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Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
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17Huskies Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-25-2018 10:10 PM)NIU1981 Wrote:  I agree with 7 that the schedule is much tougher than it used to be. I also agree with BDB5yp that our offense has been atrocious so far this year. Both are true. The EMU game will tell us a lot about this team. I still think they have enough talent to win the MAC (sorry, MAC Conference), but they have to figure it out on offense starting right now.

My son and I were talking about how the struggle against FSU was probably better for this team's development than housing a bad FCS team at home. Childers was forced to make a lot of throws under duress and he did some good things. Veloz was pushed right into his lap on his perfect TD throw to Wesley, and his TD throw to Brown had zero margin for error. Let's hope he and the team can use that experience as a springboard to better things.

For the record, I like scheduling P5 teams and wouldn't mind four each year. Get big checks, excite the recruits, test the team prior to conference play.

If you look at what we 'thought' we had coming into the season, I'd say the O-line has been the biggest disappointment. I didn't expect Childers to be great or even very good. We knew we had gaps at WR, etc. But it seemed like the O-line would carry it a bit. Now...they have faced some very good front 7's...so I'll wait to see how they do it MAC play, but really thought they'd hold up better.
09-26-2018 12:28 AM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #22
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-25-2018 07:32 PM)7 Wrote:  Short of a post before the opener this year, I really haven't read this board too much since the 2nd half of the CMU game last year. Naturally the latest post is in a thread created by VegasHuskie about apathy. I see nothing has changed.

Lets rewind to September 22nd, 2012. It is a picture perfect day in Huskie Stadium. Northern Illinois University, the defending MAC Champions, posted a thrilling victory at Army the week before. The Huskies, lead by future Heisman trophy finalist Jordan Lynch, coached by future North Carolina State head coach Dave Doeren would avenge a defeat from the year prior against the Kansas Jayhawks. Just over 3 months later, they would play in the Discover Orange Bowl.

The attendance that day? A season high 18,374.

The biggest problem in the world of Huskie football those days was home scheduling. The overriding excuse by this board was that Jeff Compher's inability to get quality opponents to DeKalb combined with playing the defacto MAC West Championship game (which 17,183 to DeKalb that year) was the reason for the lack of attendance to DeKalb.

Lets fast forward to August 1st, 2014 as now NIU Athletic Director Sean Frazier concludes "Schedulepalooza" by announcing both Utah and Maryland will travel to Huskie Stadium in the future. Other games included in "Schedulepalooza" were home and homes with the University of South Florida , Vanderbilt, and San Diego State University. NIU fans were asking for an upgraded schedule for years, and Sean Frazier delivered.

NIU has now played 3 of those matchups in Huskie Stadium, two on beautiful Saturday afternoons/evenings and one Friday night game. The reported attendance figures for those games:

2016 San Diego State: 14,513
2017 Boston College: 16,421
2018 Utah: 16,762

Average attendance: 15,899

So what's the excuse now?

NIU currently sits at 1-3 having lost to three P5 opponents, which has somehow sent NIU fans into a panic and have people calling for Rod Carey's job again. That seems to completely ignore that NIU, as a program, is 13-63-1 against P5 schools all-time and more specifically is 9-48-1 all-time against the Big Ten, PAC-12, and ACC, the 3 conferences they've played this year. For those of you scoring at home, 4 of those 9 wins have come with Rod Carey at the helm. Oh boy, better fire the coach!

Lets rewind to November 30th, 2012. Dave Doeren has just capped off easily the most successful run as head coach in the history of NIU, and in only two years two boot. Their win over Kent State has given the program it's second of back to back MAC Championships and under 48 hours later would earn a trip to the Orange Bowl. Doeren finishes his career at NIU 23-4 with 2 MAC Championships, and this poster's favorite football coach ever.

A common theory I hear on twitter is that Rod Carey can't beat halfway decent teams, particularly out of conference. Let's take a quick look at the greatest coach in NIU's history (Doreen's) out of conference results, more specifically against FBS oppoents.

2011
W 49-26 over Army in Huskie Stadium
Army's record in 2011: 2-9
L 45-42 @ Kansas(!!!!!!)
Kansas's 2011 record: 2-10, with NIU being their only FBS victory
L 49-7 against Wisconsin at Soldier Field. Holy hell, thank god this didn't happen in a bowl game!

