(10-07-2018 05:19 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I don't often defend DavidSt, but today's the day.

For a list like this, you want to be over-inclusive. And at this point in the season, you still include the two-loss teams. People are trashing Boise State's inclusion, but nobody's objecting to including the rest of the 2-loss teams, whose Access Bowl dreams are at least as remote as Boise's at this point. Sure, there's a 99% chance the 2018 Access Bowl team has 1 loss or fewer right now, but 99% is not 100%.

Towards the end of the season, it will be time to drop most of the remaining two-loss teams. Until then, they'll eliminate themselves week by week, as they stop being two-loss teams.

The contender list will include teams with three losses the next time Boise State loses.

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:26 PM)solohawks Wrote:  The MWC champ is still in the running. A 1 loss Utah St v a 1 loss MWC west champ would be in great shape should the AAC East champion drop the ball in the AAC championship game.

I think App St should be in the running too but their chances of leapfrogging AAC and MWC champ are low

Their problem is Houston could be the opponent with 1 loss as well. If it's Houston with 1 loss vs East champ with 0-1 loss, there's absolutely positively nothing any one in any other G5 conference can do about it.

Houston's only lost was to Texas Tech who knocked off Oklahoma State. Houston's chances are as slim as Boise State's. AAC west looks even weaker than the AAC East. Navy got knocked off by Air Force yesterday.

Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

(10-07-2018 07:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:26 PM)solohawks Wrote:  The MWC champ is still in the running. A 1 loss Utah St v a 1 loss MWC west champ would be in great shape should the AAC East champion drop the ball in the AAC championship game.

I think App St should be in the running too but their chances of leapfrogging AAC and MWC champ are low

Their problem is Houston could be the opponent with 1 loss as well. If it's Houston with 1 loss vs East champ with 0-1 loss, there's absolutely positively nothing any one in any other G5 conference can do about it.

A 1 loss Hawaii won't leapfrog a 1 loss Houston. But it would still be fun to point out that they went 2-0 vs mutual competition (Rice, Navy).

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:26 PM)solohawks Wrote:  The MWC champ is still in the running. A 1 loss Utah St v a 1 loss MWC west champ would be in great shape should the AAC East champion drop the ball in the AAC championship game.

I think App St should be in the running too but their chances of leapfrogging AAC and MWC champ are low

Their problem is Houston could be the opponent with 1 loss as well. If it's Houston with 1 loss vs East champ with 0-1 loss, there's absolutely positively nothing any one in any other G5 conference can do about it.

Houston's only lost was to Texas Tech who knocked off Oklahoma State. Houston's chances are as slim as Boise State's. AAC west looks even weaker than the AAC East. Navy got knocked off by Air Force yesterday.

Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

We also have on the @Memphis, Temple, @ECU, and @Navy. Our schedule is no slouch.

(10-07-2018 10:14 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Their problem is Houston could be the opponent with 1 loss as well. If it's Houston with 1 loss vs East champ with 0-1 loss, there's absolutely positively nothing any one in any other G5 conference can do about it.

Houston's only lost was to Texas Tech who knocked off Oklahoma State. Houston's chances are as slim as Boise State's. AAC west looks even weaker than the AAC East. Navy got knocked off by Air Force yesterday.

Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

We also have on the @Memphis, Temple, @ECU, and @Navy. Our schedule is no slouch.

Looking at Massey Composite Ranking (51 compiled so far this week) AAC is better than mwc top, middle, and bottom.
AAC #1 is better
Average ranking of top 2 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 3 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of middle 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of bottom 4 teams AAC is better

For those top five contending teams in each conference, looking at ESPN FPI's strength of schedule remaining no mwc team will have the resume to jump an AAC team ahead of them
Hawaii #69
USF #70
Memphis #73
Boise #76
UCF #77
Cincinnati #80
Houston #82
Fresno #85
Utah State #92
SDSU #96

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:26 PM)solohawks Wrote:  The MWC champ is still in the running. A 1 loss Utah St v a 1 loss MWC west champ would be in great shape should the AAC East champion drop the ball in the AAC championship game.

I think App St should be in the running too but their chances of leapfrogging AAC and MWC champ are low

Their problem is Houston could be the opponent with 1 loss as well. If it's Houston with 1 loss vs East champ with 0-1 loss, there's absolutely positively nothing any one in any other G5 conference can do about it.

Houston's only lost was to Texas Tech who knocked off Oklahoma State. Houston's chances are as slim as Boise State's. AAC west looks even weaker than the AAC East. Navy got knocked off by Air Force yesterday.

Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

And of all those teams only Fresno and Utah St have 1 loss.

Houston's schedule still has 2 teams in the top 25 left if they make the title game.

Oh, and Houston has 1 fewer loss. So sorry but no, Boise has no chance in HELL of passing Houston. NONE.

If you have 2 losses you are already done. No way all the teams ahead of you end up with 2.

