE: Honest Question
I'd have to dive into some stats to prove I'm really right (I watch a lot more NFL than college), but I think RBBC is the way to go and what most successful teams are doing.
I clicked on a few top level box scores at random (clicked on close games because you can't judge blowout reps):
In the LSU/Florida game this week, both teams split carries. LSU had a back with 15 carries and another with 13. Florida had one with 17 and another with 14.
In the Texas/OU game, both teams used their QBs but had a rushing split also. Texas had an RB with 13, and RB with 6, and QB had 19. Oklahoma had 11 from their QB, 9 from an RB, 8 from an RB, and 3 from an RB (mentioned the guy with 3 because he had the highest YPC).
Notre Dame bucked the trend. Lead back had 17 carries at 10 YPC (buoyed by a 97 yard run, but still a solid 5 YPC if you wipe that one out - and I always hate when people wipe statistical outliers anyway because big plays are the best plays, win games, and shouldn't be ignored). Tech had an RB with 9, and RB with 6, and QB with 11 (two of those were sacks because sacks count as rushes in college which is silly to me. I looked up the sacks because QB only had 11 carries for 16 yards, so maybe Tech shoulda done something different. But we shouldn't copy gameplan from a team that lost to ODU and is scared to play us anyway).
WVU had 11 carries from an RB and 10 from another one. Kansas split their carries 12 and 6.
Kentucky and A&M both employed the workhorse approach (if you can call it that based on these attempts). Kentucky had RB with 13, RB with 3, and QB with 14 (4 of those were sacks, and with the QB carries we can't really say how many of them were designed and how many were aborted pass plays without watching the game. Hunch tells me due to high sack numbers and low RB YPC maybe Kentucky line was getting outplayed.) A&M used the truest workhorse approach of the 5 randomly selected close games I clicked on -- lead RB had 24 carries for 138. Next RB had 4 carries. QB registered 16 carries (6 of those were sacks). (FWIW, the team ran 75 plays and 29 were QB pass attempts and 16 plays ended up scored as 16 QB rushes; so their lead RB and QB accounted for 69 of their 75 touches. They won but only scored 14 in regulation. You could either say the defenses won the battles in this game, or maybe the offenses should have switched it up a bit. This was probably an interesting game to watch.)
I did this stat dive out of curiosity because it feels to me like most teams rotate backs. And, while sometimes the biggest edges are gained by going outside the box, I do think these staffs get paid a lot of $$$ to scheme, so they must know something about why they're making the right call. Also, at FCS level, the plan is to be ready for a 15 game season, so I don't think it hurts to limit touches for that reason. (It worked well enough with Hines/Fenner/Banks/Rascati once upon a time.)
My gut is inclined to think our coaches are doing it the right way, but your line of questioning makes a lot of sense. My summary opinions are:
1. Elon probably has a different situation than us. Their lead RB is likely head and shoulders better than everyone else. (Just a guess.)
2. When it's crunch time of the season, the philosophy might change. Marshall is probably our best bruiser, Sharp can get it done in pass game (though honestly I think all our guys can pass block which is most important aspect of being reliable out there), and Johnson may be relegated to the change of pace role (absolutely love Cardon based on everything we know about him as a player and team member over the years, but my honest, cold-hearted, football opinion is I want the ball in Marshall's hands more than his if the season depends on gaining 3 yards on one play). I know every game counts at college level, but in FCS it's more do-or-die in the playoffs. And maybe they'd have gone to the "feed Marshall" direction if run game were clicking better Saturday.
3. I think a deep dive into stats would bear out that the whole "building momentum" by getting a ton of carries is more of a fan theory than a coach philosophy. I hear fans mention this more than coaches, and I think if you look at NFL teams, their RB philosophy is based on talent more than trying to make a guy perform better by getting carries. (Like New England on Thursday didn't just run Michel into the ground; they constantly switched him and White and it wasn't detrimental to either guy. Saints switched a lot more when Ingram was healthy --- the fantasy community thought somebody else might benefit while he was suspended, but coaches kinda just went, "Nah, we're good with Kamara" when he was head and shoulders best guy. Let's see what they do with tonight.) My opinion is that we're doing it right based on the talent we have.
Thanks for bringing up a way more interesting topic than uniforms btw.
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2018 06:53 AM by JMUska.)
|