2012
L 18-17 to Iowa at Soldier Field
Iowa's 2012 record: 4-8
W 41-40 @ Army
Army's 2012 record: 2-10
W 30-23 over Kansas in Huskie Stadium
Kansas's 2011 record: 1-11 (0 FBS wins that year)

Of his 6 OOC FBS games, he got rolled by an awesome Wisconsin team, lost to a bad Iowa team, lost to an AWFUL Kansas team, crushed an awful Army team in DeKalb, beat an awful Army team by 1, and be an equally awful Kansas team in DeKalb by 7. Maybe, just maybe, beating P5 teams is pretty difficult. Wonder how those OOC records would have looked if he had to play @ Iowa, @ Florida State, and Utah at home in the same season.

It's almost as if not all schedules are created equal.

Wait a minute, wait a minute, it's not just about the record it's about him making awful in game decisions!

Let's rewind to September 2nd, 2010. It's a warm Thursday evening in Ames, Iowa and the Northern Illinois Huskies led by Jerry Kill are taking on an Iowa State Cyclones team. Coach Kill decides to bench 2 year starter Chandler Harnish in favor of DeMarcus Grady. Grady process to go 14-29 for 93 yards, 3 INTs, and eventual 5-7 Iowa State beats NIU 27-10. NIU would go back to Harnish the following week who is now considered one of the 5-10 best players in NIU history.

But that's just one mistake Kill made! Let's flashback to December 28th, 2008. In Kill's first year, the Huskies are facing off in the Independence Bowl against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. With just over 45 seconds left and no timeouts, NIU has the ball needing to drive the length of the field for a touchdown. What's the play call? A QB draw! Harnish gets tackled in bounds, effectively ending the game. Worth noting, of course, that Jerry Kill didn't call plays, but that would never stop somebody from blaming the coach now, would it?

Jerry Kill would finish his career at NIU 23-16 and 18-6 in the MAC (for those of you bad at math, that means he went 5-10 out of conference). Not bad! He also lost every bowl game he coached in his career at NIU and Minnesota (0-5).

Joe Novak took over one of the worst FBS programs in all of the land. I won't do Joe the disservice of including his first handful of years which clearly would drag down his record. Let's talk about post 2003 NIU.

In his final 4 years as head coach, NIU posts a 25-23 overall record. Hey, won a bowl game, though! Overall, Novak 63-76 and 47-38 in the MAC. Math is hard, so for those of you scoring at home, that means Coach Joe posted a whopping 16-38 record in non-conference play.

Yes, both Joe Novak and Jerry Kill lost at least twice as many non conference games as they won, and I didn't even take out the FCS wins.

That brings us to now.
Since the start of 2016, Rod Carey is 14-15 as head coach, which admittedly is not great. However, over that same stretch of time NIU is 12-5 in MAC play which is still really solid. What, oh what could have possibly changed?

Record of FBS OOC opponents 2010-2012
38-73

Record of FBS OOC opponents 2016-2018(BYU not included)
58-32

I'll do you one better. The only two non-conference teams NIU played in 2010-2012 to finish above .500 were Illinois in 2010 and Wisconsin in 2011 (they lost both of those games, for the record). The only OOC team NIU has played in the last 3 years to finish below .500 or currently be below .500 is Nebraska last year.

The Florida State game last week was a late replacement for an FCS home game because NIU desperately needs the money in part because nobody goes to the games. If NIU isn't desperate for money because of a fan base which didn't care even in the height of the program's success, in all likelihood NIU is sitting at 2-2 (1-0) right now and all is right in the world. Maybe, just maybe, when you're thinking of reasons why the football program has "regressed," point the finger at a fan base who thought they "deserved" a better home schedule and cared more about seeing "marquee" opponents in Huskie Stadium rather than seeing their team win.

Any number you can point to, Rod Carey is a perfectly fine coach. He's 45-27 and 33-8 in the MAC. Yes, that means 12-19 OOC, which gives him a much better winning percentage out of conference than either Jerry Kill, Joe Novak, or likely any coach in history not named Dave Doeren.