(10-08-2018 04:57 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  If you have 2 losses you are already done. No way all the teams ahead of you end up with 2.

Eh, if Memphis runs the table from here on out, beats an undefeated UCF in the title game, I could see the committee taking them over 1-loss conference champs who haven't beaten a good P5 team.

That *probably* doesn't happen, even if Memphis runs the table and defeats the Defending National Champions in the CCG, but it *could*.

So I say it's a few weeks early to remove the 2-loss teams from the list. (These facts and arguments could be used to build a case that it's a few weeks to early to MAKE the list at all, but that's no fun.)

1. UCF
2. USF
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston (by virtue of having to beat one of the 3 above in a conf. champ game)
5. San Diego St.
6. Utah State
7. App St.
8. Hawaii
9. Fresno St.
10. North Texas

5-10 are debatable.

The AAC has 3 ranked teams, the rest of the G4 combined has 0 ranked teams. It is the AACs to lose.

(10-08-2018 07:33 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Eh, if Memphis runs the table from here on out, beats an undefeated UCF in the title game, I could see the committee taking them over 1-loss conference champs who haven't beaten a good P5 team.

Memphis loses are both in division. That is a much greater hurdle to surpass than just any two loses (even just 2 loses in conference).

Not saying its impossible but that is quite a problem they have to even make the conference championship game.

Chappy's Top 15 (although must be a conference champ to qualify)...

1. UCF
2. Cincinnati
3. South Florida
4. Fresno State
5. Utah State
6. San Diego State
7. Appalachian State
8. Boise State
9. Troy
10. Georgia Southern
11. UAB
12. North Texas
13. Houston
14. Hawaii
15. Buffalo

Like BullsFanInTexas says, if Houston wins the west and beats a 1- or no-loss East division team, they'll shoot up in the rankings.

right now, 4 teams 100% control their own destiny- win out and they are in. UCF, Cincy, USF, and Houston.

(10-08-2018 12:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  right now, 4 teams 100% control their own destiny- win out and they are in. UCF, Cincy, USF, and Houston.

Obviously.

In the unlikely event the AAC champ comes out with 2 losses, a 1 loss MWC champ would be next followed by a 1 loss SBC champ App or Troy, then finally a 1 loss North Texas or Buffalo, but I'm sceptical either of those last two will 1) finish with 1 loss, or 2) beat out a 2 loss AAC champ.

Statistically speaking (ESPN FPI and others), UCF and App State are the only G5 likely to finish with 1 loss, though Houston, North Texas, and Utah State are close

(10-08-2018 12:10 PM)Chappy Wrote:  Chappy's Top 15 (although must be a conference champ to qualify)...

1. UCF
2. Cincinnati
3. South Florida
4. Fresno State
5. Utah State
6. San Diego State
7. Appalachian State
8. Boise State
9. Troy
10. Georgia Southern
11. UAB
12. North Texas
13. Houston
14. Hawaii
15. Buffalo

Like BullsFanInTexas says, if Houston wins the west and beats a 1- or no-loss East division team, they'll shoot up in the rankings.

The disrespect is strong with this one. Hopefully we have a strong showing in Greenville next week and change your mind.

(10-07-2018 10:20 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:14 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 07:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Houston's only lost was to Texas Tech who knocked off Oklahoma State. Houston's chances are as slim as Boise State's. AAC west looks even weaker than the AAC East. Navy got knocked off by Air Force yesterday.

Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

We also have on the @Memphis, Temple, @ECU, and @Navy. Our schedule is no slouch.

Looking at Massey Composite Ranking (51 compiled so far this week) AAC is better than mwc top, middle, and bottom.
AAC #1 is better
Average ranking of top 2 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 3 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of middle 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of bottom 4 teams AAC is better

For those top five contending teams in each conference, looking at ESPN FPI's strength of schedule remaining no mwc team will have the resume to jump an AAC team ahead of them
Hawaii #69
USF #70
Memphis #73
Boise #76
UCF #77
Cincinnati #80
Houston #82
Fresno #85
Utah State #92
SDSU #96

You are showing Hawaii ahead of all 4 AAC schools. Remember, Boise State blew out UConn as well.MWC schools like Boise State and San Diego State lost to the top teams in the P5 conferences.

(10-08-2018 04:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:20 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:14 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

We also have on the @Memphis, Temple, @ECU, and @Navy. Our schedule is no slouch.

Looking at Massey Composite Ranking (51 compiled so far this week) AAC is better than mwc top, middle, and bottom.
AAC #1 is better
Average ranking of top 2 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 3 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of middle 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of bottom 4 teams AAC is better

For those top five contending teams in each conference, looking at ESPN FPI's strength of schedule remaining no mwc team will have the resume to jump an AAC team ahead of them
Hawaii #69
USF #70
Memphis #73
Boise #76
UCF #77
Cincinnati #80
Houston #82
Fresno #85
Utah State #92
SDSU #96

You are showing Hawaii ahead of all 4 AAC schools. Remember, Boise State blew out UConn as well.MWC schools like Boise State and San Diego State lost to the top teams in the P5 conferences.

