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Chances for Bowl Eligibility
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odu09 Offline
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Post: #1
Chances for Bowl Eligibility
I went through ESPN and collected their odds of winning the game (not scientific by any means) just to give a rough idea. ODU is currently 1-4 so we need to win 5 more games.

@FAU: 19.1% chance of winning
Marshall: 24.4%
@WKU: 30.2%
MTSU: 38.5%
UNT: 10.8%
VMI: 97.7%
@Rice: 58.6%

Likeliest wins, in order of tiers:

Tier 1 - Win is a lock
VMI

Tier 2 - Likely to win
@Rice

Tier 3 - Likely to lose
MTSU
@WKU

Tier 4 - Very likely to lose
Marshall
@FAU
UNT

So basically we need to win VMI, @Rice, MTSU and WKU, and then win once out of Marshall, FAU, UNT. Going to be very difficult.
(This post was last modified: 09-30-2018 06:28 AM by odu09.)
09-30-2018 06:25 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
(09-30-2018 06:25 AM)odu09 Wrote:  I went through ESPN and collected their odds of winning the game (not scientific by any means) just to give a rough idea. ODU is currently 1-4 so we need to win 5 more games.

@FAU: 19.1% chance of winning
Marshall: 24.4%
@WKU: 30.2%
MTSU: 38.5%
UNT: 10.8%
VMI: 97.7%
@Rice: 58.6%

Likeliest wins, in order of tiers:

Tier 1 - Win is a lock
VMI

Tier 2 - Likely to win
@Rice

Tier 3 - Likely to lose
MTSU
@WKU

Tier 4 - Very likely to lose
Marshall
@FAU
UNT

So basically we need to win VMI, @Rice, MTSU and WKU, and then win once out of Marshall, FAU, UNT. Going to be very difficult.

Outside of VMI, it seems it will be a ton of close games. We’ve historically dominated close games but this year have been on the wrong side.

The chances are very slim. I dont expect to be a huge underdog in any of those games. 3-1 at home and stealinng either FAU or WKy would do it. Dont think either of those teams is as good as last year.

Edit/“: those odds from Espn look off.... 10% at home to NOrth Texas would imply them being a huge favorite. Not sure if they are 14 point fav on road.
(This post was last modified: 09-30-2018 10:10 AM by Gilesfan.)
09-30-2018 10:07 AM
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TheDancinMonarch Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
0
09-30-2018 11:15 AM
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DaBigBlue Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
1.2% chance...same chance as beating VaTech.
09-30-2018 11:24 AM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
I don't know that I'd say I'm optimistic about ODU's chances, but I think yesterday showed that there's no such thing as a sure-fire win or loss in CUSA this season. Everybody's beatable, everybody's capable of beating dat ass. So while I have doubts that the Monarchs will get to six wins, I'm not going to act like Florida Atlantic and North Texas are Alabama and Georgia either.
09-30-2018 12:34 PM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
Near zero, but not impossible. If we had beaten ECU theyd be a lot better. Worst part is if we had played like we did at ECU against Charlotte and FIU we’d probably be in good shape with 3 wins. As it is, I expect 2 or 3 wins total. 4 or 5 would be a huge turnaround.
(This post was last modified: 09-30-2018 02:39 PM by monarx.)
09-30-2018 02:39 PM
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Petey Hodge Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
VT was our Super Bowl..... I’m still content
09-30-2018 09:12 PM
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Blue Moon Rising Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
WHY????
09-30-2018 09:36 PM
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cmett003 Online
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RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
Zero, zip, nada!
10-01-2018 07:35 AM
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jumpshooter Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
This team isn't very good. Some talent, for sure, but the line isn't good enough, the QB isn't good enough, the DC isn't nearly good enough and we don't play with poise.

we're not going anywhere but home for the holidays. Get a grip folks.
10-01-2018 08:22 AM
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blueandsilver Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
As much as I would like to see it happen, don't think the horrific start can be overcome, even with my "homer" rose colored glasses on. The VT game was fantastic and a bit magical, but the three "egg laying" games prior to that and the (albeit close) loss to ECU pretty much made the post season a long shot at best. But hey, VT was a long shot too -- that's why the games have to be played. So let's give it the best possible shot and make some noise.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2018 08:31 AM by blueandsilver.)
10-01-2018 08:30 AM
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T-Mac Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
(10-01-2018 08:22 AM)jumpshooter Wrote:  This team isn't very good. Some talent, for sure, but the line isn't good enough, the QB isn't good enough, the DC isn't nearly good enough and we don't play with poise.

we're not going anywhere but home for the holidays. Get a grip folks.

IMO, the talent on the field is plenty good enough to get to 6 wins. I've mostly been disappointed in the coaching to date. We had the wrong QB starting the first three games. If Blake was the QB, I think we'd be sitting at 3-1. If the coaches didn't blow ECU down the stretch, we should be 4-0.
10-01-2018 08:36 AM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
(10-01-2018 08:36 AM)T-Mac Wrote:  
(10-01-2018 08:22 AM)jumpshooter Wrote:  This team isn't very good. Some talent, for sure, but the line isn't good enough, the QB isn't good enough, the DC isn't nearly good enough and we don't play with poise.

we're not going anywhere but home for the holidays. Get a grip folks.

IMO, the talent on the field is plenty good enough to get to 6 wins. I've mostly been disappointed in the coaching to date. We had the wrong QB starting the first three games. If Blake was the QB, I think we'd be sitting at 3-1. If the coaches didn't blow ECU down the stretch, we should be 4-0.

I don't think anything could have overcome that LU debacle. We might win 3 out of 4, but on that day we were terrible and they were great. Otherwise I agree with you. We should be at least 3-2 right now... but we're not. And the easiest part of our FBS schedule is now in the past. There are hopefully 2 or 3 more wins out there, but I don't see much hope for 5. The ECU game was practically "must-win" to keep any bowl hope alive.
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2018 08:46 AM by monarx.)
10-01-2018 08:44 AM
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odu09 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
Those losses to Charlotte and FIU are really going to bite us hard
10-01-2018 08:44 AM
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Retroview1955 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Chances for Bowl Eligibility
I think we will make it. We beat VT and technically ECU too. I think we'll be fine in conference play. We'll make it.
10-01-2018 11:01 AM
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