But he can't win big games! In the program's history, Carey has won:
25% of NIU's MAC Championships
Been the coach in 3 of the 7 MAC Championship appearances
Won 4 of their 7 all-time victories against the Big Ten

Instead of blaming Carey for not living up to your unrealistic expectations, perhaps, the issue you.

If you are about done Mr Carey, there is a lot to take issue with here. Only have time for a couple right now. You mention a so- so attendance game which featured a FUTURE Heisman finalist. So? None of us knew that at the time. We knew that he didn't do much against Iowa, and not much else.

The only MAC championship Carey won was in 2014. We faced Toledo's 3rd string QB, and BG's backup, NOT Matt Johnson, who destroyed us the year before and the year after. And that was with players Carey inherited.

And don't get me started on our bowl results.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2018 12:31 AM by NIU007.)
09-26-2018 12:29 AM
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NIUTrekker Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
Thanks 7 for the research and points. It does help to put things in perspective. I do think we tend to glorify past coaches more than desreved. However, I believe the main concern now is that we were a nationally recognized team that has been trending down. Sure, NIU has had to deal with significant injuries and losing recruits on the eve of signing day. But, how long and far do we trend down. At this point, we want to win regardless of the opponent and it's not happening as quickly as fans want. The question now is, will we be happy if we win enough to win the MAC?

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09-26-2018 05:40 AM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #24
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
Also, when looking at Novak why did you leave out 2000-2003?
09-26-2018 06:31 AM
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klake87 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
After that long detailed synopsis of NIU football over the years, I am going to Facebook to see the infamous "I an never drinking again!" post
09-26-2018 08:09 AM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #26
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
The P5 teams that Carey has beaten since Lynch left:

Northwestern (4-7, 2-5 in Big 14)
Nebraska (4-8,3-6 in Big 14)

Novak won 3 P5 games in one year, and one of those was ranked. (lost to Maryland and Iowa State the next year on the road - further evidence that you need to get the occasional game at home - and those games were close, not complete clunkers). And won the only bowl game that was available at that time. That one year did more to revitalize the program than the 5+ years that Carey has had. Those are the games that people remember. They also remember going to the Orange Bowl, which was with Doeren.

Doeren won the MAC both years he was coach. One of the games was against a ranked Kent State team. (You can argue about the ranking, but they weren't missing their QB like BG was the one year that NIU won the MACC with Carey). The loss to Wisconsin was disappointing but I don't think we played anyone as good as that under Carey - you can argue Ohio State - but their QBs were nowhere near as good as Russell Wilson. Doeren got a bunch of his talent from Kill so I have to give Kill some credit there (and got Harnish from Novak).

Also, regarding the schedule, I have no problem with this year's schedule, we needed the money from FSU. I didn't expect to be any better than 1-3 from OOC games and at least an even shot to be 0-4 - but mostly because we didn't have a passing game against decent teams last year and I wasn't confident we'd have one this year. And it helps to have home games against P5 teams because you have a better chance of winning. Doesn't mean you will win, but it's a very good deal if you pull it off. After more than a decade of horrific OOC home scheduling, I think the fanbase deserves at least that much.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2018 09:25 AM by NIU007.)
09-26-2018 09:17 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 09:17 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  The P5 teams that Carey has beaten since Lynch left:

Northwestern (4-7, 2-5 in Big 14)
Nebraska (4-8,3-6 in Big 14)

Novak won 3 P5 games in one year, and one of those was ranked. (lost to Maryland and Iowa State the next year on the road - further evidence that you need to get the occasional game at home - and those games were close, not complete clunkers). And won the only bowl game that was available at that time. That one year did more to revitalize the program than the 5+ years that Carey has had. Those are the games that people remember. They also remember going to the Orange Bowl, which was with Doeren.

Doeren won the MAC both years he was coach. One of the games was against a ranked Kent State team. (You can argue about the ranking, but they weren't missing their QB like BG was the one year that NIU won the MACC with Carey). The loss to Wisconsin was disappointing but I don't think we played anyone as good as that under Carey - you can argue Ohio State - but their QBs were nowhere near as good as Russell Wilson. Doeren got a bunch of his talent from Kill so I have to give Kill some credit there (and got Harnish from Novak).