Okst is like the 7th ranked team in the Big 12 and Stanford may not be all that either.

(10-08-2018 04:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:20 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:14 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

We also have on the @Memphis, Temple, @ECU, and @Navy. Our schedule is no slouch.

Looking at Massey Composite Ranking (51 compiled so far this week) AAC is better than mwc top, middle, and bottom.
AAC #1 is better
Average ranking of top 2 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 3 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of middle 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of bottom 4 teams AAC is better

For those top five contending teams in each conference, looking at ESPN FPI's strength of schedule remaining no mwc team will have the resume to jump an AAC team ahead of them
Hawaii #69
USF #70
Memphis #73
Boise #76
UCF #77
Cincinnati #80
Houston #82
Fresno #85
Utah State #92
SDSU #96

You are showing Hawaii ahead of all 4 AAC schools. Remember, Boise State blew out UConn as well.MWC schools like Boise State and San Diego State lost to the top teams in the P5 conferences.

Boise lost to a team ranked 7 spots below them that later proceeded to lose to Texas Tech and Iowa State. OK State isn't a top team, let alone in the Big 12. Unless the undefeated AAC schools collapse down the stretch, Boise's access bowl chances are practically zero.

(10-08-2018 04:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:20 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:14 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 10:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-07-2018 08:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  Wait a minute - didn't you just a few days ago say that Boise State would get picked because they beat Oklahoma 12 years ago? Wouldn't the same be said for Houston's win over Florida State in a NY6 bowl, which occurred more recently? Besides, a 1 loss Houston would have wins over a currently undefeated and ranked USF (note - not looking past the two games we still have to play before then) as well as a win over the AAC East winner (potentially undefeated UCF or Cincinnati). That resume is for sure going to look better than a 2-loss Boise State who dropped a home game to unranked San Diego State and got blown out by an already 2 loss Oklahoma State that still has to play 3 currently top 11 ranked teams as well as go to TCU and thus might finish the season 6-6.

I mean, it's fine to ROOT for a team, but it's usually better to at least be somewhat realistic.

USFFan

Houston only have USF and a potential AAC east champ.
Boise State still have Air Force, Utah State, BYU, UNR, Fresno State and if they win their division? They face either San Diego State, Fresno State or Hawaii winner. BSU does have the tougher schedule.

We also have on the @Memphis, Temple, @ECU, and @Navy. Our schedule is no slouch.

Looking at Massey Composite Ranking (51 compiled so far this week) AAC is better than mwc top, middle, and bottom.
AAC #1 is better
Average ranking of top 2 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 3 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of top 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of middle 4 teams AAC is better
Average ranking of bottom 4 teams AAC is better

For those top five contending teams in each conference, looking at ESPN FPI's strength of schedule remaining no mwc team will have the resume to jump an AAC team ahead of them
Hawaii #69
USF #70
Memphis #73
Boise #76
UCF #77
Cincinnati #80
Houston #82
Fresno #85
Utah State #92
SDSU #96

You are showing Hawaii ahead of all 4 AAC schools. Remember, Boise State blew out UConn as well.MWC schools like Boise State and San Diego State lost to the top teams in the P5 conferences.

In remaining strength of schedule. Given that the AAC teams are ALREADY ahead where it counts, in rankings, this miniscule SOSR difference - and it is miniscule, they are all one big mass in these rankings - is not enough to jump up. Same with Boise and the lower SOSR Cincinnati/Houston.
I'm disputing your assertion that Air Force and Nevada will magically make any of the contenders leap over an AAC team with an existing lead AND fewer losses.

Plus the point already made that the mwc "quality losses" aren't necessarily all that good.

IF the 3 undefeated AAC teams
continued on their undefeated path thru October

Your looking @ 3 teams
that would B ranked in the Top 20
going head to head in November
(If that occurs, A Huge PR 4 the AAC Conf)

Cincinnati could be 9-0 when
They play a possible 9-0 USF team at home
On November 10th

IF UCF gets past Memphis this weekend
A 10-0 UCF team
Could close out their regular season
Playing 2 Top 25 teams
Back 2 back
One undefeated the other w/ one loss
(USF/UCF game over thanksgiving weekend
could draw another high TV rating)

USF has the most difficult path
2 roll N2 November undefeated
Having to play @ Houston
On the last Saturday in October

So w/ a good chance of @ least
One Top 20 team if not 2 teams in the Top 25
in the AAC Conf Championship Game
And
W/ 3 ranked teams currently in the Top 25
The AAC is clearly the leader in the Club House
4 a New Years Day bowl