Also, regarding the schedule, I have no problem with this year's schedule, we needed the money from FSU. I didn't expect to be any better than 1-3 from OOC games and at least an even shot to be 0-4 - but mostly because we didn't have a passing game against decent teams last year and I wasn't confident we'd have one this year. And it helps to have home games against P5 teams because you have a better chance of winning. Doesn't mean you will win, but it's a very good deal if you pull it off. After more than a decade of horrific OOC home scheduling, I think the fanbase deserves at least that much.

Carey deserves credit for those wins, that is by far his biggest accomplishment, but the thing that terrifies me about Carey is just watching his performance as a fan as a function of change with respect to time. He is a complete and total shell of a coach that he was the day he went into Northwestern and got an upset. I think this is two-fold, to be honest his weaknesses did not fully come out on display during and shortly after the Jordan Lynch era. The talent level was far superior than it is now. Secondly, you can see crystal clearly in real time the diminishment in his confidence and the damaging effects it has on the teams he coaches. I think its rare that someone could suffer from this much lack of confidence and have no conviction in what they are doing, and turn it around to be a whole new coach. That's why I think NIU needs to go in a different direction, the longer you let this thing fall apart, the harder it will be to dig out of. Unfortunately I think NIU has an even more urgent need to go in a different direction above Carey. I know in politics we always hear about Jeff Sessions recusing himself from Attorney General because of Russia. Did Frazier recuse himself at some point of AD duties, did I miss it?
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2018 09:46 AM by MaddDawgz02.)
09-26-2018 09:43 AM
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NIU1981 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 12:28 AM)17Huskies Wrote:  
(09-25-2018 10:10 PM)NIU1981 Wrote:  I agree with 7 that the schedule is much tougher than it used to be. I also agree with BDB5yp that our offense has been atrocious so far this year. Both are true. The EMU game will tell us a lot about this team. I still think they have enough talent to win the MAC (sorry, MAC Conference), but they have to figure it out on offense starting right now.

My son and I were talking about how the struggle against FSU was probably better for this team's development than housing a bad FCS team at home. Childers was forced to make a lot of throws under duress and he did some good things. Veloz was pushed right into his lap on his perfect TD throw to Wesley, and his TD throw to Brown had zero margin for error. Let's hope he and the team can use that experience as a springboard to better things.

For the record, I like scheduling P5 teams and wouldn't mind four each year. Get big checks, excite the recruits, test the team prior to conference play.

If you look at what we 'thought' we had coming into the season, I'd say the O-line has been the biggest disappointment. I didn't expect Childers to be great or even very good. We knew we had gaps at WR, etc. But it seemed like the O-line would carry it a bit. Now...they have faced some very good front 7's...so I'll wait to see how they do it MAC play, but really thought they'd hold up better.

I agree with this. I thought the O line would be a lot better than it has been so far. They've been working a lot of guys in there due to injuries and performance issues. Hopefully they find the right formula.
09-26-2018 10:12 AM
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niu50yrdline Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
Well said 7. Good insights and research. Most rational thing I've read on this board in a while.
09-26-2018 10:30 AM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #30
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 10:30 AM)niu50yrdline Wrote:  Well said 7. Good insights and research. Most rational thing I've read on this board in a while.

If you don't mind the exaggerations and overstating his case.

One more thing - 7 was among the people that said we COULDN'T get P5 teams to play in DeKalb, that it wasn't going to happen. This despite our arguments that not only did Toledo do that regularly, but Jiff basically admitted that he wasn't even trying to. Then STF did it in his first year in DeKalb. And I suspect we got more fans for Utah than we would have gotten for Presbyterian or Cal Poly - just a guess, I could be wrong.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2018 11:29 AM by NIU007.)
09-26-2018 11:03 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 10:12 AM)NIU1981 Wrote:  
(09-26-2018 12:28 AM)17Huskies Wrote:  
(09-25-2018 10:10 PM)NIU1981 Wrote:  I agree with 7 that the schedule is much tougher than it used to be. I also agree with BDB5yp that our offense has been atrocious so far this year. Both are true. The EMU game will tell us a lot about this team. I still think they have enough talent to win the MAC (sorry, MAC Conference), but they have to figure it out on offense starting right now.

My son and I were talking about how the struggle against FSU was probably better for this team's development than housing a bad FCS team at home. Childers was forced to make a lot of throws under duress and he did some good things. Veloz was pushed right into his lap on his perfect TD throw to Wesley, and his TD throw to Brown had zero margin for error. Let's hope he and the team can use that experience as a springboard to better things.

For the record, I like scheduling P5 teams and wouldn't mind four each year. Get big checks, excite the recruits, test the team prior to conference play.

If you look at what we 'thought' we had coming into the season, I'd say the O-line has been the biggest disappointment. I didn't expect Childers to be great or even very good. We knew we had gaps at WR, etc. But it seemed like the O-line would carry it a bit. Now...they have faced some very good front 7's...so I'll wait to see how they do it MAC play, but really thought they'd hold up better.

I agree with this. I thought the O line would be a lot better than it has been so far. They've been working a lot of guys in there due to injuries and performance issues. Hopefully they find the right formula.

I disagree with the line assessment. They haven’t been perfect but a lot of the issues have been at qb. Line is giving plenty of time to throw. Wide receivers aren’t getting open and qb isn’t stepping up in the pocket. Scrambling to the outside has caused some sacks but the pocket has been there.
09-26-2018 11:49 AM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
I only can assume 7 has not watched recent NIU football games. To not come to the conclusion Carey has cost this team games is absolutely ridiculous. Id argue he is a bottom 10 coach in FBS right now
09-26-2018 12:41 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
The last few seasons were just a good qb away from being successful. A good qb changes your offense immeasurable. Saying that doesn’t mean Carey hasn’t made some bone headed calls and personnel moves. Or that he oversees that mess at offense. But good qbs make messy offenses run well. If you’re blaming Carey’s in game decisions for losing games, that also means you believe NIU has the talent to win those games. That in turn means you support Carey as a recruiter.

Carey IMO is average. That’s all he is and why no one else wants him. Who would want an average Mac coach? He didn’t ruin NIU. He does good. He does bad. Im going to remind you all of something I repeat over and over here in response to the “program is being ruined from the greatness it was built into” crowd. - NIUs glory years were built on 5 straight seasons of the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country. Almost every season our SOS was one or two spots from the very bottom. Combine that with the 2 best QBs we’ve ever had and that right there is your - NIU is an elite G5 nonsense. We beat NO ONE in that stretch. Since our SOS has moved up quite a bit and we’ve struggled at QB our winning has declined. Crazy how that works. That doesn’t cover the times Carey makes major mistakes, but it’s the major reason NIU has declined in wins.
09-26-2018 12:46 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 05:40 AM)NIUTrekker Wrote:  Thanks 7 for the research and points. It does help to put things in perspective. I do think we tend to glorify past coaches more than desreved. However, I believe the main concern now is that we were a nationally recognized team that has been trending down. Sure, NIU has had to deal with significant injuries and losing recruits on the eve of signing day. But, how long and far do we trend down. At this point, we want to win regardless of the opponent and it's not happening as quickly as fans want. The question now is, will we be happy if we win enough to win the MAC?

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I'll say that while majority of fans would not be happy with a MAC championship, I think it would mean something. The MAC is a decent conference this year and it would be an accomplishment to win the conference. Where NIU football is at presently, I see no chance of that happening however. I think the football program is approaching a dangerous time when if current trajectory continues, we are looking at bottom 20 status for a prolonged period
09-26-2018 12:47 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 12:46 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  The last few seasons were just a good qb away from being successful. A good qb changes your offense immeasurable. Saying that doesn’t mean Carey hasn’t made some bone headed calls and personnel moves. Or that he oversees that mess at offense. But good qbs make messy offenses run well. If you’re blaming Carey’s in game decisions for losing games, that also means you believe NIU has the talent to win those games. That in turn means you support Carey as a recruiter.

Carey IMO is average. That’s all he is and why no one else wants him. Who would want an average Mac coach? He didn’t ruin NIU. He does good. He does bad. Im going to remind you all of something I repeat over and over here in response to the “program is being ruined from the greatness it was built into” crowd. - NIUs glory years were built on 5 straight seasons of the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country. Almost every season our SOS was one or two spots from the very bottom. Combine that with the 2 best QBs we’ve ever had and that right there is your - NIU is an elite G5 nonsense. We beat NO ONE in that stretch. Since our SOS has moved up quite a bit and we’ve struggled at QB our winning has declined. Crazy how that works. That doesn’t cover the times Carey makes major mistakes, but it’s the major reason NIU has declined in wins.

Even with the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country, NIU was able to win multiple conference titles. Carey has one in five years. None since 2014 which means his senior class doesn’t have one. It isn’t just a fall from grace, it’s a complete collapse. NIU is the betting favorite to win the MAC this year. Going one for six in conference titles is inexcusable. Conference title or bust for him. Thank God his contract is expiring so we don’t have to hear the same “we can’t afford to fire him” argument anymore.
09-26-2018 12:55 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 12:55 PM)PrideinthePack2 Wrote:  
(09-26-2018 12:46 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  The last few seasons were just a good qb away from being successful. A good qb changes your offense immeasurable. Saying that doesn’t mean Carey hasn’t made some bone headed calls and personnel moves. Or that he oversees that mess at offense. But good qbs make messy offenses run well. If you’re blaming Carey’s in game decisions for losing games, that also means you believe NIU has the talent to win those games. That in turn means you support Carey as a recruiter.

Carey IMO is average. That’s all he is and why no one else wants him. Who would want an average Mac coach? He didn’t ruin NIU. He does good. He does bad. Im going to remind you all of something I repeat over and over here in response to the “program is being ruined from the greatness it was built into” crowd. - NIUs glory years were built on 5 straight seasons of the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country. Almost every season our SOS was one or two spots from the very bottom. Combine that with the 2 best QBs we’ve ever had and that right there is your - NIU is an elite G5 nonsense. We beat NO ONE in that stretch. Since our SOS has moved up quite a bit and we’ve struggled at QB our winning has declined. Crazy how that works. That doesn’t cover the times Carey makes major mistakes, but it’s the major reason NIU has declined in wins.

Even with the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country, NIU was able to win multiple conference titles. Carey has one in five years. None since 2014 which means his senior class doesn’t have one. It isn’t just a fall from grace, it’s a complete collapse. NIU is the betting favorite to win the MAC this year. Going one for six in conference titles is inexcusable. Conference title or bust for him. Thank God his contract is expiring so we don’t have to hear the same “we can’t afford to fire him” argument anymore.

The only way Carey will not be here forever is if Frazier is relieved of duty. Mark my words, as long as STF is at NIU, coaching change will not be made.
09-26-2018 12:58 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 12:55 PM)PrideinthePack2 Wrote:  
(09-26-2018 12:46 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  The last few seasons were just a good qb away from being successful. A good qb changes your offense immeasurable. Saying that doesn’t mean Carey hasn’t made some bone headed calls and personnel moves. Or that he oversees that mess at offense. But good qbs make messy offenses run well. If you’re blaming Carey’s in game decisions for losing games, that also means you believe NIU has the talent to win those games. That in turn means you support Carey as a recruiter.

Carey IMO is average. That’s all he is and why no one else wants him. Who would want an average Mac coach? He didn’t ruin NIU. He does good. He does bad. Im going to remind you all of something I repeat over and over here in response to the “program is being ruined from the greatness it was built into” crowd. - NIUs glory years were built on 5 straight seasons of the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country. Almost every season our SOS was one or two spots from the very bottom. Combine that with the 2 best QBs we’ve ever had and that right there is your - NIU is an elite G5 nonsense. We beat NO ONE in that stretch. Since our SOS has moved up quite a bit and we’ve struggled at QB our winning has declined. Crazy how that works. That doesn’t cover the times Carey makes major mistakes, but it’s the major reason NIU has declined in wins.

Even with the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country, NIU was able to win multiple conference titles. Carey has one in five years. None since 2014 which means his senior class doesn’t have one. It isn’t just a fall from grace, it’s a complete collapse. NIU is the betting favorite to win the MAC this year. Going one for six in conference titles is inexcusable. Conference title or bust for him. Thank God his contract is expiring so we don’t have to hear the same “we can’t afford to fire him” argument anymore.

Yes. They won 2. Lost 1. And failed to make another. So 2/4. And as it’s been proven on this board many times the top rated qbs are the only ones who win the MACC. In fact, the lowest rated qb to win a macc in the last dozen years is Drew Hare in 2014. It should be no surprise that Harnish and Lynch were the top rated QBs when they won. Or that when Lynch lost in 13 he lost to a higher rated qb in Matt Johnson. Yes, we can blame Carey for not getting a top qb in. But I’m not going to blame him for not winning a MACC with Ryan graham or Marcus Childers. He needs to find or develope a qb asap if he wants to win a MACC.
09-26-2018 01:13 PM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #38
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
(09-26-2018 01:13 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(09-26-2018 12:55 PM)PrideinthePack2 Wrote:  
(09-26-2018 12:46 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  The last few seasons were just a good qb away from being successful. A good qb changes your offense immeasurable. Saying that doesn’t mean Carey hasn’t made some bone headed calls and personnel moves. Or that he oversees that mess at offense. But good qbs make messy offenses run well. If you’re blaming Carey’s in game decisions for losing games, that also means you believe NIU has the talent to win those games. That in turn means you support Carey as a recruiter.

Carey IMO is average. That’s all he is and why no one else wants him. Who would want an average Mac coach? He didn’t ruin NIU. He does good. He does bad. Im going to remind you all of something I repeat over and over here in response to the “program is being ruined from the greatness it was built into” crowd. - NIUs glory years were built on 5 straight seasons of the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country. Almost every season our SOS was one or two spots from the very bottom. Combine that with the 2 best QBs we’ve ever had and that right there is your - NIU is an elite G5 nonsense. We beat NO ONE in that stretch. Since our SOS has moved up quite a bit and we’ve struggled at QB our winning has declined. Crazy how that works. That doesn’t cover the times Carey makes major mistakes, but it’s the major reason NIU has declined in wins.

Even with the WEAKEST SCHEDULE in the country, NIU was able to win multiple conference titles. Carey has one in five years. None since 2014 which means his senior class doesn’t have one. It isn’t just a fall from grace, it’s a complete collapse. NIU is the betting favorite to win the MAC this year. Going one for six in conference titles is inexcusable. Conference title or bust for him. Thank God his contract is expiring so we don’t have to hear the same “we can’t afford to fire him” argument anymore.

Yes. They won 2. Lost 1. And failed to make another. So 2/4. And as it’s been proven on this board many times the top rated qbs are the only ones who win the MACC. In fact, the lowest rated qb to win a macc in the last dozen years is Drew Hare in 2014. It should be no surprise that Harnish and Lynch were the top rated QBs when they won. Or that when Lynch lost in 13 he lost to a higher rated qb in Matt Johnson. Yes, we can blame Carey for not getting a top qb in. But I’m not going to blame him for not winning a MACC with Ryan graham or Marcus Childers. He needs to find or develope a qb asap if he wants to win a MACC.

I would blame him for having to rely on someone like Ryan Graham or a freshman (or this year, sophomore) Childers as the best option. Why is that Toledo has one of their good QBs graduate and the very next year their new QB is running their offense effectively and putting 60 points on the board?

And to your point, they only won with Hare because both Toledo and BG were missing their starting QB that year.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2018 01:20 PM by NIU007.)
09-26-2018 01:18 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
If the subject is fan regression........ Who the heck wants to go watch a football team that doesn’t know how to score? The problem isn’t the current fans and diehards. The problem is we can’t get new fans, because our brand of football is boring and sloppy right now. You bring a potential new fan to the game and the offense from the coaching to the players can’t get out of their own way. I love how our defense goes about their business. You would think that our offense would be better since they’re tested at practice. I call a better offensive gameplan than Carey when I’m playing Madden football. I’ll be glad to see his replacement. Fire Carey, Hire Knowles as head coach, and go get a young enthusiastic Offensive coordinator who knows how to develop players on offense and call plays.
09-26-2018 01:20 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Regression, the fan base, and who is to "blame"
I think somebody else mentioned it, but if you're going to compare - Kill and Doeren both got offers from bigger programs, and Carey did not - if he did he would gone. So we are not the only ones that think Carey compares poorly with them.
09-26-2018 01:22 PM
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